Speculation: Who wins the cup first?

[Pizza!Pizza!]

In my time on this board I've seen probably 2/3rds of you denigrate Holland because of how poorly the post cup years went and simultaneously praise Stevie Y for the current tank/rebuild phase.

Now that SY's Wings are starting to look competitive again (on paper at least) and Holland has extinguished the Oilers dumpster fire who do you think will have success first?

Obviously you have two entirely different situations. Holland inherited an Oilers team that was both saddled with boat anchor contracts but also had 2 of the best players in the league. He's moved quick enough to build them into a competitor that is shows he learned from some of his mistakes in Detroit.

SY's draft picks and cap management have been pretty good so far. It has yet to translate to any sort of winning, but the team was more fun to watch last year and there is actual hope going into this season.

Both GMs have track records of building dynasties.

HARD MODE - no vote switching. I also put this here instead of on the Polls board because I just wanted input from Wings fans.

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[Henkka]

I just think Oilers will never win Holland or anyone there, and answered Yzerman.

 

[jkutswings]

I just think Oilers will never win Holland or anyone there, and answered Yzerman.

Yep. It's not a popular opinion, but I've said it before and maintain it now:

Connor McDavid will retire without a Stanley Cup.

Yzerman may or may not win a Cup as GM in Detroit. But I like the track they're on and expect them to seriously contend in a few years, while Edmonton continues to be a paper tiger.

 

[lilidk]

NHL is rigged and will make everything that Canadian team wins. NHL will never give Red Wings top 2 in the draft.

 

[Henkka]

NHL is rigged and will make everything that Canadian team wins. NHL will never give Red Wings top 2 in the draft.

Why would we need a Top2 picks for anything?

And Top picks haven't put Canadian teams to win Cups. It's almost 30 years from Canadiens '93 win and still counting. Flames will be top Canadian contender at next season, maybe they'll repeat the 2004 final appearance.

Just no logic here in either argument. Flames haven't had Top2 picks, just good picks like #6 overall (Tkachuk) as we did with Seider.

Biggest problem in Canada is that you can't get bargain contracts for star players (read: mostly Toronto as an example) because the media is so involved. Star players get what they deserve or more, so the cap will always kill your team depth. Some GM, somewhere else, is getting bargains, having an edge and building a winner. This will maybe never change. American teams will win all the Cups.

 

[SoupNazi]

Yep. It's not a popular opinion, but I've said it before and maintain it now:

Connor McDavid will retire without a Stanley Cup.

Yzerman may or may not win a Cup as GM in Detroit. But I like the track they're on and expect them to seriously contend in a few years, while Edmonton continues to be a paper tiger.

Honestly, this is how I feel. I don't know that Yzerman wins a cup as GM here. But I know Edmonton isn't going to win one with Holland, particularly given how they're constructed right now.

 

[ricky0034]

neither but nothing to do with the league being rigged

the Wings don't have Centers and the Oilers do but don't have anything else

 

[Realgud]

easily wings

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Holland's Oilers are about 2 or 3 years away from an implosion. They were ranked as second worst managed cap in the league by the Athletic.

Huh? Edmonton Oilers are NHL's second worst team at managing player salaries, says analytics writer

Bouchard will need a massive raise in 2023 if he has a season similar to last. Poolparty is gone. Drai will need a HUMANGAS BIG raise by 2025.

They're essentially built like a crappier version of Toronto and will be relying on free agents taking massive discounts to sign and play there. As Ken Holland always does. They aren't winning the cup by 2025 with their current cap structure and Darnell Nurse as their #1D.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

Holland's Oilers are about 2 or 3 years away from an implosion. They were ranked as second worst managed cap in the league by the Athletic.

Huh? Edmonton Oilers are NHL's second worst team at managing player salaries, says analytics writer

Bouchard will need a massive raise in 2023 if he has a season similar to last. Poolparty is gone. Drai will need a HUMANGAS BIG raise by 2025.

They're essentially built like a crappier version of Toronto and will be relying on free agents taking massive discounts to sign and play there. As Ken Holland always does. They aren't winning the cup by 2025 with their current cap structure and Darnell Nurse as their #1D.

yeah I kinda feel the same way. still a decent chance that the Oilers can capture lightning in a bottle and go a fluke run in the next couple seasons. Still, I really like what Holland has been able to do win them. He inherited the worst structured team in the league and had to overpay some meh players in order to get them winning enough that players start taking discounts to stay. but yea, they either need to win now or Holland is going to have to put on his wizard hat and dummy some other GM or else they are going to at least regress to a bubble team if not fully implode.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

yeah I kinda feel the same way. still a decent chance that the Oilers can capture lightning in a bottle and go a fluke run in the next couple seasons. Still, I really like what Holland has been able to do win them. He inherited the worst structured team in the league and had to overpay some meh players in order to get them winning enough that players start taking discounts to stay. but yea, they either need to win now or Holland is going to have to put on his wizard hat and dummy some other GM or else they are going to at least regress to a bubble team if not fully implode.

I think last season WAS the fluke run. That no-defense Calgary series made people believe McDavid was a god. He's still probably the best center in the league but I don't think we'll see that from him again in the postseason.

 

[Shaman464]

Oilers are too top heavy, and Detroit has no top end players. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.

 

[lilidk]

neither but nothing to do with the league being rigged

the Wings don't have Centers and the Oilers do but don't have anything else

Oilers have 2 elite players, we hope we got 2

 

[Ricelund]

Oilers are too top heavy, and Detroit has no top end players. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.

Seider and Raymond will be top end players soon.

 

[Shaman464]

Seider and Raymond will be top end players soon.

Seider probably, Raymond I don't think he'll crack top end. Top be top end I think he'd need to be 1.1 ppg (based on last season's scoring) or better. And I don't see him being that good.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I think last season WAS the fluke run. That no-defense Calgary series made people believe McDavid was a god. He's still probably the best center in the league but I don't think we'll see that from him again in the postseason.

I mean, until there's evidence to the contrary...


I picked Yzerman's Wings because I want to believe. Plus the Oilers window seems pretty short and Holland keeps missing out on Dmen and goalies.

 

[ThankGord]

Going with Detroit until the Oilers can figure out how to build a deeper team around McDavid. Injuries consistently destroy seasons and depth is the only solution. Yzerman is building a deep team with a solid contract structure.

Hard to count McDrai out though...

 

[Bench]

The team with McDavid and Drai is the frontrunner.

But as has been discussed, their best window is the next couple years. So much is riding on Jack Campbell, which I love the guy, but who knows.

I'm going to wait until this current Wings team wins a playoff game, though, before I entertain championships.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I don't want to

The team with McDavid and Drai is the frontrunner.

But as has been discussed, their best window is the next couple years. So much is riding on Jack Campbell, which I love the guy, but who knows.

I'm going to wait until this current Wings team wins a playoff game, though, before I entertain championships.

Forced to pick? The Wings simply because the Oilers are on the clock right now and seem very far away.

McDavid is going to get a raise, either from Edmonton or not. Draisaitl is going to get a gigantic raise, from Edmonton or not.

And I don’t share Bench’s love for Jack Campbell. I prayed the Wings wouldn’t sign him. He looked way too leaky in Toronto to hitch the wagon to him for a Cup.

If Edm don’t win by the end of McDavid’s contract, they’re not going to for a very very long time. Detroit still has their window yet to open.

I don’t buy into the Holland bad narrative as much as the Oilers kind of by necessity have a tricky cap situation under which to add material improvements from external sources and just have to hope young and underutilized guys grow into roles

 

[Bench]

And I don’t share Bench’s love for Jack Campbell. I prayed the Wings wouldn’t sign him. He looked way too leaky in Toronto to hitch the wagon to him for a Cup.

I liked him a lot as a veteran to split starts with Ned to hold down the fort until Cossa is ready.

I like him a lot less as the backbone to help the Oilers overcome their defensive woes. I want him to succeed and pull it off, but his regular season numbers last year were not great upon scrutiny.

Where we both agree wholeheartedly is that Holland, while flawed absolutely, isn't as bad as people meme on him. That's kind of Holland's thing, though. He's rarely a disaster. That's his risk adverse style. It's something he'll need to overcome.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The team with McDavid and Drai is the frontrunner.

But as has been discussed, their best window is the next couple years. So much is riding on Jack Campbell, which I love the guy, but who knows.

I'm going to wait until this current Wings team wins a playoff game, though, before I entertain championships.

I don't think Edmonton is going to be the best, or even third best team in the Western conference over the next three seasons. The Edmonton Oilers are the NHL equivalent of the Steve Nash Phoenix Suns or James Harden Rockets. Lots of offense, little depth, no defense.

Minnesota will still be a great team for at least another season despite the cap crunch.
St. Louis could use a defenseman but I think they're still a better overall squad than Edmonton
Calgary should be approximately where they were last season as a top 8 team in the league.
LA Kings were a 99 point team that just added Kevin Fiala and WITHOUT Doughty pushed Edmonton to 7 games.
Nashville just added McDonagh to give them probably the best top 3 defensemen in the league, or damn near. Plus Saros is an elite goalie.

I have trouble believing Edmonton can be better than these teams. To me they're somewhere in the 4 to 7 range in the western conference right now. One injury to McDavid or Draisaitl could upend their whole year and make them potentially miss the postseason.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I liked him a lot as a veteran to split starts with Ned to hold down the fort until Cossa is ready.

I like him a lot less as the backbone to help the Oilers overcome their defensive woes. I want him to succeed and pull it off, but his regular season numbers last year were not great upon scrutiny.

Where we both agree wholeheartedly is that Holland, while flawed absolutely, isn't as bad as people meme on him. That's kind of Holland's thing, though. He's rarely a disaster. That's his risk adverse style. It's something he'll need to overcome.

Also... I'm (and Yzerman to be completely honest) are closer to Holland's get in and anything can happen. Edmonton absolutely has the talent to win. But everything kinda has to go right. Holland has drifted to where his risk-aversion kills his teams, but the general idea behind it is sound. Edmonton doesn't need a massive overhaul or upheaval. That would be the wrong move. Holland needs to get back to what he did in 2004-2008 (as necessitated by the salary cap) with excising old/overpaid players and finding the island of misfit toys guys like the new-age Cleary who can come in and pop 20g, 40p for a couple million. Signing Kane like he did was actually a stroke of genius.

Same with Toronto to be honest. They've done a great job accumulating talent there and it's actually incomprehensible that Toronto hasn't made it out of the first round with that core. That one I can't call luck because it's approaching ten consecutive times... but there is definitely some luck to it too, like with Corey Perry accidentally knocking Tavares out for the series in the COVID year.

As long as Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, they'll always have a chance.

 

[Bench]

As long as Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, they'll always have a chance.

Basically this. They are the new Crosby/Malkin. They are that good.

I remember people celebrating the Penguins demise before they won again. And then again.

I don't think Nurse is Letang, though. That's a problem.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Basically this. They are the new Crosby/Malkin. They are that good.

I remember people celebrating the Penguins demise before they won again. And then again.

I don't think Nurse is Letang, though. That's a problem.

And that's why I actually chose Detroit over Edmonton. I feel like Edmonton is going to be without one of them in the next few years. I think you get some team after 24-25 that absolutely backs a Brinks truck up to Leon's doorstep. Maybe even Toronto if they decide to move on from Mitch Marner.

 

[SirloinUB]

I voted Yzerman and Detroit because I am a homer.

In actuality Id bet on holland and the oilers. Connor and Leon are nasty. With those two the sky is the limit for the oilers.