The Athletic Who are the top NHL prospects under 23 years old? Scott Wheeler ranks top 50

[Doug Prishpreed]

What? I’m talking about the guys drafted this year. I’m talking about guys like Quinn/Rossi who have played plenty of games since getting drafted.

Even regarding Rossi vs. Quinn -- he's watched both of them play a ton and has backed up his opinion. Not sure how anyone could possibly have an issue with that. There is no right or wrong here, both players did very well last year.

He pointed out that Quinn's production fell in theplayoffs, and most scouts put a premium on playoff performance.

 

[Matt Ress]

Even regarding Rossi vs. Quinn -- he's watched both of them play a ton and has backed up his opinion. Not sure how anyone could possibly have an issue with that. There is no right or wrong here, both players did very well last year.

He pointed out that Quinn's production fell in theplayoffs, and most scouts put a premium on playoff performance.

From the comments, he mentioned that they both had very good AHL seasons but Rossi plays a premium position, center. Wheeler did explain his rankings.

What I got from it is that he places 2022 prospects pretty high, if they were high on his board, based on their shear perceived ceiling, essentially by not having the opportunity yet to flub their Wheeler board order. Even compared to say, a Quinn that has out performed their draft status and seemingly out performed Wheeler's predictions, he does not waver from his old predictions. I can appreciate the steadiness but I clearly don't agree with his rigidity.

 

[Wordofmouth]

You guys sure as hell care a lot about a random list.

Welcome to late July

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Even regarding Rossi vs. Quinn -- he's watched both of them play a ton and has backed up his opinion. Not sure how anyone could possibly have an issue with that. There is no right or wrong here, both players did very well last year.

He pointed out that Quinn's production fell in theplayoffs, and most scouts put a premium on playoff performance.

I'm not really too bothered by how high he is on Rossi. Where I see an issue is the Holtz ranking vs Quinn. Holtz wasn't exactly lights out in the playoffs either, and only scored 3 points in 5 games when he was basically a point/game player in the regular season.

On the other side of that Peterka is only an honorable mention even though he performed even better in the playoffs and helped carry a team that barely made it in to the 3rd round.

 

[Ace]

Saying both Quinn and Rossi had a good AHL season as a reason to keep the guy who had the much much much less productive season far AHEAD of the guy who had the better one is the equivalent of Rob Ray saying it wasn’t a bad period by the Sabres down 2 to 0. They didn’t have close to the same season in the AHL where they can be in a same tier. He’s just a stubborn guy whose brain melted down when Rossi fell and will not admit he was wrong

 

[old kummelweck]

Ranking is such a weird pastime but what else is there to do during the dog days of summer?

 

[CowbellConray]

Tage Thompson and Jonathan Huberdeau both had good NHL seasons. One with 68 in 78 and the other with 115 in 80. But Huberdeau only had 5 points in 10 games in the playoffs so Tage is better.

Cmon now - I get liking a prospect but there isn't a SINGLE thing Rossi has done in the past two years since being drafted to be over Quinn in any ranking, and that's not even calling out the difference on Scott's list is TWENTY spaces.

 

[sabremike]

Even regarding Rossi vs. Quinn -- he's watched both of them play a ton and has backed up his opinion. Not sure how anyone could possibly have an issue with that. There is no right or wrong here, both players did very well last year.

He pointed out that Quinn's production fell in theplayoffs, and most scouts put a premium on playoff performance.

You can prefer Rossi and that's fine. The problem is having a 20 player gap between the two is completely ridiculous and indefensible because even if you prefer Rossi the gap between the two is incredibly close (and I mean not for nothing but Quinn producing at a historic rate in the AHL and playing NHL games and not looking out of place is more meaningful than what he or Rossi did when they were 17 or in some junior tournament).

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You can prefer Rossi and that's fine. The problem is having a 20 player gap between the two is completely ridiculous and indefensible because even if you prefer Rossi the gap between the two is incredibly close (and I mean not for nothing but Quinn producing at a historic rate in the AHL and playing NHL games and not looking out of place is more meaningful than what he or Rossi did when they were 17 or in some junior tournament).

Calling it indefensible is ridiculous -- it's definitely defensible.

He may have scored at a "historic rate" in a small sample size, during the regular season. But when it counted, he scored zero goals in several rounds of playoffs. Not a asingle one. He barely even got any assists. He basically totaly shit the bed in terms of production when it really counted.

If you're going to say he's better because "points," you you have to acknowledge that he failed by that criteria when the pressure was on.

 

[CowbellConray]

Calling it indefensible is ridiculous -- it's definitely defensible.

He may have scored at a "historic rate" in a small sample size, during the regular season. But when it counted, he scored zero goals in several rounds of playoffs. Not a asingle one. He barely even got any assists. He basically totaly shit the bed in terms of production when it really counted.

If you're going to say he's better because "points," you you have to acknowledge that he failed by that criteria when the pressure was on.

I think the argument that Playoff points are extremely more important than regular season points is a stretch.

The Rochester Americans only made the playoffs this season because of Quinn and his insane ability to score and will the team during the regular season. When the team was lacking secondary scoring, it was Quinn having 3 and 4 point nights keeping W's on the board. So if Quinn puts up 60 in 45 instead of 61, and the loss of that point doesnt allow Rochester to make the playoffs, all of a sudden Quinn is a better prospect because he didn't struggle in the playoffs?

Not to mention, the nuance of these situations is important too - Quinn was injured in the playoffs, was targeted in the first two rounds by the opponent (actually singled out as the guy we MUST shut down), and allowed JJP to explode like he did. Does Quinn need to continue to work on his physical ability to push through teams that will target him? Absolutely. But to sit here and claim this playoffs show a lack of ability when he put up potentially the best under 20 AHL season ever is in my opinion short sighted.

Rossi had a good D+2 season. 53 in 63 is good. Maybe he is a better comparable against JJP. But Quinn put up 61 in 45, 2 in 2 at the NHL level, and was targeted as THE player in the playoffs. Rossi doesn't sniff that.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I think the argument that Playoff points are extremely more important than regular season points is a stretch.

The Rochester Americans only made the playoffs this season because of Quinn and his insane ability to score and will the team during the regular season. When the team was lacking secondary scoring, it was Quinn having 3 and 4 point nights keeping W's on the board. So if Quinn puts up 60 in 45 instead of 61, and the loss of that point doesnt allow Rochester to make the playoffs, all of a sudden Quinn is a better prospect because he didn't struggle in the playoffs?

Not to mention, the nuance of these situations is important too - Quinn was injured in the playoffs, was targeted in the first two rounds by the opponent (actually singled out as the guy we MUST shut down), and allowed JJP to explode like he did. Does Quinn need to continue to work on his physical ability to push through teams that will target him? Absolutely. But to sit here and claim this playoffs show a lack of ability when he put up potentially the best under 20 AHL season ever is in my opinion short sighted.

Rossi had a good D+2 season. 53 in 63 is good. Maybe he is a better comparable against JJP. But Quinn put up 61 in 45, 2 in 2 at the NHL level, and was targeted as THE player in the playoffs. Rossi doesn't sniff that.

I love watching people get upset just because someone disagreed with them on subjective topic.

 

[CowbellConray]

I love watching people get upset just because someone disagreed with them on subjective topic.

I didnt know people were getting upset. I think there is a discussion to have around every ranking, but I havent seen anything from either this thread or the one on the prospect board that has shown a decent let alone good reason as to why Rossi would be 20 spots above Quinn.

 

[Deevo]

This list is certifiably insane.

 

[Chainshot]

This list is certifiably insane.

For a lot of lists...

 

[Sabre Dance]

I didnt know people were getting upset. I think there is a discussion to have around every ranking, but I havent seen anything from either this thread or the one on the prospect board that has shown a decent let alone good reason as to why Rossi would be 20 spots above Quinn.

Last year he was 31 spots above Quinn.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Calling it indefensible is ridiculous -- it's definitely defensible.

He may have scored at a "historic rate" in a small sample size, during the regular season. But when it counted, he scored zero goals in several rounds of playoffs. Not a asingle one. He barely even got any assists. He basically totaly shit the bed in terms of production when it really counted.

If you're going to say he's better because "points," you you have to acknowledge that he failed by that criteria when the pressure was on.

lol what. You can't trust a 45-game sample size because it's too small, but a different set of 10 proves something?

Unless math has changed considerably since I was in school, 45 is a lot more than 10.

 

[Zach716]

lol what. You can't trust a 45-game sample size because it's too small, but a different set of 10 proves something?

Unless math has changed considerably since I was in school, 45 is a lot more than 10.

Besides that, anybody following along the livestream of those games can backup that we got to round 3 of the playoffs because Quinn was getting explicitly targeted and physically abused, not in spite of it. He was opening it up for the rest of the team. NHL teams won't be allowed to get away with that against him. (both amateur refs ignoring borderline physical assaults on the ice and strategically targeting only him)

Those games didn't put me off on Quinn. If anything, it was impressive that multiple teams implored the same tactic to neutralize Amerks as they saw him as such a threat.

 

[couture23]

lol what. You can't trust a 45-game sample size because it's too small, but a different set of 10 proves something?

Unless math has changed considerably since I was in school, 45 is a lot more than 10.

Very well put.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

lol what. You can't trust a 45-game sample size because it's too small, but a different set of 10 proves something?

Unless math has changed considerably since I was in school, 45 is a lot more than 10.

Talk to a scout -- they weigh playoffs more. So do NHL GMs. I can provide quotes if you don't believe me. 10 playoff games do definitely mean more to me than 45 regular season games against lesser goalies, and lesser teams.

That said, I don't think you should be looking at points to evaluate a player in the first place-- that's my whole point. That's basically NHLe, which is garbage.

The main reason I bring up playoffs points is to play devil's advocate, and explain why others have different opinions than everyone on here seems to have. There is no right or wrong, everyone has different metrics.

Besides that, anybody following along the livestream of those games can backup that we got to round 3 of the playoffs because Quinn was getting explicitly targeted and physically abused, not in spite of it. He was opening it up for the rest of the team. NHL teams won't be allowed to get away with that against him. (both amateur refs ignoring borderline physical assaults on the ice and strategically targeting only him)

Those games didn't put me off on Quinn. If anything, it was impressive that multiple teams implored the same tactic to neutralize Amerks as they saw him as such a threat.

You could say the same about Rossi, but it started at the beginning of the regular season, not the playoffs.

 

[Dirty Dog]

It is sorta funny that by covering the NHL draft, he gets to roleplay as a global scout.

Gosh, every year he has time to scout every league to give his draft opinions? And in his spare time, he also scouts all previously-drafted players to rank them?

I’m not mad about it, most of us are guilty of this as well! But there is a certain suspension of disbelief to think there are organizations that employ many scouts to study a subset of players…all in the hopes of defying an extremely high failure rate. Yes, most prospects don’t pan out. YET, wheeler and us think we somehow have the authority to rank players (essentially doing the job of dozens of people). Just the idea of any of us ranking prospects is silly, but fun. Which is the point.

It’s his goofy list. Fun. It’ll be objectively awful in time (these lists always are), but who cares, it isn’t meant to be right: Wheeler’s Final Top 60 Prospects for the 2015 NHL Draft by League

 

[RefsIdeas]

It is sorta funny that by covering the NHL draft, he gets to roleplay as a global scout.

Gosh, every year he has time to scout every league to give his draft opinions? And in his spare time, he also scouts all previously-drafted players to rank them?

I’m not mad about it, most of us are guilty of this as well! But there is a certain suspension of disbelief to think there are organizations that employ many scouts to study a subset of players…all in the hopes of defying an extremely high failure rate. Yes, most prospects don’t pan out. YET, wheeler and us think we somehow have the authority to rank players (essentially doing the job of dozens of people). Just the idea of any of us ranking prospects is silly, but fun. Which is the point.

It’s his goofy list. Fun. It’ll be objectively awful in time (these lists always are), but who cares, it isn’t meant to be right: Wheeler’s Final Top 60 Prospects for the 2015 NHL Draft by League

This is pretty spot on. I’ve seen many bright people mention that Wheeler can’t possibly have an informed take on that many players. Same goes for Pronman. Amateur scouts typically follow a defined area, scout a few dozen guys and will only see them live a handful of times and it’s their full-time job. Wheeler isn’t an authority on anything and articles like this are simply to generate clicks/people to subscribe to The Athletic.

If you want informed takes about players, going to independent scouting services (FC Hockey, Black Book, even EP Rinkside) is a good place to start.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I'm surprised more people aren't focusing how high Savoie is, rather than Quinn being a bit low.

For all the complaining about Wheeler underappreciating Quinn, I think this fanbase underappreciates Savoie.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It is sorta funny that by covering the NHL draft, he gets to roleplay as a global scout.

Gosh, every year he has time to scout every league to give his draft opinions? And in his spare time, he also scouts all previously-drafted players to rank them?

I’m not mad about it, most of us are guilty of this as well! But there is a certain suspension of disbelief to think there are organizations that employ many scouts to study a subset of players…all in the hopes of defying an extremely high failure rate. Yes, most prospects don’t pan out. YET, wheeler and us think we somehow have the authority to rank players (essentially doing the job of dozens of people). Just the idea of any of us ranking prospects is silly, but fun. Which is the point.

It’s his goofy list. Fun. It’ll be objectively awful in time (these lists always are), but who cares, it isn’t meant to be right: Wheeler’s Final Top 60 Prospects for the 2015 NHL Draft by League

I gueruntee Yzerman has just as many misses on his lists. It's literally impossible to have a consistently great track record at this. Fortunately for Yzerman, you don't have to be great, you just have to be better than the other teams.

 

[Zman5778]

I'm surprised more people aren't focusing how high Savoie is, rather than Quinn being a bit low.

For all the complaining about Wheeler underappreciating Quinn, I think this fanbase underappreciates Savoie.

IMO, it balances out -- Savoie is about as over-rated in Wheeler's list just as much as Quinn is under-rated.

 

[Zach716]

You could say the same about Rossi, but it started at the beginning of the regular season, not the playoffs.

You watched 63 games of the AHL Iowa Wild? Or even say 40?

You could say a lot of things but a bunch of us were livestreaming and watching every game and it was clear what was happening.