Prospect Info: Who is Canucks #9 prospect?

[ginner classic]

Easy choice for me. If Subban was 4 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier he would have been a 1st round pick. I think he'll end up being strong/heavy enough for his height to overcome that issue and be an interesting NHLer. He won't be your typical skillset though, so I have my doubts that it will be with Vancouver, but you never know.

Demko is whatever. We'll see in 6 years.

IF?


Subban is very likely not going to make the NHL. There are very few NHL d-men under 5-10. Very few. The ones that are there are mostly curiosities. He's worse off than Steve Kariya. He has almost no chance of being a regular NHL player.


Contrast that to the top ranked goalie in a decent goalie draft.


It is not even close.

 

[Powder]

Statistically, I don't believe this is true. Subban's likelihood of being an NHLer based on his draft-year production is probably around 45-50%. I sincerely doubt Demko's likelihood of being an NHLer is higher than that.

I didn't say anything about the US team dropping the ball. I just suggested that starting junior goaltenders don't have the best track record. Would you take any of Team Canada's junior goalies last year over Jordan Subban, for example? Over Ben Hutton? Or Dane Fox? I'm not sure I'd take any of them for free...

Also, you'd be surprised at the "sterling track record" of junior starting goalies. Looking back at the draft history of goalies drafted in the first two rounds (who are essentially highly-rated junior starting goalies) from 2002 to 2009 (basically looking at goalies aged 25 to 32, who either could be entering the NHL or are in their primes), 21 out of the 39 (54%) goalies drafted in those positions have made the NHL at least as a backup in some capacity.

So quite frankly, the odds you are talking about where Demko has very low odds of making the NHL vs. the higher odds of Subban are flipped. Just doing some rough research shows that Demko has a 54% chance while Subban has a 12% chance. Of course those figures can be adjusted but at least that gives us a ballpark.

Finally, I don't care about whether or not I get any free years from them. I'd rather have a #1 goalie come out at 25 or 26 than have a #5 or 6 quarterback specialist defenseman come out at 22 or 23. And in Subban's case, I think that would be optimistic.

 

[MS]

I like Subban, think he was a very good pick, and think that he has a decent job of bucking the odds a la Jared Spurgeon to become an NHL player.

And I'm not a fan of drafting goalies and rank them lower in general than their draft position would indicate.

But Demko is pretty clearly a better prospect than Subban at this point, and was selected nearly 100 spots higher in the draft for a reason. Demko should be somewhere in the 9-11 range and Subban down around 13-15.

 

[Proto]

I disagree, but only because I think Subban's draft position is a result of his size (an error by NHL general managers, in my opinion).

And for those asking, Subban's draft year production puts him at about a 50% chance to make the NHL. If he was 6'0 180 pounds at the time of the draft he would have been a Top 25 pick. So the question is whether people really think he'll be incapable of playing at 5'8 180 pounds, when talented players like Karlsson/Duncan Keith are able to play in the league because they're a few inches taller.

Edit: as I said, my argument against Demko's "value" as a prospect is that I don't expect him to provide a heck of a lot of supplemental value to the franchise based on his career path (university). By the time he's ready, the best case scenario is the Canucks is to be paying him his market rate within 2-3 seasons of making the NHL. That seems like a bad gamble to me. If you're going to draft a goalie early in the draft, a non-University kid that is going to adjust to a heavy workload is a better option, in my opinion, preferably one playing in a European league against men.

 

[Cogburn]

I voted Hutton, but I feel so weird voting for someone I can't verify on NHL 13.

Demko is a close second to me.

Cassels, Fox, Subban, and Tryamkin are allfollowing, although in what order I can't say.

 

[Ernie]

Cassels was below the median in terms of improvement for CHL players selected in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft.

Most of our recent picks have been so rubbish that people get overly excited when a mid-round pick has an OK/expected improvement in his draft+1 year.

And again, I'm not a big fan of his toolbox. He's not a great skater and doesn't have a great shot, and pretty obviously projects as a bottom-6 NHL center at best. Decent size and grit and a bit of playmaking ability.

Cassels was drafted in the late 3rd round. If you look at all the CHL forwards and re-draft them a year later, you probably take him late in the 2nd round. You'd hope to get useful a player with that pick.

We just traded a late 2nd rounder to get Vey, which some would argue is an overpayment, and yet people are ok with him at 8th in the prospect list while it looks like Cassels will drop to 12th? Makes no sense.

Either Vey is overrated or Cassels is underrated. I'm guessing it's a little of both.

 

[ChilliBilly]

not sure where to rank these guys:

Tryamkin, Kenins, Demko .... could all be top tier some day ...

and wonder whether moving Subban to forward would improve his chances ...

 

[Proto]

Cassels was drafted in the late 3rd round. If you look at all the CHL forwards and re-draft them a year later, you probably take him late in the 2nd round. You'd hope to get useful a player with that pick.

We just traded a late 2nd rounder to get Vey, which some would argue is an overpayment, and yet people are ok with him at 8th in the prospect list while it looks like Cassels will drop to 12th? Makes no sense.

Either Vey is overrated or Cassels is underrated. I'm guessing it's a little of both.

Your calculus is a bit off, though. If you look at Vey's development, he tracks more like a late 1st round pick that's developing well. People complaining about the 2nd are off base, in my opinion.

 

[Wisp]

IF?


Subban is very likely not going to make the NHL. There are very few NHL d-men under 5-10. Very few. The ones that are there are mostly curiosities. He's worse off than Steve Kariya. He has almost no chance of being a regular NHL player.

Most prospects are 'very unlikely to make the NHL' but 'almost no chance' is pure hyberbole. He has two contrary trends - guys his size don't often make it but guys like him with that sort of CHL point production often do.

He's a gym rat and a dedicated athlete, plus modern NHL is starting to favour NHL d-men who are puck carriers who can break the puck out. Not so farfetched his offensive skillset allows him to carve out a niche, a la Torey Krug (who is 5'09).

 

[MS]

I disagree, but only because I think Subban's draft position is a result of his size (an error by NHL general managers, in my opinion).

And for those asking, Subban's draft year production puts him at about a 50% chance to make the NHL. If he was 6'0 180 pounds at the time of the draft he would have been a Top 25 pick. So the question is whether people really think he'll be incapable of playing at 5'8 180 pounds, when talented players like Karlsson/Duncan Keith are able to play in the league because they're a few inches taller.

That draft year production % includes players who have NHL size, though.

If you took a snapshot of CHL defenders who were sub-5'10", it wouldn't be 50%.

Cassels was drafted in the late 3rd round. If you look at all the CHL forwards and re-draft them a year later, you probably take him late in the 2nd round. You'd hope to get useful a player with that pick.

We just traded a late 2nd rounder to get Vey, which some would argue is an overpayment, and yet people are ok with him at 8th in the prospect list while it looks like Cassels will drop to 12th? Makes no sense.

Either Vey is overrated or Cassels is underrated. I'm guessing it's a little of both.

Cassels was a late 3rd-rounder who had a solid season. Again, people are really over-rating what he did - that sort of production jump should be par for the course for a skill forward taken where he was. 5 other CHL players taken in the 3rd round had even bigger production jumps.

He passed a few guys but others (Oliver Bjorkstrand for ie) would have passed him. He's still a guy with 3rd round value. So I don't see how there's a discrepancy when a guy with 2nd round value (who is closer to the NHL) is rated ahead of him.

It's obviously good that Cassels had a good season and didn't go off track, but he isn't a blue-chip prospect by any stretch. It's been so long since we drafted a first-time draft eligible CHL guy with a 2nd-5th round pick (Prab Rai 2008 was the last) and even longer since one had a good draft+1 season (Harold Druken 1997 - no joke!) that I think maybe it's being overrated a bit.

 

[ARSix]

Cassels was a late 3rd-rounder who had a solid season. Again, people are really over-rating what he did - that sort of production jump should be par for the course for a skill forward taken where he was. 5 other CHL players taken in the 3rd round had even bigger production jumps.

He passed a few guys but others (Oliver Bjorkstrand for ie) would have passed him. He's still a guy with 3rd round value. So I don't see how there's a discrepancy when a guy with 2nd round value (who is closer to the NHL) is rated ahead of him.

It's obviously good that Cassels had a good season and didn't go off track, but he isn't a blue-chip prospect by any stretch. It's been so long since we drafted a first-time draft eligible CHL guy with a 2nd-5th round pick (Prab Rai 2008 was the last) and even longer since one had a good draft+1 season (Harold Druken 1997 - no joke!) that I think maybe it's being overrated a bit.

Great post and agreed 100%.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

I went with Fox. I have a hunch he will be a stud

 

[Proto]

That draft year production % includes players who have NHL size, though.

If you took a snapshot of CHL defenders who were sub-5'10", it wouldn't be 50%.

Perhaps, but I'd put Subban's weight/future playing weight in the "barely undersized" category. Players like Karlsson/Keith/etc play around 180-185, and Jordan Subban has the same dynamic skating as some really successful NHLers.

Also, PK has thes wingspan of a 6'2 or 6'3 hockey player I believe (pitseleh mentioned this when Jordan was drafted). If Jordan has a similar build, his height will be less of a disadvantage, as he will have the reach of a taller player.

Still, I don't really expect that many people will agree with me. We'll just have to wait and see how he does.

 

[MS]

Perhaps, but I'd put Subban's weight/future playing weight in the "barely undersized" category. Players like Karlsson/Keith/etc play around 180-185, and Jordan Subban has the same dynamic skating as some really successful NHLers.

Also, PK has thes wingspan of a 6'2 or 6'3 hockey player I believe (pitseleh mentioned this when Jordan was drafted). If Jordan has a similar build, his height will be less of a disadvantage, as he will have the reach of a taller player.

Still, I don't really expect that many people will agree with me. We'll just have to wait and see how he does.

I don't entirely disagree with you, aside from the 'barely undersized' comment. He'll be right there with Krug/Spurgeon/Ellis as one of the 2 or 3 smallest defenders in the NHL if he makes it, and that's 'very undersized'.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Voted Hutton, think he would go first in a draft of remaining players,
Hutton
Demko
Fox
McEnery
are likely second round picks or higher worth then we go down a tier to the next group, many who would not be worth 3rd round picks even if they make the NHL. Kind of like Mike Brown who was a good 5th round pick however has never been worth more than a 5th round pick. Vey for this reason was ranked a bit high IMO. We could do a whole organization thread about each players asset worth.

 

[Proto]

I don't entirely disagree with you, aside from the 'barely undersized' comment. He'll be right there with Krug/Spurgeon/Ellis as one of the 2 or 3 smallest defenders in the NHL if he makes it, and that's 'very undersized'.

Fair enough. I think if he ends up at 185 he'll have a bit of weight on the smallest of the small. He'll weight as much as Tanev does now.

Also keep in mind that PK is 6' and plays at 215-220. If Jordan is similarly built, he could end up playing at 5'8 190-195 without losing any of that elite skating ability. I'm just saying there's a path there for Jordan Subban that others (not you) are probably dismissing out of hand.

I'm just really hoping he ends up on a better squad in his final year in the CHL.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

I think Hutton is a great prospect - but I don't understand how he is beating out Demko in this vote... for me an 18 year old "best undrafted goalie" is a better NHL prospect than a 21 year old "converted forward" defenceman - despite the Hobey Baker consideration.

It would be good to add Cannata, Labate, Lain, Friesen, Grenier, McNally, Blain, Tommernes, Andersson, Cederholm...

S_C

 

[Snow Horvat]

Fair enough. I think if he ends up at 185 he'll have a bit of weight on the smallest of the small. He'll weight as much as Tanev does now.

Also keep in mind that PK is 6' and plays at 215-220. If Jordan is similarly built, he could end up playing at 5'8 190-195 without losing any of that elite skating ability. I'm just saying there's a path there for Jordan Subban that others (not you) are probably dismissing out of hand.

I'm just really hoping he ends up on a better squad in his final year in the CHL.

from an nhl.com article on friday:

Jordan, who works out with P.K at Laylor Performance Systems in Toronto during the summer, estimated he's added "probably 10 pounds at least" since being listed at 175 pounds at the draft.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=726146

hopefully he's not just gassing himself up

 

[Sharpshooter]

Sorry but using Vey as the standard you're way off base here, the rankings are fine.

Linden Vey voting:
1 - NA
2 - 01 - 00.42%
3 - 11 - 05.42%
4 - 36 - 14.23$
5 - 50 - 18.12%
6 - 56 - 25.11%
7 - 83 - 38.25%
8 - 115 - 60.21%

Frankie Corrado has mirrored these results and has been a few votes/percent ahead at every step. Maybe a few people are confused and I guess are probably the ones complaining but the majority are able to balance NHL readiness vs asset value, in which 'readiness' is a factor that falls under asset value.

Right now Demko is falling behind in asset value because while he was drafted in a higher position than the pick to acquire Vey was at being a goalie prospect he's a loooong ways off.

The rankings are bunk imho. Vey ought not to be used as the standard. He wasn't available in the 1st round, and quite frankly many Canuck fans are oblivious/ignorant about him prior to his acquisition.

It's possible that many are basing their votes on who they 'feel' has the most value, or their 'gut feelings', or who they guess will be the best at the end of their careers, but as for who the best right now are, many fans are not basing their votes with that standard in mind.

 

[Proto]

from an nhl.com article on friday:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=726146

hopefully he's not just gassing himself up

Nice.

And I doubt it. As I said, PK is about 3-4 inches taller and weights 215-220. Jordan playing around 190-195 isn't a huge reach.