Who do you think the Wings will get with their first pick?

[Pavels Dog]

2016?


O sorry he isn't in the ahl yet but everyone says 5 years minimum before he is NHL ready.

Everyone is also really pessimistic about all our prospects right now, mirroring the emotions people have about the roster. Making a projection about a prospect 5 years into the future is impossible. Cholowski could be ready in 1-2 years, or never. Or something in between.

 

[Frk It]

Everyone is also really pessimistic about all our prospects right now, mirroring the emotions people have about the roster. Making a projection about a prospect 5 years into the future is impossible. Cholowski could be ready in 1-2 years, or never. Or something in between.

Our own GM says it takes 5 years for a prospect to make it (or make an impact) but we are pessimistic for echoing that?

ok.............

Also I'd say we were previously too optimistic with Jurco, Sproul, Ouellet, Sheahan, Nyquist, Tatar etc.... if anything we are being more realistic now.

 

[jkutswings]

Everyone is also really pessimistic about all our prospects right now, mirroring the emotions people have about the roster. Making a projection about a prospect 5 years into the future is impossible. Cholowski could be ready in 1-2 years, or never. Or something in between.

True. But all fans have to go on is how prospects have developed over the last several years. The majority have spent a very long time in the minors, then become middle of the roster players, so that doesn't seem unreasonable to use as a baseline for the next crop of kids. We'll see if the trend continues, or if things change.

 

[Henkka]

If we win Top3 pick, obvious choise is one of Patrick-Hischier-Liljegren.

That's imo quite lock Top3 in this draft and even more lock if considering Red Wings needs.

If we don't win any of the first 3 lottery picks and end up with 5th-6th overall, either Necas or Mittelstadt could be our guy.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Our own GM says it takes 5 years for a prospect to make it (or make an impact) but we are pessimistic for echoing that?

ok.............

Also I'd say we were previously too optimistic with Jurco, Sproul, Ouellet, Sheahan, Nyquist, Tatar etc.... if anything we are being more realistic now.

And he says a rebuild takes 10 years. It makes sense for him to put a longer timeframe on these things, it essentially buys himself more time. Ask him in 2014 when Larkin was going to hit the NHL and he probably talks about 2-3 years. The question was about when we last had a 1st rounder in the AHL for 5 years and I don't think Cholowski is a good answer to that when it's not even been 1 year since he was drafted.

 

[Frk It]

And he says a rebuild takes 10 years. It makes sense for him to put a longer timeframe on these things, it essentially buys himself more time. Ask him in 2014 when Larkin was going to hit the NHL and he probably talks about 2-3 years. The question was about when we last had a 1st rounder in the AHL for 5 years and I don't think Cholowski is a good answer to that when it's not even been 1 year since he was drafted.

I can understand that. But you have seen Cholowsk, right? I mean he looks like he is 16. I don't think it is pessimistic to say he will take a little longer than normal.

And aren't you of the mindset that Larkin shouldn't even be in the NHL now?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I can understand that. But you have seen Cholowsk, right? I mean he looks like he is 16. I don't think it is pessimistic to say he will take a little longer than normal.

And aren't you of the mindset that Larkin shouldn't even be in the NHL now?

A lot can happen in an offseason. Could see him doing 2-3 years of college and then jumping straight into the NHL, bypassing the AHL entirely. Lots of possibilities.

Larkin should be in the NHL, ideally he probably shouldn't have been last season. Playing 20+ minutes as center in the AHL all or most of last year might have been better for him longterm. I don't like rushing prospects, both Jurco and Larkin have failed to live up to rookie seasons and were brought up very quickly.

 

[Frk It]

A lot can happen in an offseason. Could see him doing 2-3 years of college and then jumping straight into the NHL, bypassing the AHL entirely. Lots of possibilities.

Larkin should be in the NHL, ideally he probably shouldn't have been last season. Playing 20+ minutes as center in the AHL all or most of last year might have been better for him longterm. I don't like rushing prospects, both Jurco and Larkin have failed to live up to rookie seasons and were brought up very quickly.

I'm just a little confused as to how you don't like rushing prospects, but in the same breath are frustrated at people being conservative with their projections on when guys make the team.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

And he says a rebuild takes 10 years. It makes sense for him to put a longer timeframe on these things, it essentially buys himself more time.

Do you think that's what he's trying to do when he says that? My impression has always been that he's using it as an excuse not to rebuild. He's sort of saying: "Rebuilding takes too long. You guys don't really want that." Which I think makes sense considering he's at the tail end of his career.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

Do you think that's what he's trying to do when he says that? My impression has always been that he's using it as an excuse not to rebuild. He's sort of saying: "Rebuilding takes too long. You guys don't really want that." Which I think makes sense considering he's at the tail end of his career.

I heard a Toronto media outlet saying they want holland at GM.


All I could think of was,

TAKE HIM PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD PLEEEEEEEASE

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'm just a little confused as to how you don't like rushing prospects, but in the same breath are frustrated at people being conservative with their projections on when guys make the team.

Don't be, there's a middle ground between 1 year (Larkin) and 5 years (projections for Cholo on this board). I don't want a guy in the NHL as soon as he may be able to survive there, I want them there when they start reaching a point where they have nothing left to learn at a lower level.
Larkin was exciting to watch but one season in the AHL might have allowed him to take more faceoffs than he has in all this NHL time, he could have been playing 20 minutes a night in all situations building confidence and learning to kill penalties and be a powerplay contributor. We'd lose that exciting first half he had, but we might be a lot better off this season.
2-3 years is reasonable development time for a mid or late-1st.

 

[Frk It]

Don't be, there's a middle ground between 1 year (Larkin) and 5 years (projections for Cholo on this board). I don't want a guy in the NHL as soon as he may be able to survive there, I want them there when they start reaching a point where they have nothing left to learn at a lower level.
Larkin was exciting to watch but one season in the AHL might have allowed him to take more faceoffs than he has in all this NHL time, he could have been playing 20 minutes a night in all situations building confidence and learning to kill penalties and be a powerplay contributor. We'd lose that exciting first half he had, but we might be a lot better off this season.
2-3 years is reasonable development time for a mid or late-1st.

I don't disagree (speaking in generalities), I just think it should also be situational. As far as how long it takes first rounders to develop. You can't just put a universal timeline out there for any first rounder.

Cholowski had a growth spurt in his draft year, is a late bloomer, and was a late riser. He's still settling into his body and who knows if he is even done growing. We may just agree to disagree, but I think he should be projected on the longer side for very legitimate reasons. He's not as polished or developed as guys like Fabbro, which is part of why I don't think he even gets consideration for events like the WJC. If he figures it out sooner, then great. But he just very much seems to me like the type of prospect that needs time to put things together for a couple different reasons. The biggest indicator we will get is how he handles the jump in competition to AHL hockey, I think there is going to be an adjustment period there.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

Don't be, there's a middle ground between 1 year (Larkin) and 5 years (projections for Cholo on this board). I don't want a guy in the NHL as soon as he may be able to survive there, I want them there when they start reaching a point where they have nothing left to learn at a lower level.
Larkin was exciting to watch but one season in the AHL might have allowed him to take more faceoffs than he has in all this NHL time, he could have been playing 20 minutes a night in all situations building confidence and learning to kill penalties and be a powerplay contributor. We'd lose that exciting first half he had, but we might be a lot better off this season.
2-3 years is reasonable development time for a mid or late-1st.

How would you have handled Mantha?

 

[jkutswings]

I don't disagree (speaking in generalities), I just think it should also be situational. As far as how long it takes first rounders to develop. You can't just put a universal timeline out there for any first rounder.

Cholowski had a growth spurt in his draft year, is a late bloomer, and was a late riser. He's still settling into his body and who knows if he is even done growing. We may just agree to disagree, but I think he should be projected on the longer side for very legitimate reasons. He's not as polished or developed as guys like Fabbro, which is part of why I don't think he even gets consideration for events like the WJC. If he figures it out sooner, then great. But he just very much seems to me like the type of prospect that needs time to put things together for a couple different reasons. The biggest indicator we will get is how he handles the jump in competition to AHL hockey, I think there is going to be an adjustment period there.

I was curious about the 2-3 year timeframe, so I did some research.

Based on the premise of 2-3 years being accurate, I skipped the 3 most recent drafts, since the jury is probably still out on several of those players. But I looked at the 2010-2013 drafts, picks 15-30, to see how long those players took to reach their first year of playing a significant number (I arbitrarily chose 30) of NHL games. (I didn't count a year with under 10 NHL games, and for 10-29, I called it a half year.)

Each of the 4 drafts had an average of 2.2 to 3.6 years, but each draft had a spread of 1 to 5 (or even 6) years.

So I agree that it's a reasonable duration on average, but also that each case is different.

 

[Suavecito]

When has he ever done that? Ever?

He does that when he's picking 25th or later and by that point in most drafts there isn't much difference between that and the guy taken 35th.

Since 2002, the Wings traded a first for 2 seconds or a second and a third in 2011 (picking 24th, forgoing Matt Puempel), 2009 (picking 29th, forgoing Carter Ashton), 2006 (forgoing Chris Summers, a Michigan boy, picking 29th), 2002 (picking 30th, forgoing Jim Slater).

Holland has NEVER traded a pick for multiple later picks unless he was at the absolute tail end of the first round and frankly, you might be better off with two bites at the apple at that point instead of the one late 1st.

When has he ever traded a top ten pick to move back into the second round? The answer is never.

When has he truly reached on a guy with a higher pick? Kindl was supposed to be a damn good player when he was taken 19th. Brendan Smith was a Hobey Baker finalist when he was taken in the first round. Sheahan was a solid defensive center and as recently as two years ago had a 36 point year... in Detroit, no less.

Stop talking out of your ass. Holland messes up enough and has enough actual warts on his resume that you don't have to resort to making them up.

Lighten up Francis...Ever heard of 'sarcasm'?

 

[Pavels Dog]

How would you have handled Mantha?

Pretty much exactly the way we did. Maybe extending his call-up last season and having him on the team from day 1 this year, but that's minor details.

 

[FissionFire]

When was the last time the Wings had a first round pick in the AHL for five or more years?

McCollum immediately comes to mind.