Where do the Sabres finish?

[jBuds]

Our GAA will be bad. Simply bad.

30th without a doubt in my mind.

Why so adamant about this? Team defense can't get any worse, and the D corps is significantly better with Gorges replacing McBain's minutes... Add in Pysyk getting time, Benoit over a guy like Sulzer... and add Meszaros... Ristolainen... Goalies competing for time and likely a job/contract...

GA is far from my biggest worry. I think that nomer is pretty blatantly goals for. Where our offense comes from, and how consistent it is, if at all, is a major concern.

Moulson aside, we have one guy capable of putting the puck in the net at the nhl level (Gionta)... And he hasn't done so with any sort of consistency in a few years.

I really do expect a ton of low scoring losses. I don't see us getting bombarded and abused in the goals against department. I really don't.

Especially in a meritocracy where ice time is earned and not given based on dollars paid? D the **** up or ride the bench. Work your ass off in all three zones or you don't play. Pretty simple.

 

[Myllz]

Why so adamant about this? Team defense can't get any worse, and the D corps is significantly better with Gorges replacing McBain's minutes... Add in Pysyk getting time, Benoit over a guy like Sulzer... and add Meszaros... Ristolainen... Goalies competing for time and likely a job/contract...

With nobody in that list really filling in for Ehrhoff. Team defense probably can't get worse, but that doesn't mean it's going to improve, either. Goaltending caliber dropped a whooooooole lot, too.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

15 points. Fifteen. There's NO WAY we're picking that up on the rest of the league.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Why so adamant about this? Team defense can't get any worse, and the D corps is significantly better with Gorges replacing McBain's minutes... Add in Pysyk getting time, Benoit over a guy like Sulzer... and add Meszaros... Ristolainen... Goalies competing for time and likely a job/contract...

GA is far from my biggest worry. I think that nomer is pretty blatantly goals for. Where our offense comes from, and how consistent it is, if at all, is a major concern.

Moulson aside, we have one guy capable of putting the puck in the net at the nhl level (Gionta)... And he hasn't done so with any sort of consistency in a few years.

I really do expect a ton of low scoring losses. I don't see us getting bombarded and abused in the goals against department. I really don't.

Especially in a meritocracy where ice time is earned and not given based on dollars paid? D the **** up or ride the bench. Work your ass off in all three zones or you don't play. Pretty simple.

None of those guys replace Ehrhoff. At this point I'm probably starting to sound annoying about it but those guys are either kids, inconsistent or handle pucks like grenades. We won't be able to get out of our zone very much. You can be good defensively, but if you're trapped in your own zone for shifts upon shifts.. you'll get scored on.

Our forwards aren't very good defensively either. Apart from Girgensons and maybe Gionta? Reinhart if he makes the team?

The goaltending is also a massive downgrade considering that between november to the trade Miller was playing vezina quality.

 

[JLewyB]

if there was a choice between last and not last, I would probably choose "not last." But I can't pick a place more likely then last.

 

[ZZamboni]

Why so adamant about this? Team defense can't get any worse, and the D corps is significantly better with Gorges replacing McBain's minutes... Add in Pysyk getting time, Benoit over a guy like Sulzer... and add Meszaros... Ristolainen... Goalies competing for time and likely a job/contract...

GA is far from my biggest worry. I think that nomer is pretty blatantly goals for. Where our offense comes from, and how consistent it is, if at all, is a major concern.

Moulson aside, we have one guy capable of putting the puck in the net at the nhl level (Gionta)... And he hasn't done so with any sort of consistency in a few years.

I really do expect a ton of low scoring losses. I don't see us getting bombarded and abused in the goals against department. I really don't.

Especially in a meritocracy where ice time is earned and not given based on dollars paid? D the **** up or ride the bench. Work your ass off in all three zones or you don't play. Pretty simple.

I wish I shared your optimism


But I think and hope for one final terrible tire fire all season long.

 

[FoSotC]

Somewhere between 28 and 30. It looks like Calgary in particular is definitely a candidate for being worse than us during this upcoming season.

 

[SatanwasaSlovak]

Just outside of playoff, just because it's Buffalo and while we do sell off a lot of our players at trade-deadline, the team will still go strong for a playoff-push.

 

[jBuds]

With nobody in that list really filling in for Ehrhoff. Team defense probably can't get worse, but that doesn't mean it's going to improve, either. Goaltending caliber dropped a whooooooole lot, too.

Ehrhoff, a guy I supported tremendously while he was here and someone I valued on the whole, was completely absent last year. He was admittedly checked out mentally for a large chunk of time... Meaning, his minutes aren't going to be tough to replace from an effectiveness standpoint IMO. He had a bad year.

It's not optimism on my part - just a somewhat logical attempt at methodical dissection. I see an improved D corps and, quite simply, a much graver concern on the other side of the puck... Circling back to why I responded to Zz's GAA point, I just don't share that feeling as our biggest worry. At all.

The record setting lack of offense doesn't look improved to me. That's my big issue.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Ehrhoff, a guy I supported tremendously while he was here and someone I valued on the whole, was completely absent last year. He was admittedly checked out mentally for a large chunk of time... Meaning, his minutes aren't going to be tough to replace from an effectiveness standpoint IMO. He had a bad year.

It's not optimism on my part - just a somewhat logical attempt at methodical dissection. I see an improved D corps and, quite simply, a much graver concern on the other side of the puck... Circling back to why I responded to Zz's GAA point, I just don't share that feeling as our biggest worry. At all.

The record setting lack of offense doesn't look improved to me. That's my big issue.

He didn't have a bad year. He had 30 points as a D-man on a historically bad offensive team, he was a top possession defensman and he was a one man break out for long periods of time.
This "he was checked out" thing is blown way out of proportion. It's not like the guy was just walking.

To imply that his minutes will be easy to replace because he didn't always go 110% is a bit ridiculous IMO.

 

[stokes84]

If I were to guess, I would say last. But I wouldn't put any money on it. This team could surprise.

 

[jBuds]

He didn't have a bad year. He had 30 points as a D-man on a historically bad offensive team, he was a top possession defensman and he was a one man break out for long periods of time.
This "he was checked out" thing is blown way out of proportion. It's not like the guy was just walking.

To imply that his minutes will be easy to replace because he didn't always go 110% is a bit ridiculous IMO.

I'd compare his level of play to the season before last... Big difference.

And declaring a defenseman as any label courtesy of the number of points he scored is misleading and totally inept in evaluations.

 

[Chainshot]

I'd compare his level of play to the season before last... Big difference.

And declaring a defenseman as any label courtesy of the number of points he scored is misleading and totally inept in evaluations.

Yet even a "checked out" Ehrhoff is beyond what they know they have today on the blueline. Attitude issues implied or real, his skills and play are not easily replaced.

 

[Myllz]

Yet even a "checked out" Ehrhoff is beyond what they know they have today on the blueline. Attitude issues implied or real, his skills and play are not easily replaced.

Yup. Down year or not, his skills and abilities are going un-replaced. That's a pretty sizable hole that's not being filled. Combine that with the loss of Miller and I don't see their GAA being improved this year.

 

[CaptPantalones]

Want 30th but feeling 29th

 

[Mike McDermott]

Want 30th but feeling 29th

As long as the Islanders are 30th... I can live with that.

 

[yahhockey]

Bottom three is a lock and we're still the favourites for 30th.

Bovada released their NHL over/under point totals, which to be fair are betting lines more so than a prediction of how well teams will perform, and had this bottom five:
Buffalo 65.5
Florida 70.5
Calgary 71.5
Nashville 76.5
Ottawa 78.5

Just for fun the next five were Winnipeg, Edmonton and Arizona at 80.5 then Carolina and NYI tied at 81.5.

 

[jBuds]

Yet even a "checked out" Ehrhoff is beyond what they know they have today on the blueline. Attitude issues implied or real, his skills and play are not easily replaced.

Yup. Down year or not, his skills and abilities are going un-replaced. That's a pretty sizable hole that's not being filled. Combine that with the loss of Miller and I don't see their GAA being improved this year.

You're both right in simple terms. I just don't know how much stock I put into the idea that we've dramatically worsened by losing him based on what level he played at last year.

Mind you, I was one of his biggest supporters prior to last year. I just have a bad taste in my mouth after seeing him drop off in effort and consistency - and I don't think that we have any reason to mask that fact. He had a poor season for his standards and for what he's capable of.

His contract was fine in terms of price, he'll be a valuable piece to a contending team this season, etc. etc...

But Sulzer/Weber/McBain/Ehrhoff or Gorges/Benoit/Meszaros/Pysyk/Ristolainen? Drop off, stagnant, or improvement?

 

[Myllz]

You're both right in simple terms. I just don't know how much stock I put into the idea that we've dramatically worsened by losing him based on what level he played at last year.

Mind you, I was one of his biggest supporters prior to last year. I just have a bad taste in my mouth after seeing him drop off in effort and consistency - and I don't think that we have any reason to mask that fact. He had a poor season for his standards and for what he's capable of.

His contract was fine in terms of price, he'll be a valuable piece to a contending team this season, etc. etc...

But Sulzer/Weber/McBain/Ehrhoff or Gorges/Benoit/Meszaros/Pysyk/Ristolainen? Drop off, stagnant, or improvement?

They may not have worsened, but they certainly haven't improved, either. Considering how terrible they were last year, that's not a good statement to make. The defense is stagnant at best, and the goaltending is a big drop off. This team's going to be pretty terribly defensively, and they're going to have essentially no possession ability.

 

[Paxon]

You're both right in simple terms. I just don't know how much stock I put into the idea that we've dramatically worsened by losing him based on what level he played at last year.

Mind you, I was one of his biggest supporters prior to last year. I just have a bad taste in my mouth after seeing him drop off in effort and consistency - and I don't think that we have any reason to mask that fact. He had a poor season for his standards and for what he's capable of.

His contract was fine in terms of price, he'll be a valuable piece to a contending team this season, etc. etc...

But Sulzer/Weber/McBain/Ehrhoff or Gorges/Benoit/Meszaros/Pysyk/Ristolainen? Drop off, stagnant, or improvement?

Pysyk and Ristolainen played a substantial amount for the team last year. They each played more minutes than Sulzer, for example. Combined they played more minutes than McBain. Obviously they're both a year older now, but it's not like they're something completely new to the equation. The depth of the defensemen should be improved but on the other hand the group lost its best player. It's quite possible the group plays better on the whole than it did most of last year, but losing Ehrhoff still hurts unless Ristolainen is ready to step in and be a legit top 3 defenseman.

 

[jBuds]

Pysyk and Ristolainen played a substantial amount for the team last year. They each played more minutes than Sulzer, for example. Combined they played more minutes than McBain. Obviously they're both a year older now, but it's not like they're something completely new to the equation. The depth of the defensemen should be improved but on the other hand the group lost its best player. It's quite possible the group plays better on the whole than it did most of last year, but losing Ehrhoff still hurts unless Ristolainen is ready to step in and be a legit top 3 defenseman.

Pysyk and Ristolainen combined to play the full season - Mark at 44 GP and Rasmus at 34.

I include the latter in the equation (Ristolainen) in this sense: juxtapose the guy you saw in the beginning of the season with the guy you saw at the end after Rochester, and you're talking about a completely different player, mentally and physically (for the better). I assume you see that progression trend upwards.

I also maintain that Pysyk really didn't look too out of place until that one poor stretch before he was sent down. More ice time for a heady defenseman who knows how to play his area and mind his gaps is a natural improvement to the unit IMO

I'm not here to argue that we have a good blueline. It's clearly nothing close to that.

But the sheer removal of McBain and replacing the lowest form of Ehrhoff with the highest form of Risto and/or Pysyk, AND Gorges, has a chance to be better.

And it all circles back to my original point of contention, which is that the D unit is far less of a concern for me than the forwards are (both in defensive terms and in terms of scoring goals)

 

[jBuds]

Also, I'm of the belief that we'll see a nice healthy competition for starts between the pipes... and I've said all summer that my hope is that the better of the two earns a look from a contending team at the deadline and can be flipped for a respectable future asset.

 

[haseoke39]

if there was a choice between last and not last, I would probably choose "not last." But I can't pick a place more likely then last.

In this case, I believe the proper pick is where the 50% mark lies.

So, if you say:
40% in 30th
8% in 29th
5% in 28th
and diminishing probabilities for each spot thereafter, you would pick 28th, because that's where it's just as likely they finish higher as they finish lower.

Just my opinion on how you handle that situation.

 

[jBuds]

ADDITIONALLY, I am guilty of not factoring in a bit of competition.

Instead of just handing top four minutes to Ristolainen and Pysyk, I should really be commenting on the ability of Ruhwedel and, to a lesser degree McCabe, to push the prime pair of MP & RR to earn a ticket off of ROC

 

[Chainshot]

Pysyk and Ristolainen combined to play the full season - Mark at 44 GP and Rasmus at 34.

I include the latter in the equation (Ristolainen) in this sense: juxtapose the guy you saw in the beginning of the season with the guy you saw at the end after Rochester, and you're talking about a completely different player, mentally and physically (for the better). I assume you see that progression trend upwards.

I also maintain that Pysyk really didn't look too out of place until that one poor stretch before he was sent down. More ice time for a heady defenseman who knows how to play his area and mind his gaps is a natural improvement to the unit IMO

I'm not here to argue that we have a good blueline. It's clearly nothing close to that.

But the sheer removal of McBain and replacing the lowest form of Ehrhoff with the highest form of Risto and/or Pysyk, AND Gorges, has a chance to be better.

And it all circles back to my original point of contention, which is that the D unit is far less of a concern for me than the forwards are (both in defensive terms and in terms of scoring goals)

We're just going to have to agree to disagree on the bolded. Getting rid of McBain may be an addition through subtraction, but I simply do not agree on Ehrhoff departing with no viable replacement in his role as an improvement for this unit.