Prospect Info: Who is Canucks #9 prospect?

[RandV]

These rankings are all over the place because the majority of people are voting based on NHL readiness and a good chunk of people are voting based on how valuable a prospect is. Next time it should be made clear how we are evaluating our prospects... I believe we should be voting based on asset value.

Sorry but using Vey as the standard you're way off base here, the rankings are fine.

Linden Vey voting:
1 - NA
2 - 01 - 00.42%
3 - 11 - 05.42%
4 - 36 - 14.23$
5 - 50 - 18.12%
6 - 56 - 25.11%
7 - 83 - 38.25%
8 - 115 - 60.21%

Frankie Corrado has mirrored these results and has been a few votes/percent ahead at every step. Maybe a few people are confused and I guess are probably the ones complaining but the majority are able to balance NHL readiness vs asset value, in which 'readiness' is a factor that falls under asset value.

Right now Demko is falling behind in asset value because while he was drafted in a higher position than the pick to acquire Vey was at being a goalie prospect he's a loooong ways off.

 

[MS]

i dont even understand where this comes from, tbh. i hear it a lot from people that dont watch him but ive yet to really engage with a primary source i trust that has legit concerns about his defence. when you're attacking with the frequency and effectiveness that he does, its not even really a concern

Being able to read the play, play fundamentally sound defense, and win puck battles is absolutely fundamental to being a quality defender at the NHL level. If you can't do that, you're rubbish ... no matter how skilled you are.

Hutton didn't impress me defensively at all in a brief viewing last summer (and yeah I know it's a small sample size) and none of the scouting reports I've seen have him really better than decent/adequate at his current level.

I don't know enough right now to know whether he's a soft/weak defensive player when he moves up levels or a non-physical positionally sound guy who'll get by well. Until I get a better read, I'm not getting ahead of myself and getting too excited.

I thought the Cassels pick was good at the time and all he's done since is leapfrog a bunch of players who were drafted before him. He's a long way from a blue chipper, obviously, but he should be in the top 10.

Cassels was below the median in terms of improvement for CHL players selected in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft.

Most of our recent picks have been so rubbish that people get overly excited when a mid-round pick has an OK/expected improvement in his draft+1 year.

And again, I'm not a big fan of his toolbox. He's not a great skater and doesn't have a great shot, and pretty obviously projects as a bottom-6 NHL center at best. Decent size and grit and a bit of playmaking ability.

 

[HockeyHobo73]

I cant wait for the prospects tourney!

 

[Verviticus]

Being able to read the play, play fundamentally sound defense, and win puck battles is absolutely fundamental to being a quality defender at the NHL level. If you can't do that, you're rubbish ... no matter how skilled you are.

Hutton didn't impress me defensively at all in a brief viewing last summer (and yeah I know it's a small sample size) and none of the scouting reports I've seen have him really better than decent/adequate at his current level.

ive seen only slightly more of him than you and everything about him screamed "people have no idea how to evaluate my defensive skillset" to the point where i wouldn't trust any scouting report that isn't definitive in its criticism. i haven't actually seen any that are so i just have limited viewing and information from a couple people i trust vOv

 

[MS]

ive seen only slightly more of him than you and everything about him screamed "people have no idea how to evaluate my defensive skillset" to the point where i wouldn't trust any scouting report that isn't definitive in its criticism. i haven't actually seen any that are so i just have limited viewing and information from a couple people i trust vOv

Unfortunately almost nobody has an idea how to evaluate defensive skillsets, and there's almost nobody I consider reliable.

Which is, as I said, why I'm being conservative in rating Hutton until I see him play regularly at a level I'm familiar with. I'm not saying he'll be a bust or anything, I'm just not going to lose my **** over him when I simply don't know.

 

[Verviticus]

ok. thats fair.

 

[Blue Suede Shoes]

Hutton for me, I love his skill set. I also really like Cassels and Fox. I feel like they've both got pretty good chances to play in the NHL as Bottom 6 forwards at least, with higher upside. And I realize it might sound a bit ridiculous to say your #11 prospect has a good chance to play in the NHL - but again, I think this is a reflection of how deep our prospect pool is right now. I like Demko too. The thing is, until a goalie gets to the AHL level and dominates there, he is such a mystery. And even after dominating at the AHL level, a goalie is still fairly hard to predict. But Demko is as talented as any goalie prospect there is, so he's got a great foundation.

 

[cc]

Judging from some posters, it sounds like jeremie blain should have been added to the list.

 

[DCantheDDad]

Went Demko.It is really tough to choose once we are down this far, though.

 

[Steveorama]

We might have several potential NHL regulars in our system, but where are the potential 1st liners, 1st pairing D, Above Average #1 G? Virtanen and maybe Demko. Is Horvat a first liner? Skinkaruk? I see 2nd line potential here, not 1st. This system just doesn't have the blue chippers we had like when we were developing the Sedins for example.

Bear in mind, the Sedins are the only top-5 picks we have had in the past 15 years.
If you want can't-miss 1st line potential, you have to pick high. Even then, it isn't guaranteed. And your team has to be crap to pick top-5. We can't have it both ways.

 

[ARSix]

Shinkaruk has more first line potential than anyone else in the pool. He's just not as likely as many high first round picks to meet that potential.

 

[ginner classic]

Hutton for me here. Then I probably go Subban/Fox/Demko/Cassels. Something like that.

Subban ahead of demko? What the heck are you people on?

 

[tc 23]

It was a tough call between Cassels and Hutton here, but ultimately went with Hutton.

 

[Powder]

Demko has the potential to be a #1 goalie. If you guys think Hutton has more value than that, well I would sure as hell be happy to be wrong on this vote.

 

[Proto]

Subban ahead of demko? What the heck are you people on?

Easy choice for me. If Subban was 4 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier he would have been a 1st round pick. I think he'll end up being strong/heavy enough for his height to overcome that issue and be an interesting NHLer. He won't be your typical skillset though, so I have my doubts that it will be with Vancouver, but you never know.

Demko is whatever. We'll see in 6 years.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Unfortunately almost nobody has an idea how to evaluate defensive skillsets, and there's almost nobody I consider reliable.

Which is, as I said, why I'm being conservative in rating Hutton until I see him play regularly at a level I'm familiar with. I'm not saying he'll be a bust or anything, I'm just not going to lose my **** over him when I simply don't know.

Another prospect assessment of your's I agree with. SO incredibly disappointed he didn't sign this summer.

 

[Proto]

Demko has the potential to be a #1 goalie. If you guys think Hutton has more value than that, well I would sure as hell be happy to be wrong on this vote.

Goalies out of the University program strike me as altogether more unlikely to provide much supplemental value above and beyond their ELC. By the time he's established himself, he'll probably be at or near his UFA years and will be paid market value. There's also little or no organizational room for goaltenders who don't become #1's -- they're inevitably moved somewhere else (for essentially nothing) to become a career backup.

I just don't see a lot of value in the pick. It could turn out, but there are a lot of guys I'm more interested in. When was the last time the Canucks drafted a defenseman with a draft year as good as Jordan Subban's?

 

[Reign Nateo]

Actually encouraging to see prospect depth like this, guys like Hutton, Fox and Demko are pretty solid prospects to have rounding out your top 10 list.

Again, I'd probably swap Vey and Jensen and it looks pretty good. I think Demko and Hutton will both be risers next year and finish a lot higher in the rankings.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Goalies out of the University program strike me as altogether more unlikely to provide much supplemental value above and beyond their ELC. By the time he's established himself, he'll probably be at or near his UFA years and will be paid market value. There's also little or no organizational room for goaltenders who don't become #1's -- they're inevitably moved somewhere else (for essentially nothing) to become a career backup.

I just don't see a lot of value in the pick. It could turn out, but there are a lot of guys I'm more interested in. When was the last time the Canucks drafted a defenseman with a draft year as good as Jordan Subban's?

Subban has to prove that he not only has the skill to be an NHL defenceman, but that he can handle the size differential at the pro level. That is a lot to prove before I rank him in the top 10, unfortunately. Looking at the mini-camp just held, Subban wasn't just shorter than other prospects, he was shockingly small. At this point its unfortunately a matter of percentages.

 

[Steveorama]

I just don't see a lot of value in the pick. It could turn out, but there are a lot of guys I'm more interested in. When was the last time the Canucks drafted a defenseman with a draft year as good as Jordan Subban's?

Demko is among the favourites to start for USA at the World Juniors in December.
Subban did not even get an invite to the Team Canada 41-man summer camp.
I hope Subban surprises us all, and I think he may...but to rank him ahead of Demko at this point is silly.

 

[Proto]

Subban has to prove that he not only has the skill to be an NHL defenceman, but that he can handle the size differential at the pro level. That is a lot to prove before I rank him in the top 10, unfortunately. Looking at the mini-camp just held, Subban wasn't just shorter than other prospects, he was shockingly small. At this point its unfortunately a matter of percentages.

That's fine. I'd only put Subban's likelihood of being an above average NHLer at probably 25%, with about a 50-60% likelihood of him having a career like Yannick Weber's career. But isn't Subban already around 170-175 pounds? That's not significantly lighter than an Erik Karlsson or whathaveyou. With his elite skating and offensive skills, Jordan has a shot to be an impact player.

Honestly, in terms of pure averages, I'd probably put Fox ahead of him, but I think Subban has a higher ceiling and he interests me more, so I probably lean towards him for those reasons. I don't expect him to rank higher than 15 in this poll, though.

 

[Proto]

Demko is among the favourites to start for USA at the World Juniors in December.
Subban did not even get an invite to the Team Canada 41-man summer camp.
I hope Subban surprises us all, and I think he may...but to rank him ahead of Demko at this point is silly.

Starting goaltenders in the Juniors have a sterling track record, too. Maybe he'll provide as much value as Justin Pogge

And of course Jordan Subban wouldn't get an invite. The Team Canada junior team is a caveman-run tirefire the last half decade. Even if he's a PPG defenseman this year, they won't take him because he's too "risky".

 

[Steveorama]

Starting goaltenders in the Juniors have a sterling track record, too. Maybe he'll provide as much value as Justin Pogge

And of course Jordan Subban wouldn't get an invite. The Team Canada junior team is a caveman-run tirefire the last half decade. Even if he's a PPG defenseman this year, they won't take him because he's too "risky".

So, in summary, both Team Canada and Team USA's coaching staff dropped the ball regarding these two players?
While Subban's skill-set intrigues me, I will be pleasantly surprised if he ever gets to be an NHL regular.
Demko is much more likely to be drawing a regular NHL paycheque, at the end of the day, in my opinion (and, presumably, all NHL scouting staffs' opinion, based on relative draft positions).

 

[Proto]

Demko is much more likely to be drawing a regular NHL paycheque, at the end of the day, in my opinion (and, presumably, all NHL scouting staffs' opinion, based on relative draft positions).

Statistically, I don't believe this is true. Subban's likelihood of being an NHLer based on his draft-year production is probably around 45-50%. I sincerely doubt Demko's likelihood of being an NHLer is higher than that.

I didn't say anything about the US team dropping the ball. I just suggested that starting junior goaltenders don't have the best track record. Would you take any of Team Canada's junior goalies last year over Jordan Subban, for example? Over Ben Hutton? Or Dane Fox? I'm not sure I'd take any of them for free...

 

[Powder]

Statistically, I don't believe this is true. Subban's likelihood of being an NHLer based on his draft-year production is probably around 45-50%. I sincerely doubt Demko's likelihood of being an NHLer is higher than that.

I didn't say anything about the US team dropping the ball. I just suggested that starting junior goaltenders don't have the best track record. Would you take any of Team Canada's junior goalies last year over Jordan Subban, for example? Over Ben Hutton? Or Dane Fox? I'm not sure I'd take any of them for free...

Just wondering, where do you keep getting these percentages from? Do you have a list of all players over the last decade to have his draft-year production and then see that 45-50% of them actually make the NHL, or are you just guessing? Because that's essentially what it would take.

If we want to look at percentages relative to draft position, I can tell you his chances are a lot lower than that. Doing a quick search, I came up with this article that sites how in the 1990's, only 12% of players drafted beyond the third round make it to the NHL.

Even though Subban may have fallen because of his size, he is not the first and certainly not the last where size was an issue. Even if he is more skilled than some drafted ahead of him, his size is still a factor that gives him a serious disadvantage. I'm sure there are plenty of skilled players that didn't make it to the NHL for various reasons, with size being one of them. His chances are nowhere near 45-50%.