What's wrong with Semin ?

[Alexander the Gr8]

I haven't had the chance to watch Hurricanes games as often as I did last year, but it seems that Semin rarely finds the back of the net these days. I know the concussions didn't help with that, but last game against the Coyotes, he didn't shoot a lot and looked a bit passive to me (except for that beautiful feed to Jordan).
With the crazy shot he has, he should be burning some tenders.
Does he look frustrated sometimes ? Did it all started when Kirk Muller shuffled the lines ?

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[TheOllieC]

He has just been hesitant to shoot and always looking for the pass it seems. Aside from that there isn't really anything wrong like the idiots on the main board will try to say. Defensively he's fine. His shooting % is not even close to his average, it just seems he's in a slump. He needs to shoot like Skinner does.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

He has just been hesitant to shoot and always looking for the pass it seems. Aside from that there isn't really anything wrong like the idiots on the main board will try to say. Defensively he's fine. His shooting % is not even close to his average, it just seems he's in a slump. He needs to shoot like Skinner does.

Interesting, do you expect him to pick it up offensively and recreate that chemistry he had with Eric and Tlusty last year ?

 

[TheOllieC]

Interesting, do you expect him to pick it up offensively and recreate that chemistry he had with Eric and Tlusty last year ?

He clearly has chemistry with Eric but earlier this year they seemed to be forcing things too much. He didn't look bad with Jordan. Maybe those two can get it going together. I can't really determine who he'll be playing with down the line for sure but he will pick it up offensively. I'm almost positive about that.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Nope. A lot of what made that line work last year was Tlusty's play. Teams were worried about what Eric and Semin could do, so Tlusty tended to sneak under the radar.

This year, Tlusty fell back down to earth (in that he isn't scoring at a 20% rate) and Semin's been in and out of the lineup.

Whatever the first two lines have got now is working for them.

 

[bleedgreen]

He's hesitating to shoot and to make more aggressive moves to the net. He pulls it into shooting position and just......waits. Readjusts and repeats.

 

[La Huracanista]

He's been banged up, had some bad shooting luck, and hasn't shot enough.

He's still amazing, he's just not "on" right now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

09/10: 40 goals, .144 Sh %
10/11: 28 goals, .143 Sh %
11/12: 21 goals, .115 Sh %
12/13: 13 goals, .087 Sh % (strike shortened season)
13/14: 3 goals, .053 Sh %

Unlucky or Bad Trend?

 

[AhoLottaLove]

The poor shooting percentage can more easily be explained by poor shots and poor shooting locations than it can by a random string of bad luck.

Is it really a coincidence that Semin's play dropped off after being signed to that massive long-term contract? I'm not so sure it is. He seems noticeably hesitant, disinterested, and slow. Could be a lack of confidence, could be a result of his recent concussion (although I doubt it because his poor play started well before he got rocked), or it could just be that he doesn't care.

As much as I like to think that Caps fans were all wrong about his lack of effort I'm not so sure they were. I'm not giving up on the guy but he has to start showing more. If he plays the rest of the season this way we're all going to be looking at his contract like an albatross.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Yeah, signing that contract after 20 games (no matter how good those games were) was idiotic.

 

[What the Faulk]

He had 30 points in 30 games before the contract. He ended up with 44 points in 44 games and an injury last year. The contract has zero to do with anything.

Also, he's still their best possession player. And he's still shooting plenty. It's bad luck. The 5.3% won't last.

 

[Identity404]

The poor shooting percentage can more easily be explained by poor shots and poor shooting locations than it can by a random string of bad luck.

Is it really a coincidence that Semin's play dropped off after being signed to that massive long-term contract? I'm not so sure it is. He seems noticeably hesitant, disinterested, and slow. Could be a lack of confidence, could be a result of his recent concussion (although I doubt it because his poor play started well before he got rocked), or it could just be that he doesn't care.

As much as I like to think that Caps fans were all wrong about his lack of effort I'm not so sure they were. I'm not giving up on the guy but he has to start showing more. If he plays the rest of the season this way we're all going to be looking at his contract like an albatross.

Semin's was doing the same things last year, a contract year.

 

[AhoLottaLove]

Semin's was doing the same things last year, a contract year.

Maybe we're watching different games. In the games I've watched Semin has rarely been noticeable in a good way this season. Last season that wasn't the case.

 

[AhoLottaLove]

He had 30 points in 30 games before the contract. He ended up with 44 points in 44 games and an injury last year. The contract has zero to do with anything.

Also, he's still their best possession player. And he's still shooting plenty. It's bad luck. The 5.3% won't last.

He's shooting a lot less than he was last season. He had 150 shots in 44 games last season while this season he has 57 shots in 22 games. That's a pretty big decrease.

It's not even that to me. His shot quality has been noticeable lower. Weak shots, bad angles, floaters, etc. There haven't been a ton of shots he's had that the goalie stopped and I thought to myself "that should have been a goal."

 

[What the Faulk]

He's taken 147 in 22 while last year he took 319. Blocked shots are way up...he's on pace to crush last year's total. Maybe that's a product of struggling linemates where he gets frustrated and throws a puck into someone's shinpads, or who knows what other number of things. I'm fine with the way he's playing, though.

 

[Identity404]

He's shooting a lot less than he was last season. He had 150 shots in 44 games last season while this season he has 57 shots in 22 games. That's a pretty big decrease.

It's not even that to me. His shot quality has been noticeable lower. Weak shots, bad angles, floaters, etc. There haven't been a ton of shots he's had that the goalie stopped and I thought to myself "that should have been a goal."

3.4 vs 2.6 Shots per game. I don't know... is it really that much? I disagree that his shot selection has been noticeable worst. Last year he was doing a lot of the same things, including completely missing the net about 60% of the time.

 

[bleedgreen]

He isn't playing the same this season. He isn't as noticeable. We all want him to work out but I would be surprised to hear people say different. The reasons for the drop may be good ones, but there's a difference this year. He could snap out of it at any time, I don't doubt he could.

 

[raynman]

Didn't he start the season with a wrist injury?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

IWhat's wrong with Semin?

A slump, an injury, and a small sample size.

--hank

 

[A Star is Burns]

As everyone has said, it's a combination of things. I don't think he looks disinterested. I thought a lot of times early in the year he was noticeably one of the better looking players on his line when they were trying to force the TEA line to work. Back then I think he was suffering from two line mates that weren't playing particularly well and a lack of chemistry. Right now I think it is a lack of chemistry and being rusty after coming back. I still don't think he's looked awful or anything, but Skinner was pretty rough his first few games after injury. I'm hoping things will kick into gear for Semin in a similar manner. I think he just needs to get some confidence, shoot a bit more, and get put with some line mates consistently. I'm far from worried about him yet.

 

[La Huracanista]

3.4 vs 2.6 Shots per game. I don't know... is it really that much? I disagree that his shot selection has been noticeable worst. Last year he was doing a lot of the same things, including completely missing the net about 60% of the time.

That's huge! Let's say that 10% of SOG go in (it's actually like 8.6 or something, it's not really important because there's a lot of variance in shooting percentage from season to season). And let's say that Semin hypothetically plays two 82-game seasons at that pace.

The difference is 28 goals in the good year, 21 in the bad year. Basically it's the difference between a top six goal scorer and a top line, all star caliber player.

While it's true that shot location plays a role in shooting percentage, Semin is not a defenseman. He's a phenomenally skilled forward. Him getting shots in the slot is not a problem. The problem is that he's passing up shots.

Semin's been a 30 goal scorer, and even a 40 goal scorer. Last year he was on pace for close for 25...and that would have been an off year. It's shortsighted to ignore that history because of 22 games, and way less than 82 games combined for the Canes. That's just silly.

Also, FWIW, there's two players in hockey who you can expect to get goals at double the normal rate or so: Steve Stamkos and Sidney Crosby. They take the same amount of shots as say, Eric Staal (~300), but they get 45-60 goals instead of 30. Ovechkin got his 50 goal seasons when he was taking 450-550 shots. Then Dale Hunter literally smothered him for a period of time. With a pillow.

 

[raynman]

Possible that he's taking less shots because of the aforementioned wrist problems? Hopefully a couple more games will get him back in the groove similar to Skinner.

 

[Moosetache]

I haven't had the chance to watch Hurricanes games as often as I did last year, but it seems that Semin rarely finds the back of the net these days. I know the concussions didn't help with that, but last game against the Coyotes, he didn't shoot a lot and looked a bit passive to me (except for that beautiful feed to Jordan).
With the crazy shot he has, he should be burning some tenders.
Does he look frustrated sometimes ? Did it all started when Kirk Muller shuffled the lines ?

One of the essentials you have to do in order to find the back of the net is shoot the puck. As Yogi Berra would have said had he played hockey, 90% of the pucks that dont get shot, don't go in.

 

[Moosetache]

JR definitely alluded to a wrist injury at a luncheon I attended. Apparently had been struggling with it since the preseason and it had been very slow to heal. I obviously have no idea of the injury status now, as that luncheon was several weeks ago. As I said, he just needs to shoot as much as possible, like Skinner is now. That shooting percentage is likely a product of a few forced bad shots, the wrist injury and some bad luck. .053 turns into 10% really quickly when you score 4 goals in 2 games though, so lets just hope for the statistical median to arrive.

As for his overall play, I think he has been pretty good when he has been in there. His possession of the puck is the same, I would like to see a little more urgency out of him at times. Defenders seem to realize that if they get into the body on him quickly they can greatly decrease his effectiveness, so make plays faster. Play fast but dont rush is what I would preach to him.

On a side note, I just want to make sure everyone on here has seen Marty St. Louis' legs. This is how you can dominate in the NHL at 5' 6"

http://deadspin.com/martin-st-louis-does-not-skip-leg-day-1310303406

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

On a side note, I just want to make sure everyone on here has seen Marty St. Louis' legs. This is how you can dominate in the NHL at 5' 6"

http://deadspin.com/martin-st-louis-does-not-skip-leg-day-1310303406

I've stood next to Marty a few times. I think his calves are bigger than my thighs.

And here's why his legs look like they do.