Which player is most likely to reach 60 goals in 2020-21?

[BB06]

Ovechkin Goal scoring isn’t sustainable? Now I’ve seen it all

 

[Dekes For Days]

You made good arguments in your previous post but arguably the best goal scorer of all time did not earn more PP time than anyone else?

It's not just "more PP time". It's the ridiculous discrepancy. And it's not "anyone else", it's everybody else. What Ovechkin did during his prime is irrelevant when looking at this year and what is most likely to happen next year. Ovechkin is maintaining his place with the top current goal scorers in raw production because of his increasing opportunity relative to them, not because he is immune to age. The discrepancy in opportunity between him and the other top goalscorers will almost certainly shrink moving forward, meaning he is highly unlikely to be the "most likely" to reach 60+ goals next year.

Ovechkin was not a very good PP point or goal producer this year, in a league or team sense. He did not deserve that PP TOI this year.

 

[bobholly39]

What evidence do you have of this exactly? Ovechkin also shot more this year than he has in years, so your claim doesn't make sense

Past 7 seasons:

Goals	Shots	S%	Shots attempted
51	386	13.2	693
53	395	13.4	724
50	398	12.6	691
33	313	10.5	582
49	355	13.8	653
51	338	15.1	628
48	311	15.4	561

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The one constant over the past 7 years - outside of one season - is goals scored. His shots go up or down, his shooting % fluctuates - but his raw goal output is remarkably consistent.

Why even ask that question, when it's this obvious?

Also - how did Ovechkin shoot more this year than in recent years?

In almost all cases, the team would have won whether the empty net goal was scored or not. It has very little impact on any end result, and very little meaning for the purposes of future projection.

Who is exaggerating? I said career high, which is true. 6 empty net goals in 68 games also; not a full season. Matthews and Pastrnak had 2 and 1 respectively, so yes, it did have quite the impact in the goal race.

We are talking raw goals. Considering Ovechkin regularly scores 4, 5 or 6 empty net goals a year - the fact that he scored 6 this year doesn't have any real impact on future projections for him. Other players scoring more or less empty net goals don't matter.

If you want to start arguing empty net goals are less important, and so 50 goals for 2 players with one having much more empty net goals, go right ahead. But that's not what you said. And 6 empty net goals this year won't affect Ovechkin's ability to score at a comparable overall goal-scoring rate next season.

You're the one choosing to use that word. He was given that time, and it had a considerable impact on Ovechkin's scoring relative to his peers. He did not earn it.

He got more PP TOI/GP this year than anybody, including himself, since 2013-2014. It's the biggest discrepancy between #1 and #2 in PP TOI/GP in the past 14 seasons.

We're talking raw goals in this thread. Ovechkin gets ice time and scores goals. It doesn't matter why he gets ice time, or if you think it's fair or not fair. Raw goals is what is being discussed.

Also - he certainly has 'earned' ice time due to the amazing career he's having, and due to his ability to score a lot of goals each year. Not that it's relevant to the discussion in anyway - all that really matters is that he gets ice time, and scores goals.

 

[abo9]

It's not just "more PP time". It's the ridiculous discrepancy. And it's not "anyone else", it's everybody else. What Ovechkin did during his prime is irrelevant when looking at this year and what is most likely to happen next year. Ovechkin is maintaining his place with the top current goal scorers in raw production because of his increasing opportunity relative to them, not because he is immune to age. The discrepancy in opportunity between him and the other top goalscorers will almost certainly shrink moving forward, meaning he is highly unlikely to be the "most likely" to reach 60+ goals next year.

Ovechkin was not a very good PP point or goal producer this year, in a league or team sense. He did not deserve that PP TOI this year.

The problem is that Ovechkin absolutely earned that PP time based on the past 14 seasons. And even if you look at recent years, he was 2nd and 3rd in PP scoring in the previous 2 seasons. Maybe next season, the Caps coaching staff will analyze the PP and see Ovechkin's results this year and reduce his PP time. Most probably not, so he'll have the same opportunity discrepancy relative to others, and could actually perform better according to past results.

Unless the others get significantly more icetime (which is unlikely for Draisatl and Matthews), this discrepancy will persist and give an unfair advantage to Ovechkin. And I'm not arguing about their respective overall impact on the ice. I'm talking about pure goal scoring, in which you have to factor his big PP time.

That said, I do see how someone can argue for Mattews, Draisatl or Pastrnak over Ovechkin. The goal scoring race is always crazy tight, it takes one fluke shot to win the Rocket, or score 60 goals.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The one constant over the past 7 years - outside of one season - is goals scored. His shots go up or down, his shooting % fluctuates - but his raw goal output is remarkably consistent.

Your claim was that as his shooting percentage decreases, he will shoot more. There is really no evidence that this is true. The opposite was true this year. You left out GP in your little chart, which would support the idea that his goal-scoring this year was inflated.

Also - how did Ovechkin shoot more this year than in recent years?

It's the highest shots/60 and shots/GP he's had since 2015-2016.

We are talking raw goals. Considering Ovechkin regularly scores 4, 5 or 6 empty net goals a year - the fact that he scored 6 this year doesn't have any real impact on future projections for him.

Ovechkin has averaged 2.6 empty net goals per season; less than half of what he scored this year in less games than his average.

Other players scoring more or less empty net goals don't matter.

It very much does when the claim is in regards to him "leading the scoring race at 34".

It doesn't matter why he gets ice time, or if you think it's fair or not fair. Raw goals is what is being discussed.

Raw goals are dependent on that ice time, among other factors, and his advantage in those things are unlikely to maintain to the same extent, at least relative to his competitors. Others who don't have those advantages, who kept similar raw output as him despite that, are much more likely to improve to 60 goals as they move into their primes and gain more advantages, than Ovechkin at age 35.

Also - he certainly has 'earned' ice time due to the amazing career he's having, and due to his ability to score a lot of goals each year.

He did not earn that amount of PP TOI this year. What he did or may have deserved years ago is irrelevant.

 

[BlackFrancis]

In almost all cases, the team would have won whether the empty net goal was scored or not. It has very little impact on any end result, and very little meaning for the purposes of future projection.

Pythag marks no difference in empty net goals and remains the only mathematically proven predictor linking goals and wins.

If you have a proof teasing out empty net goals, I'm sure someone out there would be thrilled to publish it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And even if you look at recent years, he was 2nd and 3rd in PP scoring in the previous 2 seasons.

Only because he has had good health and that much more PP time than everybody. Over the past 2 seasons, among forwards with 200+ minutes on the PP, Ovechkin is 104th in PP point production, and 19th in PP goal production. He has not earned almost 20% more PP time than everybody else in the league.

Most probably not, so he'll have the same opportunity discrepancy relative to others

The discrepancy is not just dependent on his PP TOI, which itself is unlikely to maintain, and is dependent on team PP TOI. It is also dependent on the PP TOI of his competitors.

Unless the others get significantly more icetime (which is unlikely for Draisatl and Matthews)

Matthews is almost guaranteed to get more ice time going forward, especially on the PP. I don't know what Boston's plans are, but Pastrnak has much more room for increased opportunity than Ovechkin. Draisaitl is not as good of a goal scorer, but he will get significant minutes, with the potential to play with McDavid for a lot of that time. These 3 will be in their primes, while Ovechkin will be 35.

 

[BruinsBtn]

There's a 0% chance next season will be 82 games, so no one.

 

[abo9]

Over the past 2 seasons, among forwards with 200+ minutes on the PP, Ovechkin is 104th in PP point production, and 19th in PP goal production. He has not earned almost 20% more PP time than everybody else in the league.

I'm looking at the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, and talking about goals only. Using the 19-20 season doesnt make sense. He "deserved" his PP time based on previous performances. Not future ones.

The discrepancy is not just dependent on his PP TOI, which itself is unlikely to maintain, and is dependent on team PP TOI. It is also dependent on the PP TOI of his competitors.

Matthews is almost guaranteed to get more ice time going forward, especially on the PP. I don't know what Boston's plans are, but Pastrnak has much more room for increased opportunity than Ovechkin. Draisaitl is not as good of a goal scorer, but he will get significant minutes, with the potential to play with McDavid for a lot of that time. These 3 will be in their primes, while Ovechkin will be 35.

Looking again back at the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, Ovechkin was still playing on about 87-90% of his team's PP time. Matthews is like the 13th most used forward in the league in terms of TOI. Draisatl is 1st, so in theory he could increase his TOI but it will most likely goes down. Pastrnak is the one that I find most underutilised on this list.

Again, lots of reasons to favor the younger players over Ovechkin, but to suggest that Ovechkin's PP usage is undeserved is not a good reason imo...

I'll agree to disagree with you, I don't think either of us will change our point of view It was a pleasure!

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm looking at the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, and talking about goals only. Using the 19-20 season doesnt make sense.

His performance should have been evaluated in real time this season, and he was not doing well, which means he didn't deserve the ice time. Looking at 17/18-18/19 moves him up to 11th in PP goal production; still not worthy of 20% more PP time than everybody else in the league.

Looking again back at the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons, Ovechkin was still playing on about 87-90% of his team's PP time.

Yet got less PP TOI/GP; supporting that the discrepancy is unlikely to continue, for any of multiple reasons.

Matthews is like the 13th most used forward in the league in terms of TOI. Draisatl is 1st, so in theory he could increase his TOI but it will most likely goes down. Pastrnak is the one that I find most underutilised on this list.

You think ice time is going to decrease as players move into their primes? In terms of PP TOI among forwards (100+ min) this year:

Player - PP TOI/GP rank (PP goal production rank)

Ovechkin - 1st (50th)
Draisaitl - 8th (8th)
Pastrnak - 12th (2nd)
Matthews - 44th (12th)

 

[abo9]

His performance should have been evaluated in real time this season, and he was not doing well, which means he didn't deserve the ice time. Looking at 17/18-18/19 moves him up to 11th in PP goal production; still not worthy of 20% more PP time than everybody else in the league.

Yet got less PP TOI/GP; supporting that the discrepancy is unlikely to continue, for any of multiple reasons.

You think ice time is going to decrease as players move into their primes? In terms of PP TOI among forwards (100+ min) this year:

Player - PP TOI/GP rank (PP goal production rank)

Ovechkin - 1st (50th)
Draisaitl - 8th (8th)
Pastrnak - 12th (2nd)
Matthews - 44th (12th)

How do you get those PP goal totals? He ranks 2nd with 35 PPG over those two seasons. And lead the league in PP goals in the 5 seasons before. Idk, I agree that if you have a comparable player on your team, you evaluate things as the season goes and switch things around. But you're talking about putting Ovechkin aside in favor of who? Jakub Vrana? Carl Hagelin?

NHL.com Stats

If anything, this past season was an outlier for Ovechkin in terms of PP goals scored, but we've seen him rebound in the past (cough cough 33 goals in 2016).

And his TOI/game, PP usage, have not changed significantly. He;s not been magically bumbed, that's how Washington uses him and they've been a contender for a long time. If the results were not there, they would change the methods.

 

[34]

Since Matthews entered the NHL, the ONLY player to score more goals than him is OV.

No one else. Matthews is the best young raw goal scorer in the game today. He will re-write the record books.

I have seen him play live many times here in Toronto, and he is electric to watch. Generational goal scorer.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Once again, he did not earn that ice time. Not in a league sense or internal team sense. That discrepancy is also unlikely to continue moving forward.

The Caps have had the best powerplay in the NHL since 2008 by a pretty good margin, with Ovie as the centerpiece:

NHL.com Stats

Only he and Backstrom have been there the whole time. The other players have all been displaced multiple times over. Clearly something is being done better in Washington than everywhere else. It's pretty obvious what that something is: Ovie's shot.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How do you get those PP goal totals?

That's his PP Goals/60 this year among forwards with 100+ minutes.

He ranks 2nd with 35 PPG over those two seasons. And lead the league in PP goals in the 5 seasons before.

Yes, because he's been healthy and because he's consistently had among the most PP TOI/GP in the league. However, this year he had an abnormal amount relative to the league, even for him, despite him not playing well. It's the 3rd highest % of a team's PP time in the entire cap era, for the team with the 4th most PP TOI in the league. It's more likely that his competitors see increased or maintained ability and/or opportunity compared to this year, and it's more likely that Ovechkin sees decreased ability and/or opportunity compared to this year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Caps have had the best powerplay in the NHL since 2008 by a pretty good margin, with Ovie as the centerpiece:

Nobody is disputing that Ovechkin has been a great goal scorer on the PP over that time frame, or that Washington has had talented players. But it's no longer 2008, and he's no longer that level of goal scorer on the PP. And his opportunity and ability has much less room to grow and is more likely to decrease relative to his competitors who kept pace with him, making him less likely to reach 60 goals in 2020-2021 than those players.

 

[Regal]

His performance should have been evaluated in real time this season, and he was not doing well, which means he didn't deserve the ice time. Looking at 17/18-18/19 moves him up to 11th in PP goal production; still not worthy of 20% more PP time than everybody else in the league.

Yet got less PP TOI/GP; supporting that the discrepancy is unlikely to continue, for any of multiple reasons.

You think ice time is going to decrease as players move into their primes? In terms of PP TOI among forwards (100+ min) this year:

Player - PP TOI/GP rank (PP goal production rank)

Ovechkin - 1st (50th)
Draisaitl - 8th (8th)
Pastrnak - 12th (2nd)
Matthews - 44th (12th)

This doesn't make sense. Ice time isn't based on where a player's scoring rates are relative to the league, it's based on how they fit into their team's PP scheme. Ovechkin scored at a similar rate to Oshie and Wilson this year but a significantly higher rate than anyone else on the team. It's not as if there's player that is going to improve the PP by cutting into Ovechkin's time. This also ignores the fact that Ovechkin's presence alone on the left side opens up tons of space for the rest of the team, even if he's not scoring those goals himself. You can argue that other players would be more successful with that same time or should be given that much time on their own teams, but the fact that they get fewer minutes doesn't mean Ovechkin should as well.

I agree with your general point that he has less room to grow, but I doubt his time is cut anytime soon relative to the team (though team PP time is obviously varied and out of his control)

 

[abo9]

That's his PP Goals/60 this year among forwards with 100+ minutes.

Ohhhh but we're talking raw totals. I don't care who scores the most PPgoals/60. Actually, I don't care who scores the most PP goals because the Rocket (or 60 goals mark) is not entirely dependant on PP. These could certainly be indicator if you change Ovy's role/usage, but that's not gonna happen next year.

Yes, because he's been healthy and because he's consistently had among the most PP TOI/GP in the league.

Now what? Yeah, he's been healthy, played consistently high minutes and consistently scored high amounts of goals. That actually supports the fact that he might continue to have success longer than most.

However, this year he had an abnormal amount relative to the league, even for him, despite him not playing well. It's the 3rd highest % of a team's PP time in the entire cap era, for the team with the 4th most PP TOI in the league. It's more likely that his competitors see increased or maintained ability and/or opportunity compared to this year, and it's more likely that Ovechkin sees decreased ability and/or opportunity compared to this year.

I just don't align with your thinking. You think that one bad season means more than the 7 seasons prior when he was leading. You think that he's gonna get less PP time in Washington... because he had one "down" season? And once again, who will you put in his place on the PP? The coach that puts Vrana on the PP to replace Ovy will be fired.

And once again, his "down" season still sees him lead the league in goals (raw) and even strenght goals.

I think the only thing I agree with you is that Matthews, Pastrnak might see an increasse in responsibilities in the future. They might or might not score more goals, but if I had to bet on the Rocket Richard winner next year, I put my money on Ovechkin, as I did at the start of the year when Draisatl, Pastrnak, Matthews had supposedly better chance. I take the guy who has a recent history of winning the trophy.

 

[filinski77]

Since Matthews entered the NHL, the ONLY player to score more goals than him is OV.

No one else. Matthews is the best young raw goal scorer in the game today. He will re-write the record books.

I have seen him play live many times here in Toronto, and he is electric to watch. Generational goal scorer.

The delusion is hilarious. Yes, he is easily one of the best goalscorers in the league, but NO, he has not done anything to indicate he is a generational goal scorer, or that he will re-write record books LOL.

Top-10 Goal finishes for his first 4 seasons: 2/-/-/3
Top-10 Goal/gp finishes for his first 4 seasons: 5/2/7/4

Goal Leaders since he came in the league:
Ovechkin - 181
Matthews - 158
Pastrnak - 155
Kucherov - 153
Draisaitl - 147

Goal/GP leaders since he came in the league:
Ovechkin - 0.58
Matthews - 0.56
Pastrnak - 0.53
Kucherov - 0. 50
McDavid - 0.48

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at Ovechkin's first 4 seasons (before he was really considered a generational goal scorer:

Top-10 Goal finishes for his first 4 seasons: 3/4/1/1
Top-10 Goal/gp finishes for his first 4 seasons: 5/5/1/1

Goal leaders:
Ovechkin - 219
Kovalchuk - 189
Heatley - 180
Iginla - 159
Lecavalier - 156

Goal/GP leaders:
Ovechkin - 0.68
Kovalchuk - 0.59
Gaborik - 0.59
Heatley - 0.57

---------------------------------------------------------------

Matthews has not separated himself from a post-30 year old Ovechkin. Let alone has he really separated himself from Pastrnak, nor Kucherov/Drasaitl etc if you look at actual results.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This doesn't make sense.Ice time isn't based on where a player's scoring rates are relative to the league, it's based on how they fit into their team's PP scheme.

He was 6th on his team (100+ min) in PP P/60, 3rd in PP G/60, 5th in PP on-ice GF/60, and 4th in PP on-ice xGF/60 this year. Yet he had 22% more PP time than anybody else on his team.

I agree with your general point that he has less room to grow, but I doubt his time is cut anytime soon relative to the team (though team PP time is obviously varied and out of his control)

It's the 3rd highest percentage of team time in the cap era. And as you already acknowledged, team PP time is out of his control, even if he keeps the same percentage. His ice time relative to his direct competitors is also not in his control, because that's dependent on their PP TOI as well. His opportunity gap shrinking is inevitable, which makes him not the "most likely to reach 60 next year", especially when combined with the fact that he's going to be 35.

Ohhhh but we're talking raw totals. I don't care who scores the most PPgoals/60.

If you use raw PP goals in that spot, that's essentially creating a feedback loop. Essentially saying Ovechkin should get more PP time because he gets more PP goals because he gets more PP time, etc. And it still doesn't even make him look good relative to the others.

Player - PP TOI/GP rank (raw PP goals rank)

Ovechkin - 1st (5th)
Draisaitl - 8th (2nd)
Pastrnak - 12th (1st)
Matthews - 44th (6th)

These could certainly be indicator if you change Ovy's role/usage, but that's not gonna happen next year.

His usage relative to his direct competitors that are matching him in raw totals now will change.

Yeah, he's been healthy, played consistently high minutes and consistently scored high amounts of goals. That actually supports the fact that he might continue to have success longer than most.

It doesn't support the suggestion that he will suddenly increase his totals beyond his already inflated pace this year, at age 35, or that that is more likely than the players who are matching him without those opportunities being more likely to reach it as they enter their primes and get those opportunities.

You think that one bad season means more than the 7 seasons prior when he was leading.

I did not say that and it's not "one bad season", and a down season also means a bit more when you're 34.

 

[34]

The delusion is hilarious. Yes, he is easily one of the best goalscorers in the league, but NO, he has not done anything to indicate he is a generational goal scorer, or that he will re-write record books LOL.

Top-10 Goal finishes for his first 4 seasons: 2/-/-/3
Top-10 Goal/gp finishes for his first 4 seasons: 5/2/7/4

Goal Leaders since he came in the league:
Ovechkin - 181
Matthews - 158
Pastrnak - 155
Kucherov - 153
Draisaitl - 147

Goal/GP leaders since he came in the league:
Ovechkin - 0.58
Matthews - 0.56
Pastrnak - 0.53
Kucherov - 0. 50
McDavid - 0.48

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at Ovechkin's first 4 seasons (before he was really considered a generational goal scorer:

Top-10 Goal finishes for his first 4 seasons: 3/4/1/1
Top-10 Goal/gp finishes for his first 4 seasons: 5/5/1/1

Goal leaders:
Ovechkin - 219
Kovalchuk - 189
Heatley - 180
Iginla - 159
Lecavalier - 156

Goal/GP leaders:
Ovechkin - 0.68
Kovalchuk - 0.59
Gaborik - 0.59
Heatley - 0.57

---------------------------------------------------------------

Matthews has not separated himself from a post-30 year old Ovechkin. Let alone has he really separated himself from Pastrnak, nor Kucherov/Drasaitl etc if you look at actual results.

Matthews is 22! A 22 yo kid!

Man, you are going to be disappointed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

he has not done anything to indicate he is a generational goal scorer

Through the first 4 years of their careers:
(Ovechkin adjusted to Matthews era)

ES Goals/60

Ovechkin: 1.66
Matthews: 1.59

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 3.03
Ovechkin: 2.67

This represents Ovechkin's D+1-5 years and Matthews' D+0-4 years (Matthews is a year younger).

Goal Leaders since he came in the league:
Ovechkin - 181
Matthews - 158
Pastrnak - 155
Kucherov - 153
Draisaitl - 147

Which means he's 2nd only to a generational goal scorer, so not sure your point. And then we add in:

PP TOI:

Ovechkin - 1340:05
Kucherov - 1076:48
Draisaitl - 1006:44
Pastrnak - 935:40
Matthews - 732:55

ES TOI:

Draisaitl - 5236:20
Ovechkin - 4911:03
Kucherov - 4861:18
Matthews - 4558:49
Pastrnak - 4445:40

Empty Net Goals:

Ovechkin - 13
Kucherov - 8
Draisaitl - 7
Pastrnak - 6
Matthews - 3

Looking at Ovechkin's first 4 seasons (before he was really considered a generational goal scorer:

Ovechkin was most definitely considered generational by the 2009 offseason.

 

[34]

Through the first 4 years of their careers:
(Ovechkin adjusted to Matthews era)

ES Goals/60

Ovechkin: 1.66
Matthews: 1.59

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 3.03
Ovechkin: 2.67

This represents Ovechkin's D+1-5 years and Matthews' D+0-4 years (Matthews is a year younger).

Which means he's 2nd only to a generational goal scorer, so not sure your point. And then we add in:

PP TOI:

Ovechkin - 1340:05
Kucherov - 1076:48
Draisaitl - 1006:44
Pastrnak - 935:40
Matthews - 732:55

ES TOI:

Draisaitl - 5236:20
Ovechkin - 4911:03
Kucherov - 4861:18
Matthews - 4558:49
Pastrnak - 4445:40

Ovechkin was most definitely considered generational by the 2009 offseason.

Exactly!!! The #’s speak the truth.

 

[Regal]

He was 6th on his team (100+ min) in PP P/60, 3rd in PP G/60, 5th in PP on-ice GF/60, and 4th in PP on-ice xGF/60 this year. Yet he had 22% more PP time than anybody else on his team.

I was just referring to goals, and the difference between him and Oshie and Wilson is too small to be relevant (the difference between 2.4x and 2.3x is largely meaningless as it's within general variance, and that's with Wilson shooting over 30%). The PP is designed with Ovechkin as the shooter/decoy, so he doesn't get many PP assists. And given he stays out while the rest of the first unit changes means his on-ice numbers are most likely going to be lower than theirs as he's then wasting time on what's likely to be a regroup and reenter of the zone and then playing with worse players. I don't think any of that changes whether it makes sense to keep him out there, as the other roles are easier to replace. Not that it really matters for the point of the thread, but I think there's far more things to consider than just per 60 numbers for how much time he should get.

 

[danpantz]

There's a 0% chance next season will be 82 games, so no one.

This is the correct answer

 

[filinski77]

Exactly!!! The #’s speak the truth.

The numbers speak no truths at all considering there are no record books for him to re-write that talk about /60 stats (since nobody except for a few leafs fans give a damn about those), and also since to be generational, winning a rocket or 2 might help before those claims are thrown out.

I've honestly never seen so many excuses for a player that hasn't actually accomplished the things needed to deserve the kind of praise that he is receiving from some Leaf fans lol (mind you, most Leaf fans are reasonable, don't get me wrong. Just not you or dekes)