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GM:
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I am a really big fan of Chuck Fletcher as a GM. Now in hockey, things don't always work out like planned...there are a lot of variables. So I try to spend a lot of time listening to a GM talk about his thought process and his logic for why he makes the moves he does. If I consistently agree with their thought process and their logic for why they do what they do, I think that's indicative of a good GM--one who shows an understanding of not only the present, but the future and a grasp of what he's trying to accomplish and how it fits into the bigger picture, both now and in the future.
Judging a GM in any other way than his thought process is the fallacy of hindsight. Chuck Fletcher is easily one of the best GMs in the league who's only fault has really been not being able to acquire a true legit PPG player. But there are probably 5-10 of those guys in the NHL and the only way to get them really is to pick in the top 5, that's a slight fault, but Fletcher has been able to make up for it in other ways.
What are the ways a GM can acquire talent?
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Homegrown talent:
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Chuck Fletcher is a very good GM. He is very good at acquiring and developing young players through a variety of avenues. It’s very important to be able to consistently develop players because young players are cheap and controllable. Entry level contracts are designed for teams to be able to, if they do it right, get a lot of value out of very cheap players.
The Wild currently have drafted and/or developed a big percentage of their players on their NHL roster.
The most obvious way to acquire young talent is through the draft.
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The Draft:
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Chuck Fletcher has drafted Wild forwards Charlie Coyle (1st), Mikael Granlund (1st), Jason Zucker (2nd), and Erik Haula (7th)...the Wild also drafted Koivu under a previous regime. These players currently are 5 out of the Wild’s top 7 forward scorers.
Fletcher has also drafted a huge chunk of the Wild D-Core… Jonas Brodin (1st), Marco Scandella (2nd), and Matt Dumba (1st). All of these guys have shown that they can play 20 min/night for the Wild which is impressive drafting.
As you can see Fletcher thus far has had the majority of his success drafting in the early rounds, but he has proven very skilled at using other avenues to get a lot of young talent.
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Acquiring Young Talent Outside The Draft
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Drafting is one way to acquire and develop talent and that is something Fletcher does well. But another way is understanding other channels to acquire young talent.
The Wild have signed both Jared Spurgeon, Christian Folin, and Mike Rielly as Free Agents who were drafted by teams other than the Wild, but for various reasons decided not to play for the team that drafted them. Another example of this is Justin Fontaine who was a solid contributor for the Wild despite being undrafted.
Spurgeon was drafted in the 6th round by the Islanders, but cut before he could make their team. Fletcher has shown a willingness to not only have an understanding of the players on his team and their potential, but potential steals from other teams--which is the mark of a good GM.
Rielly was drafted in the 8th round and Folin was undrafted, both were heavily bidded upon by other teams as they were free agents taking unique development paths and Fletcher was able to use yet another avenue to get talent.
Fletcher has also shown the willingness and understanding of his competition by showing the willingness to try and get value through trades. Trading Cal Clutterbuck for Nino Niederreiter is an example of this. Fletcher time and time again shows that he has a really good process for making moves and trying to make his team better.
Fletcher’s league-wide approach and ability to look at all avenues for talent has netted the Wild Nino Niederreiter, Christian Folin, Jared Spurgeon, and Mike Rielly as NHL caliber players. Niedderreiter, Folin, Spurgeon, and Rielly have all found success jumping into the Wild’s development system.
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Supplementing With Outside Talent
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There are two main ways for a team to supplement their homegrown talent that is through trades and through the draft.
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Free Agency
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A good GM has the ability to recruit top talent to their team on the open market. To do this, a GM must show the ability to pitch to Free Agents about why they should come to their team over all of the other teams in the league--this is a skill that not all GMs have.
It’s telling that a GM has a good plan and ability to use his resources and situation well if he is able to recruit top talent.
However, a GM must recruit FA’s by overpaying and taking on contracts that are bad value. This destroys a team.
Fletcher has shown the ability to recruit top talent to try and push a team to the next level. Fletcher has been able to recruit top talent and veterans to the Wild in Ryan Suter, Zach Parise, Eric Staal, and also Thomas Vanek.
More importantly, he’s been able to do so without being the highest bidder on the market. Suter, Parise, Staal, and Vanek have all come to the Wild despite other teams offering them more money and more years.
Which is another thing Fletcher does well, Fletcher has done a good job of signing veterans like Staal and Vanek to the Wild and not singing them to long contracts where they are deadweight for a team. Parise and Suter in my mind are a slightly different scenario.
Fletcher has also done a pretty solid job of consistently bringing in solid veterans for cheap that do a good job on the 4th line/last pairing.
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Trades
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I’m of the opinion that I want my GM to generally be more aggressive than not in making trades because the flip side is self-defeating. Trades may not work out in hindsight, but they never work out if you don’t try them. I think listening to a GMs process for making trades is important. I almost always hear Fletcher have a good understanding of why he’s trying to make the moves that he does...I think Fletcher also shows a good understanding of the value of draft picks and prospects and the delicate balance between planning for the future and trying to make the NHL roster better now.
Now I know this is where a lot of Wild fans critique Fletcher. Fletcher did give up a lot of value (ultimately probably lost value) for Matt Moulson, McCormick, Bergenheim, Cam Barker, and even Pominville cost a lot of value. But let’s look at things on balance.
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Fletchers Trade Resume
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Fletcher has traded…
Brent Burns, Nick Leddy, Cal Clutterbuck, Martin Havlat, Kim Johnsson, Johan Larsson, Matt Hackett, 1 1st rounder, 4 2nd rounder, 3 3rd rounders, 4th rounder for Cam Barker, Devin Setoguchi (2nd rounder), Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter, Devan Dubnyk, Jason Pominville, Heatley, Moulson, McCormick, Bergenheim, Bryzgalov
So how is Fletcher as a trader? Here is how I grade him.
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Let’s establish value…
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Draft Picks Value
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Games Played
The value of draft picks is largely overstated. Here is the expected games a draft pick will play 200 games.
-mid/late 1st round pick (45-50%)
- mid/late 2nd round pick (25-30%)
-mid/late 3rd round pick has (15-20%)
Points Per Game (expected points per 82 games by draft slot)
-5th overall (50 points),10th (30 points), 15th (25 points), 30th or 2nd round (15 pts), 45th (12 pts), 60th or 3rd round (9 pts), 75th (7 pts), 90th (6 pts) or 4th round, 105th (4 pts)
So here’s what that means…
Top 5 Pick Expectation:
50 pt forward or equivalent D, which by last years stats makes you a top 90 forward scoring wise which we’ll call a low 1st line/high 2nd line player†Ex. Mikael Granlund’s level of play this year
Top 10 Pick Expectation:
30 pt forward or equivalent D, a 30 pt pace rates you around 220-225 for scoring for forwards in the NHL last season, so a low 2nd liner/good 3rd liner. Ex. Erik Haula this year
Top 15 pick expectation:
25 pt forward or equivalent D, a 25 pt pace puts you around 245 for scoring per game for forwards in the NHL last season, so a solid 3rd line player. Ex. Justin Fontaine’s career scoring numbers are slightly above this
Late 1st/Early 2nd round:
15 pt forward or equivalent D, this pace puts you around 315 in scoring for forwards so a solid “4th line†player
It’s easy to see how quickly the NHL draft becomes a crapshoot. The value of a pick 5-10 is probably a top 6 forward (or equivalent D), picks 10-15 middle 6 forward, picks 15-20 3rd line forward, 20-30 bottom 6 forward, 30-45 solid/good 4th line player, 46-60 fringe NHL player
Perhaps most surprisingly, it seems that the value of a 1st round pick between 15-30 or that of a playoff team is about a solid 3rd line player. And the expected value of a mid to late 2nd round/3rd round pick in the NHL is being generous to say it’s a 4th line caliber player
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What kind of value did the Wild get?
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The Wild’s return is headlined by Pominville, Niederreiter, Coyle, Dubnyk In terms of actual production, Pominville, Niederreiter, and Coyle have all proved to be worth the value of a top 5 picks roughly. Dubnyk’s play also likely warrants him a top 10 if not top 5 pick value. (If you think Dubnyk is worth a 50 point forward) They also tried out rentals in Bergenhiem, Moulson, McCormick, etc. who probably range from 2nd round value to 4th round value if not better in all actuality.
The Wild seemingly traded Nick Leddy whose value is likely also a top 3-10 pick, got a top 5 pick value player back for a top 5 pick value player in Brent Burns, and traded pick values of 1 solid 3rd line player, 4 4th line player values, and 4 fringe NHLer values at best. They also gave up Larsson, who likely carries late mid/late 1st by his NHL play, and Clutterbuck who probably carries mid 1st round value as well in terms of expected value.
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Long Term Result
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Wild Value Recieved:
It seems that the ended up getting long term players worth the expected value of:
-4 top 5 pick value players
-Along with rentals that they bought to attempt to make playoff runs
Wild Value Given Up:
-2 top 5 pick value (one was leaving) players (Burns/Leddy)
-a mid 1st round pick value player (Clutterbuck)
-1 late 1st round pick value player (Larsson)
+
Draft picks with the expected values of 1 good 3rd line player/8 bottom 6/fringe NHL players at best. Now that does mean the Wild gave up 8 chances to find a Johan Larsson or a Jason Zucker who outperforms the expected value.
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Understanding the data behind the value of draft picks that GMs work with makes it easier to understand.
** I do concede that the chance to draft a player in the 2nd/3rd/4th round gives you a chance to grab a player that far out exceeds his player value and there is some value to that. But there is also a value to a rental that gives you a chance to win crunch time regular season games/playoff games. There is also an inherent value to that**
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Fletcher is great at trading
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Moreover, Fletcher has time and time again shown the ability to make key trades in the moment that help the team now. The chance to win now is a similiar gambling thought process to the chance of hitting on a draft pick. Fletcher on two occassions was able to save the Wild season by making trades: Pominville and Dubnyk.
Pominville
The Wild team and was the leading point scorer on the Wild that year and also second on the team in year two. Further, Fletcher was able to not only deal a lot of value for a rental. Pominville was signed to a relatively team friendly deal. He has declined, but settled in very nicely as Haula’s winger and helped the Wild have a very dynamic 3rd line with Nino, Haula, and himself.
Dubnyk
Fletcher also saved another Wild season by trading a 3rd round pick for Dubnyk. Dubnyk proceeded to play at an elite level and lead the Wild on a historic level run leading them from last in the division to the playoffs. That does not happen if Fletcher wasn’t willing to take the chance. One can argue that on a lesser scale, the Bryzgalov move did the same thing. And again further, the Wild have been able to lock up an elite goalie long term. That is a crazy amount of value.
Nino
And Fletcher was also able to trade a fan favorite in Clutterbuck and a draft pick for a guy who was considered at the time as a disgruntled bust with work ethic and attitude issues. Instead the Wild got a 22 year old power forward who has become arguably the Wild’s best player according to advance stats...a puck possession monster who’s a physical force on the forecheck, almost impossible to move in the crease, great hands in tight, and a great shot who’s able to put up 20/20 from the 3rd line without much PP time. Further, Nino won game 7 for the Wild.
Turns Burns situation into Charlie Coyle:
Fletcher was even able to turn Brent Burns, who was leaving, into Charlie Coyle and other pieces. Coyle has the ability to play C/W on any line in the top 9 and like Nino has turned into a 20/20 player with potential 30/30 upside.
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Yes it is true, trades don’t always work out and the Leddy trade is an example of a flop. But Fletcher’s thought process was this, he could trade a D prospect they drafted in the 1st round who they weren’t sure of for a 23 year old defender who was a former #3 overall pick who had put up 40 points in 68 games the year before. That thought process is sound and makes sense, but it didn’t work out. More often than not, if your thought process is sound...the trades will work out.
For every Dubnyk there is a Hackett for every Phillips there is a Coyle for every Leddy there is a Barker. Most fans, when valuing draft picks value a 1st round pick as a Coyle not a Phillips. But a GM understands that there is that gamble and also understands the value of winning now and creating a winning culture and giving your players chances to succeed. Bergenheim wasn’t worth what the Wild gave up to get him. But his possession numbers looked really good. Fletcher understanding his team, understanding that they relied on depth to win, and understanding that he had the chance to upgrade his bottom 6 and get a player who could potentially push the Wild bottom 6 to the next level and push the Wild into the playoffs/playoff run...made the deal. It wasn’t worth it, but if Bergenheim would have solidly contributed it would have been. And there was reason to believe that Bergenheim was a player who can really make a bottom 6 better. That is a sound thought process and done for the right reasons.
Chuck Fletcher has been able to trade for Pominville/Nino/Coyle/Dubnyk without giving up any key assets as well as rentals trying to give the Wild as much firepower in the playoffs as possible. He has done this, improving our NHL team both in the present and future, without mortgaging the future.
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Trading...What I’m Trying to Say
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Good GMs trust their reason for making trades and have the attitude to be aggressive to take advantage of opportunities to make their team better if they see them with an understanding of the bigger picture at hand. The same kind of mentality that got the Wild Coyle, Nino, Dubnyk, and Pominville who have allowed the Wild to reach some of their best successes is the same reason that the Wild lost Nick Leddy. There is risk involved in every move, but it’s important to have a GM who’s willing to consistently be flexible and trust his process and continue to look at every possible avenue in order to improve the Organization. If a trade makes sense...I want my GM to make the trade understanding that there are times when it doesn’t work out.
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Did Fletcher Mortgage The Future
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Some fans worry that Fletcher gives up too many draft picks and too much future value and worry that he might be mortgaging the future to win now. This side of the debate, usually cited the Wild’s very bare cupboard of prospects during the previous couple of years. But it’s important to remember a couple of things, the Wild using that value had basically graduated Granlund, Coyle, Nino, Zucker, Fontaine, Spurgeon, Brodin, Scandella, Dumba, Folin, Rielly, etc. all within a period of a few years. That’s 4 top 9 players, 5 forwards, 4 top 4+ caliber D, and 2 very solid NHL defenders in Rielly and Folin. That’s 11 players that the Wild were able to develop into successful NHL players.
Point being, there is a reason that the Wild went through a lull period. And it is fair to worry about a GM who is pretty liberal trading draft picks. But it’s not so worrying when you have a GM like Fletcher who’s very content with continuing to get talent through unconventional and little beaten avenues. Nino, Spurgeon, Folin, Rielly, Fontaine, and arguably Dubnyk are de facto Fletcher draft picks as he gave them their NHL chance.
My point, Fletcher has been able to greatly improve the NHL team without trading any key assets while finding other avenues to get talented young players through trades, undrafted/drafted free agency, and opportunistic waiver wire claims. Further, Fletcher has been able to rebuild our system not only before the previous crop of their prospect core is over the hill, but even before the aging veteran group ages out of being productive players. This puts the Wild in a fantastic situation to be able to neatly transition from Pominville/Parise/Koivu/Staal/Suter to the next crop.
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Managing Contracts
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One of Fletcher’s best and most underrated skill is to be able to consistently sign team friendly contracts that allow the Wild to retain as much of their talent as possible and don’t burden themselves with bad contracts. Fletcher has shown a lot of loyalty to his players and it is a sign of a good organization when players will sign team friendly deals to stay.
In recent years, Spurgeon, Scandella, Brodin, Coyle have all recently signed their 2nd contracts and done so for very reasonable terms for their value.
Veterans that have come elsewhere to play for the Wild through trade have stuck around on team friendly deals as well, Pominville and Dubnyk have in recent years signed pretty team friendly deals as well for their value.
Further, Fletcher has been able to lure veterans who are still productive players to sign contracts that are team friendly in years and largely dollar amount too despite it being more advantageous to accept a longer term deal to try and get the most value out of what will likely be (declining) production after the first couple years of the contract--the Wild have largely been able to avoid that.
Erik Staal and Thomas Vanek have both signed with the Wild for very team friendly terms, allowing the Wild to lock up both players for the majority of what is left of their productive years without dealing with a problem that a lot of teams have with value in the 4th and 5th years of deals that are usually market value.
