Why has the USA become a sought after destination for young Canadians?

[Craig Ludwig]

Nothing has changed. This has always been happening and it's still a small minority of Canadian players.

If the Big 10 ever increases its hockey footprint where more of its schools joined and devoted resources to hockey considering they all have shitloads of money to throw at non revenue sports, then junior hockey in Canada would be worried, but as long as only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota care enough about it then it will remain a small minority. Aside from those 3 schools, there are only a handful that are rather attractive hockey schools for Canadians.

Yeah, No...Have you seen the list of D1 Schools in the U.S, there are some pretty attractive schools beyond the three you mention: Teams and Conferences - College Hockey, Inc.

Plenty of NHL players that went to these other D1 schools.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Nothing has changed. This has always been happening and it's still a small minority of Canadian players.

If the Big 10 ever increases its hockey footprint where more of its schools joined and devoted resources to hockey considering they all have shitloads of money to throw at non revenue sports, then junior hockey in Canada would be worried, but as long as only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota care enough about it then it will remain a small minority. Aside from those 3 schools, there are only a handful that are rather attractive hockey schools for Canadians.

What an outdated notion.. that only 3 schools take hockey seriously. Not even remotely true. Heck one of the schools you mentioned, Wisconsin, stinks right now.

 

[wetcoast]

I suppose, but at least other teams in the BCHL are getting the top recruits. Victoria has a great program and they got Wood and Newhook. And Trail got Kent Johnson to play for them.

Fair points but my point was that some teams have a distinct geographical and/or general appeal like Merrit in the BCJHL or Prince George in the WHL in an open system.

 

[Postulates]

Nothing has changed. This has always been happening and it's still a small minority of Canadian players.

If the Big 10 ever increases its hockey footprint where more of its schools joined and devoted resources to hockey considering they all have shitloads of money to throw at non revenue sports, then junior hockey in Canada would be worried, but as long as only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota care enough about it then it will remain a small minority. Aside from those 3 schools, there are only a handful that are rather attractive hockey schools for Canadians.

i would love to see a school like ohio state throw more money into their program they get good results with a very low investment into hockey currently, sleeping giant resource wise

 

[HuGo Sham]

for the same reason many of us would:

college education, degree
less games, less travel, more time in the weight room and practice
the college experience, social life etc

 

[WaW]

Yeah, No...Have you seen the list of D1 Schools in the U.S, there are some pretty attractive schools beyond the three you mention: Teams and Conferences - College Hockey, Inc.

Plenty of NHL players that went to these other D1 schools.

For Americans sure. They also have some Canadians sure, but not anywhere near as many of the star players that would both choose NCAA over CHL and be major impact players in college.

This obviously doesn't apply to the WHL footprint since that's been a problem for decades due to the geographic barriers of that league...primarily referring to those who forgo the OHL.

The star Canadian players forgoing the OHL for thr NCAA pretty much go to Michigan.

 

[ponder]

The schedule and lifestyle is the most similar to the NHL; whilst I would agree that the NCAA route is probably best for individual development, in terms of preparing you to be a professional, that is where the main benefit of the CHL is

Yeah, though it's only a small win over the USHL - the USHL schedule/lifestyle is pretty similar to the CHL.

FWIW, I do think that just USHL vs. CHL, CHL is still the superior development league ... if you ignore post USHL/CHL options. But including post USHL/CHL options, I think the CHL is simply the wrong choice for most top prospects. The CHL has gotten so used to being the "only dog in town" (from back when the USHL was weaker), that they've kind of stopped caring about being an attractive destination for prospects to develop their game, they just assume prospects are going to pick them, and instead focus on trapping prospects in the CHL for as long as possible. They do this via:

- Explicitly preventing CHLers from going to the AHL until they've completed their "4 years of service"

- Putting zero effort into allowing prospects to go from CHL -> NCAA. For example, CHL compensation could be completely optional, could let prospects opt out of compensation if they want to keep the NCAA as an option. The CHL could still pay for expenses like equipment, housing, travel, etc., as the USHL does, I believe they'd just have to let players opt out of things like the weekly stipend (only ~$100/week anyways) and performance bonuses. IMO they put no effort into this for the same reason they don't let players got to the AHL, they want to trap star players in the CHL for as long as possible, to make it easier to sell tickets, merch, etc.

If they fixed the above 2, they'd become a stronger choice for prospect development than the USHL, but for now they prefer to try to trap top prospects vs. being the most attractive spot for top prospects. I'm hopeful that if the USHL keeps soaking up more and more top North American prospects, the CHL will change their ways. Even as a Canadian, if my son was a high end prospect, I'd encourage him to go with the USHL over the CHL to keep his NCAA and AHL options open.

 

[WaW]

i would love to see a school like ohio state throw more money into their program they get good results with a very low investment into hockey currently, sleeping giant resource wise

Agreed, but Ohio State is beyond obsessed with Michigan to the point where they probably don't throw money at it simply to avoid getting dominated by Michigan when all things are equal, lol.

Their athletic department's entire identity is beating Michigan, and you can put an APB out on the entire school when they lose to Michigan at anything that they even remotely care about.

 

[ponder]

Also, I think ppl writing off this trend as "its always happened" are wrong. The quality of Canadian prospects going to the USHL is way higher than it used to be. For example, we have:

- Top Canadian from the 2021 draft (Owen Power, 1st overall 2021) chose the USHL over the CHL
- Likely #2 Canadian from the 2023 draft (Adam Fantilli, likely 2nd overall 2023) chose the USHL over the CHL
- Likely top Canadian from the 2024 draft (Macklin Celebrini, likely 1st or 2nd overall in 2023) chose the USHL over the CHL

I think if you were to say "who are the top 4 prospects from the 2021-2024 drafts combined", it'd be Bedard, Celebrini, Power and Fantilli, and 3 of those 4 chose the USHL over the CHL (likely to keep NCAA/AHL options open). That's unprecedented, AFAIK.

We've also seen a perfect example with Shane Wright of how much of a liability choosing the CHL is. His past season was a development nightmare due to "CHL entrapment":
- Ideally he would've been in the AHL (or NCAA) all year, but he's a CHLer so those weren't options
- Instead his only options were NHL or CHL (other than hacking in the odd AHL games with conditioning stints)
- He was really not NHL ready, but Seattle thought his CHL team (Kingston) would be bad for his development
- Because the NCAA and AHL weren't options, and they really didn't want him in Kingston, so Seattle decided to pull this crazy gambit of keeping him in the NHL, where he got next to zero ice time (simply wasn't ready), but telling Kingston "we won't return him to the OHL until you trade him"
- Took the strong majority of the season until Kingston caved, and Wright was barely playing that whole time. Then even when he did get meaningful minutes, it was back in the OHL (on Windsor), when the AHL would have been better for his development

 

[ichbinkanadier]

A better question is why don't the top junior players go to Europe (like Auston Matthews)?

Short schedules, plenty of days off, decent money, better competition...

 

[Postulates]

A better question is why don't the top junior players go to Europe (like Auston Matthews)?

Short schedules, plenty of days off, decent money, better competition...

Work Visas why leave your continent etc

 

[ichbinkanadier]

Work Visas why leave your continent etc

Why leave? To make money.

Why play for free when you can get paid?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Also, I think ppl writing off this trend as "its always happened" are wrong. The quality of Canadian prospects going to the USHL is way higher than it used to be. For example, we have:

- Top Canadian from the 2021 draft (Owen Power, 1st overall 2021) chose the USHL over the CHL
- Likely #2 Canadian from the 2023 draft (Adam Fantilli, likely 2nd overall 2023) chose the USHL over the CHL
- Likely top Canadian from the 2024 draft (Macklin Celebrini, likely 1st or 2nd overall in 2023) chose the USHL over the CHL

I think if you were to say "who are the top 4 prospects from the 2021-2024 drafts combined", it'd be Bedard, Celebrini, Power and Fantilli, and 3 of those 4 chose the USHL over the CHL (likely to keep NCAA/AHL options open). That's unprecedented, AFAIK.

We've also seen a perfect example with Shane Wright of how much of a liability choosing the CHL is. His past season was a development nightmare due to "CHL entrapment":
- Ideally he would've been in the AHL (or NCAA) all year, but he's a CHLer so those weren't options
- Instead his only options were NHL or CHL (other than hacking in the odd AHL games with conditioning stints)
- He was really not NHL ready, but Seattle thought his CHL team (Kingston) would be bad for his development
- Because the NCAA and AHL weren't options, and they really didn't want him in Kingston, Seattle decided to pull this crazy gambit of keeping him in the NHL, where he got next to zero ice time (simply wasn't ready), but telling Kingston "we won't return him to the OHL until you trade him"
- Took the strong majority of the season until Kingston caved, and Wright was barely playing that whole time. Then even when he did get meaningful minutes, it was back in the OHL (on Windsor), when the AHL would have been better for his development

You wonder if at some point a lot of things will start to get re-evaluated with the major junior system. Players being beholden to potentially really bad junior teams because they hold draft rights until they get traded, the long schedule, the stipend system as it relates to future NCAA eligibility, the agreement where the NHL teams must return Junior-aged players to their junior team if they don't keep them in the NHL.... all of this was all fine and dandy when the major junior leagues could get away with it because they were the only show in town.... but the game has changed and there's a lot of paths now.

here was the 1998 NHL Draft 1st Round based on league drafted out of

1) QMJHL

2) OHL

3) WHL

4) OHL

5) Russia

6) OHL

7) OHL

8) OHL

9) OHL

10) Kazakhstan

11) OHL

12) QMJHL

13) OHL

14) OHL

15) QMJHL

16) QMJHL

17) OHL

18) Russia

19) WHL

20) WHL

21) QMJHL

22) QMJHL

23) Czech Republic

24) Sweden

25) QMJHL

26) NCAA

27) WHL

You wanted to go be an NHL player? If you were North American, you went to the CHL league that corresponded to your region. That is just how things were done back then. That was the path you followed and it was the path that every other player followed. You wanted to go to college? Well, you gotta wait a year to be eligible for the draft, so now you're getting drafted against kids a year younger than you, so you really better stand head and shoulders above.

That sort of composition isn't how Drafts work in the present days. I saw one mock draft recently (no idea how good that particular one was) where out of 32 potential first round selections, 12 of them were players from the OHL, WHL and QMJHL combined. All these CHL protectionist measures designed to ensure that all 60-some teams or whatever are able to sell a lot of tickets and such that are in place because they've been in place for a long time, you start to wonder how good or sustainable that is. If they are going to keep behaving like it's 1998, then you start to wonder if at some point their preeminent position is going to slip.

 

[ponder]

You wonder if at some point a lot of things will start to get re-evaluated with the major junior system. Players being beholden to potentially really bad junior teams because they hold draft rights until they get traded, the long schedule, the stipend system as it relates to future NCAA eligibility, the agreement where the NHL teams must return Junior-aged players to their junior team if they don't keep them in the NHL.... all of this was all fine and dandy when the major junior leagues could get away with it because they were the only show in town.... but the game has changed and there's a lot of paths now.

here was the 1998 NHL Draft 1st Round based on league drafted out of

1) QMJHL

2) OHL

3) WHL

4) OHL

5) Russia

6) OHL

7) OHL

8) OHL

9) OHL

10) Kazakhstan

11) OHL

12) QMJHL

13) OHL

14) OHL

15) QMJHL

16) QMJHL

17) OHL

18) Russia

19) WHL

20) WHL

21) QMJHL

22) QMJHL

23) Czech Republic

24) Sweden

25) QMJHL

26) NCAA

27) WHL

You wanted to go be an NHL player? If you were North American, you went to the CHL league that corresponded to your region. That is just how things were done back then. That was the path you followed and it was the path that every other player followed. You wanted to go to college? Well, you gotta wait a year to be eligible for the draft, so now you're getting drafted against kids a year younger than you, so you really better stand head and shoulders above.

That sort of composition isn't how Drafts work in the present days. I saw one mock draft recently (no idea how good that particular one was) where out of 32 potential first round selections, 12 of them were players from the OHL, WHL and QMJHL combined. All these CHL protectionist measures designed to ensure that all 60-some teams or whatever are able to sell a lot of tickets and such that are in place because they've been in place for a long time, you start to wonder how good or sustainable that is. If they are going to keep behaving like it's 1998, then you start to wonder if at some point their preeminent position is going to slip.

Yeah, IMO it's similar to monopolies in any business - when a business is a true monopoly, they stop caring about customer experience and providing good value, and just focus on extracting maximum $$$ from them. But if there's competition in the market, they have to focus on customer experience and value, or they'll lose all their customers.

The CHL used to basically have a monopoly on high end prospect development, from ages ~16-20. Now there's a lot more competition:

- For North Americans the USHL/NCAA/AHL development path is really good now

- For Europeans often their country has a similarly nice path from junior to "tier 2 men's league" to "tier 1 men's league", again allowing prospects to move up basically as soon as they're ready. And even where only junior to tier 1 men's league is possible (e.g. teams move up/down between tier 1 and 2, and the player was drafted by a team now in tier 1), there's often a good "loan" system, where if a player is too good for junior but not good enough for the tier 1 men's league team, they'll loan the player to a tier 2 team or easier-to-crack tier 1 team

I think this trend of less and less top prospects choosing the CHL is only going to accelerate, if the CHL keeps all of their development-hostile, protectionist policies in place.

 

[Brodeur]

A better question is why don't the top junior players go to Europe (like Auston Matthews)?

Short schedules, plenty of days off, decent money, better competition...

https://thehockeynews.com/news/report-visa-issue-may-prevent-top-prospect-auston-matthews-from-playing-in-switzerland

https://www.si.com/nhl/2015/08/14/ap-hko-matthews-switzerland

He is already skating with the team, but will miss the first four games because his Swiss work visa only kicks in when he turns 18.

Matthews was a very specific case. He had to be 18 to get the proper paperwork. Since Matthews just missed the cutoff for the 2015 NHL Draft by two days, Europe was a more feasible option. Matthews turned 18 on September 17, 2015. He had to sit out the first few games of the season but was able to play the majority of the season. Somebody like Adam Fantilli (October 12 birthday) would have had to sit out longer.

So that option wouldn't necessarily work for a normal draft prospect who's born January-March. Comically I remember during Jack Hughes' draft year that somebody suggested that Hughes should have done the Matthews route and not doing so was a red flag; Hughes turned 18 after the most of the European leagues had concluded.

Connor Bedard doesn't turn 18 until July, so getting a visa might not have been an option to play this past season. Zach Benson turned 18 last week.

Not sure if the other European league have similar visa rules. I know some of the CHL guys went during the pandemic year to get some playing time but that felt like extenuating circumstances rather than something they wanted to do.

 

[ichbinkanadier]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/report-visa-issue-may-prevent-top-prospect-auston-matthews-from-playing-in-switzerland

https://www.si.com/nhl/2015/08/14/ap-hko-matthews-switzerland

Matthews was a very specific case. He had to be 18 to get the proper paperwork. Since Matthews just missed the cutoff for the 2015 NHL Draft by two days, Europe was a more feasible option. Matthews turned 18 on September 17, 2015. He had to sit out the first few games of the season but was able to play the majority of the season. Somebody like Adam Fantilli (October 12 birthday) would have had to sit out longer.

So that option wouldn't necessarily work for a normal draft prospect who's born January-March. Comically I remember during Jack Hughes' draft year that somebody suggested that Hughes should have done the Matthews route and not doing so was a red flag; Hughes turned 18 after the most of the European leagues had concluded.

Connor Bedard doesn't turn 18 until July, so getting a visa might not have been an option to play this past season. Zach Benson turned 18 last week.

Not sure if the other European league have similar visa rules. I know some of the CHL guys went during the pandemic year to get some playing time but that felt like extenuating circumstances rather than something they wanted to do.

Ah. Didn't think of the age requirements. Makes sense

 

[Bubbles]

Matthews was a very specific case. He had to be 18 to get the proper paperwork. Since Matthews just missed the cutoff for the 2015 NHL Draft by two days, Europe was a more feasible option. Matthews turned 18 on September 17, 2015. He had to sit out the first few games of the season but was able to play the majority of the season. Somebody like Adam Fantilli (October 12 birthday) would have had to sit out longer.

So that option wouldn't necessarily work for a normal draft prospect who's born January-March. Comically I remember during Jack Hughes' draft year that somebody suggested that Hughes should have done the Matthews route and not doing so was a red flag; Hughes turned 18 after the most of the European leagues had concluded.

Connor Bedard doesn't turn 18 until July, so getting a visa might not have been an option to play this past season. Zach Benson turned 18 last week.

Not sure if the other European league have similar visa rules. I know some of the CHL guys went during the pandemic year to get some playing time but that felt like extenuating circumstances rather than something they wanted to do.

Yep, excellent post. It's why no one else has taken the same route as Matthews.

Other factors are:

Marc Crawford was the coach of Zurich and Matthews was not going to sign unless Crow was there. Added to that, a European coach is unlikely to give ice time to a North American player.

Matthews did not really want to play college hockey, which is rare for a prospect.

Also, Matthews got $400,000 for playing that one year. Not bad for a just turned 18 year old.