Which group of defenceman will be better?

[Rowlet]

Hughes was sheltered by Edler. Makar was playing top pairing minutes and matchups on an injury decimated team. There's good reason Makar will easily win the Calder.

So far, both people I've seen publicize their votes, Gord Miller and Elliotte Freidman, have both said they voted for Hughes.

And Hughes only played with Edler on the PP... not sure why he'd need to be sheltered from opposing penalty killers...

Hughes played more with Tyler Myers than he did Edler, also I think Troy Stetcher more too.

 

[82Ninety42011]

Hughes was sheltered by Edler. Makar was playing top pairing minutes and matchups on an injury decimated team. There's good reason Makar will easily win the Calder.

Really you even watch canucks games? Hughes played with Tanev and if any time spent with Edler was on PP only. They both play the left side.

 

[TSN Jdog]

So far, both people I've seen publicize their votes, Gord Miller and Elliotte Freidman, have both said they voted for Hughes.

And Hughes only played with Edler on the PP... not sure why he'd need to be sheltered from opposing penalty killers...

Hughes played more with Tyler Myers than he did Edler, also I think Troy Stetcher more too.

Sheltered meaning Edler ate the top pairing minutes with higher quality of competition. Hughes was 2nd pairing. Look into it.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Sheltered meaning Edler ate the top pairing minutes with higher quality of competition. Hughes was 2nd pairing. Look into it.

Sometimes I think this kind of stuff gets overblown in a game that is free-flowing the majority on the time.

 

[bobholly39]

I honestly don't know how the bottom guys have any votes. Even if they all reach their potential it would be at best a push.

can any of the young D peak as high as Karlsson did? possibly but I doubt it.

Disagree strongly here. There was a similar poll done about forwards that is much more lopsided. I think for the D it's much more reasonable.

None of the D listed here are great in an all-time sense. You can probably argue a couple of them as top 100 players all-time, but they're fringe top 100 players, lower end.

Dahlin's ceiling is sky-high, higher than what Karlsson or any of the others did. I think him ending up the best of the 8 players here isn't unrealistic, and at the very least he should be able to come close to any of the 4 older ones.
Makar/Hughes also have sky high ceilings, if a bit less. More than just ceiling - based on year 1, I think the odds of them reaching high is quite likely. Heisk started out great too, and should continue to have a strong career.

One issue with the older group is that they aren't ageing well at all, surprisingly so.

Keith is 36 now - but he's been trending down for a few years already. Defensemen like him will often age pretty well, sometimes even into their lates 30s (Bourque, Lidstrom, Chara, MacInnis) but it doesn't seem to be the case for him.

Both Doughty and Karlsson were fantastic in their 20s (both behind Makar/Hughes/Heisk/Dahlin as rookies though) but seemed to have hit a bit of a wall after age 28. I'm personally of the opinion they can both rebound still and go back to being top 2 in league, but they haven't yet and maybe i'm wrong. So - the jury is still very much out to see how well they age, and if they don't age well the door's wide open for the young ones to overtake them.

Hedman - he was a bit more of a late bloomer. Not that different than Lidstrom tbh, strong early on but just got stronger. We'll see how things shape out for him in his 30s, but i'd have him last in the first group for now.

Considering the 4 young ones seem like some of the most surefire young NHL stars to reach their potential to me - I think they're all projecting to have tremendous careers (3/4 at least, if one falls back). I think this ends up being really close.

I voted for the older ones - simply because they've already reached their potentials and it's pretty great - but I think this is very close in the end.

 

[majormajor]

I voted for the older ones - simply because they've already reached their potentials and it's pretty great - but I think this is very close in the end.

Are people forgetting here that these young guys are already great? Dahlin is still a work in progress, but if Karlsson, Keith, or Doughty had a year like Makar, Hughes, or Heiskanen just had we'd be talking about it as a bounceback campaign (yes they were all better than Karlsson last year). The older guys besides Hedman are obviously past their primes but given that the younger guys are better than they were at the same age, and in my opinion at least have better raw tools, it seems there is a better than 50% chance they'll have better careers overall. We're not talking about draft prospects here, these are #1D-men in the NHL already, we know how they play in their jobs, projections are not total guesswork.

 

[flying v 604]

Yet another shot at Hughes, I presume?

Dude has a major hard on for Quinn, no matter how much the eye test or numbers prove how wrong his statement is.

 

[Regal]

I completely disagree. The upside of the new generation is higher. Their raw skills are better, especially the skating. We don't know if they'll get there but they're well ahead of the pace. How good were Hedman, Karlsson, Doughty, and Keith when they were 20? Doughty was great but the other three were miles away from being their best. Keith was in Norfolk, Hedman was a solid but boring second pair type, Karlsson was a risky player without much to show for it.

Dahlin at his best might be able to do everything Hedman does as well as being a much better generator of offense. His edgework and deception from the line are ridiculous for a big man.

Makar has 100 pt upside.

It's hard to compare Hughes with anyone but he's already a #1D at 20.

At 20 Heiskanen is also a #1D and is already as good defensively as any of the older group of 4 have ever been.

Keith and Karlsson and two of the best skating defensemen in recent years, and Doughty and Hedman are both very good. I really don't see a significant enough skating edge to make a huge difference in potential.

I think you're underrating where these guys were at at a young age. Karlsson was the youngest Norris winner since Orr and finished well ahead of 2nd in defensemen scoring at 21, which is Makar's current age. He scored at a better pace in a lower scoring league. And while Makar might have 100 point potential in the current league scoring, that's roughly 5th place these days, which Karlsson actually did, finishing 4th in a lower scoring league.

At 20, Doughty finished 3rd in Norris voting and 3rd in defenseman scoring. Heiskanen is arguably a #1 defenseman now at 20, but he's not as good as Doughty was. He's good defensively and his point totals are solid despite not getting consistent #1 PP time, but I don't see the dynamic transition play that Doughty had at his best. I also think calling him better defensively than the others at their best is crazy. I would take all of Doughty, Keith and Hedman. There's nothing in his underlying numbers that suggest he's that good.

Dahlin does have the skillset where he probably has a higger potential than what any of the 4 reached, but so far, he hasn't been very good defensively, and didn't take much of a step forward in his 2nd year. You're underrating early Hedman who was much better defensively and was just as good offensively at ES. He wasn't good on the PP, but he was a top pairing defenseman by his 2nd season.

Keith did take a longer time to break out, but considering we're talking about a 2 time Norris and Conn Smythe winner, I don't think it matters as he obviously had an unusual trajectory. Hughes is a very good offensive defenseman, but he actually seems to create more in transition at 5v5 than in the zone to the point where I question his 5v5 scoring upside compared to Keith, and I don't think he'll every have the in-zone defense to be a true workhorse Norris type defenseman like Keith.

Honestly, I just don't see Hughes or Heiskanen ever being Norris winners, and while Dahlin and Makar could hit a higher peak than the other 4, the likelihood of having a significantly better career to make up for the other two is slim. We're talking about the top 4 defensemen of the last decade winners, winners of 6 of the last 4 Norrises, and likely 4 Hall of Famers. Only Hedman is really a question mark and given he's still on top of his game, he likely gets there too. All 4 of them have been top 10 players at various points and arguably top 5 in some of their top playoff runs. After the Sens run in '17, there were people arguing Karlsson was the best in the league. The HOH forum ranked Keith 24th among defensemen all time last year, and I can't imagine Karlsson and Doughty would be far behind. Is the potential for the new 4 being top 20ish defensemen? I doubt it. Maybe if we take their max potential and assume consistency and health, but that's just not realistic.

 

[bobholly39]

Are people forgetting here that these young guys are already great? Dahlin is still a work in progress, but if Karlsson, Keith, or Doughty had a year like Makar, Hughes, or Heiskanen just had we'd be talking about it as a bounceback campaign (yes they were all better than Karlsson last year). The older guys besides Hedman are obviously past their primes but given that the younger guys are better than they were at the same age, and in my opinion at least have better raw tools, it seems there is a better than 50% chance they'll have better careers overall. We're not talking about draft prospects here, these are #1D-men in the NHL already, we know how they play in their jobs, projections are not total guesswork.

I'd stop short of saying "over 50%" chance. The poll isn't asking what's more likely - just what you think happens, which is why i think voting for the young ones is perfectly defensible. But saying over 50% means you think it's more likely, and i wouldn't go that far. One injury is enough to derail that, or even 1 of the 4 struggling and not materializing as greatly as we expect them to. Keith and Doughty both have great playoffs pedigree too - and odds are at least 1 or 2 of the young ones get a chance to play for cup a few times, but no guarantee.

But yes all 4 always projected to be great - and have already established themselves as great as of today, so we're not talking about some prospect with future potential with a ton of risk. And if you think Dahlin is the one still 'the work in progress' - that bodes well, because to me he's the most surefire of the bunch, so no issue there.

I think this will could end up close.

 

[The Macho King]

The Vets are already all have HHOF-level resumes.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

can any of the young D peak as high as Karlsson did? possibly but I doubt it.

I think Dahlin's ceiling is clearly higher.

Makar's is similar to Karlsson.

 

[Merrrlin]

Lol this is obviously the older group.

I’d love to hear the reasoning for the young group.

We really do go overboard with potential around here.

Dahlia and Heiskanen are the only two I could see living up to the older group as they Can play both offence and defence.

Hughes and Makar have a long way to go to having a career like Karlsson did, despite being on much more skilled teams than Erik ever had.

I think we forget just how good Erik was. He completely controlled 30 mins of every game for about a 5 year period. Watch his playoff run from a few years ago. Absurd.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Lol this is obviously the older group.

I’d love to hear the reasoning for the young group.

We really do go overboard with potential around here.

Dahlia and Heiskanen are the only two I could see living up to the older group as they Can play both offence and defence.

Hughes and Makar have a long way to go to having a career like Karlsson did, despite being on much more skilled teams than Erik ever had.

I think we forget just how good Erik was. He completely controlled 30 mins of every game for about a 5 year period. Watch his playoff run from a few years ago. Absurd.

I made a similar poll with the forwards, just looking at how people view some of the young talent in the league compared to the old guard.

I took the veteran forwards, but in this one, I went with the young defenceman. The young group will need to continue to develop and improve to get there, but I think they have a good chance.

For the most part the younger defenceman have established themselves quicker in the league than the vets did. Outside of Doughty, who was a dominant force by his second season in the league. Karlsson also developed rather quickly. He was a superstar by his 3rd year in the league. Hedman and Keith took longer to become elite players. It probably wasn’t until Hedman’s 5th season and 4th season for Keith.

Outside of EK, I’d say the younger group of defenders are much better skaters and have a more creative offensive approach to the game. They all have work to do on the defensive side, but that’s not uncommon for young defenceman.

It’s always tough to take the younger group, because there’s more risk, but less so when they’ve already proven to be really good players in the league. It just comes down to how much better can they become.

 

[Merrrlin]

I made a similar poll with the forwards, just looking at how people view some of the young talent in the league compared to the old guard.

I took the veteran forwards, but in this one, I went with the young defenceman. The young group will need to continue to develop and improve to get there, but I think they have a good chance.

For the most part the younger defenceman have established themselves quicker in the league than the vets did. Outside of Doughty, who was a dominant force by his second season in the league. Karlsson also developed rather quickly. He was a superstar by his 3rd year in the league. Hedman and Keith took longer to become elite players. It probably wasn’t until Hedman’s 5th season and 4th season for Keith.

Outside of EK, I’d say the younger group of defenders are much better skaters and have a more creative offensive approach to the game. They all have work to do on the defensive side, but that’s not uncommon for young defenceman.

It’s always tough to take the younger group, because there’s more risk, but less so when they’ve already proven to be really good
players in the league. It just comes down to how much better can they become.

To honest, my question wasn’t aimed at you. I am already very aware of of how highly you think of Makar. If I had to guess, this is the 5th or 6th poll you’ve made with him as an option this month.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

To honest, my question wasn’t aimed at you. I am already very aware of of how highly you think of Makar. If I had to guess, this is the 5th or 6th poll you’ve made with him as an option this month.

Lol, more so born out of no sports boredom than me trying to pump his tires. I like having polls involving young players in the league because their future is less known than the older players. It makes it more interesting to talk about, for me at least.

Dahlin is the highest upside player in the poll imo.

 

[Kcb12345]

Hughes was sheltered by Edler. Makar was playing top pairing minutes and matchups on an injury decimated team. There's good reason Makar will easily win the Calder.

I too think Makar will win the Calder, but this isn't why. I'd give the icetime/defensive edge to Hughes

 

[majormajor]

We're talking about the top 4 defensemen of the last decade winners, winners of 6 of the last 4 Norrises, and likely 4 Hall of Famers. Only Hedman is really a question mark and given he's still on top of his game, he likely gets there too. All 4 of them have been top 10 players at various points and arguably top 5 in some of their top playoff runs. After the Sens run in '17, there were people arguing Karlsson was the best in the league. The HOH forum ranked Keith 24th among defensemen all time last year, and I can't imagine Karlsson and Doughty would be far behind. Is the potential for the new 4 being top 20ish defensemen? I doubt it. Maybe if we take their max potential and assume consistency and health, but that's just not realistic.

Of course they got all of those Norris Trophies, they were the best D-men of the decade. This is about comparing one generation to another. I'd argue that the group from the last decade is a solid step behind the generation before them (Pronger, Niedermayer, Lidstrom, etc...).

 

[earthbound]

I mean this is the 4 best dmen of their generation vs 4 top young players...even if all 4 young guys become franchise dmen that's not necessarily quite as good as the literal 4 best in the world. very unlikely that they're as a group as good as the vets.

 

[wetcoast]

Established vets are already there. Take the sure thing.

That's the easy call but people forget that in the first group only Doughty hit the ground running and the others took a while to get going.

At the similar stage of their careers the second group is slightly ahead IMO.

 

[Love]

What more could you want from Hughes in his rookie season?

Be over 6 feet tall

 

[Love]

Hughes was sheltered by Edler. Makar was playing top pairing minutes and matchups on an injury decimated team. There's good reason Makar will easily win the Calder.

How come Cale "top pairing minutes" Makar played less minutes than Hughes? Also our shutdown defence man is Tanev, who is Hughes' partner. In other words Hughes wasn't sheltered at all, least of all by Edler. Not sure what you're trying to get at with that one. Hughes/Tanev plays against anyone and everyone.

Makar also had a higher offensive zone start percentage than Hughes meanwhile Hughes had better Corsi, Fenwick, and a lower PDO (meaning he wasn't as lucky as Makar).

But OK bro!!!

 

[mouz135]

All I can do is shake my head at all the Hughes haters in this thread. Just unbelievable.

I can tell you all one thing - he’s certainly not the weakest link in his group. There’ll be some hefty piles of crow eating sooner rather than later

 

[wintersej]

I think in 10 years we will be able to say that four of the guys currently between 19 and 25 (the spread of Karlsson to Keith) have resumes as impressive as those guys. But are they the four in the OP? Probably not. Defensemen age weird.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Easily those vets, they're all established and are the best defensemen of their generation.

Those young guys could regress or slump pretty easily. Think of the rookie seasons of Phaneuf, Myers, Ekblad. They all looked like future Norris winners.

Even if they do pan out, are they combining for 6+ Norris and a Conn Smythe? I'd bet my last dollar no.

 

[Machinehead]

Three of the guys in the first group can start drafting a HOF speech right now.

I'm not ready to say that about the second group.