Who will score 525 goals in their careers

[Video Nasty]

Don't bring facts into this argument.

You're right though. Stamkos is not injury prone in the way that malkin or crosby are. His injuries have largely been freak things rather than recurring injuries or overuse injuries. Dude is just unlucky as can be IMO. In a league with so many players, some people are gonna just be unlucky rather than injury prone

Very unlucky. With a little more of it and the different path his career could have taken, minus the freak injuries, he could very well be knocking on the door of 500 goals right now after just 12 seasons.

I also find it remarkable that Crosby and Malkin are where they are considering the time they've missed as well.

If Crosby played even just half of the 199 games he missed, with conservative estimates, he could be flirting with 550 right now.
If Malkin played half of his 194 games missed, he could be at about 460.

Really puts into context how impressive it is for Ovechkin to miss just 31 games, probably half of them due to suspension and skipping All-Star games.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Crosby, Malkin, and Kane.

Stamkos could, but I think injuries will stop it. Seguin also could, but I think he’ll drop off at some point in the next few years.

 

[Gains]

All the 1st overalls listed

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Crosby (for sure), Stamkos (if healthy) and Kane (if he scores 40 goals once or twice in the upcoming seasons).

The rest won’t make it.

 

[wetcoast]

Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Kane, JT and maybe Seguin

Took Crosby, Stamkos (assuming at least some health) and Kane.

I think the 20-21 season will end up being too short and Malkin and the others will be hurt by it.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

The first 4 will get there

 

[Midnight Judges]

Really puts into context how impressive it is for Ovechkin to miss just 31 games, probably half of them due to suspension and skipping All-Star games.

Most of the guys on HFboards believe durability is worth precisely nothing.

 

[Midnight Judges]

As for the poll, IMO Crosby has aout a 60% chance at this. So does Stamkos. Everyone else is under 50% (maybe).

Goal scoring can dry up fast for players in their mid 30s.

 

[hamzarocks]

As for the poll, IMO Crosby has aout a 60% chance at this. So does Stamkos. Everyone else is under 50% (maybe).

Goal scoring can dry up fast for players in their mid 30s.

You think crosby who needs 63 goals to get to 525 has only a 60% chance?

Crosby is signed for 5 more years. He needs 12.6 goals per year to get there. Crosby has never scored so little goals and should be good for 25 to 35 goals each of those seasons. Crosby should end his career with ~600 goals. He is guaranteed to get 525 unless he misses 3 seasons worth of games

 

[Midnight Judges]

You think crosby who needs 63 goals to get to 525 has only a 60% chance?

Crosby is signed for 5 more years. He needs 12.6 goals per year to get there. Crosby has never scored so little goals and should be good for 25 to 35 goals each of those seasons. Crosby should end his career with ~600 goals. He is guaranteed to get 525 unless he misses 3 seasons worth of games

Your facts are wrong. In 2012 Crosby scored 8 goals. This past season he scored 16 goals.

Next season is very likely to be shortened due to COVID-19, so his best chance to have another productive season is hampered.

Crosby's career average is 30.8 goals per season but that accounts for 15 prime years. You can't assume a player's prime pace will be sustained well into their 30s. For most players it declines significantly in the mid 30s.

That said, yeah I think you're probably right his chances are better than 60%.

 

[hamzarocks]

Your facts are wrong. In 2012 Crosby scored 8 goals. This past season he scored 16 goals.

Next season is very likely to be shortened due to COVID-19, so his best chance to have another productive season is hampered.

Crosby's career average is 30.8 goals per season but that accounts for 15 prime years. You can't assume a player's prime pace will be sustained well into their 30s. For most players it declines significantly in the mid 30s.

That said, yeah I think you're probably right his chances are better than 60%.

He scored 8 goals in 22 games and 16 goals in 41 games.

If he stays getting injured and misses 3ish seasons like I said that ya he probably doesnt hit it if he plays 2 years with 1 being shortened due to Covid. If he plays even 75% of the games over the next 5 years he gets 63 goals imo

However crosby is among the top 10 greatest players ever. His talent and drive should make his decline less noticable.

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

Crosby and maybe Stamkos and Kane.

 

[hockeeyyy]

This was a pretty good poll. I picked Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos.

I didn't realize how productive Kane's goal scoring numbers were, so I picked him as well. These four are the most likely, and I don't think any of them will miss the mark.

But I do have questions about the others. Even if Seguins dings 30 a year for the next five years, and then 20, 19, 18, 17, 16 in the years after those five, he'll just barely clip 525, and he'd already be 38. I'm not convinced he has five 30 goal seasons left in him, but he might do 20+ per season for the next decade -- problem is, he'll be around 500, but not quite 525. It's a tall order for a player whose right in the prime years, but his goal scoring has kind of been very intermittent.

 

[ESH]

I think the only sure bets are Crosby and Stamkos. I think it’s very likely Malkin and Kane do too. Tavares is the only other guy I see reaching 525, but I’d say it’s 50/50 for him.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Most of the guys on HFboards believe durability is worth precisely nothing.

Since I know where this is going.... durability matters, but the Crosby/Ovi debate has been settled for ages please stop trying.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

Voted Crosby and Stamkos. Most of the others likely won't.

 

[Hockeyholic]

If Malkin doesn't reach 500 goals, will that affect his chances of being inducted into the Hall?

 

[ESH]

If Malkin doesn't reach 500 goals, will that affect his chances of being inducted into the Hall?

Malkin is a 100% lock for the Hall if he retired today

 

[CanadienShark]

Crosby
Malkin
Stamkos
Kane
Tavares

 

[Varan]

Crosby just needs 2 seasons of ~70 games, and he’s 100% a lock. He could get it in 2 seasons if he plays 82 games and has 30+ goal seasons

 

[psycat]

Since I know where this is going.... durability matters, but the Crosby/Ovi debate has been settled for ages please stop trying.

Settles in what sense? Crosby might be a mariginally better player at their best but Ovechkin is by far a more important player historically speaking. That said the "debate" has gone circles for years.