Speculation: Which teams can still afford to make a high end offer sheet this year?

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

I'm curious to see which teams out there today would still be capable of making a high end offer sheet as we near the season. I know a lot of teams have started out filling out their cap after July 1st - but some have cap space left, some have the ability to make room and some of course don't even have the picks to qualify.

What are teams who have the following 3 criteria:

1. The necessary picks to even make an offer sheet as per the rules (I think only a couple of teams would be disqualified here right?)

2. Cap space to afford a high salary to an RFA (8-10M$ per minimum, probably more), or

3. The ability to realistically make room for 8-10M$+ easily enough (ie Toronto? Likely really hard to make room. Some other teams might have it a lot easier)

Anyone wanna attempt at coming up with a list here? I supposed it mostly comes down to the 3rd criteria, since most teams likely have picks and very few have the completely open cap space.

ReggieDunlop7 · Sep 16, 2019

Anaheim... maybe Ottawa, although their internal cap makes this unlikely.

saintunspecified · Sep 16, 2019

1. Many teams do, including the Islanders
2. or 3. Ladd will year on IR & with 10% overage NYI have the cap space, but

4. A trade would make far more sense than an offer sheet at this point. Obviously NYI and WPG match up, but one has no idea whether they would get together.

42 · Sep 16, 2019

Currently only Ottawa, Columbus, Winnipeg and Colorado have the cap space for offers > 8 million. Of those two, Winnipeg and Colorado are out as they have their own RFAs to sign. I don't see Ottawa making an offer sheet and Columbus seems equally unlikely.

As already mentioned, other teams that do not currently have the cap space can make a move to free the necessary amount.

Easternbull · Sep 16, 2019

https://www.tsn.ca/darren-ferris-mi...re-signing-with-toronto-maple-leafs-1.1366327

Don't want to talk about Marner anymore, but teams are willing to use the offer sheet option, and prepaired to go BIG or go home!

ThankGord · Sep 16, 2019

Detroit can, plenty of cap space (once Zetterberg and Franzen are on LTIR) and all necessary draft picks, but I don't see it happening.

herzausstein · Sep 16, 2019

Anaheim has the space and picks.

Columbus has the space but they don't have the picks unless it's 4 1st (10.5M + 0ffersheet) and that'd put them right up against the cap.

Senators do but the player has to be willing to sign the offersheet as well... and the senators look like they still have a couple years before being competitive again

Tampa and Winnipeg have some space but they've still got their own RFAs hanging out there (though i suppose they could trade them and re-coup picks lost in an offersheet)

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

Easternbull said:
https://www.tsn.ca/darren-ferris-mi...re-signing-with-toronto-maple-leafs-1.1366327

Don't want to talk about Marner anymore, but teams are willing to use the offer sheet option, and prepaired to go BIG or go home!

Fun read thanks for posting.

On the one hand - Marner was always rumored to be asking for top $$ (not that the other RFAs are not, but even moreso with Marner it seemed) so the fact that he said no right away and wanted to make it work in TOR is a bit telling. Of course on the other hand - the Leafs were already offering him a lot of money. Rumor is some of these other RFAs may be offered quite a bit less $$. Maybe an offer sheet would become more attractive.

I'd love to find out if Marner's offer sheet was 4 1sts, or below. 4 1sts would be pretty incredible/surprising if true. Below that? No issue whatsoever.

Advanced stats · Sep 16, 2019

Is Carolina close to having enough money?

Because if I were the GM there, I'd send Laine a 9x5 offer sheet yesterday.

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

Advanced stats said:
Is Carolina close to having enough money?

Because if I were the GM there, I'd send Laine a 9x5 offer sheet yesterday.

Yeah Laine seems like an easy one tbh. I could buy him being unhappy in Winnipeg/willing to leave more than almost any other top RFAs. And although there is some risk to him - anything below 4 1sts seems like it's a risk worth taking.

I'm surprised this hasn't happened yet.

Advanced stats · Sep 16, 2019

bobholly39 said:
Yeah Laine seems like an easy one tbh. I could buy him being unhappy in Winnipeg/willing to leave more than almost any other top RFAs. And although there is some risk to him - anything below 4 1sts seems like it's a risk worth taking.

I'm surprised this hasn't happened yet.

And to me, Carolina seems like a perfect fit. Do whatever it takes, offering anything but the max 4 firsts imo.

Just Linda · Sep 16, 2019

42 said:
Currently only Ottawa, Columbus, Winnipeg and Colorado have the cap space for offers > 8 million. Of those two, Winnipeg and Colorado are out as they have their own RFAs to sign. I don't see Ottawa making an offer sheet and Columbus seems equally unlikely.

As already mentioned, other teams that do not currently have the cap space can make a move to free the necessary amount.

Other teams can go over by 10 percent eh? Most teams have the cap to make an offer at this point if it's 8m.

42 · Sep 16, 2019

Sick Nuzuki said:
Other teams can go over by 10 percent eh? Most teams have the cap to make an offer at this point if it's 8m.

It it's 8 million, Tampa matches easily. No point to make such an offer.

Khelandros · Sep 16, 2019

bobholly39 said:
Yeah Laine seems like an easy one tbh. I could buy him being unhappy in Winnipeg/willing to leave more than almost any other top RFAs. And although there is some risk to him - anything below 4 1sts seems like it's a risk worth taking.

I'm surprised this hasn't happened yet.

What's the risk on Laine? So far he's guaranteed to put up 30 goals, even in an off year.

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

42 said:
It it's 8 million, Tampa matches easily. No point to make such an offer.

The sweet spot for any offer sheet is 10.5 (or whatever the max is right below 4 1st picks).

None of the RFAs this year is really worth 4 1sts imo. Maybe on Matthews a team would have taken a gamble, but none of the other guys. But a lot of teams aren't offering their guys anywhere close to 10.5 it seems. So it seems like an easy fit for an offer sheet.

Marner always seemed likely to get above 10.5 - in fact it sounds like the Leafs offered him 11x7 in June. So that wasn't a fit. But if Laine and Point are being offered much less than 10.5, this could become attractive to them.

And for Point - think of it this way:

Point: "I want 10M$"
Tampa: "No - 7M$ max"
Point "ok i'll accept the 10.5 offer sheet"

Tampa probably matches, but he gets his 10.5, vs 7M$ salary if they do. Win/win for him, he gets more money and gets to stay in Tampa. And whatever team does the OS - sure there's a good chance Tampa matches, but maybe they don't, so it's a risk worth taking. And if they do? Well - you just hurt the Cup favorite's cap situation, so it's not a bad thing.

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

Khelandros said:
What's the risk on Laine? So far he's guaranteed to put up 30 goals, even in an off year.

Lack of consistency and supposedly attitude/effort issues last season? Seems obvious. There's a big gap between his ceiling and floor. His ceiling is probably 50-60+ goals, and maybe close to 90-100 points.

his floor is a really crappy season, with a bunch of consistency issues - still some goals scored, but many games/stretches where he's a whole lot less effective and probably a defensive liability.

That's at least a 4M$ AAV difference in what i'd pay for the player at either end of that range.

42 · Sep 16, 2019

bobholly39 said:
The sweet spot for any offer sheet is 10.5 (or whatever the max is right below 4 1st picks).

None of the RFAs this year is really worth 4 1sts imo. Maybe on Matthews a team would have taken a gamble, but none of the other guys. But a lot of teams aren't offering their guys anywhere close to 10.5 it seems. So it seems like an easy fit for an offer sheet.

Marner always seemed likely to get above 10.5 - in fact it sounds like the Leafs offered him 11x7 in June. So that wasn't a fit. But if Laine and Point are being offered much less than 10.5, this could become attractive to them.

And for Point - think of it this way:

Point: "I want 10M$"
Tampa: "No - 7M$ max"
Point "ok i'll accept the 10.5 offer sheet"

Tampa probably matches, but he gets his 10.5, vs 7M$ salary if they do. Win/win for him, he gets more money and gets to stay in Tampa. And whatever team does the OS - sure there's a good chance Tampa matches, but maybe they don't, so it's a risk worth taking. And if they do? Well - you just hurt the Cup favorite's cap situation, so it's not a bad thing.

How many teams can make such an offer? Not many. And if Point accepts he risks Tampa not matching.

Mickey Marner · Sep 16, 2019

Teams have to be compliant by October, nobody is going 10% over the cap during training camp.

Khelandros · Sep 16, 2019

Monsieur Gustave H said:
Teams have to be compliant by October, nobody is going 10% over the cap during training camp.

You do realize Toronto is $15MM over the cap right now, right? That's 16% over the cap.

Mickey Marner · Sep 16, 2019

Khelandros said:
You do realize Toronto is $15MM over the cap right now, right? That's 16% over the cap.

No, the LTIR formula being used on capfriendly adds the LTIR pool onto the ceiling.

bobholly39 · Sep 16, 2019

42 said:
How many teams can make such an offer? Not many. And if Point accepts he risks Tampa not matching.

To the first bolded - I don't know. Hence why I made a thread asking

To the second - yes of course. But - if I'm Point - wouldn't I prefer to make 10.5M$ outside of Tampa than ~7M$ in Tampa, all else being equal? It's probably reasonable to expect he'd take a discount to stay with the team as many others have in Tampa (but - no guarantee) - but i don't know that it would be as much as 3M$+ AAV he'd take as a discount. At least - he shouldn't, he'd be leaving a lot of money on the table if he did.

Kamiccolo · Sep 16, 2019

Khelandros said:
You do realize Toronto is $15MM over the cap right now, right? That's 16% over the cap.

They have 4 players on LTIR. There is nothing to this.

Kevin27NYI · Sep 16, 2019

Islanders if we trade Leddy for futures.

Richard88 · Sep 16, 2019

Colorado doesn't have their 2020 2nd which rules out most offer-sheet alternatives.

JustaFinnishGuy · Sep 16, 2019

None.
It was apparent none would get completed after the Aho sheet, the chance was there and wasn't used.
There could be technically correct answers for your question but it won't happen at this point anymore.

Speculation: Which teams can still afford to make a high end offer sheet this year?

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