Which player could pull a Boyd Deveraux and mess up the Leafs draft position?

[Mad Brills*]

Getting gerber is what cost the leaf OEL/duchene.

 

[ACC1224]

Getting gerber is what cost the leaf OEL/duchene.

How?

Why is it that wins earned in the last few games of the season seem to have more value than any wins earned early in the season?

 

[Finnish your Czech]

How?

Why is it that wins earned in the last few games of the season seem to have more value than any wins earned early in the season?

Because if they didn't get Gerber (which they didnt have to) they wouldn't have won as many games

 

[ACC1224]

Because if they didn't get Gerber (which they didnt have to) they wouldn't have won as many games

How many games did they win because of Gerber?
How did they manage to win any other games that year without him?

 

[Finnish your Czech]

How many games did they win because of Gerber?
How did they manage to win any other games that year without him?

They didn't win that many games, but without Gerber they would have gone down to at least 5 in the draft because they would have been playing with Joseph-Pogge in net as Toskala was shut down for the season.

 

[ACC1224]

They didn't win that many games, but without Gerber they would have gone down to at least 5 in the draft because they would have been playing with Joseph-Pogge in net as Toskala was shut down for the season.

Sure you can assume not sure why you would. His stats weren't so phenomenal that they couldn't have been duplicated.

Would they not have finished at 5 or lower if they didn't win as many games early in the year?

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Sure you can assume not sure why you would. His stats weren't so phenomenal that they couldn't have been duplicated.

Would they not have finished at 5 or lower if they didn't win as many games early in the year?

You're saying that I am "assuming" a 0.909 save percentage Martin Gerber would have won more games than a 0.869 Curtis Joseph and a 0.844 Justin Pogge? Seriously?

08-09 final standings:

Literally one win would have put the Leafs into 5th, and 3 wins would have put the Leafs into 4th (Gerber won 6 games).

In hindsight Kadri wasn't a bad pick compared to Schenn/Kane, but in general the difference between a 7 and a 4/5 is pretty good. Plus, maybe Burke would have drafted OEL in the 4th/5th spot

And I don't understand how the second part of your post is relevant in any way to what I posted.

 

[nuck]

Marincin is the anti-Devereaux. I see him stealing at least one or two more defeats from the jaws of victory. It takes an ex Oiler to beat the curse of the ex Oiler.

 

[ACC1224]

You're saying that I am "assuming" a 0.909 save percentage Martin Gerber would have won more games than a 0.869 Curtis Joseph and a 0.844 Justin Pogge? Seriously?

08-09 final standings:

Literally one win would have put the Leafs into 5th, and 3 wins would have put the Leafs into 4th (Gerber won 6 games).

In hindsight Kadri wasn't a bad pick compared to Schenn/Kane, but in general the difference between a 7 and a 4/5 is pretty good. Plus, maybe Burke would have drafted OEL in the 4th/5th spot

And I don't understand how the second part of your post is relevant in any way to what I posted.

Did the Leafs win 6 games or did Gerber?

.909 isn't that great, would hardly be a reach for another Goalie to duplicate it.

Of course it's relevant, every game is worth 2 points regardless of the time of the season.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Did the Leafs win 6 games or did Gerber?

.909 isn't that great, would hardly be a reach for another Goalie to duplicate it.

Of course it's relevant, every game is worth 2 points regardless of the time of the season.

What are you talking about?

There are two scenarios that could have happened:

Scenario A: Leafs pick up Gerber on waivers at the TDL

Scenario B: Leafs don't pick up Gerber at the TDL

Scenario A causes leafs to get the 7th pick

Scenario B causes the leafs to get the 4th/5th pick

The only difference between the two is Martin Gerber

Gerber was acquired at the TDL so I don't know why games before the deadline are relevant

 

[rojac]

Nobody has any idea what might have happened if the Leafs had not acquired Gerber. You can make all the guesses you want -- and that's all they are is guesses -- but you don't know.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Nobody has any idea what might have happened if the Leafs had not acquired Gerber. You can make all the guesses you want -- and that's all they are is guesses -- but you don't know.

They're educated guesses, and with the amount of context given in the situation, they're very educated.

 

[Gallagbi]

Did the Leafs win 6 games or did Gerber?

.909 isn't that great, would hardly be a reach for another Goalie to duplicate it.

Of course it's relevant, every game is worth 2 points regardless of the time of the season.

Gerber was so good he couldn't get an NHL contract the following year.

The Leafs were taking Schenn if they picked 4/5, no doubt in my mind.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Awesome thread.

But think how bad it would have felt had Burke passed on OEL for B.Schenn at 5

Even if they were picking at 5th overall I think Burke was taking Brayden Schenn. Besides TSN showing the footage of him after the Kings selected him and Pierre McGuire saying Burke really wanted him, that was the same draft where the Leafs only selected Canadian and American players.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You're saying that I am "assuming" a 0.909 save percentage Martin Gerber would have won more games than a 0.869 Curtis Joseph and a 0.844 Justin Pogge? Seriously?

08-09 final standings:

Literally one win would have put the Leafs into 5th, and 3 wins would have put the Leafs into 4th (Gerber won 6 games).

In hindsight Kadri wasn't a bad pick compared to Schenn/Kane, but in general the difference between a 7 and a 4/5 is pretty good. Plus, maybe Burke would have drafted OEL in the 4th/5th spot

And I don't understand how the second part of your post is relevant in any way to what I posted.

Maybe you can say Gerber was the difference in the Leafs 80th game that season against New Jersey. Toronto had defeated them 4-1 and Gerber made 47 saves on 48 shots.

 

[rojac]

They're educated guesses, and with the amount of context given in the situation, they're very educated.

Given that as far as I know, scientists have no idea how changing a minor variable affects how time will play out, I'm not sure you can call them educated guesses.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Given that as far as I know, scientists have no idea how changing a minor variable affects how time will play out, I'm not sure you can call them educated guesses.

Why not? An educated guess is an attempt at explaining something you don't know 100% sure, but you have some sort of logical knowledge or context that makes your guess more likely to be right then choosing something random

Like if I said "if the leafs didn't claim Gerber, Justin Pogge would have gotten 20 straight shutouts and the leafs would have made the playoffs", that would be random and not an educated guess, but to predict that what was happening previously would continue to occur is logical

I'm not even saying that the leafs shouldn't have claimed gerber, but I'm saying that if they didn't, they likely would have had a lower pick

That doesn't mean it's 100% would have happened, but it means it's logical to believe it would happen

 

[MLG Ghost]

Given that as far as I know, scientists have no idea how changing a minor variable affects how time will play out, I'm not sure you can call them educated guesses.

What matters is that Burke made a big mistake that year. We were clearly out, and what we needed was to be in the best possible position to claim the highest draft pick possible. By picking up Martin Gerber that spring, Burke did the exact opposite of what he should have done. Instead of going for the highest pick, he went for the most points possible. Atleast his pride was in tact.

It doesn't matter how things worked out with Kadri, the management's thinking that year was flawed.

 

[LeafsNation75]

What matters is that Burke made a big mistake that year. We were clearly out, and what we needed was to be in the best possible position to claim the highest draft pick possible. By picking up Martin Gerber that spring, Burke did the exact opposite of what he should have done. Instead of going for the highest pick, he went for the most points possible. Atleast his pride was in tact.

It doesn't matter how things worked out with Kadri, the management's thinking that year was flawed.

What everyone seems to forget is that Brian Burke and the management team at the time cost themselves a chance at the 1st overall pick and John Tavares. If Toronto had lost that last game against Ottawa it would have put them in position for at worst the 5th overall pick, with a chance at the 1st overall pick if they won the draft lottery since at that time. Remember that only the bottom 5 teams in the standings had a chance to get it based on the rule that you could only move up four spots in the draft. I bring that up since Brian Burke famously said they wanted to select John Tavares, which they could have if they never claim Martin Gerber.

 

[Mad Brills*]

What everyone seems to forget is that Brian Burke and the management team at the time cost themselves a chance at the 1st overall pick and John Tavares. If Toronto had lost that last game against Ottawa it would have put them in position for at worst the 5th overall pick, with a chance at the 1st overall pick if they won the draft lottery since at that time. Remember that only the bottom 5 teams in the standings had a chance to get it based on the rule that you could only move up four spots in the draft. I bring that up since Brian Burke famously said they wanted to select John Tavares, which they could have if they never claim Martin Gerber.

Didn't they turn down schenn + the pick that was kadri for tavares?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Didn't they turn down schenn + the pick that was kadri for tavares?

Burke said he could have done that trade for the 2nd overall pick.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Burke was never going to acquire Tavares in a trade. He kept bragging that whole spring about how he was such a genius at the draft day with acquiring Pronger and the Sedins in the past that he lost any chance of finding a way to pry Tavares even if he wanted to.

 

[MLG Ghost]

Burke was never going to acquire Tavares in a trade. He kept bragging that whole spring about how he was such a genius at the draft day with acquiring Pronger and the Sedins in the past that he lost any chance of finding a way to pry Tavares even if he wanted to.

Sadly, Burke will be remembered for little more than big talk during his time in Toronto.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Sadly, Burke will be remembered for little more than big talk during his time in Toronto.

The ironic thing is right after they selected Kadri and he was with him being interviewed by James Duthie, Burke said he did not have that big of an ego to be on the draft stage selecting that early with the 2nd overall pick.

 

[ACC1224]

Gerber was so good he couldn't get an NHL contract the following year.

The Leafs were taking Schenn if they picked 4/5, no doubt in my mind.

Honestly the whole premise is bizarre. How a washed up Goalie and a plug winger could alter the fortunes of a Team so dramatically is certainly one of life's great mysteries.

Didn't they turn down schenn + the pick that was kadri for tavares?

Never happened. NYI were never trading that pick.