Movies: Who are the early 2019 Oscar Contenders?

[ORRFForever]

Here is the shortlist of nine films chosen to contend for an Oscar nomination in 2019:

Colombia, “Birds of Passage”
Denmark, “The Guilty”
Germany, “Never Look Away”
Japan, “Shoplifters”
Kazakhstan, “Ayka”
Lebanon, “Capernaum”
Mexico, “Roma”
Poland, “Cold War”
South Korea, “Burning”

They got the four big ones right, and I am glad to see The Guilty sneak in--so not bad, as these things go.

The foreign film category?

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

I used to get annoyed that despite having its own category that proper comedies never received recognition by the Globes, but I've accepted that it's a comedy category in name only.

I mean it's odd to think that of all the films that Peter Farrelly has made, the film that globe voters deemed to be the most worthy of a "best comedy" award is Green Book rather than the stuff with his brother over the years.

Was discussing this with a friend the other night. I was amused at the fact that two-fifths of the Best Director nominees also were responsible for Dumb & Dumber, There's Something About Mary, Kingpin, Anchorman and Step Brothers and that all of those movies are better than Green Book and Vice.

 

[kihei]

The foreign film category?

Yup. For some reason, after the movies are submitted by each country by October 1 (usually around 85 films in all, give or take a little), the Academy creates a shortlist of nine films in mid-December which will compete for the five available nominations when those nominations are announced for all categories in January. I'm not absolutely sure why this happens, but presumably to give a little push to films that most people have never heard of.

 

[kihei]

Shazam! According to the bookies at OddsChecker and EasyOdds, Roma is the new betting favourite for Best Picture with odds as low in some instances as 10/11. Kind of a good news/bad news things as the fates have not been kind to front runners at this stage of the proceedings.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

I don't think there's enough of a political/social message in A Star is Born for it to make a dent at awards shows.

For sure, though I never thought that'd be a hindrance to it in the first place -- more that its strength lied in it being a remake of a classic Hollywood franchise (it's not a franchise, but you know what I mean). So, in a sense, it was another film that celebrated Hollywood / payed tribute to old movies, and those usually fair pretty well at the Oscars (The Artist and La La Land for recent examples, among others).

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Shazam!

And here at first glance I was silly enough to think kihei wanted to share some sort of insight on an upcoming DC superhero movie.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

For sure, though I never thought that'd be a hindrance to it in the first place -- more that its strength lied in it being a remake of a classic Hollywood franchise (it's not a franchise, but you know what I mean). So, in a sense, it was another film that celebrated Hollywood / payed tribute to old movies, and those usually fair pretty well at the Oscars (The Artist and La La Land for recent examples, among others).

Birdman ... another recent winner about showbiz.

Also don't underrate the fact that actors are the biggest voting block and the movie was directed by an actor. The Oscars LOVE awarding actors for doing non-actor things like directing and writing — Eastwood, Redford, Costner, Gibson, Emma Thompson, Affleck and Damon all have Oscars for directing or writing. I don't think Cooper will win for directing, but I wouldn't be stunned to see the movie win (not unlike Argo and Affleck .. hey, now that I think about it, that's sort of about showbiz too, isn't it?)

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Birdman [… ..] hey, now that I think about it, that's sort of about showbiz too, isn't it?)

Yep and yep. Good call on the Cooper factor as well.

Honestly, I could even seen the major Globes shutout having the opposite effect on a A Star is Born, with it gaining more support by many who all of a sudden aren't so sure it will be getting the recognition it deserves, and maybe prioritize it over a few passion films they previously had ranked higher, just to make sure.

 

[kihei]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Except there is a great big X factor here that needs to be taken into consideration. Outside of hype, A Star Is Born hasn't won much of anything anywhere this awards season. Minus the hype, it wouldn't even be a dark horse at this point. Doesn't mean the Academy won't adopt it as its own, but I seriously doubt those guys are going to vote in huge numbers for a movie that is so obviously flawed and has been rejected by so many critics and critics' organizations. Here's Metacritic's scorecard:

Best of 2018: Film Awards & Nominations Scorecard

 

[kihei]

And here at first glance I was silly enough to think kihei wanted to share some sort of insight on an upcoming DC superhero movie.

Actually it's my next book. It consists of 100 blank pages and contains all anybody needs to know about superhero movies. A very existential approach actually. Or you can use the pages to write grocery lists.

 

[discostu]

Speaking of superhero movies, BAFTA nominations are out. It's not the best Oscar predictor, but, Black Panther was shut out of the nominations outside of special effects.

I had felt it was a pretty solid lock for a best picture nomination, but I'm starting to have some doubts. It doesn't seem to be a part of any serious conversations right now. Beale Street and Blackkklansman are both in a lot of conversations so there isn't any push around BP from a representation perspective.

With the Golden Globe win Bohemian Rhapsody getting a nomination would be an easy thing to point to as recognition of a film that's more popular with general audiences than with critics, so there may not be a desire to recognize both as an appeal to general audiences (despite being widely different films). Also, the fact that Spiderverse seems to be the favourite for best animated film would demonstrate that the academy does see the superhero genre of deserving recognition, albeit in a category that doesn't get taken too seriously.

I've felt BP was a lock for a while now, but I'm starting to have doubts on whether it will get recognized with a nomination.

 

[kihei]

Speaking of superhero movies, BAFTA nominations are out. It's not the best Oscar predictor, but, Black Panther was shut out of the nominations outside of special effects.

I had felt it was a pretty solid lock for a best picture nomination, but I'm starting to have some doubts. It doesn't seem to be a part of any serious conversations right now. Beale Street and Blackkklansman are both in a lot of conversations so there isn't any push around BP from a representation perspective.

With the Golden Globe win Bohemian Rhapsody getting a nomination would be an easy thing to point to as recognition of a film that's more popular with general audiences than with critics, so there may not be a desire to recognize both as an appeal to general audiences (despite being widely different films). Also, the fact that Spiderverse seems to be the favourite for best animated film would demonstrate that the academy does see the superhero genre of deserving recognition, albeit in a category that doesn't get taken too seriously.

I've felt BP was a lock for a while now, but I'm starting to have doubts on whether it will get recognized with a nomination.

I still think it is a lock for a Best Picture nomination. After all the controversy a couple of years ago, the Academy would have to be pretty tone deaf to ignore it. Plus, such a snub would very likely cut into the number of viewers on Awards night, which I'm sure the Academy doesn't want to do either. Just a really different situation than in Britain.

 

[kihei]

Some well-reasoned predictions before Tuesday's release of the Oscar nominations:

https://www.vulture.com/2019/01/osc...4.1288190226.1547834218-1871654894.1477115860

 

[Trap Jesus]

Is Toni Collette really not getting any buzz for Hereditary? Thought that performance was amazing. Also disappointed that it looks like Thomasin McKenzie doesn't look to have a shot.

 

[kihei]

Here is the complete list of Oscar nominees:

BEST FILM
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST SOUND EDITING
Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker, Black Panther
John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone, Bohemian Rhapsody
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man
Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl, A Quiet Place
Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma

BEST SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin, Black Panther
Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali, Bohemian Rhapsody
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis, First Man
Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and Jose Antonio Garcia, Roma
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow, A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Ruth Carter, Black Panther
Sandy Powell, The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Bryne, Mary Queen Of Scots

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING
Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer, Border
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks, Mary Queen of Scots
Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney, Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle Of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End Of Sentence

BEST FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

 

[kihei]

moved to Oscar nomination thread