Why is Dubnyk being a product of his team so under the radar?

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I've seen a fair share of goalies from just about every team being considered overrated and product of their team some deservingly so, others not so much. But one goalie I've rarely seen being mentioned as a product of his team is Devan Dubnyk, and it's actually too obvious that he's not only not a strong link for the Wild, but arguably a weak link.

Dubnyk faces literally the lowest high danger shots out of every goalie in the league per game 5on5 since he joined the Wild. His expected save percentage is constantly in what counts as elite for goalies, and he rarely if ever even matches it (Most of the times he's a net negative in delta save percentage and goals saved against average).

It's not like he's some elite chance suppressor either, in fact he's still a very poor puck handler in that regard, even though his rebound control and puck tracking have improved from his Oiler days.

Click to read more...

 

[MaxDummy]

He is indeed very average at best. Always as been..

 

[Cassano]

Do people outside of Wild fans really rate him that highly?

 

[izzy]

well ok?

 

[57special]

Dubnyk has not been good since he got run into by Wilson in his first game back from suspension. Might be coincidental, but you could see his head got popped really hard. He has also had some really bad luck, i.e., the TOR game, where 3 of the 4 goals were flukes and the other was a snipe by Mathews.

Before that, he was our best player, and he has been very good for us, for the most part, since he came over from ARI. We know what it's like to have a poor goalie...it can get a LOT worse than Dubnyk.

He does suck at handling the puck, though.

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

He's a good goalie, but he tends to have stretches of weird goals allowed. Used to happen a lot in Edmonton.

 

[oXo Cube]

There was a brief period where he was hot right when he joined Minnesota where everyone jumped on the bandwagon as an excuse to dump on the Oilers.

Overall I think everyone know's that he's nothing special though.

 

[SladeWilson23]

I've seen a fair share of goalies from just about every team being considered overrated and product of their team some deservingly so, others not so much.

Quick is probably the biggest victim of this if we're talking current goalies, and he doesn't deserve that reputation. That's a guy who was an elite goalie for quite a while.

But one goalie I've rarely seen being mentioned as a product of his team is Devan Dubnyk, and it's actually too obvious that he's not only not a strong link for the Wild, but arguably a weak link.

Dubnyk faces literally the lowest high danger shots out of every goalie in the league per game 5on5 since he joined the Wild.

I do have a problem with using high danger chances per game simply because of how tight the entire league. All 31 teams are squeezed into a 10 to 13 HD chance range per 60.

His expected save percentage is constantly in what counts as elite for goalies, and he rarely if ever even matches it (Most of the times he's a net negative in delta save percentage and goals saved against average).

It's not like he's some elite chance suppressor either, in fact he's still a very poor puck handler in that regard, even though his rebound control and puck tracking have improved from his Oiler days.

The guy does have some very meh numbers. He did have his moments of brilliance though, and I don't think he's really hurting the Wild at all.

 

[SenzZen]

Didn’t most peg him as being a victim of the equipment changes?

Ok so “victim” isn’t the best word, but lots of people saw him struggling as a result.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Quick is probably the biggest victim of this if we're talking current goalies, and he doesn't deserve that reputation. That's a guy who was an elite goalie for quite a while.



I do have a problem with using high danger chances per game simply because of how tight the entire league. All 31 teams are squeezed into a 10 to 13 HD chance range per 60.



The guy does have some very meh numbers. He did have his moments of brilliance though, and I don't think he's really hurting the Wild at all.

He is lately.

 

[tsnTpoint]

He's a good goalie, but he tends to have stretches of weird goals allowed. Used to happen a lot in Edmonton.

Used to happen every single game in Edmonton.

Still think Dubnyk is a terrible goalie.

 

[Wasted Talent]

His numbers have really dipped after the collision with Wilson.

Before: 13 GP, 93.3%, 2.14 GAA
After: 9 GP, 85.7%, 3.92 GAA

 

[MoeTheHobo]

eh, you should have seen the guy before him...

 

[Jugitsu]

Do people outside of Wild fans really rate him that highly?

Higher. Most Wild fans have known for quite some time that Dubnyk is an average starter at best and even worse when it counts in the big games. He did bail us out when he landed here and saved the season, but after that he hasn't been that good. He has stretches where he can steal games and keep the team afloat, like the start of this season when he was tracking pucks and staying sharp. But for some reason he once again stopped tracking pucks and too often tries to rely on his big frame to make the save, rather than to fight to gain vision.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Used to happen every single game in Edmonton.

Still think Dubnyk is a terrible goalie.

He isn't terrible, he's still a solid goalie. However, he's never really talked about when it comes to being a system goalie when he fits the bill more than other goaltenders.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Pekka Rinne is similar in that regard although he's definitely better and more talented. Rinne is a rich mans Dubnyk, playing behind that D in Nashville all those years. Surface stats look good but a lot of the analytics say 'eh not so fast'

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I don’t think anyone’s ever been hiding that he’s a product of a good system. I mean he was basically out of the league before he came to MN. I think what people don’t understand, however, is how much of the game is mental, especially for goalies. With how good they all are, the difference between great and ok is really small. Dubnyk gained confidence while playing in Minnesota. Couple that with his confidence in the system Minnesota plays and an understanding for the type of shots he’s going to be facing and you have a very team made goalie.

 

[TheNumber4]

People forget that before Dubnyk blew up in Edmonton and went on his slide. He was actually good for the Oilers, and trust me there was no way the Oilers were supporting him back then.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

His contract is very worrisome in the future

 

[Bleedred]

He is indeed very average at best. Always as been..

This is what I think.

Some really good years, some really average years, a couple of poor years.

He fluctuates a lot from year to year.

At the end of the day, I think Dubnyk belongs in a category of about 15-18 starting goalies, that are very interchangeable and not elite, and are not bad.

There's very few bad starters in the NHL and there's very few really good starters in the NHL. There's too many average starters in the NHL and Dubnyk is one of them.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Didn't he also have a season where he had a rough start and then by mid season, he erased that?

Seems early to say that, he hasn't been terrible, he's been average, but that's better than some of the other #1's that have completely tanked it with their play (I say this knowing full well, Murray is one of those goalies that has absolutely tanked it as of late and most of last season).

 

[Bleedred]

His numbers have really dipped after the collision with Wilson.

Before: 13 GP, 93.3%, 2.14 GAA
After: 9 GP, 85.7%, 3.92 GAA

I'd like to point something out here. I don't keep day by day or game by game logs, but as some of you know, I've been tracking goals every night this year. I've watched every goal scored on goalie this year, in an effort to find out if there's a correlation between poor save percentage and poor eye test goalie play and vice versa. After having to hear for years ''Our DEE is bad! That goalie isn't really bad!''. So I'm trying my hand at it.

One thing I noticed with Dubnyk was that early in the season, I counted a very high number of stoppable goals on Dubnyk, despite having a VERY good save percentage. I said to myself ''He allows a lot of poor goals for having a .930%+ save percentage right now''.

Now since drop in play in save percentage? I've noticed the stoppable goals are slowing down a lot. I did nail him on two of those three early goals he allowed last game before being pulled though. Stalock allowed some laugher's too. So my conclusion is that he wasn't playing nearly as good early in the year as his numbers said, and now he's not playing nearly as bad as his numbers have said. Call this a market correction, in that his save percentage is probably where it should be now, just how he's played on the entire year, not how he's played lately. It's the numbers evening out. Regression to the mean. The evening out of the percentages. Been a couple other guys I've noticed this with.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

There is a lot of revisionist history in this thread so far. In Edmonton, he had the makings of a very good starter, but had a fatal flaw. He would go down well before the shot came, thinking his frame would cover the net. Not so much against NHL shooters who knew to go high, usually resulting in at least one very bad goal per game. After going to Nashville, then Montreal, and nearly washing out, Dubnyk finally decided to listen to the advice that coaches had been giving him for years. He was given a chance to start again in Arizona, and was lights out for them, on an otherwise awful team. The guy was 9-5-2 on a squad that went 24-50-8.

He parlayed that into an opportunity with the Wild, with stellar results, and he's been solid ever since. Perhaps he's in a lull right now, or maybe on the downswing of his career at 32 years old. It appears that there may be some correlation with the Wilson hit as well. The point is, this thread would never have come up prior to the current bad stretch, and many solid seasons are now thrown out the window.

I couldn't stand him as a goalie on the Oilers, but the bug in his game was corrected, and that is the giraffe that I'd want in net.

 

[Maylo]

Pekka Rinne is similar in that regard although he's definitely better and more talented. Rinne is a rich mans Dubnyk, playing behind that D in Nashville all those years. Surface stats look good but a lot of the analytics say 'eh not so fast'

Same as Vasylevski. Highest expected sv% along with Dubnyk. Domingue went 1o-3 on the same team while he's been hurt.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Same as Vasylevski. Highest expected sv% along with Dubnyk. Domingue went 1o-3 on the same team while he's been hurt.

Domingue's numbers aren't exactly stellar, he's been average enough for Tampa to win with him in net. If your argument is that he benefits from that Tampa system, his numbers wouldn't be 2.95GAA and a .906 SV%

Vas is actually a fantastic young #1 goalie, the guy is elite.