Why the Avs will regress next year

[Dutchess]

http://twopadstack.net/colorado-avalanche-will-regress-next-year/

Let the "hater" comments flow, but I really do like the Avs. Nothing wrong with being a fortunate team. "Better to be lucky than good" and all that.

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[Gigantor The Goalie]

I forgot that Varly, Duchene, ROR, MacKinnon, and Landeskog were all 35 years old. I also forgot that the Avs have cap space so there's no way they can't sign better defensemen. Also every player on the team is crap so there is no trade possible that can make the Avs better.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I see the avs have become the new ducks...

I think they'll do just fine next year personally.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Why they won't: Roy

 

[Vladys Gumption]

They won't regress if they fix the defense. That team is completely stacked offensively, and in goal. As the young guys grow on offense, they are just going to keep getting more insane up front. Fix that defense, and that will be a very, very scary combo. As a Blues fan, they didn't scare me that much this year, but that's because their defense was a gong-show. They scare the hell out of me in the long term.

 

[Pete Mitchell]

Not a fan of and don't care about advanced statistics/fenwick/etc. Only care about three stats Wins, Losses and Points. It is possible to regress in points but still be a 'better' team. The team isn't built for a possession based offense, they're built for speed and scoring off the rush. Go Avs!

 

[Frenchy]

They could regress a little bit , its possible , but i dont see them go down in flame . They could finish second or 3rd of their division .... If that's what we call regressing , yeah they could regress .

 

[ThatGuy22]

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the Avs played well over their head this year, and are due for some regression. The big question will be, how much will the development of their young core offset that regression.

So, strictly speaking, if anything short of winning the toughest division in hockey again is considered regressing. Than yes, they probably will.

But there is a pretty decent chance, they will have much better underlying numbers next year do to the development of their core even if they finish worst in standings. They will likely be a playoff team again next year, even if it is a Wild Card spot.

 

[MilanKraft*]

When you come first...only place is to go down.

They'll be good just not win division again.

 

[committedindian86]

They are so young, this team will be a threat for a few years at least. The division is tough as nails with Chicago, St. Louis, Minnesota, and even Dallas playing very well.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

It's likely they regress due to how high they finished, but the article seems based on the assumption that they won't make any moves to improve the defense. It's still too early to tell.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

It's a possibility, and perhaps the odds favor it quite a bit, but I don't really see a point to a thread like this. I mean, there is a 70% chance for rain tomorrow.

 

[Hivemind]

The Avs will absolutely regress next year. The author pointed out a number of compelling points to substantiate this. It doesn't mean they will suck, it simply means they overachieved this year.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

This article is nothing new. Mentions of some Corsi, some Fenwick, some common sense observations. And a prediction that is easily to back up, and will most likely come true.

What I did like, is that the author didn't act like it was a for-sure thing, especially in regards to the sabermetrics. They are great pattern showers, but do not predict the future. He used them properly as a reference point.

What I didnt like: He also pointed out that a couple of Avs players were in career years, and that wasn't likely to happen (especially Landeskog and O'Reilly). Not that that isn't true, but I don't see how players reaching a plateau means next year they can't repeat that performance, even if it doesn't mean increasing the numbers. I also never like the assumption that PDO means directly luck. A team can have an above 1000 PDO, because not all teams have equal talent rosters.

 

[ThatAvsGamer]

Advanced stats are useless. Sure we might not make win the division again, but we will still most likely make the playoffs. I don't really consider that regressing though. Duchene, O'reilly, Landy, Barrie, Johnson will all be older and have gained lots of experience from this season and most likely will all be better next season.

Teams will most likely be playing us harder next year because they know how good this team can be. I can see if we don't find a top 6 replacement for Stastny (if he doesn't re-sign) or find some better Defence, I could see us landing in the 9-11 position in the West.

I don't see this team dropping to the bottom unless Varly gets injured for the majority of the season or if we are plagued by injuries.

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

I think it's a little early to make a decision on this until we see how they address their positional weaknesses in free agency and the offseason, as well as the comparative performance of their rivals in such activity.

 

[Freudian]

There is nothing to regress to. Avs will not have the same team next year as they had this year. The hockey world resets every July.

 

[Mr Positive]

When you come first...only place is to go down.

They'll be good just not win division again.

well the article thinks there is a serious threat that they won't make the playoffs even, so it's not a hollow claim by the writer.

If everything goes right for them, they have no reason to worry. Varly has to keep his play up, Stastny has to re-sign, and the D needs needs to be upgraded.

People can say stuff like Corsi and advanced stats don't matter but after the Leafs imploded I would think that the Avs should be worried. The Leafs made changes to improve their 2 way game too. If they aren't deep changes your winning is never permanent.

 

[BHD]

Take their series against Minnesota, and extend it over 82 games.

 

[Freudian]

Take their series against Minnesota, and extend it over 82 games.

****. They're going to wreck Tyson Barrie's knee 11.7 times next year? I feel bad for the kid.

 

[BHD]

****. They're going to wreck Tyson Barrie's knee 11.7 times next year? I feel bad for the kid.

Sorry. I was unaware that Barrie constituted for half a defense, a handful of forwards, and a starting goaltender.

 

[Swervin81]

There's a reason they have all that cap space, because of all those young guys on ELCs and bridge deals. What do you think will end up happening when these guys all need to be paid, and rightly so? Yeah. If the Avs do go after better d-men in FA (which they have to if they wanna have any hope of repeating last year), they had better be on short term deals.

 

[Freudian]

Sorry, I was unaware that Barrie constituted for half a defense, a handful of forwards, and a starting goaltender.

Avs played without Duchene for five games, Mitchell for all seven games and without Barrie for five games. I'm not sure why you would argue that this series is more representative of Avs than any other random seven game stretch. Avs were two minutes from winning the series. It was pretty much a coinflip.

There will probably be at least five new names on the team when next season starts. Most of the core will be one year older and more likely than not one year better. There is no magical link to this years team where what happened this year will affect what happens next year.

Of course it's unlikely that Avs will finish third overall next year. You don't need corsi/fenwick/PDO to figure that out. You just have to look at what players they have signed. That doesn't mean Avs will be a worse team next year. Most likely they'll get better next year and the year after.

 

[ThatAvsGamer]

I don't see us doing better/as good next regular season. But I would not be surprised if we placed better in the playoffs next year.

 

[BHD]

Avs played without Duchene for five games, Mitchell for all seven games and without Barrie for five games. I'm not sure why you would argue that this series is more representative of Avs than any other random seven game stretch. Avs were two minutes from winning the series. It was pretty much a coinflip.

Nobody is doubting their ability to score goals. Rather, they are questioning the other part of the team. Their defense was exposed for what is, and Varlamov couldn't bail them out - like he did for most of the season.

There will probably be at least five new names on the team when next season starts. Most of the core will be one year older and more likely than not one year better. There is no magical link to this years team where what happened this year will affect what happens next year.

Yes, there is. Varlamov was a major part of their success. I wouldn't rule out him mimicking his play during the reg season, but I wouldn't guarantee it either.

Of course it's unlikely that Avs will finish third overall next year. You don't need corsi/fenwick/PDO to figure that out. You just have to look at what players they have signed. That doesn't mean Avs will be a worse team next year. Most likely they'll get better next year and the year after.

Fair enough. I don't see them hanging with Chicago and St.Louis, like they did this past season. They should, however, still compete for a playoff spot.