Speculation: Who's getting JT Compher?

[John Mandalorian]

I was hoping he’d come back to Buffalo to be a “Swiss Army” knife, 200’ player and bring a Cup background. I had thought 5x5. As some Avs fans have said, he’s clutch.

Am I wrong?

He's a right handed shot, which is often valued. He's kind of a low event player during the regular season and can't be expected to carry a line. He's decent defensively and yes, he's had some good moments in the post season. There's also a pest element to his game. Guys are frequently getting upset over something he said.

 

[seafoam]

Maybe the Islanders if they trade Pageau.

 

[quietbruinfan]

I wonder if Boston would sneak in on him once the dust settles for both sides. He is a decent, versatile finesse forward...there is some value there.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I was hoping he’d come back to Buffalo to be a “Swiss Army” knife, 200’ player and bring a Cup background. I had thought 5x5. As some Avs fans have said, he’s clutch.

Am I wrong?

I would love him on a line with Greenway and Mittelstadt, switching between C and RW. That's probably a luxury KA will not pursue with at least three very good FW prospects coming along.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Good 3rd liner. Anywhere higher in the lineup and you will hate Compher. Probably gets an outrageous contract because it's free agency and playing with the Avs big boys has inflated his numbers.

 

[BKarchitect]

Fun fact re: Compher, his usage and his career high in points. He was the 32nd ranked forward in the entire NHL in even-strength ice time this past season. He was more utilized by Bednar than Matthew Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Mitch Marner and Mark Stoen were by their respective clubs.

No joke...here's the group of forwards around him:

And it gets even crazier when you add special teams where JTC was a PK mainstay and got some PP time:

He was 15th in the entire NHL in ice time per game amongst forwards. That is absolutely bonkers.

 

[BLNY]

I'm probably one of the only JT Compher supporters among Avs fans here, and with him approaching UFA for the first time and coming off a career season of 52 points, I wonder who would be a good fit for his services?

He's not going to blow your mind game to game, and can be prone to lazy spurts, but he's as clutch as they come and always scores when it matters. He's also a great utility player, can fit anywhere in the bottom 9 and facilitate the offense.

All this said, someone is likely to badly overpay for him based on a great contract season and based on his championship pedigree. So who's it going to be?

He had a career year in a contract year. Always a red flag. He's a 30-40 point player. Another contract at his current number is reasonable. I don't see teams lining up to give him $5 million per.

 

[BKarchitect]

He had a career year in a contract year. Always a red flag. He's a 30-40 point player. Another contract at his current number is reasonable. I don't see teams lining up to give him $5 million per.

Free agency is rarely about being reasonable. You aren't wrong about who is, but I think you are wrong about what he is getting this summer.

Somebody is going to pay JTC significantly more than he is making now, take it to the bank. He plays wing, center, plays up and down the line-up, is right-hand shot, can withstand a HUGE utilization rate (see above), has experience on both special teams, has tons of post-season experience...he is exactly the profile of a guy some GM is going to pay way too much for and then some coach is going to give way too much ice time to,

 

[AvsGuy]

2019
Rd 1, Game 2 - JT Compher ties the game with 3 minutes left in the 3rd, Colorado wins in OT to tie the series

Rd 1, Game 4 - Colorado is down 2-0 halfway through the 3rd, JT Compher scores to get Avs on the board, they tie the game late and win in OT to take 3-1 series lead

Rd 2, Game 6 - Down 3-2 in the series to the Sharks, JT Compher scores 2G 1A to get the Avs to OT where they score to win 4-3 and tie the series


2022
Rd 2, Game 6 - Trying to close out the series, JT Compher ties Game 6 twice before Helm's late winner takes out the Blues

Rd 3, Game 3 - Game tied in the 3rd, JT Compher hops out of the penalty box, out works the defender, scores the SH game winner and essentially puts the WCF away


I'm cherry picking of course, but its notable the context in which he always decides to show up and go straight to the net

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Fun fact re: Compher, his usage and his career high in points. He was the 32nd ranked forward in the entire NHL in even-strength ice time this past season. He was more utilized by Bednar than Matthew Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Mitch Marner and Mark Stoen were by their respective clubs.

No joke...here's the group of forwards around him:

And it gets even crazier when you add special teams where JTC was a PK mainstay and got some PP time:

He was 15th in the entire NHL in ice time per game amongst forwards. That is absolutely bonkers.

No. It's Bednar.

 

[BKarchitect]

No. It's Bednar.

Absolutely part of it is Bednar and part of it is the Avs cobbling together line-ups with crap depth.

But I have a feeling he will be heavily utilized as a “coach’s favorite” wherever he ends up. He’s kind of an “easy button” for line-up creation. Just good enough and just versatile enough to stick in whatever gaping hole or situation. Just not good enough to excel at it.

 

[BLNY]

Free agency is rarely about being reasonable. You aren't wrong about who is, but I think you are wrong about what he is getting this summer.

The bold is always a given. No one contending is giving him $5 million per. I don't think there's a team out there that truly sees him as a legit 2c option. So it's only a bottom tier team with space that would pay him that much to be a 3c.

 

[John Mandalorian]

He had a career year in a contract year. Always a red flag. He's a 30-40 point player. Another contract at his current number is reasonable. I don't see teams lining up to give him $5 million per.

In 2 years, 5 million will seem like a lot less than it is now. That reality/rationalization drives a lot of this. Two years away from the cap going up, you might be right.

People should be careful about interpreting that it was a contract year. He played on the 2nd line and was next to Rantanen a lot during a year that Rantanen had over 50 goals. He probably should have had more.

The emphasis on usage is a very fair and valuable point to make. His production tapered off around the TDL. Avs fans interpret this as coasting after learning he’d likely remain 2C. However, it’s also been speculated that being over used was the main reason for his drop off. Lots of guys on the Avs were likely the over used.

 

[PettersonHughes]

I should have dropped some emojis in there to show i was just being silly

Lol all good, you just provided the kindling for the roasting fire that I had ready after that OEL buyout yesterday.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Lol all good, you just provided the kindling for the roasting fire that I had ready after that OEL buyout yesterday.

that one is going to be rough. years 3 and 4 where his buyout eats most of the cap growth. But it isnt Minnesota level bad though.

 

[thesaadfather]

I posted this a few weeks ago, but here's a comparable:

	Age	Exp. Cap	GP	G	A	P	+/-
JT Compher	28	$3.50	423	88	106	194	-4
Andrew Copp (2022)	28	$3.64	483	82	120	202	+69

Both guys were coming off their first 50+ point season (52 for JT, 53 for Copp), and Compher has a better track record for injuries.

Copp got $5.625x5, and with the cap rising in upcoming seasons, I expect the same or possibly even more for Compher.

As far as teams go, I'm betting on Chicago adding their hometown player.

If you’re right about the money and term he’s looking at, I have a hard time seeing Davidson being interested.

 

[elchud]

A 4x4 who will get paid 5x5, it's a thin UFA forward market, a guy who can play center, be a glue guy, has playoff experience. He will get overpaid. But might be the "best" forward in a disappointing market.

Would love him at 4x4.

 

[Bishop7979]

I don’t know why, but if I were to guess, Id say st.Louis. They have some holes in the middle six right now and he feels like a fit.

 

[rypper]

who needs a center really bad and will overpay? Vancouver is my guess. They like bad UFA deals

That was definitely true about the last band of idiots running the team, but I guess it'll take some time for the new group to shake that label.

 

[Ace]

Sydney Badger

 

[ToDavid]

Wouldn't be against that at the right price

He’s literally Kerfoot 2.0 but likely at a higher cap hit.

 

[PettersonHughes]

that one is going to be rough. years 3 and 4 where his buyout eats most of the cap growth. But it isnt Minnesota level bad though.

Lol having the most dead cap is not a superlative you'd want.

 

[biturbo19]

Someone probably pays him based on results in an Avs situation that inflated his value and ends up disappointed.


It's hard to even say with Compher. He's just such an utterly nothing, forgettable, filler sort of player. Teams that pay those guys end up regretting it. But someone is going to see the results with Colorado and thing they're translatable. Give him a decently sized contract and immediately wish they hadn't.

multiple years x $3.5M is my guess.

 

[BKarchitect]

Someone probably pays him based on results in an Avs situation that inflated his value and ends up disappointed.


It's hard to even say with Compher. He's just such an utterly nothing, forgettable, filler sort of player. Teams that pay those guys end up regretting it. But someone is going to see the results with Colorado and thing they're translatable. Give him a decently sized contract and immediately wish they hadn't.

multiple years x $3.5M is my guess.

The problem is he makes 3.5 now and he just had a career year with loads of ice time and responsibility. I’d actually take him back on the Avs at 3.5.

I don’t think, with his one chance to cash in at age 28 coming off a 52 point year where he played top six minutes and both special teams - that he is going to ‘settle’ for 3.5.

I don’t think your overall perception of him is wrong but I think he’s a notch above a forgettable filler player considering he’s made some memorable clutch moments in his time in Colorado. The truth with JTC is he’s probably made a whipping boy more because of his usage than anything else. He’s a pretty solid guy to have and as somebody who watched both JTC and Kerfoot I can tell you that comp is JTC 1,000 times out of 1,000. JTC has speed and ability to play playoff hockey that Kerfoot simply lacks.

But yes, he’s likely to be very overpaid come this fall.

 

[Peat]

Pens need a new 3C and have more cap space than trade assets.

Not wild on the guy but the Pens can clearly do worse than overpay him.