Speculation: What year do the Sabres make the playoffs?

[Moskau]

I don't buy trading Gaustad as the beginning of the rebuild. If Regier doesn't get insane value and get's a 3rd round pick instead does it still signify a rebuild? Pominville would be the move that started Darcy's rebuild but Darcy isn't the GM anymore so you can easily say the true rebuild didn't start until Tim Murray took over as GM. Especially since other than Girgensons any prospect we picked up over the last 2 years could be traded away if Murray wasn't high on them. And as much as people wont like to hear this some of the prospects from the last 2 drafts WILL be traded away. And that could include Ristolainen or Zadorov. So to me this year was the first real year of the rebuild and I think '17-'18 would likely be the earliest year the Sabres make the playoffs which would be right in line with what Murray wants as far as rebuild length.

 

[Yatzhee]

I would say the retool started with Gaustad (in the sense that we try to change out the core) and the rebuild started with Lindy getting fired (in the sense of trying to tank).

I would say we make the playoffs 2015-16. I think with all the youth we have and the ages we have them at, this will not be a slow rise to competence. When it hits, it will be fast and electrifying, much like the '06 Sabres coming out of nowhere.

Interesting view. But that sabres team doesn't compare to the recent roster. Prepare for 16/17 and that's only if the stars align.

 

[Digable5]

I don't think the team will be a CONTENDER until 16/17, but I could easily see them making the playoffs in 15/16. Girgensons will be in his 4th year as a pro and assuming you have a Sam + McDavid/Eichel you have the center depth and talent you need. You'll have the offseason before 15/16 to make free agent signings with plenty of cap room, if they don't add some veterans this offseason too.

The defense could be monstrous with Myers, Ehrhoff, Pysyk, McCabe, Ristolainen and Zadorov. All that could keep us from the playoffs might be a goalie.

 

[joshjull]

I don't buy trading Gaustad as the beginning of the rebuild. If Regier doesn't get insane value and get's a 3rd round pick instead does it still signify a rebuild? Pominville would be the move that started Darcy's rebuild but Darcy isn't the GM anymore so you can easily say the true rebuild didn't start until Tim Murray took over as GM. Especially since other than Girgensons any prospect we picked up over the last 2 years could be traded away if Murray wasn't high on them. And as much as people wont like to hear this some of the prospects from the last 2 drafts WILL be traded away. And that could include Ristolainen or Zadorov. So to me this year was the first real year of the rebuild and I think '17-'18 would likely be the earliest year the Sabres make the playoffs which would be right in line with what Murray wants as far as rebuild length.

I not quite sure how you can listen to Murray talk about his plans and come away with the idea that he hopes to make the playoffs in 4 seasons at the earliest .

Murray has repeatedly said he wants to speed up the rebuild and will use our incredible amount of assets in his quest to make that happen. I would be shocked if we weren't in the playoffs in 2 or 3 seasons.

 

[Moskau]

I not quite sure how you can listen to Murray talk about his plans and come away with the idea that he hopes to make the playoffs in 4 seasons at the earliest .

Murray has repeatedly said he wants to speed up the rebuild and will use our incredible amount of assets in his quest to make that happen. I would be shocked if we weren't in the playoffs in 2 or 3 seasons.

I actually just thought about the years wrong when I wrote that. 16-17 is the year I was thinking of which would be our 2015 pick's 2nd season in the league. For some reason I had it in my head that 2016-2017 would be that players rookie season. Basically I feel they make the playoffs in Connor McDavid's 2nd season. Whatever team that may be on.

 

[joshjull]

I actually just thought about the years wrong when I wrote that. 16-17 is the year I was thinking of which would be our 2015 pick's 2nd season in the league. For some reason I had it in my head that 2016-2017 would be that players rookie season. Basically I feel they make the playoffs in Connor McDavid's 2nd season. Whatever team that may be on.

Fair enough.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I not quite sure how you can listen to Murray talk about his plans and come away with the idea that he hopes to make the playoffs in 4 seasons at the earliest .

Murray has repeatedly said he wants to speed up the rebuild and will use our incredible amount of assets in his quest to make that happen. I would be shocked if we weren't in the playoffs in 2 or 3 seasons.

Exactly. It'll be interesting to see how he goes about doing that, but I see this team in the playoffs by 2016-2017.

 

[Zip15]

I not quite sure how you can listen to Murray talk about his plans and come away with the idea that he hopes to make the playoffs in 4 seasons at the earliest .

Murray has repeatedly said he wants to speed up the rebuild and will use our incredible amount of assets in his quest to make that happen. I would be shocked if we weren't in the playoffs in 2 or 3 seasons.

I have little doubt that he believes that he can ice a playoff team by the 2016-17 season. But things don't always go as planned. I think even with McDavid/Eichel (and, percentage-wise, the latter is more likely, and is probably more of the "is going to be really freaking good" and less of the "generational talent" like McDavid) and one of the Sams in his rookie season, they're no better than a 75-point team in 2015-16--which would still be a substantial jump from the 55-60 point team they'll probably ice next season (and that's an optimistic estimate, IMO). I think they'll be in the mix in 2016-17, but fall a little short. That's why I went with 2017-18.

 

[Zman5778]

I have little doubt that he believes that he can ice a playoff team by the 2016-17 season. But things don't always go as planned. I think even with McDavid/Eichel (and, percentage-wise, the latter is more likely, and is probably more of the "is going to be really freaking good" and less of the "generational talent" like McDavid) and one of the Sams in his rookie season, they're no better than a 75-point team in 2015-16--which would still be a substantial jump from the 55-60 point team they'll probably ice next season (and that's an optimistic estimate, IMO). I think they'll be in the mix in 2016-17, but fall a little short. That's why I went with 2017-18.

This is pretty much why I said 17/18.

15/16 will be used to integrate the kids fully and see what we have and what we need. The offseason of 16 we'll start to see Murray trading what we have excess of for what we need.

16/17 is likely to be the year that we start slow but slowly build chemistry. It'll also be the year where our prospect pool is "thinnest" and we'll start to see Murray using draft picks to plus holes. The offseason of 17 is when Murray plugs the final holes via the UFA market, leading to the playoffs in 17/18.

 

[joshjull]

This is pretty much why I said 17/18.

15/16 will be used to integrate the kids fully and see what we have and what we need. The offseason of 16 we'll start to see Murray trading what we have excess of for what we need.

16/17 is likely to be the year that we start slow but slowly build chemistry. It'll also be the year where our prospect pool is "thinnest" and we'll start to see Murray using draft picks to plus holes. The offseason of 17 is when Murray plugs the final holes via the UFA market, leading to the playoffs in 17/18.

I think these overly simplistic and linear timelines need to go away. We will be developing the roster while at the same time looking for pieces we need via trades and free agency. I also think too many posters have this idea that we will be drafting and developing the majority of a rebuilt roster.

 

[couture23]

I'd like to see 2017-2018.

 

[jBuds]

I think these overly simplistic and linear timelines need to go away. We will be developing the roster while at the same time looking for pieces we need via trades and free agency. I also think too many posters have this idea that we will be drafting and developing the majority of a rebuilt roster.

Right. There needs to be a realization that we may steady the transaction boat and maintain a roster for a period of time that still doesn't make any noise.

It's only after they grow a bit together, simultaneously adding the missing subtle/smaller final pieces, that we see a team who can delve deep into the postseason.

We won't just add picks and add picks and add prospects and add prospects and then end the rebuild on cue en route to the ECF.

 

[Zip15]

I think these overly simplistic and linear timelines need to go away. We will be developing the roster while at the same time looking for pieces we need via trades and free agency. I also think too many posters have this idea that we will be drafting and developing the majority of a rebuilt roster.

Has anyone said otherwise? I have no doubt we'll be doing those things. I think the only "overly simplistic" and "linear" way of thinking going on is the implicit assumption carried by many that Murray will be both making those moves AND all (or most of) those moves will improve the club, as if he's not going to make some mistakes along the way. Sure, he may make a Bobby Ryan-esque trade in a year or two, but did Bobby Ryan make Ottawa better last season? This team has a very long way to travel to get to the playoffs, so I don't see anything unreasonable about believing that 2017-18 is the year they make the postseason.

 

[Dutchess]

I took a shot at it.

 

[joshjull]

Has anyone said otherwise?

Did you read the post I quoted? Or have you seen many of the lineups posters have put out there?

I have no doubt we'll be doing those things. I think the only "overly simplistic" and "linear" way of thinking going on is the implicit assumption carried by many that Murray will be both making those moves AND all (or most of) those moves will improve the club, as if he's not going to make some mistakes along the way.

Of course he will make mistakes and I didn't say otherwise. Murray himself said he would make mistakes but won't let that deter him from making moves. But I think many posters (not saying you're one of them) don't seem to realize the incredible amount of assets at our disposal. Aside from our deep and highly rated prospect pool we have a historic amount of picks in the top 2 rounds over the next several years. I expect Murray to make many aggressive moves to improve the team with these assets. They obviously all won't all pan out.

Sure, he may make a Bobby Ryan-esque trade in a year or two, but did Bobby Ryan make Ottawa better last season?

I expect more than one of these types of moves and few smaller versions of this type of move. Ryan not making Ottawa better is utterly irrelevant to my point. I'm not expecting one magical move to make us a better team and push us over the top and into the playoffs.

This team has a very long way to travel to get to the playoffs, so I don't see anything unreasonable about believing that 2017-18 is the year they make the postseason.

Expecting a team with the assets we have, in the current cap and contract world we live in, to take at least 4 more years to make the playoffs is unacceptable IMO.

 

[FamilyGuy716]

I took a shot at it.

Nice article... here is my shot at 2015-16 lineup with them drafting Bennett and Eichel...

Hodgson – Eichel – Grigorenko
Ennis – Bennett – Armia
Foligno – Girgensons – Compher
Baptiste – Larsson – Fasching
Deslauriers, Possler

Ehrhoff - Myers
Zadorov – Ristolainen
McCabe – Pysyk
Ruhwedel

Enroth
Neuvirth
Ullmark

I'm not sure if Compher, Fasching or Ullmark will be ready, they might be on 16-17 team. Clearly, the biggest question is the top 6 wingers (Hodgson, Grigorenko, Ennis, Armia) . Who will come close to their ceiling? My guess is at least 2 of them aren't on the team by 16-17 season.

I think we make the playoffs in 16-17 if we get McDavid or Eichel

 

[haseoke39]

Nice article... here is my shot at 2015-16 lineup with them drafting Bennett and Eichel...

Hodgson – ROOKIE – ROOKIE
Ennis – ROOKIE – ROOKIE
Foligno – Girgensons – ROOKIE
ROOKIE – ROOKIE – ROOKIE
ROOKIE, ROOKIE

Ehrhoff - Myers
ROOKIE – ROOKIE
ROOKIE – Pysyk
Ruhwedel

Enroth
ROOKIE
ROOKIE

I'm not sure if Compher, Fasching or Ullmark will be ready, they might be on 16-17 team. Clearly, the biggest question is the top 6 wingers (Hodgson, Grigorenko, Ennis, Armia) . Who will come close to their ceiling? My guess is at least 2 of them aren't on the team by 16-17 season.

I think we make the playoffs in 16-17 if we get McDavid or Eichel

Just wanted to call attention to how you built that thing. Some of those rookies might be second year players, but there's no one in particular that I would bet on. I think there's exactly zero chance Murray ices a team built like that.