Who scores the most goals total in the next 4 seasons?

[bobholly39]

Simple question. Who in the league will score the most goals in the next 4 seasons combined? Regular season only, not playoffs.

Consider every aspect - all I care about here is raw goals. Powerplay vs EV, ice time, teammates + linemates, team situations, health, age....whatever other factor you can think of. We're simply trying to predict who will have the most total goals over the next 4 seasons.

Options are:

Ovechkin
Matthews
Pastrnak
Draisaitl
McDavid
Other

Explain why and feel free to rank them too.

Click to read more...

 

[Canovin]

Went with Drai

RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto is going to be nasty for years

 

[Kamiccolo]

I mean you gotta go with one of McDavid or Drai if raw totals is the only consideration. They get to play together a ton on the PP and have strong 5v5 lines and have scored a lot in the past few seasons. I don't think there are many teams with two goal scorers like that. It makes a difference because either can pass or shoot and it creates a lot of space on the ice and especially the PP.

 

[filinski77]

If all are healthy I'd probably go:

Pastrnak/Matthews
Draisaitl
McDavid
Ovechkin (dude's gonna be old as hell in year 3/4 of this)

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I’m surprised Ovechkin isn’t winning this. How can you say someone else until he’s dethroned? He’s still the best goal scorer in the league.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Matchews

 

[Thenameless]

I’m surprised Ovechkin isn’t winning this. How can you say someone else until he’s dethroned? He’s still the best goal scorer in the league.

Because of his age. Isn't that obvious? I mean no one is going to bet against a prime Ovechkin.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Because of his age. Isn't that obvious? I mean no one is going to bet against a prime Ovechkin.

What age do you think he’ll drop off at because he’s still the best right now.

 

[Thenameless]

What age do you think he’ll drop off at because he’s still the best right now.

I think he'll drop off next season. Still top 5 though.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I’m surprised Ovechkin isn’t winning this. How can you say someone else until he’s dethroned? He’s still the best goal scorer in the league.

It’s over the next four years, not next year.

Ovechkin is 34-years old. Father-time is undefeated.

Honestly if OV leads the league in goals the next four seasons we might have to start talking about him being the second best player of all-time behind Gretzky.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I think it'll definitely be one of Draisaitl, McDavid, or Matthews.

Draisaitl has the 2nd most goals over the past 2 years behind Ovi. Take Ovi's
decline into consideration and I went with Drai here.

 

[jetsforever]

Probably Matthews

 

[Regal]

What age do you think he’ll drop off at because he’s still the best right now.

Ovechkin will be 35 in September. There's been only 9 seasons ever of a player age 35 or older scoring 40 goals, and Bucyk is the only one to hit 50 and the only one to hit 40 more than once after turning 35. Ovechkin is defying the odds when it comes to goalscoring but it's doubtful he can continue to lead the league. Pastrnak and Matthews were right there with him this year and should take over going forward.

 

[MLSE]

I'll go with Matthews.

I think he has another level still.

Draisaitl is a good pick too IMO. He has more goals the last couple years and is less prone to injury.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Ovechkin
And why does Matthews always obliterate Pastrnak in these polls?

 

[bobholly39]

Ovechkin
And why does Matthews always obliterate Pastrnak in these polls?

Matthews has been the much more consistent goal-scorer since start of his career. I think that bodes better for future expectations, especially in regards to consistency. I also think Pastrnak's successes are more closely tied to his linemates than Matthews, and both Marchand and Bergeron are getting older

 

[bobholly39]

What age do you think he’ll drop off at because he’s still the best right now.

I think if this poll was asking for 2 years, i'd still give him the edge despite age. 4 years is really pushing it too much. He'll probably still do great next year, maybe even 1 more year - but by year 3 i'd be shocked if he's till contending for the Rocket.

It doesn't help how consistent Matthews has been as a goal-scorer either, and Drai too. To me - there's no reason to believe both players won't score 40+ each of the next 4 seasons, and probably closer to 45+. If the top competition was instead McDavid? Well I can see McDavid in a peak year doing 50+ and maybe even close to 60, but other years he'd do closer to ~30 and average is lower. Think both Matthews and Drai will be hard to keep up with over 4 years for an ageing Ovechkin

 

[ijuka]

I'd go with Matthews out of those, but am a little salty you would not include Laine.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Went with other on my conviction that Val "Nuke" Nischushkin is about to go nuclear.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews. Best goal scorer right through his prime, with good opportunity potential.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Ovechkin will be 35 in September. There's been only 9 seasons ever of a player age 35 or older scoring 40 goals, and Bucyk is the only one to hit 50 and the only one to hit 40 more than once after turning 35. Ovechkin is defying the odds when it comes to goalscoring but it's doubtful he can continue to lead the league. Pastrnak and Matthews were right there with him this year and should take over going forward.

It doesn't seem to make much sense to talk about historical precedent for a player that is re-writing goal scoring history books.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I’m surprised Ovechkin isn’t winning this. How can you say someone else until he’s dethroned? He’s still the best goal scorer in the league.

I'm surprised Ovechkin isn't winning too, as he's generally very overrated. But him leading the league in goals from age 35-39 just isn't something that's going to happen

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm surprised Ovechkin isn't winning too, as he's generally very overrated. But him leading the league in goals from age 35-39 just isn't something that's going to happen

No, you're right. Matthews is the only acceptable answer.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

No, you're right. Matthews is the only acceptable answer.

nope, Pastrnak and Draisaitl are pretty reasonable as well. But I guess it's easier to say that than defend your claim

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

but am a little salty you would not include Laine.

I don't understand it either. Laine has become so underrated. He obviously has one fanbase that rails against him at every chance, but even the rest of fanbases underrate him.

Pastrnak for his career averages 37.8 goals per 82 games, and Laine is 37.1, so we aren't even talking about 1 full goal difference per season. Pastrnak also plays on the absolute best line in the league. People want to claim that Ovechkin will slow down in the next four years. What about the Bruins top line with Bergeron and Marchand? Will they not slow down and will that not effect Pastrnak's totals? Meanwhile, Laine has bounced around different spots in the Jets lineup.

He's also two years younger than Pastrnak, and a lot of the Jets best offensive players like Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers are in their prime. I don't understand the instant reflex to place Pastrnak ahead of Laine. Both guys also have had the same number of 40 goal seasons. Laine's gotten pretty unlucky with SH%'s in recent seasons, while Pastrnak has gotten pretty lucky with SH%'s. This stuff has historically evened out over the course of careers.

And if we want to go further into the SH% topic, is Draisaitl going to shoot about 20% for the next four seasons? He's never even hit 30 goals with a normal SH%.