Who scores the most goals total in the next 4 seasons?

[Pavel Buchnevich]

nope, Pastrnak and Draisaitl are pretty reasonable as well. But I guess it's easier to say that than defend your claim

I actually explained why they aren't great choices.

And I explained why Ovechkin is clearly the best choice. It's not a hard argument.

 

[Crabapple]

Draisaitl/Matthews (voted Drai cuz I'm a filthy homer)
Pasta
OV
McDavid

 

[stevo61]

I learned a long time not to count Ovechkin out. Its not like he relies on McDavid level speed and dances around the other team shift after shift, he literally has his spot he stands and hammers bombs. Sounds simple, sounds like something easy to defend but year after year he just keeps scoring.

 

[bobholly39]

I'd go with Matthews out of those, but am a little salty you would not include Laine.

I listed "other".

Im actually very high on Laine - and if you asked who will have the best single goal scoring season in next 4 years i might be tempted to pick him first. But consistency does not seem to be a strength for him - and for a 4 year stretch i think thats the most important aspect

 

[Midnight Judges]

Young goal scorers come and go. If you look at the careers of a large sample size of players, it's hard to sustain. Ovechkin is almost always at or near the top for 15 years, and that's what makes it crazy.

Ovechkin can be questioned because of age, but these other players can be questioned simply because many (but not all) young elite players flame out on goal scoring in a relatively short period of time. They're all likely in their peaks right now, and losing to 34 year-old Ovechkin. So which decline is more steep - Ovie's from 34-38 or these other guys from peak to prime? I don't think it's a no-brainer. And the longer time frame of this poll might gear more towards Ovie's goal scoring consistency - which has no equal in the history of the sport.

 

[Regal]

It doesn't seem to make much sense to talk about historical precedent for a player that is re-writing goal scoring history books.

It makes it difficult to put him in the same box as others, but the fact that father time is undeated makes the odds still slim.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Anyway, I went with Matthews. I think his staying power might be greater than the other players on the list because he does it primarily with his shot/release. Not that the other guys don't also have great shots, because they do. But I think McDavid and Draisaitl are a little more dependent on speed, and that aspect of their game is more likely degrade than Matthews's shot quality IMO. Pastrnak is helped by old players on his line, and they will degrade as well.

 

[ToDavid]

I’m surprised Ovechkin isn’t winning this. How can you say someone else until he’s dethroned? He’s still the best goal scorer in the league.

If it was one year I think he would be but over four years there's a greater chance of age catching up with him. Obviously he's bucked the aging trend so far, so who knows, but father time comes for everyone eventually.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Strange not to include Laine as imo he’s a top goal scorer.
Of the choices I’d go
1. Drai
2. Matthews
3. Pasta
I think those three are all really close if we are just looking at goals.
I actually think McDavid could win this if he wanted to be primarily a goal scorer but he’s much more valuable as an all round player like Crosby.
I hesitated about Ovechkin as it seems people have been writing him off as the top goal scorer for at least 5 years now but at some point time has to catch up to him. Next two years I’d take Ovechkin.

 

[Gavy]

No, you're right. Matthews is the only acceptable answer.

Guy didnt even mention Matthew's. Might want to calm down

 

[MLSE]

Guy didnt even mention Matthew's. Might want to calm down

You're right, we should all calm down and choose Matthews.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Strange not to include Laine as imo he’s a top goal scorer.
Of the choices I’d go
1. Drai
2. Matthews
3. Pasta
I think those three are all really close if we are just looking at goals.
I actually think McDavid could win this if he wanted to be primarily a goal scorer but he’s much more valuable as an all round player like Crosby.
I hesitated about Ovechkin as it seems people have been writing him off as the top goal scorer for at least 5 years now but at some point time has to catch up to him. Next two years I’d take Ovechkin.

After Laine's 44 goals during the 2017-18 season, the last two years he dropped to 30 goals in the 2018-19 season and 28 goals in the 2019-20 season.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

After Laine's 44 goals during the 2017-18 season, the last two years he dropped to 30 goals in the 2018-19 season and 28 goals in the 2019-20 season.

Yes. I know.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yes. I know.

Maybe that's why he wasn't listed as one of the players to select.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Maybe that's why he wasn't listed as one of the players to select.

He should have been.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

A 34-year old Alex Ovechkin is beating 24-year old David Pastrnak in this poll.

He’s also not far behind the soon to be Hart winner who is also 24-years old.

 

[danpantz]

A 34-year old Alex Ovechkin is beating 24-year old David Pastrnak in this poll.

He’s also not far behind the soon to be Hart winner who is also 24-years old.

View attachment 351179

Not surprising. People still don't believe Pasta is as good as he is. They attribute his success to Bergeron and Marchand but completely ignore that Marchand's career high was 61 points before Pasta joined his line and Bergeron has had career highs ever since he joined it as well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

After Laine's 44 goals during the 2017-18 season, the last two years he dropped to 30 goals in the 2018-19 season and 28 goals in the 2019-20 season.

What are your thoughts on the effect of SH% for the players on this list?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not surprising. People still don't believe Pasta is as good as he is. They attribute his success to Bergeron and Marchand but completely ignore that Marchand's career high was 61 points before Pasta joined his line and Bergeron has had career highs ever since he joined it as well.

I don't think anyone attributes his success to leaching off those players, but I think you'd be kidding yourself if you don't think he benefits from playing on the best line in hockey.

 

[danpantz]

I don't think anyone attributes his success to leaching off those players, but I think you'd be kidding yourself if you don't think he benefits from playing on the best line in hockey.

It's always the line used to bring him down. I think Marchand and Bergeron benefit offensively by playing with him more than the other way around.

 

[CatchyTune]

Matthews, but Pastrnak will be right there but his linemates are aging. Will be close if Marchand/Bergeron keep it up.

 

[Video Nasty]

I don't understand it either. Laine has become so underrated. He obviously has one fanbase that rails against him at every chance, but even the rest of fanbases underrate him.

Not hard to figure out really. He's been underwhelming overall for over two seasons now. He had 36 in 73 games as a rookie and then had 41 goals in the first 69 games of his sophomore season.

Then he was held off the goal sheet 11 times in the remaining 13 games of the 2017-2018 season (he had 3 goals in his final 13 games).

30 goals in 82 games in 2018-2019 (scored 7 goals in the final 50 games, 9 in the final 58 games, 11 in the final 60 games following a 5 goal game).

After 3 Hat Tricks in a 3 week span of November 2018, capped off by the 5 goal game, he has had 1 in the past 18 months.

28 goals in 68 games in 2019-2020 (he's been better after starting with 3 goals in the first 15 games).

After four seasons, he has 1 40 goal season to his name. He has 61 goals in his last 163 games. That's a 30 goal season pace with over 2 season sample size worth of games. It's not surprising or wrong that people have little faith in him leading the NHL in goals over the next 4 seasons.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not hard to figure out really. He's been underwhelming overall for over two seasons now. He had 36 in 73 games as a rookie and then had 41 goals in the first 69 games of his sophomore season.

Then he was held off the goal sheet 11 times in the remaining 13 games of the 2017-2018 season (he had 3 goals in his final 13 games).

30 goals in 82 games in 2018-2019 (scored 7 goals in the final 50 games, 9 in the final 58 games, 11 in the final 60 games following a 5 goal game).

After 3 Hat Tricks in a 3 week span of November 2018, capped off by a 5 goal game, he has had 1 in the past 18 months.

28 goals in 68 games in 2019-2020 (he's been better after starting with 3 goals in the first 15 games).

After four seasons, he has 1 40 goal season to his name. He has 61 goals in his last 163 games. That's a 30 goal season pace with over a 2 season sample size. It's not surprising or wrong that people have little faith in him leading the NHL in goals over the next 4 seasons.

Look at his SH% the last two years. I think its unsustainably low for a player with his shot.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Look at his SH% the last two years. I think its unsustainably low for a player with his shot.

It's more likely his initial years were inflated. He had an unsustainably high ES OISH% in his rookie year (the highest in the league), and he had quite the outlier PP SH% in his 2nd year.

 

[Video Nasty]

Look at his SH% the last two years. I think its unsustainably low for a player with his shot.

Is it just a fluke that for more than half of his career now (the most recent half mind you), he has a shooting percentage under 12?

He started his career with 77 goals on 404 shots in 142 games = 19.1 S%

Then 3/13/2018- Present Day

Final 13 games of 2017-2018 season. 3 goals on 41 shots.
2018-2019. 30 goals on 245 shots.
2019-2020. 28 goals on 226 shots.

61 goals on 512 shots in 163 games = 11.9 S%

That's a very large, very recent sample. It's hard for me to do more than meet you almost halfway and attribute it to merely bad luck. Maybe this is just who he is now.