Why is Dubnyk being a product of his team so under the radar?

[Bleedred]

Same as Vasylevski. Highest expected sv% along with Dubnyk. Domingue went 1o-3 on the same team while he's been hurt.

Domingue's numbers aren't exactly stellar, he's been average enough for Tampa to win with him in net. If your argument is that he benefits from that Tampa system, his numbers wouldn't be 2.95GAA and a .906 SV%

Vas is actually a fantastic young #1 goalie, the guy is elite.

I would say Domingue is where he is because the team is really good at scoring. His personal goalie statistics? Not so good. He's actually been allowing a lot more poor goals recently than he was early on. I remember he a 7 goal against game early this year before Vasilevskiy got hurt and he was barely playing. I didn't count one stoppable goal on him that game. He had no chance on any of those goals, but that number has really caught up to him recently. It's like the reverse of Dubnyk. Dubnyk was playing worse than his numbers early on, Domingue was playing not as bad, but now it's caught up to where it should be.

I think it was Saturday night's game where he allowed one goal and I nailed him on that one as a stoppable goal. The game against the Devils (in Tampa) the last time? He allowed 2 goals and both were weak. Puck handling giveaway and a clean 5-hole goal from well out.

 

[Maylo]

Domingue's numbers aren't exactly stellar, he's been average enough for Tampa to win with him in net. If your argument is that he benefits from that Tampa system, his numbers wouldn't be 2.95GAA and a .906 SV%

Vas is actually a fantastic young #1 goalie, the guy is elite.

Based on what?

..... In Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have what appears to be a near-elite starting goalie. “Appears to be” is the operative term at the top of that last paragraph and as it turns out, playing in front of a strong Lightning defence has its perks. Vasilevskiy may have posted a solid .917 in 2016-17, but his expected save percentage was .922. Last season’s .920 is also impressive until you see his expected save percentage was .921. It’s also worth noting too that much of his perceived success last year came in the season’s first half. From January onward he was a .905 goalie. That needs to improve. He’s had a short career, but the fact his expected save percentage is generally higher than what he actually earns means he’s never actually had a season where his GSAA was positive, signalling a below average goalie.

2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

 

[Bleedred]

Based on what?


2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

I don't think Vasilevskiy is quite elite yet, but he's getting there. I'd probably wait to see how he did after this season before calling him elite.

Remember, Hellebuyck was being called elite after last year, yet the guy has yet to have consecutive good seasons in his short NHL career. Vasilevskiy's earlier seasons before last year were pretty average to slid and he was a backup for most of them.

So I'm not ready to call Vasilevskiy elite yet, but he's certainly very good and much better than Domingue. I think the only goalie that I'd consider elite around Vasilevskiy's age right now is John Gibson. Vasilevskiy is close, Hellebuyck is really not that close. Not consistent enough from year to year. Doesn't mean he'll never be, he's just not nearly there yet.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Based on what?


2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning

Based on his numbers vs his back-ups numbers. If your claims that Vas isn't elite is based off an article that even talks about how he's playing behind a strong Tampa team (with their own share of injuries) and yet, his back-up isn't out playing him or even close to his numbers, yet he's putting up solid numbers that puts him in the elite category of the goalies right now with his SV%...

I'll stand by my comments.


PS - I'm a Pens fan, but I'm not deluded into pretending Vas isn't an elite goalie.

 

[Dolemite]

I've seen a fair share of goalies from just about every team being considered overrated and product of their team some deservingly so, others not so much. But one goalie I've rarely seen being mentioned as a product of his team is Devan Dubnyk, and it's actually too obvious that he's not only not a strong link for the Wild, but arguably a weak link.

Dubnyk faces literally the lowest high danger shots out of every goalie in the league per game 5on5 since he joined the Wild. His expected save percentage is constantly in what counts as elite for goalies, and he rarely if ever even matches it (Most of the times he's a net negative in delta save percentage and goals saved against average).

It's not like he's some elite chance suppressor either, in fact he's still a very poor puck handler in that regard, even though his rebound control and puck tracking have improved from his Oiler days.

Or perhaps that's a product of the defense corps in front of him.

Credit Sean Burke for taking his game to another level when Dubnyk was a Coyotes

 

[Cellee]

I find this thread quite surprising. I listen to a lot of Minneapolis radio and guys I trust on there have said he is having a fantastic year, a huge part of why they have had a solid start.

 

[Cellee]

There was a brief period where he was hot right when he joined Minnesota where everyone jumped on the bandwagon as an excuse to dump on the Oilers.

Overall I think everyone know's that he's nothing special though.

A ridiculous post.

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

There might be 3 goalies in the league that aren’t a product of their team

 

[Cellee]

Dubnyk was great in the playoffs for the most part last year.

Sure as hell was not the team in front of him.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Quick is probably the biggest victim of this if we're talking current goalies, and he doesn't deserve that reputation. That's a guy who was an elite goalie for quite a while.



I do have a problem with using high danger chances per game simply because of how tight the entire league. All 31 teams are squeezed into a 10 to 13 HD chance range per 60.



The guy does have some very meh numbers. He did have his moments of brilliance though, and I don't think he's really hurting the Wild at all.

The difference is that on a YEARLY basis the Wild are the “outlier” in chance suppression despite being a normal shot suppression team. That will inflate save percentage.

Tampa and Boston have overrated goalies as well for the same way but not to quite the same degree.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Domingue's numbers aren't exactly stellar, he's been average enough for Tampa to win with him in net. If your argument is that he benefits from that Tampa system, his numbers wouldn't be 2.95GAA and a .906 SV%

Vas is actually a fantastic young #1 goalie, the guy is elite.

Nah Vasy is a pretty average starter. Domingue is just not a good goalie. He’s merely not a complete sieve which is all that Tampa bay needs.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Pekka Rinne is similar in that regard although he's definitely better and more talented. Rinne is a rich mans Dubnyk, playing behind that D in Nashville all those years. Surface stats look good but a lot of the analytics say 'eh not so fast'

Prior to 17-18 ish you are correct but the last couple seasons Rinne has been legitimately very good.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Nah Vasy is a pretty average starter. Domingue is just not a good goalie. He’s merely not a complete sieve which is all that Tampa bay needs.

Nah hes elite. You just follow "advanced stats".

 

[Perfect_Drug]

As an Oiler fan, I loved Doobie in Edmonton, but we weren't particularly patient with him, and the losing really got to him.

Doobs is a MASSIVE goalie, who can cut angles due to his size alone, but he wasn't particularly athletic, and had issues with reading plays which is why Edmonton, Montreal and Nashville all gave up on him.... (something he corrected in Minny).

Minny plays a defensive system where they give him angles where he's naturally covering due to his frame, and allow him to read the plays unfold. In Edmonton, the defense was often turn-stiled, and he would need to make massive lateral moves and would spread him out to open up holes, and was frequently screened due to lack of physicality with net presence.


I like Doobie a lot, but he really only works in Minny. Happy he found success there, because he's a fantastic person, and did a lot for the Edmonton Community during his time there.

 

[SladeWilson23]

The difference is that on a YEARLY basis the Wild are the “outlier” in chance suppression despite being a normal shot suppression team. That will inflate save percentage.

Tampa and Boston have overrated goalies as well for the same way but not to quite the same degree.

Every team in the league allows roughly the same number of high danger chances per 60. Basically, all 31 teams are being squeezed in between 10 and 13 HD chances allowed per 60.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

His contract is very worrisome in the future

He's owed 4.33mil per year until April 2021... say what you will about Dubnyk but his contract is the last thing you should criticize.

 

[TJL48]

His contract is very worrisome in the future

No it is not. He is making 5 Million this year, 3.5 next, and 2.5 in his final year. He is the 21ist highest payed goalie this year. His contract I would say is actually pretty good.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Every team in the league allows roughly the same number of high danger chances per 60. Basically, all 31 teams are being squeezed in between 10 and 13 HD chances allowed per 60.

Yes but on a yearly basis the wild have the biggest gap between CA and xGA. There’s a reason their goalies have sky-high save percentages.

 

[Duke Silver]

His numbers have really dipped after the collision with Wilson.

Before: 13 GP, 93.3%, 2.14 GAA
After: 9 GP, 85.7%, 3.92 GAA

Killing my fantasy roto team.

 

[TaLoN]

He's owed 4.33mil per year until April 2021... say what you will about Dubnyk but his contract is the last thing you should criticize.

Agreed. Avg goalie making avg money, that's the best situation a team can ask for in a cap world when it comes to goaltending.

 

[GOilers88]

Dubnyk in his five seasons since joining the Wild:
144-74
2.33 GAA
.920%
20 shutouts

On a team that has never been a threat to do anything since he got there. I get not liking certain players, but to say he's had nothing to do with his own success and it's all because of the system is totally misinformed.

Is Erik Karlsson's career just a product of Ottawas system since Chabot is doing so well?

I don't think so

 

[Conbon]

I'd like to point something out here. I don't keep day by day or game by game logs, but as some of you know, I've been tracking goals every night this year. I've watched every goal scored on goalie this year, in an effort to find out if there's a correlation between poor save percentage and poor eye test goalie play and vice versa. After having to hear for years ''Our DEE is bad! That goalie isn't really bad!''. So I'm trying my hand at it.

One thing I noticed with Dubnyk was that early in the season, I counted a very high number of stoppable goals on Dubnyk, despite having a VERY good save percentage. I said to myself ''He allows a lot of poor goals for having a .930%+ save percentage right now''.

Now since drop in play in save percentage? I've noticed the stoppable goals are slowing down a lot. I did nail him on two of those three early goals he allowed last game before being pulled though. Stalock allowed some laugher's too. So my conclusion is that he wasn't playing nearly as good early in the year as his numbers said, and now he's not playing nearly as bad as his numbers have said. Call this a market correction, in that his save percentage is probably where it should be now, just how he's played on the entire year, not how he's played lately. It's the numbers evening out. Regression to the mean. The evening out of the percentages. Been a couple other guys I've noticed this with.

Would be interested in your findings later on in the year of you keep with it

 

[Bleedred]

Would be interested in your findings later on in the year of you keep with it

Thanks! This will be an all year project. Have to keep at it over a full season to see what the results are at the end. The numbers after the first month and even two into the season did not match up with what I was seeing in every case, but they’ve definitely started to take shape over the last several weeks and the further we get into the number of games played. Will update the thread I did on the by the numbers forum at season’s end!

 

[Cellee]

Dubnyk in his five seasons since joining the Wild:
144-74
2.33 GAA
.920%
20 shutouts

On a team that has never been a threat to do anything since he got there. I get not liking certain players, but to say he's had nothing to do with his own success and it's all because of the system is totally misinformed.

Is Erik Karlsson's career just a product of Ottawas system since Chabot is doing so well?

I don't think so

It is completely absurd.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Lol no. Dubs has been for many weeks at a time over the past few years the best player on the ice for the Wild. AINEC.

His cool streak right now is just that. Every goalie has them at some point.

Is he as athletic and incredible as a few of the other goalies? No, but he has solid positioning and keeps a decent cool, mostly. Mostly.

He hasn't been the same since he was hit this year. I don't know what he's battling, either his head literally or his mind, but he's been not good lately. Like, really not good.

But 90% of his body of work for the Wild say otherwise ESPECIALLY over the course of entire seasons.