Speculation: Who will the Senators protect in the upcoming expansion draft?

[Neiler]

Not Hammond, Andy is our guy for sure. Hammond was given a contract because of that crazy run, and rightfully so. But since then there isn't any reason to put him above anyone else.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Ottawa is an interesting team to watch for the expansion draft. There are, to me, several legitimate options depending on how the season progresses and how other teams protect their players. Keep in mind, Las Vegas isn't selecting the best available player from each team. They are building a team from the available players. Methot might be the best available from Ottawa, but if he duplicates the role of another selected player he might get passed in favour of another. Las Vegas has to select from every team. There is going to be a LOT of #4 defencemen. Far less forwards, and a lot of goaltender scouting.

1. Methot. The obvious choice and, by far, most likely. That said, there are some legitimate reasons Vegas would avoid him. Mainly salary and position. Although his age and contract are reasonable, they are not a bargain either. Also, he plays a position (LHD) where there are many talented players available. You can only have so many top-4, 4+ million, LHD on your team. Further, when you consider how many teams don't have comparable second options, it is conceivable Methot gets passed if they don't consider him better than 2-3 other options combined with Ottawa's other available players.

Methot IMO would be taken if exposed. He could easily be top 4 quality to what is left exposed plus his trade value would be greater than the alternatives like Lazar, Dzingel, Wideman, Hammond ...

 

[SensNation613]

So the data seems quite fair. These are the players Senators fans believe will be protected come the expansion draft

1. Mark Stone (97.37%)
2. Mike Hoffman (97.37%)
3. Kyle Turris (96.05%)
4. Derick Brassard (93.42%)
5. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (89.47%)
6. Bobby Ryan (85.53%)
7. Ryan Dzingel (46.05%)

1. Erik Karlsson (96.05%)
2. Dion Phaneuf (86.84%)
3. Cody Ceci (81.58%)

1. Craig Anderson (88.16%)

This is exactly my personal preference but I wanted to see what everybody else thought. I had difficulty with Lazar/Dzingel but I think Dzin is the real deal yet I wouldn't be shocked to see Lazar protected by the team.

Thanks guys! I will be doing this again throughout the year (1-2 more times) to see if opinions have changed.

 

[Knave]

Only on HF Sens would the 30 goal scorer who has never scored 30 goals in the NHL be leading a 2 time Norris winner who just last season matched an achievement dating back to Orr.

 

[SensNation613]

Only on HF Sens would the 30 goal scorer who has never scored 30 goals in the NHL be leading a 2 time Norris winner who just last season matched an achievement dating back to Orr.

Certain posters didn't take it seriously which they can do so but it's quite obvious that EK is #1 in Ottawa. The same posters didn't protect our best players

 

[saskriders]

Bump:


I am now thinking

Stone
Turris
Hoffman
Brassard
Dzingel
Smith
Pageau

Karlsson
Phaneuf
Methot

Anderson


Try and use Ceci in a trade and go after Stone in the summer.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Do players (that are not automatically exempt) know whether or not they are on the protection list?

 

[OgieO]

Defense is easy. Forwards... I say they leave UFA Smith unprotected with the agreement to sign him after the expansion draft. Ryan also left unprotected (assuming he's able). Then we really risk no key players outside of Methot.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Defense is easy. Forwards... I say they leave UFA Smith unprotected with the agreement to sign him after the expansion draft. Ryan also left unprotected (assuming he's able). Then we really risk no key players outside of Methot.

I wouldn't risk it personally. I want to keep Smith. There is only one way to ensure that.

 

[BigRig4]

Still convinced we plan on going 4-4. I think the team really values Ceci too much to leave him exposed.

I think we protect Turris/Brassard/Hoffman/Stone. No one is touching that MacArthur contract, and we'd be happy to have Bobby taken off our hands. I really don't believe Zinger is eligible to be exposed because rules state first and second year players can't be taken.

Unless I'm overlooking something I think it makes alot of sense.

Edit: what the org would do, not what i would do.

Edit2: Was wrong about Dzingel, he's eligible.

 

[Lehner]

Still convinced we plan on going 4-4. I think the team really values Ceci too much to leave him exposed.

I think we protect Turris/Brassard/Hoffman/Stone. No one is touching that MacArthur contract, and we'd be happy to have Bobby taken off our hands. I really don't believe Zinger is eligible to be exposed because rules state first and second year players can't be taken.

Unless I'm overlooking something I think it makes alot of sense.

Edit: what the org would do, not what i would do.

Dzingle is eligible.

Turris
Stone
Hoffman
Brassard
Pageau
Dzingle
Lazar/Ryan

Ek
Phaneuf
Ceci

Condon

 

[BigRig4]

Dzingle is eligible.

Turris
Stone
Hoffman
Brassard
Pageau
Dzingle
Lazar/Ryan

Ek
Phaneuf
Ceci

Condon

Yeah I just cleared that up, I'll edit my post. Something to do with his age making his ELC automatically start even though he hadn't played NHL time. I wonder if we could politely tell Phaneuf there's no way in hell any one takes his contract and have him waive so we can protect Ceci.

 

[saskriders]

I'd rather go 7-3. At least that way we know which defenceman we would be losing and can trade them for something instead of nothing. 4-4 doesn't allow us tho do that and guarantees we will lose a great player for nothing. 7-3 also allows us to protect Smith, as a handshake deal is too risky in my opinion. What if Smith and the Sens agree to a deal now, but hold off on signing, and Smith gets offered more money. Someone has mentioned that Vegas might try and pick up big contracts to get to the cap, but they could just offer UFAs a lot of money, and Smith could walk for the bigger contract.

Turris
Stone
Hoffman
Dzingel
Brassard
New top 6 forward
Smith

Karlsson
Phaneuf
Ceci/Methot

Anderson

With that we probably lose Pageau. Although if the Ceci/Methot trade got us a centre and Melnyk wanted to save money I suppose we could expose Brassard and protect Pageau.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

I'd rather go 7-3. At least that way we know which defenceman we would be losing and can trade them for something instead of nothing. 4-4 doesn't allow us tho do that and guarantees we will lose a great player for nothing. 7-3 also allows us to protect Smith, as a handshake deal is too risky in my opinion. What if Smith and the Sens agree to a deal now, but hold off on signing, and Smith gets offered more money. Someone has mentioned that Vegas might try and pick up big contracts to get to the cap, but they could just offer UFAs a lot of money, and Smith could walk for the bigger contract.

Turris
Stone
Hoffman
Dzingel
Brassard
New top 6 forward
Smith

Karlsson
Phaneuf
Ceci/Methot

Anderson

With that we probably lose Pageau. Although if the Ceci/Methot trade got us a centre and Melnyk wanted to save money I suppose we could expose Brassard and protect Pageau.

If we lose Pageau that would be great, blessing in disguise.

 

[hooknshoot]

I didn't think Bobby Ryan had to be protected..

 

[aragorn]

I wouldn't risk it personally. I want to keep Smith. There is only one way to ensure that.

Agreed. I just don't get this fan base sometimes, Smith had 25 goals last yr & has 9 more so far this yr & yet he only gets 47% of people voting for him. And yet Pageau gets 89%.

If we lose Pageau that would be great, blessing in disguise.

Geez, what would happen if I said this?

 

[saskriders]

Agreed. I just don't get this fan base sometimes, Smith had 25 goals last yr & has 9 more so far this yr & yet he only gets 47% of people voting for him. And yet Pageau gets 89%.

Keep in mind this poll was from months ago. Pageau was coming off a good season and Smith hadn't proved last season wasn't a fluke.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

If we lose Pageau that would be great, blessing in disguise.

Lmao, what is this nonsense?

 

[Sensinitis]

Do we have to protect Smith?

Can't we leave him unprotected and just sign him since he's UFA?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Do we have to protect Smith?

Can't we leave him unprotected and just sign him since he's UFA?

Not really. We can leave him unprotected and Vegas can select him and sign him.

http://sinbin.vegas/curious-role-ufas-expansion-draft/

 

[Sensinitis]

Not really. We can leave him unprotected and Vegas can select him and sign him.

http://sinbin.vegas/curious-role-ufas-expansion-draft/

They only have negotiation rights for 3 days.

If the team has an extension already set for Smitty or is sure of his intention to re-sign, it seems like a good move to leave him unprotected.

But the 7th F to protect doesn't seem very obvious.

Turris, Brassard, Smith, Stone, Dzingel, Smith, Pageau?

Lazar unprotected. Or leave Smith unprotected and protect Lazar? Idk.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

They only have negotiation rights for 3 days.

If the team has an extension already set for Smitty or is sure of his intention to re-sign, it seems like a good move to leave him unprotected.

But the 7th F to protect doesn't seem very obvious.

Turris, Brassard, Smith, Stone, Dzingel, Smith, Pageau?

Lazar unprotected. Or leave Smith unprotected and protect Lazar? Idk.

Vegas could offer him a better deal. It's a risk to leave him exposed obviously.
As you say if there is an under the table deal worked out they could do it that way.
They would lose someone else.

IMO sign Smith and protect him. Expose Lazar

 

[BigRig4]

Vegas could offer him a better deal. It's a risk to leave him exposed obviously.
As you say if there is an under the table deal worked out they could do it that way.
They would lose someone else.

IMO sign Smith and protect him. Expose Lazar

I agree, I think the best case scenario for Lazar at this point is that he's eventually equal to Smith anyway, so why not protect the guy who's already proven. I doubt Lazar would even be taken anyway.

 

[Sensinitis]

Vegas could offer him a better deal. It's a risk to leave him exposed obviously.
As you say if there is an under the table deal worked out they could do it that way.
They would lose someone else.

IMO sign Smith and protect him. Expose Lazar

Fair enough. It's more "safe" I suppose.

Vegas would still be able to sign Smitty if we haven't signed him by July 1st, but I guess that's a different story.

 

[aragorn]

1. Stone
2. Turris
3. Smith
4. Brassard
5. Hoffman
6. Dzingel
7. Lazar
- exposes Pageau, Pyatt, Kelly, Neil, MacArthur & Ryan

1. Karlsson
2. Ceci
3. Phaneuf
- exposes Methot, Boroweicki, Wideman & Claesson