Who will score 525 goals in their careers

[slapKing]

I was debating whether if I go 500 goals or 600 goals. so I settled in the middle with 550. but then I thought that too was a bit high for these guys, so I then settled again in the middle with 525 goals. I thinks that's good enough.

anyway, which players do you see hitting that total in your opinion.

Click to read more...

 

[Makaveli]

Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Kane, JT and maybe Seguin

 

[bobholly39]

To me Crosby is 100%. I think it's more likely he hits it next season (63 goals) than it is that he doesn't hit it at all.

I'd put Stamkos at 99.9%. Reason I don't say 100% is because long injuries he's had so you never know, but if he plays till barely 35 he 100% hits it. He may score as much as 600.

Kane is extremely likely too. I'd say 90% likely.
I'd actually have Tavares as quite likely too. Always been a consistent goal-scorer, and playing on Toronto he has the opportunity to remain potent offensively for many years. I'd say 60% chance for him.

That's the only 4. Malkin is possible - he just hit 42 goals 2 years ago, you know his talent is there even at 34. But he always misses so many games, and is already 34, so I say he falls just shy.

 

[bobholly39]

Another name I forgot to mention - in my opinion Auston Matthews will 100% (minus career ending injuries of course) surpass 525 goals. I think anything short of 600 career goals would be a major disappointment for him.

Guys like Drai and McDavid and a few others probably hit it too - but among the younger generation Matthews is the only guy i'm willing to say 100% does it. His consistency so far at scoring goals is pretty great, bodes well for future.

 

[filinski77]

Crosby: Yeah

Malkin: Might, but he'd have to play till like 38, and that's before even considering any decline in his current ability, or injuries (which are almost guaranteed with him)

Stamkos: Should, barring any major injuries

Kane: Might, would have to play till like 37 probably, which should be fine for him

Kessel/Bergeron/Toews/Kopitar/Staal: no chance

Tavares: Smaller chance, already 30 and his best goalscoring years are likely behind him, but could if he plays till 36-38 and doesn't fall off more than expected

Seguin: Most likely not, he's about half way there, with the first half (and more productive half) of his career over with, so I doubt he's as productive from 29-37 as he was from 18-28

 

[Krewe]

Stamkos and Crosby are the only guys you could call effective locks

 

[Star Ocean]

Stamkos is too injury prone

 

[Steven Toast]

Crosby and Stamkos.

 

[kilowatt]

There's no way Kopitar accomplishes this unless he can play until he's 40. Even then, it's a long shot. At 333 goals, he would need another 192 to hit 525. That means he would need 6 consecutive 32-goal seasons, at which point he would be 39. Barring injury, I certainly think Kopitar could continue playing until he's 40, but as his career starts winding down, I think he'll continue his elite defensive play and score much less than he used to.

Then again, as the Kings transition to a much more offensive playbook, maybe he can shoot more, defend less, and rack up a couple 40-goal seasons. I doubt it though. I'm guessing he ends up somewhere around 450 goals and 1200 points in his career.

 

[kilowatt]

Stamkos and Crosby are the only guys you could call effective locks

Given their injury history, I don't think you can call them locks.

 

[M2Beezy]

I voted Crosby Malkin and Kaner

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Another name I forgot to mention - in my opinion Auston Matthews will 100% (minus career ending injuries of course) surpass 525 goals. I think anything short of 600 career goals would be a major disappointment for him.

Guys like Drai and McDavid and a few others probably hit it too - but among the younger generation Matthews is the only guy i'm willing to say 100% does it. His consistency so far at scoring goals is pretty great, bodes well for future.

I did some career forecasts this February (about six weeks before the season was suspended). I forecasted Matthews to score 670 goals (and 1,240 points), modelling his career based on how other players with similar starts to their career progressed. I realize forecasting any young player to hit 600 goals (or even 500) can be seen as ambitious, but he's had an excellent start and has been relatively consistent. So I agree - barring a catastrophic injury (or numerous COVID-related disruptions), it would be a disappointment if Matthews fails to reach 600.

For what it's worth, I forecasted McDavid to reach 550 goals (and more than 1,650 points), Stamkos to reach approximately 570 goals and 1,150 points, and MacKinnon to reach approximately 475 goals and 1,275 points.

 

[Suntouchable13]

John Tavares can easily do it. He is only 30 and he needs to average 36 goals a season for the next 5 seasons. Very doable.

 

[Fataldogg]

Crosby, Stamkos and Kane are probably the only ones on that list that are going to do it. Malkin can if he can manage to stay healthy.

 

[Fataldogg]

John Tavares can easily do it. He is only 30 and he needs to average 36 goals a season for the next 5 seasons. Very doable.

I think you are underestimating how hard that is to do. 36 goals a season for 5 years implies he has no injuries, no off seasons, no declining play from aging, no shortened seasons, cancelations, etc.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think you are underestimating how hard that is to do. 36 goals a season for 5 years implies he has no injuries, no off seasons, no declining play from aging, no shortened seasons, cancelations, etc.

Well, sure, you’re right. But, I am thinking he can still hit 40+ a couple of times before his contract ends. Also, I don’t think he will be done at 35 either.

 

[Gurglesons]

I went with none of them.

Maybe Stamkos, but given his injury history I think he's probably the most guaranteed here besides Malkin to miss time.

 

[filinski77]

I went with none of them.

Maybe Stamkos, but given his injury history I think he's probably the most guaranteed here besides Malkin to miss time.

Crosby would have to have a career ending injury to NOT score another 63 goals in his career.

 

[filinski77]

John Tavares can easily do it. He is only 30 and he needs to average 36 goals a season for the next 5 seasons. Very doable.

I said he could, but he'd need to play late into his 30's to try and accomplish it. He's "only" 30, which is well into the time frame of expected goalscoring drop-offs at any time. He's only scored 36 goals or more 3 times in his whole career. Given his age, and history, it's more than likely that we've seen the best days of Tavares as a goalscorer, and that he may never score 40 again, or 36 ever again to be fair.

 

[bobholly39]

I did some career forecasts this February (about six weeks before the season was suspended). I forecasted Matthews to score 670 goals (and 1,240 points), modelling his career based on how other players with similar starts to their career progressed. I realize forecasting any young player to hit 600 goals (or even 500) can be seen as ambitious, but he's had an excellent start and has been relatively consistent. So I agree - barring a catastrophic injury (or numerous COVID-related disruptions), it would be a disappointment if Matthews fails to reach 600.

For what it's worth, I forecasted McDavid to reach 550 goals (and more than 1,650 points), Stamkos to reach approximately 570 goals and 1,150 points, and MacKinnon to reach approximately 475 goals and 1,275 points.

Yup I remember that and I thought those predictions were pretty spot-on to be honest.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Wow, the poll results are unbelievably clear-cut.

 

[Gurglesons]

Crosby would have to have a career ending injury to NOT score another 63 goals in his career.

Yeah, didn't notice that.

 

[Video Nasty]

Stamkos is too injury prone

For another 103 goals going into his age 30 season? He's scored more than that (110 goals) over his last 4 seasons where he played 234 games.

Unless he's out of the league, he's sailing past 525 goals before he even turns 34 (4 more seasons).

When he misses time, he misses time. When plays, he plays. 12 seasons and he's played all the games in a season 6 times. He's played 77-79 games in 3 other seasons.

I'm hesitant to label a player who missed 0-5 games in 9 out of 12 seasons as the level of injury prone where he's too much of a lost cause to score another 103 goals where he won't turn 31 for another 3 months.

 

[Krewe]

For another 103 goals going into his age 30 season? He's scored more than that (110 goals) over his last 4 seasons where he played 234 games.

Unless he's out of the league, he's sailing past 525 goals before he even turns 34 (4 more seasons).

When he misses time, he misses time. When plays, he plays. 12 seasons and he's played all the games in a season 6 times. He's played 77-79 games in 3 other seasons.

I'm hesitant to label a player who missed 0-5 games in 9 out of 12 seasons as the level of injury prone where he's too much of a lost cause to score another 103 goals where he won't turn 31 for another 3 months.

Don't bring facts into this argument.

You're right though. Stamkos is not injury prone in the way that malkin or crosby are. His injuries have largely been freak things rather than recurring injuries or overuse injuries. Dude is just unlucky as can be IMO. In a league with so many players, some people are gonna just be unlucky rather than injury prone

 

[Mickey Marner]

The first four and Tavares are all pacing towards 525. The rest would have to either play a long, long time or increase their yearly output in their 30's.