Why the Avs will regress next year

[tucker3434]

That wasn't my point. Clever response though.



Because it's normal for top-heavy teams with questionable defence to still win games over an 82 schedule, due in part to their goaltender bailing them out on a number of occasions?

Turns out, a team with good offense, mediocre defense, and great goaltending can win some games. Is that really surprising? The avs are anything but top heavy. They were without 2 top 6 wingers for about half the season and still won the division.

The avs most talented player is 18. Quit acting like they're a sub 500 team because they lost in ot of game 7.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

There's a reason they have all that cap space, because of all those young guys on ELCs and bridge deals. What do you think will end up happening when these guys all need to be paid, and rightly so? Yeah. If the Avs do go after better d-men in FA (which they have to if they wanna have any hope of repeating last year), they had better be on short term deals.

Annnnnnnd wrong.


Only players we have signed right now to bridge deals/ELC's are Mackinnon, and Barrie(Will get one this offseason)



Landeskog is locked up for 7 years at 5.571M. Duchene is locked up for 5 years at 6M. Varlamov is here for the next 5 years at 5.9M. And EJ is here for the next 2 years at 3.75M.

Avs have tonnes of cap space to resign both ROR and Stastny, both in the 6.5-7M range, AND still go out and spend 4.5-6M on a good Top 4 Dman like Niskanen or whoever.

In 2 years from now the cap is most likely up to 75-77M, and that will be plenty of additional space to sign EJ and Mackinnon to the big contracts they'll deserve. Cap space is a complete non issue for the Avs. So far Landeskog, and Duchene have both taken sweetheart deals for the Avs, and with Varly's level of play last year his is a bargain as well.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

So, if they make the playoffs with fewer points and only as a wildcard, but they advance from the first round, have they regressed? Not in my mind.

 

[shadow1]

The young core got better, but the Avalanche also got career-years from five skaters: O’Reilly, Landeskog, Duchene, Johnson and Barrie.

Don't those two statements support themselves?

They’re unlikely to get that kind of effort from that many players again next year, O’Reilly specifically. He’s a very good two-way player, but can you expect much more than 28 goals and 64 points out of him?

Seeing as you are asking rather than supporting your statement:

O'Reilly scored 55 points as a 21-year-old, 20 points in 29 games last year as a 22-year-old, and now had his best season - 64 points - as a 23-year-old while playing a more prominent role.

Seems more like statistical progression than it does an anomaly.

 

[djboos22]

What kinda regression are we talkin? From 2nd seed to like 5 or 6th seed? That could happen, but they will still make the playoffs.

 

[Weast]

Once teams start to adapt to our system, im sure we might have a little bit of trouble. I have very little doubt that we will make the playoffs next season however.

 

[Hasbro]

The Avs will absolutely regress next year. The author pointed out a number of compelling points to substantiate this. It doesn't mean they will suck, it simply means they overachieved this year.

Yeah sub-30 goal season's represent "career years" for high picked forwards in their early 20's.

 

[MrClutch86]

They will regress and still be in the playoffs... According to advanced stats their play wasnt sustainable, but that comes with a young team. Avs will be a force to be reckoned with down the road for years to come.

This..I see them regressing but not that much. I just don't see a way the Avs can sustain what they did this year. They have a bright future though.

 

[Timbo Slice]

If Varly doesn't have another amazing season next year they're in trouble. They need one or two more top 4 defenseman to be real contenders, imo.

 

[George Clooney]

They might get less point but I don't think they will '' really '' regress. The young ones will be better. I don't see Mackinnon being less good. I'm not a gambler but if I was one, I'd bet that they would be in the playoff, probably top 5 in the west.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Take their series against Minnesota, and extend it over 82 games.

So....Duchene playing 25% of the time, and no Barrie or Mitchell???

 

[Zodiac]

if Varly continues to play well and they upgrade the defense ...the Avs will be in fine shape.

 

[Freudian]

Avs had 112 points last year, if they get 111 or less they regressed.

It's not really that much a stretch to say Avs won't get more points then they did last year. The hard bet would be saying they will improve on that

Avs can play better hockey and end up with fewer points next year. Have they then regressed? Of course not.

The record isn't a perfect representation of how good you are as a team. It's a mix of how good you play and a bunch of factors that have varying elements of randomness to it (puck luck, injury luck, good/bad schedule). Everyone knows Avs aren't the third best team in hockey. They had the third best record over the past 82 game season.

If this discussion is about Avs point total 'regressing' to a lower number next year, it's a pretty boring discussion. It probably will. Predicting that is just playing the odds.

 

[ThatGuy22]

No, they weren't, unless 3 wins would have won the series.

Colorado won games 1 and 5 in OT. In game 1 they tied it with seconds left, game 5 they tied it with a minute left. If we are playing the Ifs and Buts game with late tying goals, they were under two minutes from winning it in 5.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I think they'll regress in terms of regular season points but that doesn't mean they'd be any worse as a team. In fact, just the opposite. But the expectations will be a lot higher than this year and the fact is they completely managed to avoid any bad streches this year.

Not as good reg. season but better post-season. Im guessing they lose in conference finals.

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

I'd be pretty disappointed if the Avs didn't finish at least 3rd in the division next year.

 

[Virtanen18]

Not a fan of and don't care about advanced statistics/fenwick/etc. Only care about three stats Wins, Losses and Points. It is possible to regress in points but still be a 'better' team. The team isn't built for a possession based offense, they're built for speed and scoring off the rush. Go Avs!

This. Was clearly evident in the playoffs. Youngsters will only get better. I predict another great season for the Avs.

 

[Samzilla]

Unless they win the Central division again they will have "regressed", so thats certainly a safe prediction to make. Whats funny to me is how the accepted narrative seems to be the Avs were a "lucky" team this year. We probably had the worst injury set you never heard of this season, missing 2-3 top 6 forwards concurrently most of the year including the playoffs. The only time the team was actually healthy they went 14-2 to start the season, if they had Duchene, Mitchell, and Barrie (just forgetting Tanguay who was on pace for 60 points) they quite likely see the second round. PDO might mean luck but it can also reflect a play style, one thats risky for sure but thats the Avalanche style scoring off the rush with speed and higher quality chances while allowing low % shots on defense. No one expects the same wild regular season success next year, but the playoffs will just come down to injuries and if they actually get "lucky" for once they could go farther.

did u just steal this from a maple leafs thread?

 

[Ceremony]

Because all their forwards are old and the defence will be the same and the goalie doesn't count as part of the team. Right?

 

[YoSoyLalo]

If they don't improve their blueline then, yeah, they'll definitely regress, IMO. Not a tremendous amount, but they could definitely be closer to third/a wild card spot than the top spot next year.

 

[Taak19]

They'll make the playoffs.

But Berra needs to be better than what we've seen in 2 games. If Varly goes down for any amount of time we're screwed.

 

[Taak19]

Colorado won games 1 and 5 in OT. In game 1 they tied it with seconds left, game 5 they tied it with a minute left. If we are playing the Ifs and Buts game with late tying goals, they were under two minutes from winning it in 5.

And at the end of the day who won those games?

And if we are playing Ifs and Buts, what if Colorado had Barrie, Duchene, Tanguay and Mitchell? And healthy (not broken hands) Landeskog/Hejda? Yeah.

 

[Hivemind]

Advanced stats are useless.

You better tell Chicago all that work they've been doing in analytics has been waste. Hurry!

 

[Freudian]

You better tell Chicago all that work they've been doing in analytics has been waste. Hurry!

Chicago had a big drop off in points/game in the regular season this year. They're, you know, regressing.

 

[ThatGuy22]

And at the end of the day who won those games?

And if we are playing Ifs and Buts, what if Colorado had Barrie, Duchene, Tanguay and Mitchell? And healthy (not broken hands) Landeskog/Hejda? Yeah.

And at the end of the day who won game 7?

He started the ifs and buts game, not me. There are plenty ifs to go around(Wild starting 3rd/4th goalies). I just pointed out that while yes they were within two minutes of winning the series, they were also within two minutes of losing it all in 5.