Where Would Matthews Rank on His Team's Depth Chart if Spezza, Tavares, Thornton Were at Their Peaks

[Dekes For Days]

Do you care more about results or hypotheticals? What would you want at the end of the day?

Well, first off, it's not hypotheticals. It's what they literally did, just with the added context of the time opportunity they did it in, which is a heavily-impacting factor in end raw production, especially on the PP. Second, you have to think about what we are discussing. Whenever I am having these discussions, I am talking about a player's ability. The issue with raw totals in those discussions, is that raw totals represent the combination of a player's ability and opportunity, and when you use exclusively raw totals and don't consider a heavily-impacting form of opportunity like PP TOI, you can come to wildly skewed conclusions about ability.

I mean, we can quibble about the exact amount, but the cold, hard, beyond obvious fact is that Ovechkin's raw PP totals have benefitted greatly from his additional PP time over the years, and especially in his early years, and especially relative to Matthews. I have acknowledged the difficulty in matching Ovechkin's career opportunity, which may very well prevent Matthews from matching his raw totals into the future, but to suggest it's some impossibility is baseless, because in ability, Matthews has been able to match him through the same stages of development, no matter how many benefits of the doubts we give Ovechkin.

Also, when we see Ovechkin's significant number of raw PP goals, we have vivid images and thoughts of coming in and putting the team on your back and scoring the PP game winner as the crowd goes wild, but the actual end team impact you get from those goals can be misleading. Everybody forgets what goes along with that massive PP time. Massive PK time for your team.

Sure, if your team plays high-penalty hockey or plays in an era of high-penalty hockey, and gets a ton of PP time, you can kinda pad your stats, and make yourself look better, but your team is killing off penalties in the process. During Ovechkin's U22 years, if we look at the difference between PP goals scored, and SH goals allowed, Washington had a goal differential of -62. Was all that PP time the team was getting really helping the team, or just Ovechkin's raw totals?

 

[authentic]

OV sixth all time in goals per game, JT is 76th, plus OV is about 5 years older and still going strong.
NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Goals Per Game | Hockey-Reference.com

JT?

 

[Golden_Jet]

JT?

I thought you were taking about John Tavares.

 

[Varan]

Whenever I am having these discussions, I am talking about a player's ability. The issue with raw totals in those discussions, is that raw totals represent the combination of a player's ability and opportunity, and when you use exclusively raw totals and don't consider a heavily-impacting form of opportunity like PP TOI, you can come to wildly skewed conclusions about ability.

That’s fair, however you are overrating Matthews abilities. You’re suggesting that everything holds up over the same amount of time because he is so great at goal-scoring. That’s the main issue everyone is having with you. It’s entirely possible that Matthews isn’t as good as you make him out to be. Again, we have to wait and see how his prime/peak/career pans out. You can’t just assume the sky and disregard that things can go down. That’s the whole issue here.

I have acknowledged the difficulty in matching Ovechkin's career opportunity, which may very well prevent Matthews from matching his raw totals into the future, but to suggest it's some impossibility is baseless, because in ability, Matthews has been able to match him through the same stages of development, no matter how many benefits of the doubts we give Ovechkin.

He hasn’t matched Ovechkin and they have not had the same stages of development. The only reason his numbers are comparable to OV since his draft is because OV had (statistically) his worst season of his career the exact same year AM was drafted (2016/17).

Also, when we see Ovechkin's significant number of raw PP goals, we have vivid images and thoughts of coming in and putting the team on your back and scoring the PP game winner as the crowd goes wild, but the actual end team impact you get from those goals can be misleading. Everybody forgets what goes along with that massive PP time. Massive PK time for your team.

What? If you’re on the PP more that means you’re on the PK as well? That makes no sense.

Sure, if your team plays high-penalty hockey or plays in an era of high-penalty hockey, and gets a ton of PP time, you can kinda pad your stats, and make yourself look better, but your team is killing off penalties in the process. During Ovechkin's U22 years, if we look at the difference between PP goals scored, and SH goals allowed, Washington had a goal differential of -62. Was all that PP time the team was getting really helping the team, or just Ovechkin's raw totals?

His team was absolutely god awful those years. It didn’t matter how many goals he scored. This makes no sense. Use literally any other year where they actually had a team and the difference is minute.

What a shocker you wouldn’t use any of his teams in the past 14 years, but the 2 his teams not only didn’t make the playoffs, but were complete trash. Show me the Capitals’ goal differential in 2009-10, 2015-16, 2016-17, or any of the other years they were a high seed, which was the case for majority of his career.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That’s fair, however you are overrating Matthews abilities. You’re suggesting that everything holds up over the same amount of time because he is so great at goal-scoring.

That's the thing. I am not overrating Matthews' abilities. You are underrating Matthews' abilities due to raw PP production, and overrating Ovechkin's abilities due to raw PP production, but again, raw PP production is a combination of ability and opportunity. It is heavily impacted by TOI.

I have not said that "everything holds up over the same amount of time because he is so great at goal-scoring". The fact is, Matthews' raw PP goal-scoring rate is well ahead of Ovechkin's, but I try to give Ovechkin a lot of additional credit and benefit of the doubt and have been open to discussing factors that could have impacted his rates. This is why I have tried to frame the discussion around his ability to match, not going around talking about how much better he is. That's why I have looked into all of these arguments that people make in his favour. But there are zero arguments that justify the claim that Matthews is behind Ovechkin in PP goal-scoring ability by any significant amount, regardless of how favourably we adjust Ovechkin's stats. The claims just don't add up.

It’s entirely possible that Matthews isn’t as good as you make him out to be.

I'm not making him out to be anything. I'm looking at what he's done. And then comparing him in the most accurate ways to previous goal-scorers. Did you ever stop to think Ovechkin wasn't as legendary as you make him out to be?

He hasn’t matched Ovechkin and they have not had the same stages of development. The only reason his numbers are comparable to OV since his draft is because OV had (statistically) his worst season of his career the exact same year AM was drafted (2016/17).

He has matched Ovechkin in ability, in the same stages of development. We are not talking about since 2016-2017 for Ovechkin. We are discussing Ovechkin's U23 seasons, just like Matthews.

What? If you’re on the PP more that means you’re on the PK as well? That makes no sense.

No, it makes perfect sense. You do realize that when somebody PPs, somebody else is PKing, right? When the league is dishing out more PP opportunities across the league, that means teams are experiencing more penalty kills as well. If you're a star that gets a lot of your team's PP time, it's a great boost to your raw totals, but it's not having the team impact you think.

Rampant game management in the NHL has ensured that PP opportunities and PK opportunities don't vary too significantly for individual teams as well.

Over the respective time periods:

Washington PP Time/GP: 8:16
Toronto PP Time/GP: 4:31

Washington PK Time/GP: 8:36
Toronto PK Time/GP: 4:42

The disparity is apparent and similar in both PP and PK.

His team was absolutely god awful those years. It didn’t matter how many goals he scored. This makes no sense. Use literally any other year where they actually had a team and the difference is minute.

What a shocker you wouldn’t use any of his teams in the past 14 years, but the 2 his teams not only didn’t make the playoffs, but were complete trash. Show me the Capitals’ goal differential in 2009-10, 2015-16, 2016-17, or any of the other years they were a high seed, which was the case for majority of his career.

I used the years that were being discussed, and it wasn't to take something away from Ovechkin; it was to show you that it's not as simple as more raw PP goals means more impact for the team. Why you are getting those totals matters. In Washington's case, Ovechkin's individual raw totals were benefitted by the massive amounts of special teams time the league was giving out to everybody, but having a lot of special teams time actually hurt the Washington team during those years.

Over the entire time Ovechkin has been in the league with Washington... 15 seasons... Washington's PP GF-SH GA differential is +16... Washington had the 4th best point percentage over that time. Again, this is not to discredit Ovechkin. It's to show that the idea of this massive team impact difference from the raw total disparity is unfounded. Special teams time, for the most part, is a package deal. That's why what you can do within your time is important. Your opponent will likely be getting similar opportunities.

 

[Sean Garrity]

4C, but to be fair we’re comparing him to elite players when they were at their peak. My guess is that this is not Matthews’ peak.

 

[authentic]

I'm surprised people think he would be #1 over peak Thornton, but #2 is the right answer I believe.

 

[authentic]

4C, but to be fair we’re comparing him to elite players when they were at their peak. My guess is that this is not Matthews’ peak.

LOL

 

[BostonBruins11]

3c, Spezza's peak was short but amazing.

 

[Cleatus]

1) Thornton (90 assists is unreal).

2) Matthews (he could maybe overtake Thornton with a 60 goal season, one day).

3) Spezza/Tavares (pretty close, but slight edge to Spezza IMO).

 

[crowi]

So many arguing with a massive homer, thinking what you type matters at all to the kid. Why waste time arguing against a trivial position? Leave it be. Makes no difference in the real world.

Matthews is 2-3C in op case.

 

[Sean Garrity]

LOL

Fantastic argument, I agree!

I think some people forget just how great and dominant Spezza (minimum of 1.2 P/PG) and his line was from 05-08. Not to mention the cup run he led his team on(something none of the other three have done).

 

[Regal]

Fantastic argument, I agree!

I think some people forget just how great and dominant Spezza (minimum of 1.2 P/PG) and his line was from 05-08. Not to mention the cup run he led his team on(something none of the other three have done).

I'm assuming he read "comparing him to elite players at their peaks" as suggesting Matthews isn't an elite player himself, which I don’t think you meant.

 

[Sean Garrity]

I'm assuming he read "comparing him to elite players at their peaks" as suggesting Matthews isn't an elite player himself, which I don’t think you meant.

I appreciate you trying to clarify Regan and you could be correct. I would probably know that if the poster put in more effort, but LOL. Anyhow, you're correct that that's not what I meant, but I know that reading comprehension is hard for some people. However, reading comprehension would teach us that what I meant was that this likely is NOT Matthews peak (maybe Leaf fans feel different though?), as in he will get better and could surpass everyone outside of Thornton as soon as next season. For now though, and to answer the poll, I'm sorry but he's my 4th line center.

 

[North Cole]

Matthews is easily better than peak Thornton and significantly better than peak Spezza and Tavares.

What kind of meme is this.

 

[Garthinater]

What kind of meme is this.

He voted matthews the 2nd best player in the league, no surprise there lol

 

[Varan]

What kind of meme is this.

I just saw this post in your post and I bursted out laughing. Why does HF have so many blind homers can someone please explain this to me?

 

[Sky04]

3c, Spezza's peak was short but amazing.

John Tavares was #2 in league scoring and a hart finalist, Matthews hasn't sniffed top-5.

 

[Sky04]

1) Thornton (90 assists is unreal).

2) Matthews (he could maybe overtake Thornton with a 60 goal season, one day).

3) Spezza/Tavares (pretty close, but slight edge to Spezza IMO).

Matthews hasn't had a top-5 season and none that compares to Tavares in 2015 where he finished 2nd in the league and outscored his next highest teammate by 35 points, the year before that Tavares was 3rd in NHL scoring before his injury at the Olympics.

Peak Tavares was competing for the Art Ross, the closest Auston Matthew's has been to an Art Ross is where he finished 30 points behind Draisaitl this year.

 

[Garthinater]

Matthews hasn't had a top-5 season and none that compares to Tavares in 2015 where he finished 2nd in the league and outscored his next highest teammate by 35 points, the year before that Tavares was 3rd in NHL scoring before his injury at the Olympics.

Peak Tavares was competing for the Art Ross, the closest Auston Matthew's has been to an Art Ross is where he finished 30 points behind Draisaitl this year.

I voted 3C but honestly the correct answer is 4C. Like you said, matthews has never even been close to getting an art ross.

 

[Sky04]

I voted 3C but honestly the correct answer is 4C. Like you said, matthews has never even been close to getting an art ross.

Thornton is easily #1, he has scoring finishes of 1,2,3,4,5, 8, which tops Spezza, Tavares and Matthew's put together.

Spezza has finished 4th and 8th in his top years, Tavares 2nd and 7th, you could argue Matthew's over Spezza considering his 4th place finish was still 20 points behind the leader that year, Tavares literally had the Art Ross in his pocket until the very last game of the season. Matthew's has nothing to compare to that season from Tavares and it's laughable people think he's better than prime Thornton when his best season to date is one that's 30 points behind the Art Ross winner. This is first season Matthew's has broken into the top-20 in points or points per game.....

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Thornton is easily #1, he has scoring finishes of 1,2,3,4,5, 8, which tops Spezza, Tavares and Matthew's put together.

Spezza has finished 4th and 8th in his top years, Tavares 2nd and 7th, you could argue Matthew's over Spezza considering his 4th place finish was still 20 points behind the leader that year, Tavares literally had the Art Ross in his pocket until the very last game of the season. Matthew's has nothing to compare to that season from Tavares and it's laughable people think he's better than prime Thornton when his best season to date is one that's 30 points behind the Art Ross winner. This is first season Matthew's has broken into the top-20 in points or points per game.....

I think that season Tavares finished second to Benn has to be taken with a bit of grain of salt, in terms of ranking how "dominant" it was compared to, say, the season Matthews was on pace to have this year. That was one of the worst scoring races in recent memory, with the winner ending up with a paltry 87 points.

Would you say Jamie Benn's best years were better than what we're seeing out of Mackinnon at his peak? I wouldn't, even though one has an Art Ross and the other doesn't. IMO, it's the same with that season Tavares had versus what Matthews just had. From a "where did they rank league-wide" point of view it might have looked better, but I don't think Tavares was actually *better* that year than what Matthews is currently playing at.

 

[Sky04]

I think that season Tavares finished second to Benn has to be taken with a bit of grain of salt, in terms of ranking how "dominant" it was compared to, say, the season Matthews was on pace to have this year. That was one of the worst scoring races in recent memory, with the winner ending up with a paltry 87 points.

Would you say Jamie Benn's best years were better than what we're seeing out of Mackinnon at his peak? I wouldn't, even though one has an Art Ross and the other doesn't. IMO, it's the same with that season Tavares had versus what Matthews just had. From a "where did they rank league-wide" point of view it might have looked better, but I don't think Tavares was actually *better* that year than what Matthews is currently playing at.

League wide placement isn't a perfect indicator but everybody that seasons plays under the same circumstances. If you want to compare them individually and take Mackinnon then sure, I think they played in similar circumstances on their respective teams. If you want to argue Mackinnon ahead because there's a big enough difference in production then sure, there's a case there, not going to fault the argument there when there's a 20-30 point difference despite scoring era.

Not the same for Matthews vs Tavares, Matthews plays on a significantly better team and was only on pace to outscore Tavares by 7 points. Tavares outscored his next highest teammate by 35 points. Scoring has opened up significantly, every player will look better when there's more power plays and smaller goalie equipment. Not seeing an argument for a guy who finished on pace for 94 points in 2020 in 9th place over a 2nd place finish in 2015 with 87 points.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

We haven't even seen Matthews prime yet. Thornton was great but that would be a razor close call imo. Gun to my head Thornton as we know how dominant he was but Matthews goalscoring is other worldly. Plus he's ahead of Jumbo defensively at the same juncture in their careers. Tavares 3rd then Spezza (great player , respect).

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

With a bit of context applied Matthew's would be the 2c in this scenario. If the leafs ever get more pp time and with Keefes willingness to put Matthew's out there a lot his pp production could sky rocket.

Matthew's played 3:12 of pp time this year. He had 25 pp points this year pace of 29 per 82

Tavares was getting upwards of 4 mins with a career high in 31 pp points (got his career high with 3:45 tho lol)

Spezza has a career high of 30 pp points and 4:17 career high in time.