Speculation: Who wins the cup first?

[jkutswings]

With those two the sky is the limit for the oilers.

On offense, sure. But last I checked neither is a shutdown defender nor an above average (let alone elite) goaltender.

Trying to win playoff games 6-5 stopped being a viable strategy decades ago.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

On offense, sure. But last I checked neither is a shutdown defender nor an above average (let alone elite) goaltender.

Trying to win playoff games 6-5 stopped being a viable strategy decades ago.

Agreed.

I could end up eating my hat on this one but I feel like last years playoffs were a wild west aberration and playoff hockey will return to normal the next few seasons in terms of goal scoring.

 

[19 for president]

Basically this. They are the new Crosby/Malkin. They are that good.

I remember people celebrating the Penguins demise before they won again. And then again.

I don't think Nurse is Letang, though. That's a problem.

They also don't have a Fluery in goal either.

Bouchard/Nurse could make be a better top 2 than what Pitts had but will Bouchard reach that next level before contracts are up.

I still think the best thing Holland could do is trade McDavid for an absolute haul. Build around Drai and use the haul+ cap space to add a lot more defensive depth and get a real goalie.

Hollands big problem has always been his unwillingness to walk away from anything but 4th line grinders.

Holland and co could fluke a run with the right deadline adds and if Bouchard progresses. So I'd give them a higher edge.

With that said I love what Stevie is building which is the new age Bruins. A team that has competed for well over a decade now.

 

[Bondurant]

McDavid wins a Cup in the Winged Wheel.

 

[MabusIncarnate]

My gut tells me Edmonton is gonna get one in the next few years, Detroit isn't there yet.

I do think if Edvinsson pans, this team is going to be in contention in a few years and stay there for a while.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

With that said I love what Stevie is building which is the new age Bruins. A team that has competed for well over a decade now.

I f***ing hope we win more than 1 Cup in that decade though.

 

[Henkka]

My gut tells me Edmonton is gonna get one in the next few years, Detroit isn't there yet.

I do think if Edvinsson pans, this team is going to be in contention in a few years and stay there for a while.

Edmonton timing could be somewhere when the cap is higher, before McDavid/Drai extensions.

Like 2024-25, the cap could be 87M and Draisaitl on his last year. Dead cap disappears mostly from Chiarelli Lucic/Sekera mistakes and Kane+Hyman are not too old yet.

Their prospects have to pan out who are drafted some years ago, like those Holloway, Savoie, Lavoie, Samourukov etc. All depends on them to create a cheap and effective depth. And Broberg + Bouchard have to start dominate at defence.

It's their inner growth, all depends on that. The stars are there, core is there, that makes them a contender. But for a Cup win, you need that kid depth to grow big. Then they have everything set well and are "too good" team for moment, which could win.

 

[SirloinUB]

On offense, sure. But last I checked neither is a shutdown defender nor an above average (let alone elite) goaltender.

Trying to win playoff games 6-5 stopped being a viable strategy decades ago.

Hmm where have we heard this before? I'll give you a hint, think early to mid 90's. Leon and connor area generational pairing. Ill bet on their talent over everything else.

 

[jkutswings]

Hmm where have we heard this before? I'll give you a hint, think early to mid 90's. Leon and connor area generational pairing. Ill bet on their talent over everything else.

You can't mean Detroit, since a huge factor in them winning Cups was the entire team buying into a more defensive philosophy, beginning with Bowman overhauling Yzerman's entire style.

Not to mention that Vernon and Osgood were both better goaltenders for their era than anybody Edmonton is trotting out there.

So which franchise in the 90s are you claiming to have won championships with great offense and lousy defense?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Hmm where have we heard this before? I'll give you a hint, think early to mid 90's. Leon and connor area generational pairing. Ill bet on their talent over everything else.

List of Stanley Cup champions - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Eh? I suggest you look at 1995 on.

What team was winning games 6-5? Hell, what team playing for the Cup played that way?

I can't blame you for sticking with a generational pair of talents... but with how it's gonna end up with the cap booming in a couple years, I can't see a way that Edmonton avoids Draisaitl hitting the UFA market. With the influx of crazy money, he could be the premier UFA in the history of UFAs in 24-25. Edmonton has a very short window, I believe. I don't think either team wins in the next five years. Also, I think Holland is out as GM in the next couple years in Edmonton, so you could see a GM pick his ultra-talent to stick with and his one to move for a haul.

 

[Shaman464]

You can't mean Detroit, since a huge factor in them winning Cups was the entire team buying into a more defensive philosophy, beginning with Bowman overhauling Yzerman's entire style.

Not to mention that Vernon and Osgood were both better goaltenders for their era than anybody Edmonton is trotting out there.

So which franchise in the 90s are you claiming to have won championships with great offense and lousy defense?

Bowman lead Detroit during the dead puck years. While you're not going to win without good defense and reliable goaltending, this isn't the era of 2-1 games and you had to play tight as hell to win. The current era looks a lot more like the late 70s/early 80s than it does the mid to late 90s into the early 00s.

 

[norrisnick]

Hmm where have we heard this before? I'll give you a hint, think early to mid 90's. Leon and connor area generational pairing. Ill bet on their talent over everything else.

Difference being Edmonton hasn't had their '89 draft.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Bowman lead Detroit during the dead puck years. While you're not going to win without good defense and reliable goaltending, this isn't the era of 2-1 games and you had to play tight as hell to win. The current era looks a lot more like the late 70s/early 80s than it does the mid to late 90s into the early 00s.

Yeah, and the teams that are reminiscent of the 70s and 80s? They tend to lose early still.

Any teams with really solid playoff success in the last few years had better than reliable goaltending and they won by playing airtight defensive games. You'll say "Oh, Tampa must have been high-flying, they had Stamkos, Kucherov, and Point!" Tampa won back to back Cups and played for a third with a gameplan based around choking the life out of their opponents. Nick Paul, Blake Coleman, and Barclay Goodrow were massive for them and Vasilevskiy was the best goalie in hockey.

The league might be drifting towards more offense, but it hasn't really broken through yet. Some of the Canadian teams playing the other Canadian teams in high scoring affairs because their goalies suck don't invalidate that winning hockey is still tight and low-event in the playoffs.

 

[SirloinUB]

You can't mean Detroit, since a huge factor in them winning Cups was the entire team buying into a more defensive philosophy, beginning with Bowman overhauling Yzerman's entire style.

Not to mention that Vernon and Osgood were both better goaltenders for their era than anybody Edmonton is trotting out there.

So which franchise in the 90s are you claiming to have won championships with great offense and lousy defense?

That’s my entire point. If Yzerman and co. can buy in to a defensive game, why can’t Connor and co.? It is a very similar narrative.

And again let’s not lose context on this. We are comparing the likelihood of Detroit winning vs the oilers. Defence or not, we are miles behind the oilers.

 

[norrisnick]

That’s my entire point. If Yzerman and co. can buy in to a defensive game, why can’t Connor and co.? It is a very similar narrative.

And again let’s not lose context on this. We are comparing the likelihood of Detroit winning vs the oilers. Defence or not, we are miles behind the oilers.

Well... they don't have Lidstrom and Konstantinov as a start. It's easy to shift the focus to defense when you've got the horses to do so.

 

[jkutswings]

That’s my entire point. If Yzerman and co. can buy in to a defensive game, why can’t Connor and co.? It is a very similar narrative.

And again let’s not lose context on this. We are comparing the likelihood of Detroit winning vs the oilers. Defence or not, we are miles behind the oilers.

Then we agree to disagree.

My point is that while I acknowledge Detroit has a long ways to go, they are still closer to a Cup, because I believe Edmonton cannot win at all until they do either a significant retool or a complete rebuild.

Teams like the Oilers and the Leafs will never hoist the chalice during this roster iteration, because it's too imbalanced a cap structure (both in dollars and on one side of the puck). They would need a no-name goalie to get white hot and carry their lousy defense for 16 wins, which is technically possible, but unlikely.

 

[14ari13]

You can't mean Detroit, since a huge factor in them winning Cups was the entire team buying into a more defensive philosophy, beginning with Bowman overhauling Yzerman's entire style.

Not to mention that Vernon and Osgood were both better goaltenders for their era than anybody Edmonton is trotting out there.

So which franchise in the 90s are you claiming to have won championships with great offense and lousy defense?

The pens 92 and 93, I guess.
And after the devils won in 95 the low scoring clutch and grab era started.