Avs, but that is because Avs had to. You couldn't role with the same defense as in previous years. Also, it seems Sakic and Roy learned through experience about injures the hard way and adjusted accordingly (though any team would have been devastated with Avs injury list last year). You just cannot play Cliche in the role he had last season. You just cannot let play Holden/Guenin in prominent roles. Cannot let Stuart play in the top 4.
I love all the moves they have made, I think people are making big deals about Comeau and Sekera over Beauchemin. I understand wanting "X" player over Com/Beau, but both make this team better. There are some wildcards, but if Rantanen makes this team (with how deep it is), it shows how good he is already for the NHL. And Grigorenko is probably going to the best possible location for him to play in with Roy/Avs offensive potency. Lastly, with the improvement Avs have seen with EJ under Roy, I am hoping for the same outcome with Zadorov as well.
IMO it is good to be optimistic about the upcoming season.
As for the others... *= compared to last season
St. Louis: Stagnated* - Definitely still is a superb regular season team with or without Tarasenko. Needs a direction in how to improve for the postseason and needs some culture change. But they will still be a top 3 club.
Nashville: Stagnated - They upgraded their defensive core a tad with Jackman slotting nicely into the bottom pairing role due to how deep that DCore is. Their young offensive players will be a year older, but I don't think any of them will have a major impact (not talking about Forsberg here, more of the Fialas' of their system). Healthy they are a top 3-4 team, still do not have the depth, but it is coming.
Chicago: Worst - Don't get me wrong, they are still a force to be reckon with, but their depth is definitely getting destroyed with Saad gone, Sharp in the future, and maybe even a buyout on Bickell. They got some good pieces coming back with Dano, but he is still at least a year from being an NHL quality player. Not an amazing regular season club, but very dangerous in the postseason. I would still fancy Avs chances against them if we ever played them in the playoffs. Still a playoff club.
Minnesota: Got a bit better - With the Reilly signing, their defensive core gets that much better. With the improvement of Brodin, Dumb, and Scandella, they have a legitimately strong top 6 if you include Suter in that as well. And of course one of the deepest forward group. Koivu will continue to regress, while I highly doubt Dubnyk will have the same impact for a full 82 game season...both will be big losses for them IMO (which will go a long way). Still a playoff club.
Winnipeg: Riding the course - I understand why people think they got worst with losing Frolik, but who cares when you're able to replace him with ****in Ehlers. Goaltending is still a question mark, but they have a deep enough prospect system to trade to improve this question (and of course Hellebuyck as well). I think a lot of their players might have overachieved** this year (which they will probably take a step back), but if there is a team with the best future, it is easily Jets. Wildcard/bubble club.
**= Especially during the injuries.
Dallas: Riding the course - I appreciate Nill's patience, they're riding the course and have some really good defensive prospects on the cusp of being NHL ready. This including their already young defensive players who took a substantial step last season. Nill might be hoping too much on their defensive prospects to become impactful players, that is my only concern. Offensively, they are killer, but still have some major concerns in inconsistencies on the back end and in net. Bubble playoff team if they were in any other division except Central. I think they will miss the playoffs again, but every game will be very tough against them.
I will say that Avs could very much improve this upcoming season and still not make the playoffs. Central is just a completely insane and ridiculously stacked division. One wildcard I keep coming back to in my head is Chicago's health. They have been absurdly healthy the last couple of seasons with the most major injures happening at the most opportune times with the most opportune injures. Toews with a shoulder strain from a check and Kane with a broken clavicle. This isn't Duchene's ACL sprain, EJ's knee scope, Landeskog's broken wrist, MacKinnon's broken foot, or Hejda's pin fingers (major hockey playing extremities). Keith and Seabrook as well have been fairly healthy, but are picking up some major baggage the last couple of seasons. Basing off the probability and possibility of a team having an injury filled year, it has got to be the Hawks.
And that is the story of Central division, 6 of the 7 teams are all playoff teams. The teams with the most significant injures will miss the playoffs.
1. Nashville Predators (Negative: Do not have depth)
2. St. Louis Blues (Negative: Weak goaltending & internal culture)
3. Colorado Avalanche (Negative: Too much uncertainty)
WC1. Minnesota Wild (Negative: Relying on overachieving players)
WC2. Chicago Blackhawks (Negative: A lot of baggage on core)
6. Winnipeg Jets (Negative: Relying on overachieving players)
7. Dallas Stars (Negative: Relying on too many young players to have quality seasons)
Those are my reasoning based on my interpretation thus far on offseason moves and teams on papers. I might have the Avs slotted a bit too high, but I still see the optimism of how well Avs played in the second half of the season with the injury list. Remember we missed our #1 defenseman and one of our major top 6 cores with monthly IR injures. This then goes along with Landeskog's bum hand (and possibly hip) and whole bottom 6 filled with 4 AHLers.