Speculation: Why buying out Samuelsson really makes sense

[ricky0034]

That's not the point. I don't necessarily disagree that Ferraro projects to be better than Emmerton currently is, or that, long-term, Ferraro is more attractive. But the keyword there is "project." Emmerton has 139 NHL games under his belt, including 18 playoff games. We know what we have with him. Ferraro has 0 NHL games. He's a complete unknown in the NHL.

exactly!

if you think about it it really makes no sense that some people around here wanted Seth Jones earlier in the year

I mean he might never even be half the player Lashoff is

 

[HTT3*]

Of course there's a reason.

He's on the wrong side of 35 and he's going to stay there. He's more injury prone for it and he's lost speed for it.

No, there's no reason for it. It would be foolish of KH to buy out Sammy. He's aged, lost a slight step, but will still bring lots of leadership and much needed depth scoring to the team.

If Samuelsson has surgery, he won't be eligible to be bought out.

If he is bought out we just paid him what 3.5 million for 8 games, ouch.

Who's "we"? Unless they changed the rules and I didn't know about it, if Sammy is on IR, his salary doesn't count against the cap.

Not sure that Sammy's quite good enough to be considered the sole difference-maker to not only get us past the Hawks, but also past the Kings. I kinda doubt that Quenneville was telling his guys "Thank God that Sammy is out for this series! Put that guy on the ice and we are completely screwed!"

I just don't see Sammy putting up that many points for us. He's not good enough for top 6 duty and it's not like Andersson and Emmerton are skilled playmakers to set up his offense in the bottom 6.

Wings lost by one goal in OT, and lost by one goal in GM#6. Given the fact that Sammy is clutch, his scoring would have been a warm welcome had he been healthy and time to gel with the team.

The End Line

It would be foolish to buy out Sammy. Scoring depth wins championships, and with the transition of young players, his veteran leadership is a plus.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Who's "we"? Unless they changed the rules and I didn't know about it, if Sammy is on IR, his salary doesn't count against the cap.

He still gets paid on IR, so even at a little over half his salary this year and two million with the buyout, he made a lot of money for doing very little.

I will say though Sammy and Bert are very popular guys in that dressing room when people throw around them being bought out. This is a tough business so it might not save them, but it will impact the room a little more than some people think in my opinion. Don't think Bert gets bought out at all, but it is worth pointing out on both guys.

 

[Brick Top]

Wings lost by one goal in OT, and lost by one goal in GM#6. Given the fact that Sammy is clutch, his scoring would have been a warm welcome had he been healthy and time to gel with the team.

The End Line

It would be foolish to buy out Sammy. Scoring depth wins championships, and with the transition of young players, his veteran leadership is a plus.

You can make the case that Sammy was clutch in his PO runs through the 09/10 season, but here's his sum total of clutch in his last 3 (and therefore most relevant) playoffs:

23 GP 2 G's 8 A's

I don't see that offensive output as an indicator that he'd have been any kind of difference maker for the Wings against Chicago. You must be focusing on the 2010 and prior playoffs in judging players' performances... it'd be like saying that Franzen is still a playoff beast, when he hasn't been much of a post-season factor since the 2010 playoffs.

 

[Henkka]

I have my own formulas for player's pure socring power. It's mainly based on goals/icetime, but it also takes shooting and assists in account. Shooting creates rebounds/second chances and passing (assists) of course creates chances. But these have lesser weight in my formula because usually the second assist could be pretty meaningless.

Rankings from last season (regular season + possible playoff production together):

1. Brunner 40.4
(X. Bryan Bickell 38.7)
(X. Nathan Horton 37.3)
2. Tatar 36.6
3. Datsyuk 34.0
4. Franzen 32.4
(X. David Clarkson 32.3)
5. Zetterberg 31.4
------------------
6. Abdelkader 25.4
7. Cleary 24.8
8. Bertuzzi 21.7
9. Filppula 21.4
10. Nyquist 20.9
----------------
11. Samuelsson 17.1
12. Tootoo 14.9
13. Miller 14.8
14. Emmerton 13.3
15. Andersson 12.6
16. Eaves 12.6
---------------
17. Helm (unranked)
18. Mursak (unranked)



Trusting in these values, I think our greatest and sure summer "acquisition" will be Tatar. And I think Damien is the best kept secrect in NHL. Brunner should be re-signed as a no-brainer as soon as possible. I really think Brunner will be our best scorer in few years, when Dats and Z will regress offensively.

Bertuzzi played only 7 games, but when he was healthy, he was ok productive with this formula. His rating was 33.3 with those regular season games, but those 6 games without points and playing out of shape at playoffs lowered his production for sure. I really hope he is healthy again at next season. He is that size we need, and lacked at last season.

Nyquist has almost equal shooting/minute + ass/min values than Tatar, Tatar just scored more goals. Tatar's sample size was pretty small, so it could also be luck. With more games for both, they could have swapped places. But both have all the tools to score much.

Cleary had decent numbers despite all of that hate, same as Abdelkader. Maybe Datsyuk carried them both to good values. Maybe Datsyuk would have 50.0 rating with better linemates, who knows. But that's the Wings way to create depth, put Pavel to carry two pylons.

4th line didn't have very much production, none of those guys are anyhow important. Tootoo is the goon, fine with that. Emmerton is cheapest possible depth. Andersson is a rising young defensive center, who can produce at lower level. I think the NHL production also will come in the future. Miller, Eaves and Samuelsson could be replaced by almost any average player.

Get one UFA, sign Brunner and Cleary, get healthy Helm back and add Tatar, Nyquist, Andersson. That's 12 forwards already. Anything more than that is just depth.

5 million for Filppula would be a HUGE mistake. Even 4 million is an overpayment. It has to be that +30.0 rating to belong to that "TOP6" to even think about that kind of money.

 

[Henkka]

If Samuelsson gets bought out for 2 million, his second stint with Wings have cost total 3.65 million. He earned 1.65 million reduced salary at this season (shortened season, everybody got ~55% of current salary)

So it would be 9 games for 3.65 million, 406k per game.

BUT...

...This is not the worst value ever at Red Wings.

Uwe Krupp was signed for 4 years, total 16 million at summer of 1998. He played only 32 games as a Red Wing. That was 16mil/32games = 500k per game.

Still the biggest mistake from Holland = Uwe Krupp.

 

[HTT3*]

He still gets paid on IR, so even at a little over half his salary this year and two million with the buyout, he made a lot of money for doing very little.

I will say though Sammy and Bert are very popular guys in that dressing room when people throw around them being bought out. This is a tough business so it might not save them, but it will impact the room a little more than some people think in my opinion. Don't think Bert gets bought out at all, but it is worth pointing out on both guys.

My understanding is if he is on LTIR, his cap and roster spot doesn't count.

You can make the case that Sammy was clutch in his PO runs through the 09/10 season, but here's his sum total of clutch in his last 3 (and therefore most relevant) playoffs:

23 GP 2 G's 8 A's

I don't see that offensive output as an indicator that he'd have been any kind of difference maker for the Wings against Chicago. You must be focusing on the 2010 and prior playoffs in judging players' performances... it'd be like saying that Franzen is still a playoff beast, when he hasn't been much of a post-season factor since the 2010 playoffs.

Lol, are you seriously using his stats from the crappy Panthers team
He's not a star, he's a complimentary depth player. The almighty Panthers. LMAO

I guess you are using 2013 stats too, when he played all of what... 4 regular season games and never had time to gel or get back into game shape?

You're cherry picking.

Sammy has scored 103 regular season points the past 3 years (not counting his 4 games in detroit), at a scoring pace of .066. He scored 62 goals!

Not counting Detroit series, (because obviously even a Crosby or Datsyuk type player wouldn't even be productive if the missed an entire year and didn't get into game shape, you can't expect Sammy to be either), Samuelsson scored 23 points in 30 playoff points his prior 3 years. One of those years were on the almighty Panthers team, that's pretty damn good!

 

[HTT3*]

Still the biggest mistake from Holland = Uwe Krupp.

6'6", 255ibs playing monstrous in Colorado. If only hindsight was 20/20. Guess it's Holland's fault for wasting a 1st rounder on Jiri Fischer, too

 

[Brick Top]

Lol, are you seriously using his stats from the crappy Panthers team
He's not a star, he's a complimentary depth player. The almighty Panthers. LMAO

I guess you are using 2013 stats too, when he played all of what... 4 regular season games and never had time to gel or get back into game shape?

You're cherry picking.

Sammy has scored 103 regular season points the past 3 years (not counting his 4 games in detroit), at a scoring pace of .066. He scored 62 goals!

Not counting Detroit series, (because obviously even a Crosby or Datsyuk type player wouldn't even be productive if the missed an entire year and didn't get into game shape, you can't expect Sammy to be either), Samuelsson scored 23 points in 30 playoff points his prior 3 years. One of those years were on the almighty Panthers team, that's pretty damn good!

Easy there, big fella, I'm just saying he has been a non-factor in the last 3 playoff runs he's played in. I'm not saying he's the sole reason any of his teams lost, but it's pretty clear he wasn't a reason that they won anything, either (hence my position that even if he was healthy, he wouldn't have done anything to put the Wings over the top against Chicago).

You said that depth scoring wins championships, and he didn't provide it. Sorry if you wish he put up better numbers, but it just didn't happen. To some extent, it doesn't matter what team a guy's on in the playoffs- a depth scoring forward kinda needs to score to help his team win. Which he was unable to do.

It's not cherry picking to take the most recent playoff results for an aging player, because those are obviously the most relevant- cherry picking would be to claim that he's the same exact player 3 years ago in the PO's when he put up 15 pts. The dude's 36 years old now, not 26- it's not like it's realistic to chalk up 3 ineffective post-seasons to a slump and expect him to rediscover his game and help a team for the next 10 years. He is what he is at this point in his career, he won't be getting any better, and he's easily replaceable.

 

[Henkka]

Depth scoring is important of course. But now, in this Sammy case, we are having that depth enough from other players. We already have that depth without Sammy, but buying Sammy out we get enough capspace to hunt for 1st line scoring.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

guys,aging depth scoring is what teams need whos core superstar players are in their prime(think hawks, pens, bruins, kings)

those are the kind of teams who could benefit from a guy like sammy

what detroit needs is to add either;
-young good players to help form our core
-roster room and opportinity for young players from within our system to develop and begin to form our next core

that is all

 

[waltdetroit]

If Samuelsson gets bought out for 2 million, his second stint with Wings have cost total 3.65 million. He earned 1.65 million reduced salary at this season (shortened season, everybody got ~55% of current salary)

So it would be 9 games for 3.65 million, 406k per game.

BUT...

...This is not the worst value ever at Red Wings.

Uwe Krupp was signed for 4 years, total 16 million at summer of 1998. He played only 32 games as a Red Wing. That was 16mil/32games = 500k per game.

Still the biggest mistake from Holland = Uwe Krupp.

FRom Wikipedia
"Uwe G. Krupp is a retired German professional hockey defenceman and former coach of the German national ice hockey team. Following Walt Tkaczuk, Krupp was only the second German-born player to have a lasting career in the National Hockey League. Wikipedia"

Sorry ...you mean the person not place

 

[Flowah]

guys,aging depth scoring is what teams need whos core superstar players are in their prime(think hawks, pens, bruins, kings)

those are the kind of teams who could benefit from a guy like sammy

what detroit needs is to add either;
-young good players to help form our core
-roster room and opportinity for young players from within our system to develop and begin to form our next core

that is all

Absolutely 100%.

Successful teams lock up their core long term and surround them with some of their best young drafted talent, and some FA pickups/trades to fill in the gaps with established players.

Then when your core gets older, 35-37, you sign them to a few years at a lower cost if possible since they'll likely have slowed down, and you make that drafted talent that hopefully has panned out, your new core and lock them up.

We're almost out of time to do that.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If Samuelsson gets bought out for 2 million, his second stint with Wings have cost total 3.65 million. He earned 1.65 million reduced salary at this season (shortened season, everybody got ~55% of current salary)

So it would be 9 games for 3.65 million, 406k per game.

BUT...

...This is not the worst value ever at Red Wings.

Uwe Krupp was signed for 4 years, total 16 million at summer of 1998. He played only 32 games as a Red Wing. That was 16mil/32games = 500k per game.

Still the biggest mistake from Holland = Uwe Krupp.

They actually recovered some of Krupp's money if I remember right. He was in violation of his contract when he was injured, tried lying about it to cover it up and then fessed up. Still I don't think he saw all of that contract.

My understanding is if he is on LTIR, his cap and roster spot doesn't count.

I already said I understand that, but Sammy still gets paid. So what it doesn't count against the cap, you still think Ilitch, Holland or anyone but Sammy is thrilled at the fact he is going to make 3.65 million for nine games of hockey?

 

[Winger98]

I already said I understand that, but Sammy still gets paid. So what it doesn't count against the cap, you still think Ilitch, Holland or anyone but Sammy is thrilled at the fact he is going to make 3.65 million for nine games of hockey?

I think they understand it's a physical sport and injuries happen. Also, insurance likely picked up a portion of Sammy's salary.

 

[HTT3*]

Easy there, big fella, I'm just saying he has been a non-factor in the last 3 playoff runs he's played in. I'm not saying he's the sole reason any of his teams lost, but it's pretty clear he wasn't a reason that they won anything, either (hence my position that even if he was healthy, he wouldn't have done anything to put the Wings over the top against Chicago).

You said that depth scoring wins championships, and he didn't provide it. Sorry if you wish he put up better numbers, but it just didn't happen. To some extent, it doesn't matter what team a guy's on in the playoffs- a depth scoring forward kinda needs to score to help his team win. Which he was unable to do.

It's not cherry picking to take the most recent playoff results for an aging player, because those are obviously the most relevant- cherry picking would be to claim that he's the same exact player 3 years ago in the PO's when he put up 15 pts. The dude's 36 years old now, not 26- it's not like it's realistic to chalk up 3 ineffective post-seasons to a slump and expect him to rediscover his game and help a team for the next 10 years. He is what he is at this point in his career, he won't be getting any better, and he's easily replaceable.

Your logic has no reason to it, it's cretinous.

In 2012 playoffs, Datsyuk got injured during a 70 game season, played 5 games in the playoffs to score an whopping 3 points. He gets paid $6.7 million.

Samuelsson, who is by no means on Datsyuk's level of play, was out all regular season (well, played a sporadic 4 games throughout the year), played 5 playoff games and scored 2 points, 1 less point than the a player making $6.7 per year.

While I agree Datsyuk is a much better player than Samuelsson when he isn't scoring, he is also getting paid over twice as much. The point is, even an elite player can't overcome rust/injury in the playoffs, how can you expect Samuelsson?

There's no question if Samuelsson would have gotten in 30-35 games in, time to gel, and was in game shape and healthy for the playoffs, he would have produced. How many 1 goal games did Detroit lose to Chicago? The answer is two; games 6 and game 7. I am confident that Samuelsson would have increased the teams' chances to win the series if he scored at least 1 point in either of those games.

Would he have? Who knows. But the facts remain the same. He is a known and proven clutch goal scorer in the playoffs.

Unlike you, I am sure both Ken Holland and Mike Babcock would have been tickled pink had Samuelsson been in game shape and healthy for the playoffs. Because instead of bickering about which low caliber player KH should sign this summer, that likely won't improve the team that much anyhow, maybe instead we would be celebrating a WCF appearance... and possibly a SCF appearance.

Buying out Samuelsson makes absolutely no sense at all. Only a handful of arm-chair GMs thinks it does, but in reality; real world NHL hockey, it doesn't make any sense... it's reckless and irresponsible and doesn't help the DRWs except losing a depth goal scorer while still losing some cap space in the buyout.

 

[Henkka]

Buying out Samuelsson makes absolutely no sense at all. Only a handful of arm-chair GMs thinks it does, but in reality; real world NHL hockey, it doesn't make any sense... it's reckless and irresponsible and doesn't help the DRWs except losing a depth goal scorer while still losing some cap space in the buyout.

All this speculation is based on the caphit free compliance buyout. Get more cap room to get a better player than Samuelsson on the roster. When you get one borderline 1st line player, that pushes another player behind him in hierarchy to replace that depth player spot Samuelsson currently is.

We don't have enough cap room to get a Horton-level player for now. We have that approximated 4.0 million in space after all re-signings.

3.0 million Samuelsson + 4.0 million cap space (other 2nd tier UFA with out any guarantee, Cleary/Miller as backup plan?)

vs.

4-5 million "Horton/Clarkson" + 2-3 million cap space for (Cleary/Miller)

 

[HTT3*]

All this speculation is based on the caphit free compliance buyout. Get more cap room to get a better player than Samuelsson on the roster. When you get one borderline 1st line player, that pushes another player behind him in hierarchy to replace that depth player spot Samuelsson currently is.

We don't have enough cap room to get a Horton-level player for now. We have that approximated 4.0 million in space after all re-signings.

3.0 million Samuelsson + 4.0 million cap space (other 2nd tier UFA with out any guarantee, Cleary/Miller as backup plan?)

vs.

4-5 million "Horton/Clarkson" + 2-3 million cap space for (Cleary/Miller)

Why do people think Horton is going to get less than $6 million is beyond me? Clarkson, I'll pass. Just re-sign Filppula and call it a day.

 

[Brick Top]

Your logic has no reason to it, it's cretinous.

In 2012 playoffs, Datsyuk got injured during a 70 game season, played 5 games in the playoffs to score an whopping 3 points. He gets paid $6.7 million.

Samuelsson, who is by no means on Datsyuk's level of play, was out all regular season (well, played a sporadic 4 games throughout the year), played 5 playoff games and scored 2 points, 1 less point than the a player making $6.7 per year.

While I agree Datsyuk is a much better player than Samuelsson when he isn't scoring, he is also getting paid over twice as much. The point is, even an elite player can't overcome rust/injury in the playoffs, how can you expect Samuelsson?

There's no question if Samuelsson would have gotten in 30-35 games in, time to gel, and was in game shape and healthy for the playoffs, he would have produced. How many 1 goal games did Detroit lose to Chicago? The answer is two; games 6 and game 7. I am confident that Samuelsson would have increased the teams' chances to win the series if he scored at least 1 point in either of those games.

Would he have? Who knows. But the facts remain the same. He is a known and proven clutch goal scorer in the playoffs.

Unlike you, I am sure both Ken Holland and Mike Babcock would have been tickled pink had Samuelsson been in game shape and healthy for the playoffs. Because instead of bickering about which low caliber player KH should sign this summer, that likely won't improve the team that much anyhow, maybe instead we would be celebrating a WCF appearance... and possibly a SCF appearance.

Buying out Samuelsson makes absolutely no sense at all. Only a handful of arm-chair GMs thinks it does, but in reality; real world NHL hockey, it doesn't make any sense... it's reckless and irresponsible and doesn't help the DRWs except losing a depth goal scorer while still losing some cap space in the buyout.

My reasoning is based on his last 3 playoff performances (not solely this year's) and you say that's cretinous... you may want to google that word for the meaning

Given Sammy's lack of production in his previous 2 playoffs, and the fact that he's not getting any younger, I'm not sure why you think he'd just roll in and punch the Wings' ticket to the WCF... or even the SCF's??????? If you honestly think that #37 is good enough to put the Wings over the top against Chicago AND the Kings, then it's no wonder you think his contract is $3M well spent.

KH wouldn't be losing capspace as it'd be a cap compliance buyout. Take the $3M from Sammy's deal and the (no way in hell he's worth it) $5M+ for Flip, and spend it on Horton and your boy Stalberg instead.

And scene.

 

[jaster]

I hate the term "we know what we have with ______". Especially when what we know about that player is that they are nothing special.

Seems like a low risk high reward proposition to give Ferraro a bottom 6 roster spot over Emmerton. We know Ferraro is faster, has a better shot, and has been playing big PK minutes in GR. I like our chances with that one.

Everyone was a complete unknown in the AHL. We didn't know what we had with Nyquist or Andersson. When we found out we were glad to have them.

You're taking that statement out of context. My point wasn't that Emmerton is special or or that Ferraro shouldn't be given a chance because he's an unknown or that Emmerton shouldn't be supplanted by Ferraro at some point. In fact, this was never supposed to be a Ferraro vs Emmerton discussion (it was Miller vs Emmerton/Ferraro). I don't like the idea of letting Miller walk AND immediately replacing him with Ferraro. I'd like to see Ferraro get worked in a little slower than that. I'd rather he not be thrown in with expectations to do what Miller did while having 0 NHL games under his belt.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

sammy is a wasted roster spot and cap space

if we want his production(or what we think he could/would produce) we're better off finding it in a player under 30 who can play in our top 6 for years to come

sammy is better suited for a boston or chicago or la. teams who dont need young top 6 players but rather depth bottom 6 forwards

 

[SoupNazi]

sammy is a wasted roster spot and cap space

if we want his production(or what we think he could/would produce) we're better off finding it in a player under 30 who can play in our top 6 for years to come

sammy is better suited for a boston or chicago or la. teams who dont need young top 6 players but rather depth bottom 6 forwards

So who do you suggest?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

So who do you suggest?

ufa market?
-clarkson
-horton
-weiss

trade route?
-no idea who is available

internally?
-nyquist
-tatar

its nbot that sammy is bad or anything its just that what he brings at his age and cap hit is redundant

 

[Frk It]

You're taking that statement out of context. My point wasn't that Emmerton is special or or that Ferraro shouldn't be given a chance because he's an unknown or that Emmerton shouldn't be supplanted by Ferraro at some point. In fact, this was never supposed to be a Ferraro vs Emmerton discussion (it was Miller vs Emmerton/Ferraro). I don't like the idea of letting Miller walk AND immediately replacing him with Ferraro. I'd like to see Ferraro get worked in a little slower than that. I'd rather he not be thrown in with expectations to do what Miller did while having 0 NHL games under his belt.

Ok, I think I misunderstood your original post then. I like what Miller brings to the bottom 6, I'm just not the biggest fan of Emmerton in the bottom 6 considering the prospects we have knocking on the door in the very near future. I would rather keep Miller and cut ties elsewhere (Cleary, Sammy, Emmerton) but that's just my opinion.

I think having Tatar, Nyquist and likely Andersson as full-time guys then having Jarnkrok, Sheahan, and Ferraro as call-up candidates actually gives us a really good mix of youth and veterans, and points us in a better direction as an organization than in the past year or two.

 

[jaster]

Ok, I think I misunderstood your original post then. I like what Miller brings to the bottom 6, I'm just not the biggest fan of Emmerton in the bottom 6 considering the prospects we have knocking on the door in the very near future. I would rather keep Miller and cut ties elsewhere (Cleary, Sammy, Emmerton) but that's just my opinion.

I think having Tatar, Nyquist and likely Andersson as full-time guys then having Jarnkrok, Sheahan, and Ferraro as call-up candidates actually gives us a really good mix of youth and veterans, and points us in a better direction as an organization than in the past year or two.

Yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. And if everything breaks right, you've got Jarnkrok, Sheahan, and Ferraro grabbing full-time roles in 2014-15, with Jurco possibly seeing his first call-up.