Who scores 100 points first?

[BAM]

Could see Matthews hitting 50-50 this year

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think 45 goals and 40 assists would be a good expectation for this year. 85 points would put him above a PPG.

 

[authentic]

I think 45 goals and 40 assists would be a good expectation for this year. 85 points would put him above a PPG.

He was on pace for that this season. Not all progression is linear, but I would bet he improves on his pace from this season rather than not, especially if we are assuming he won't get injured again.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He was on pace for that this season. Not all progression is linear, but I would be he improves on his pace from this season rather than not, especially if we are assuming he won't get injured again.

Yeah he was on pace in 62 games. I’d like to see him keep the PPG for a full season first. 85 points would be a nice progression if he can do that for 82 games imo.

 

[Hunter368]

It’s going to be hard for AM to score a 100+ points until he gets better on the PP.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Mack.

He will be the bigger scorer.

 

[ottawa]

Question should have been "will MacKinnon hit 100 points before Matthews hits 70 points"

Jk...but yah, neither are 100 point players.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I’m going to go with neither

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It’s going to be hard for AM to score a 100+ points until he gets better on the PP.

huh? he's like 200th in PP time per game. that's the problem. not that he magically starts to suck when the opponent is down a player

 

[BorntoLose]

dont see it happening for Matthews with his current deployment 18 min a night with limited pp time. Could see Mackinnon hitting 100 however even if he slows down slightly with his torrent pace from the 2nd half of last season.

 

[Peggy]

Thats because Babcock is an absolute moron and gives lesser players more TOI

i'll trade you pomo for bab lol

 

[Regal]

I'd like to see a link to this supposed study, because all one has to do is look on hockey-reference to see what age the majority of the elite players were when they had their career high in points.

Even guys I didn't list who scored at a bit higher age, weren't far off. Tavares' career high is at 24. Thornton *just* turned 26 at season's end the year he set his career high. Jagr's career high was at age 23. Sakic was 26. Yzerman was 23. Etc.

The only players I can think of lately that had their career years later on were the Sedins. Pretty much every elite or star player I can think of had their best seasons (statistically) at or before age 26.

I believe studies on average point totals point to it being between 24 and 27, but that's for all players, and I don't think it's surprising that elite talents would peak earlier. That said, Kane's Art Ross was at 27, Datsyuk's two best years were at 29 and 30, Iginla's Art Ross was at 24, but his highest total was at 30. Likewise St. Louis's Art Ross was at 28 and his highest total at 31. Marchand has hit his highest total the last two years at 28 and 29. Wheeler just had a career year at 31. Ditto Giroux, Kessel and Kopitar, all at 30. Other ones since the lockout were Marc Savard at 29, Alfredsson at 33, Hossa at 28, and Briere at 29. Going back, Gilmour was at 29, Oates at 30, Messier was 29, and LaFontaine was 27. It certainly happens.

One thing to keep in mind too is that for most players since the early 80s, scoring has generally gone down as their careers have played out, which makes it harder to top their previous totals even if they become a better player. There's a number of players who I would argue had better offensive years later in their career, but had lower totals due to league scoring (Sakic in '01, Jagr in '98, Forsberg in '03, Malkin in '12). The only real exceptions are the guys whose primes spanned the full season lockout where scoring went up after, like the aforementioned Iginla. Last year scoring went up again for the first time since then. It could be a one-off, which ends up making it tougher for MacKinnon to best his numbers, but if it's a trend, it might end up being easier.

 

[HyPnOtiK]

Mackinnon scores 97

'neither will ever hit 100'

Some of you are incredible

He hit 97 when everything went amazingly perfect for him. Chances aren't good he ever hits 100

 

[Mrb1p]

Matthews doesnt have the playmaking for it.

 

[Mrb1p]

He hit 97 when everything went amazingly perfect for him. Chances aren't good he ever hits 100

He missed 8 games

 

[mazmin]

I think both are capable of doing it under the right circumstances... but if Mack plays all 82 this coming season then I don't see why not. He was on pace for 107 points last year so a regression to exactly 100 isn't a wild idea at all.

 

[KingTux]

None Lul

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The objective answer has to be Mack. He was on pace for over 100 last year. Matthews was on pace for 85 points.

 

[Volica]

It’s going to be hard for AM to score a 100+ points until he gets better on the PP.

And maintains his insane 5v5 on ice production.

 

[Master P]

Neither

 

[Echo Roku]

He hit 97 when everything went amazingly perfect for him. Chances aren't good he ever hits 100

I don’t see how this statement applies when he missed a tenth of the season

Or given he only broke out performance wise partway into the season

 

[The Abusement Park]

Don’t think Matthews has the potential to be as dynamic as Mackinnon, but I think he’ll be the more consistent player overall. So I’m saying that I homer vote Mack.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I believe studies on average point totals point to it being between 24 and 27, but that's for all players, and I don't think it's surprising that elite talents would peak earlier. That said, Kane's Art Ross was at 27, Datsyuk's two best years were at 29 and 30, Iginla's Art Ross was at 24, but his highest total was at 30. Likewise St. Louis's Art Ross was at 28 and his highest total at 31. Marchand has hit his highest total the last two years at 28 and 29. Wheeler just had a career year at 31. Ditto Giroux, Kessel and Kopitar, all at 30. Other ones since the lockout were Marc Savard at 29, Alfredsson at 33, Hossa at 28, and Briere at 29. Going back, Gilmour was at 29, Oates at 30, Messier was 29, and LaFontaine was 27. It certainly happens.

The overall point was, and I said it in my first or second reply to that poster, that it's "not uncommon" for a player to have their career high in points at age 22. And lately, that seems to be the trend, especially for players who made the NHL right away. Your list is full of guys who didn't start being regulars in the NHL until they were 22/23, so it stands to reason their best years would be around 4 or 5 years into their careers. For guys who enter at age 18, that means they'll be around 22 or 23 when they're in their fifth year.

One thing to keep in mind too is that for most players since the early 80s, scoring has generally gone down as their careers have played out, which makes it harder to top their previous totals even if they become a better player. There's a number of players who I would argue had better offensive years later in their career, but had lower totals due to league scoring (Sakic in '01, Jagr in '98, Forsberg in '03, Malkin in '12). The only real exceptions are the guys whose primes spanned the full season lockout where scoring went up after, like the aforementioned Iginla. Last year scoring went up again for the first time since then. It could be a one-off, which ends up making it tougher for MacKinnon to best his numbers, but if it's a trend, it might end up being easier.

See, I'm talking strictly about best total points. Sure, you could argue some of those guys had better years later on, but their actual career highs were at a younger age.

You're trying to go way too deep into the analysis when the original point was whether or not MacKinnon's 97 points would be his career best. He may very well become a better player later on (like Crosby was when he scored 51 goals and 109 points, but was well below his career high of 120 points), but that doesn't mean he'll surpass 97 points.

 

[Regal]

The overall point was, and I said it in my first or second reply to that poster, that it's "not uncommon" for a player to have their career high in points at age 22. And lately, that seems to be the trend, especially for players who made the NHL right away. Your list is full of guys who didn't start being regulars in the NHL until they were 22/23, so it stands to reason their best years would be around 4 or 5 years into their careers. For guys who enter at age 18, that means they'll be around 22 or 23 when they're in their fifth year.



See, I'm talking strictly about best total points. Sure, you could argue some of those guys had better years later on, but their actual career highs were at a younger age.

You're trying to go way too deep into the analysis when the original point was whether or not MacKinnon's 97 points would be his career best. He may very well become a better player later on (like Crosby was when he scored 51 goals and 109 points, but was well below his career high of 120 points), but that doesn't mean he'll surpass 97 points.

I know it's not uncommon. I was commenting on your post about what the average age is moreso that adding to your discussion with that poster.

Though you seem to misunderstand the 2nd part. I know you're talking about point totals and so am I. The point is one of the main factors that lead many players to have their highest point totals early (drop in league scoring as they go through their prime) may not apply to MacKinnon

 

[libertarian]

Mack is the better player. If he can replicate last season's performance then yes he hits 100+ and will solidify his position as one of the top 3 C's in the league.

Don't see Matthews ever hitting a 100 points but will not be surprised if he does. Don't get me wrong I think Matthews is a great young player but Mack is a better great young player.