Who is your choice at 4th

[cbjthrowaway]

michkov is going to be a monster and well worth the wait.

that said… i've talked myself into will smith. i think he's gonna be a jack hughes type player in short order. to me it's a coin flip between him and carlsson.

 

[squashmaple]

I just can't stomach the risk that comes with Michkov. Blue Jackets luck is too bad. Jarmo's luck is too bad. If he's the pick, the risk that something happens and we're left with nothing is just too great. I'd rather go for a lesser talent that doesn't bear that much risk. If you think that's cowardly, so be it. The difference isn't great enough between him and Smith or Carlsson to mitigate the risk for me.

 

[BB88]

{deleted most}

My opinion - but my post was so not aimed at proving that I am 100% right or that BBB is wrong, but it was aimed in response to BBB's serial responses that summarily dismissed any risk of Michov not getting to NA. There is some risk that that gets factored in, whether its 2%, 5%, 20% or higher. There is no science to precisely quantify that risk - each person would assess it differently. I am admittedly more risk averse than most posters given my line of work, etc., so I likely assign a higher risk percentage to Michov not getting to NA. But all decision makers assign their perceived risk factor to issues like this and apply that risk factor along with a laundry list of other factors in making business decisions, whether with regard to a future foreign commodities/construction contract price or drafting Michov at the 4 spot. We can argue whether the risk factor is 5% or 25%, but by definition the risk factor is not zero (nor is it 100%). That was the only intended point of my TLDR post. And no, European prospects are not the same as Russian prospects.

I didn’t claim it’s zero.

I asked how many top prospects have not jumped to NHL and/or haven’t been allowed to jump to the NHL?

As I said if people expect things will get that bad in Europe maybe avoid all the European prospects then

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

I'm fine with Michkov or Smith. Wont lose any sleep over it tbh.

Both are absolutely great prospects and drafting is 50% luck, so either one can very easily end up the better player.

 

[Cowumbus]

michkov is going to be a monster and well worth the wait.

that said… i've talked myself into will smith. i think he's gonna be a jack hughes type player in short order. to me it's a coin flip between him and carlsson.

In order to be anything like Jack Hughes he needs to be a much better skater.

Bobby Ryan maybe.

 

[anotherlurker]

About the risk of Michkov staying in KHL: I think it's smaller than before the war. KHL is/was Putins little pet project where he would spend a lot of money for reasons unrelated to making more money. Now that the war is eating up a lot of that easy gas/oil -money, that means KHL will be getting less, and that means players will come to NHL more eagerly for that sweet sweet money. Nevertheless the risk is still real, but I think only in a situation where he doesn't become a real superstar and ends up a tweener, and therefore he might as well stay in Russia. Before the war the risk was more real I think and I believe everybody remembers Radulov, ( and Kaprizov's threaths).

Edit: Oh yeah and there is still the threat of him forced to serve in military. Maybe not in war but still training like Ivan Fedotov, if he pisses the wrong people. That could take some time also. Nevertheless I voted Michkov because superstars rock.

 

[stevo61]

About the risk of Michkov staying in KHL: I think it's smaller than before the war. KHL is/was Putins little pet project where he would spend a lot of money for reasons unrelated to making more money. Now that the war is eating up a lot of that easy gas/oil -money, that means KHL will be getting less, and that means players will come to NHL more eagerly for that sweet sweet money. Nevertheless the risk is still real, but I think only in a situation where he doesn't become a real superstar and ends up a tweener, and therefore he might as well stay in Russia. Before the war the risk was more real I think and I believe everybody remembers Radulov, ( and Kaprizov's threaths).

The rich teams will remain rich and the poor teams will remain poor will they not? I doubt too much changes with the top teams

 

[ViD]

The rich teams will remain rich and the poor teams will remain poor will they not? I doubt too much changes with the top teams

That’s pretty much the case. The best Russian players will still make a ton of money, a lot of euro players also left allowing teams to spend that salary budget money elsewhere

 

[anotherlurker]

The rich teams will remain rich and the poor teams will remain poor will they not? I doubt too much changes with the top teams

I tried to find sources but damn I'm bad at searching anything (somebody could help).., But for example the Gazprom, which is basically state owned gas/oil company, has pumped a lot of money to KHL, and when that company's businesses are f***ed up as it is now, it will reflect to its sponsoring money and therefore teams can make lesser offers that previously. Not to mention all the other actors, which are not in a good shape either to spread sponsor money. If you think KHL is financed by ticket money / fan merchandise, I think you are slightly mistaken.

 

[stevo61]

I tried to find sources but damn I'm bad at searching anything (somebody could help).., But for example the Gazprom, which is basically state owned gas/oil company, has pumped a lot of money to KHL, and when that company's businesses are f***ed up as it is now, it will reflect to its sponsoring money and therefore teams can make lesser offers that previously. Not to mention all the other actors, which are not in a good shape either to spread sponsor money. If you think KHL is financed by ticket money / fan merchandise, I think you are slightly mistaken.

I didnt say ticket money, but again I think rich teams will continue to be fine.There is no way they will completely pull all of their money

 

[anotherlurker]

That’s pretty much the case. The best Russian players will still make a ton of money, a lot of euro players also left allowing teams to spend that salary budget money elsewhere

This is actually a good point I didn't think about too much. Now when they have to find players mostly from inside their own country, I can imagine it frees up some money to make better offers for Russian players, though I doubt teams are willing to spent too much of their budget to just one player.

 

[majormajor]

In order to be anything like Jack Hughes he needs to be a much better skater.

Bobby Ryan maybe.

He won't be anything like Hughes, he's the opposite of that when it comes to skating skill.

But Smith has vision and playmaking ability that Bobby Ryan could only dream of.

For now my best comp is Patrick Kane circa 2020-2022.

 

[BB88]

That’s pretty much the case. The best Russian players will still make a ton of money, a lot of euro players also left allowing teams to spend that salary budget money elsewhere

How much do the biggest players earn in the KHL?

Saw a report saying 1M is top tier money these days and thought that can’t be true?

 

[ViD]

How much do the biggest players earn in the KHL?

Saw a report saying 1M is top tier money these days and thought that can’t be true?

Officially, the highest salary in the KHL right now is $1.5m. But keep in mind that Russia has a much lower income tax than the US and that number doesn’t include bonuses.

 

[BB88]

Officially, the highest salary in the KHL right now is $1.5m. But keep in mind that Russia has a much lower income tax than the US and that number doesn’t include bonuses.

Let’s say Michkov goes 4th, he’s able to sign a 12M/3y elc

Shane Wright Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

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So is KHL really a threat money wise anymore?

Keep in mind NHL is a superior league with far better sponsor chances

 

[ViD]

Let’s say Michkov goes 4th, he’s able to sign a 12M/3y elc

Shane Wright Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Shane Wright contract, salary, cap hit, salary cap, aav, career earnings, lifetime earnings, aav, advanced stats, transaction history, trade history, and rfa or ufa free agent status

www.capfriendly.com

So is KHL really a threat money wise anymore?

Keep in mind NHL is a superior league with far better sponsor chances

By official numbers, no, it can’t compete with the NHL, but again, team owners can assign bonuses or some other under the table payments to jack it up if they have to.

 

[Crede777]

Honestly, outside of #1 OA who knows what Jarmo will do. I got all worked up when he took PLD over consensus #3 Puljujarvi and since then haven't relied on a "this guy is clearly #2, #3 etc." since to try to anticipate the CBJ pick.

If we are fortunate enough to pick 2nd, I won't blink if they select Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, or Smith there. Jarmo could take Michkov #2 and with a totally straight face say "he was the most talented player available at that pick so we took him." Heck Jarmo would probably say "we know he has a contract but we expect him to come over this summer" and Portzline will write a whole piece on it before the team gets "blindsided" by the fact that Michkov chooses to stay in Russia for multiple more seasons.

It's been too long since this team has had an "enigmatic Russian."

 

[Cowumbus]

He won't be anything like Hughes, he's the opposite of that when it comes to skating skill.

But Smith has vision and playmaking ability that Bobby Ryan could only dream of.

For now my best comp is Patrick Kane circa 2020-2022.

Idk who his comp is, but for skating I think it’s Bobby Ryan - not Hughes.

I’d say stylistically, Dylan Strome might be a good comp.

 

[Finner]

If we pick at 4th its sad very sad moment for organization

 

[BB88]

By official numbers, no, it can’t compete with the NHL, but again, team owners can assign bonuses or some other under the table payments to jack it up if they have to.

I get that, but this isn’t Kaprizov situation

Michkov can make 12M on his elc while playing on a superior league, + sponsors.
Kaprizov as a 5th round pick had max .925M p.bonuses, Michkov can have 3M


So I’m not concerned with him staying in the KHL extra because of money, I doubt given the Worlds situation anyone is giving him 10M per year to stay extra

 

[KJ Dangler]

He won't be anything like Hughes, he's the opposite of that when it comes to skating skill.

But Smith has vision and playmaking ability that Bobby Ryan could only dream of.

For now my best comp is Patrick Kane circa 2020-2022.

He’s not remotely Patrik Kane 2020-2022 .. I would say young Patrik Kane as a great comp though . You keep pushing the same narrative , and all the scouts are saying much different . Some teams have him above Carlsson, that speaks to his ability

 

[BB88]

 

[Monk]

He’s not remotely Patrik Kane 2020-2022 .. I would say young Patrik Kane as a great comp though . You keep pushing the same narrative , and all the scouts are saying much different . Some teams have him above Carlsson, that speaks to his ability

This is from the first article that comes up about him in a google search:

"Smith’s skating might limit him a little bit in the NHL, as it won’t look quite as great against professional competition, though his hands and playmaking are so good that it might be a non-factor."

Kane put up 92 points in the 2021-2022 season. Not sure why this comparison is peeving you so much.

 

[Xoggz22]

Much about Michkov coming to the NHL is all about timing. I don't factor in the Russian factor because there are many Russians that come regardless of their standing in the KHL or their future. Just alone for the CBJ we've had Gavrikov, Marchenko, Chinakhov and apparently Voronkov. That's a 6th, 2nd, 1st and 4th round pick coming out of Russia and all could have likely been well compensated in Russia but wanted to play in the NHL. They all are coming at different ages. Michkov will be no different based on reports he wants to play in the NHL. His contract certainly can be restrictive but there are ways around that as well if he said he wants to come sooner. I wouldn't expect it but I don't have any fear he wouldn't come to the NHL, nor does it appear he's like Filatov.

As for Smith, he's not close to a Bobby Ryan skater. I'm no expert so all I do is read and watch highlights and games where I can. He's no Jack Hughes but his skating would not be a detraction to his game. Any improvement would only make him that much better. And he's an 18 year old kid with time on his side to get stronger and improve. He's NHL average if not better by several accounts. If we're talking about skating concerns you need to include Leo in that list as his skating is worse. He's just bigger and plays a different style game. Certainly more engaged in all 3 zones but he needs skating work. And, again, that's from the same experts that find Smith's skating to be more than adequate if not a plus.

I realize I sound like a Smith defender. I'm not, but I do think he's got special gifts that would be welcome on this team if that's what it came down to. I'm still focused on Bedard or Fantilli, then we'll see what happens.

Please 5/8... hurry and get here!

 

[cbjthrowaway]

"Smith’s skating might limit him a little bit in the NHL, as it won’t look quite as great against professional competition,

worth noting that there isn't a draft-eligible player i can remember outside mcdavid who this didn't apply to