What would happen if there is no OHL season?

[RayzorIsDull]

In regards to the draft order I don't think you repeat the draft order of last year because that's not fair at all and the season wasn't played. Maybe you do a 4 year weighted average of the overall OHL standings over the last 4 seasons and each team is awarded the amount of ping pong balls say 20 balls for a NB last place finish of 19/20. Include 20/21 as in each team gets 1 ping pong ball to make it totally fair. So 20/21, 19/20, 18/19, 17/18 are the 4 years. You have enough ping pong balls in the hopper, you account for enough fluctuation from year to year as well. Under this idea you would have.

Erie 49
Kingston 47
North Bay 46
Flint 44
Mississauga 39
Sudbury 38
Peterborough 36
Sarnia 35
Windsor 35
Barrie 35
Niagara 34
Hamilton 34
Guelph 32
Owen Sound 30
Oshawa 25
Saginaw 23
Soo 20
Ottawa 18
Kitchener 18
London 12

Under this idea you would have 650 total ping pong balls and the highest % for #1 pick would be Erie at 7.5%, lowest London at 1.8% and then you have Mississauga to Hamilton all mashed up between 6% and 5.2%. Televise the lottery to make it legit and build some interest into the lottery. If you just do the same draft order as last year you have absolutely zero interest of any fans for teams, absolutely zero drama and the league just going with status quo kicking the can down the road.

 

[AttackSound]

Regarding the draft, they cannot simply duplicate the draft order from the 2020 draft. It isn't fair in any way.

If you weight the draft based on performance, you have to at least take multiple seasons into consideration to help at least balance it in a manner that respects the cyclical performace of junior hockey. For example, if tephey did a total points accrued the past 4 seasons, at least that would account for what would be considered a full cycle. The team with the lowest point total over the last 4 seasons gets the first pick. I'd be ok with that sort of scenario. It would at least be more fair than using one season performance from two seasons ago.

For as much as this is something that can be spinned in multiple different ways we can all agree that any shape of sorting of the draft picks would be difficult.

As there is no real fair way to determine what the league would do the only real options I see comes down to this. A 4 season tracking system for as much as it would be in theory possible that still wouldn't play a big factor as years 1 and 4 would be essentially rebuilds for teams it would be very tricky to calculate on something that could and really only effects 3 years tops as the 4th year would essentially be a mirror image of year 1.

The unfortunate thing is that the unknown of how far into the future this could and will play a factor in. Here is a bit of brain food to think about the 2000's OA draft class will have no effect on the season if/when it gets going.

I agree that they can't 100% duplicate the standings however they could however take the winning percentages and look at seasons where similar standings match the following year of where everyone placed last season in similar standing positions it wouldn't be perfect but it would give a more realistic perspective on where everyone would roughly finish plus minus a point or two. As the league standings don't change drastically in a 1-2 stint very much you could use that as a rough template to gage teams positioning in the standings.

As we all know certain teams start seasons at different winning percentages you could look back at similar seasons and loosely project a teams standing based off winning percentage.

This could be done by looking at schedules and seeing what each teams records were from September to December and January to March in similar seasons. I know it wouldn't be 100% accurate but it would give a more accurate overview of what 2021 should and could've looked like.

I have done similar reviews on Owen Sound's seasons in the past and the one thing has always been apparent is that records and standings flow has been constantly accurate even in 1-2 year reviews.

Unfortunately the real issue is that you would need ever teams record that would cover exactly close to one full season minus a few games and deduct those points that weren't played for out of the equation.

It could be done but very time consuming and by the time someone would figure out where everyone placed the OHL could be in the place to starting back up again. But like I said earlier you still have to figure out where everyone would roughly finish due to their winning percentages.

This would be really hard as teams winning percentages vary from week to week and year to year.

 

[Otto]

You won’t get agreement. Branch has proven he’s ok with telling rather than asking.

Branch isn't the decision maker

 

[Otto]

In regards to the draft order I don't think you repeat the draft order of last year because that's not fair at all and the season wasn't played. Maybe you do a 4 year weighted average of the overall OHL standings over the last 4 seasons and each team is awarded the amount of ping pong balls say 20 balls for a NB last place finish of 19/20. Include 20/21 as in each team gets 1 ping pong ball to make it totally fair. So 20/21, 19/20, 18/19, 17/18 are the 4 years. You have enough ping pong balls in the hopper, you account for enough fluctuation from year to year as well. Under this idea you would have.

Erie 49
Kingston 47
North Bay 46
Flint 44
Mississauga 39
Sudbury 38
Peterborough 36
Sarnia 35
Windsor 35
Barrie 35
Niagara 34
Hamilton 34
Guelph 32
Owen Sound 30
Oshawa 25
Saginaw 23
Soo 20
Ottawa 18
Kitchener 18
London 12

Under this idea you would have 650 total ping pong balls and the highest % for #1 pick would be Erie at 7.5%, lowest London at 1.8% and then you have Mississauga to Hamilton all mashed up between 6% and 5.2%. Televise the lottery to make it legit and build some interest into the lottery. If you just do the same draft order as last year you have absolutely zero interest of any fans for teams, absolutely zero drama and the league just going with status quo kicking the can down the road.

There is no interest in junior hockey outside of junior hockey centres. There is even less interest in a junior hockey draft, and even less in a draft lottery. No network is going to give up 30 minutes to an hour of their time for it

 

[OMG67]

There is no interest in junior hockey outside of junior hockey centres. There is even less interest in a junior hockey draft, and even less in a draft lottery. No network is going to give up 30 minutes to an hour of their time for it

Agreed. And I doubt they go through the drama of using lottery machines at all. They would make a decision on an order in some fashion and go from there.

 

[dirty12]

Regarding the draft, they cannot simply duplicate the draft order from the 2020 draft. It isn't fair in any way.

If you weight the draft based on performance, you have to at least take multiple seasons into consideration to help at least balance it in a manner that respects the cyclical performace of junior hockey. For example, if tephey did a total points accrued the past 4 seasons, at least that would account for what would be considered a full cycle. The team with the lowest point total over the last 4 seasons gets the first pick. I'd be ok with that sort of scenario. It would at least be more fair than using one season performance from two seasons ago.

This option with 20-1 weighted lottery (<10 to <1% odds) seems fair enough. It might actually be a small consolation for those teams all-in the 2000-01 born that will not have seen a playoff the teams were built for.

 

[OMG67]

This option with 20-1 weighted lottery (<10 to <1% odds) seems fair enough. It might actually be a small consolation for those teams all-in the 2000-01 born that will not have seen a playoff the teams were built for.

It is better than simply repeating the order from 2020, that is for sure.

I am just not a fan of a strong team getting the first pick. Imagine if Ottawa or London won the lottery?

I like simply using the average of the last four seasons. It provides enough performance data to show the overall health of a franchise compared to the rest of the league. Weaker franchises based on performance over time would be rewarded with a higher pick. Those that have achieved a higher status don't need the higher pick.

I believe this to be more fair. I am ok with a lottery like you propose. I just worry about the "what if London won the lottery" and all the crap that would naturally come with that. Or, what if a team like North Bay were to pick something like 15th?

I'd feel more comfortable if it were weighted like you mention but take the variability of a lottery out of the mix. I can only see negative outcomes and a heck of a lot of bitching.

 

[dirty12]

It is better than simply repeating the order from 2020, that is for sure.

I am just not a fan of a strong team getting the first pick. Imagine if Ottawa or London won the lottery?

I like simply using the average of the last four seasons. It provides enough performance data to show the overall health of a franchise compared to the rest of the league. Weaker franchises based on performance over time would be rewarded with a higher pick. Those that have achieved a higher status don't need the higher pick.

I believe this to be more fair. I am ok with a lottery like you propose. I just worry about the "what if London won the lottery" and all the crap that would naturally come with that. Or, what if a team like North Bay were to pick something like 15th?

I'd feel more comfortable if it were weighted like you mention but take the variability of a lottery out of the mix. I can only see negative outcomes and a heck of a lot of bitching.

removing top 4 or top 2 from each conference or better yet cap movement of lottery result to 5 spots should be fine with all

 

[member 71782]

Some interesting thoughts on this and agree with parts of many.

What I would do, probably complicate it a bit more than the O would want to to handle things

Rank teams by average winning percentages for the last four seasons played including 2019/20.

Divide those rankings into 5 groups, any tie breakers needed would be the same as they use for playoff seedings.

Lottery for each group, single ball instead of weighted since there would only be four teams in each group.

Rotate order each round for each group

Round 1 - Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7 Team 8 etc
Round 2 - Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 1, Team 6, Team 7, Team 8, Team 5 etc
Round 3 - Team 3, Team 4, Team 1, Team 2, Team 7, Team 8, Team 5, Team 6 etc
Round 4 - Team 4, Team 1. Team 2, Team 3, Team 8, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7 etc
Round 5 - Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7, Team 8 etc
Etc
Etc
Etc

Teams that have been consistently better over the last four seasons will pick in the later parts of the rounds, Teams that have been consistently middle of the pack will pick middle of the rounds and those who have been more consistently lower ranked will pick in the earlier parts of the rounds. With no season it would not be fair to simply have a lottery in a league with most teams seeing a four year cycle of building and rebuilding and having their picks ending up in the same spot when any year can see surprises come up as well. Taking averages, a lottery based on smaller groups and rotation of the order for each lottery group takes into account the consistency of each team while still providing chance to replace the season that wasn't played for the actual order of picks.

There will no perfect solution since teams made moves in 2019/20 based on plans for that year, this coming season or for future plans so no one will reap the rewards of the moves they made if they were planning on contending and those who were looking at starting a rebuild so something that takes recent history on a larger scale allows chance to determine a draft order while still keeping teams within a realistic competitive grouping.

A bit more to it? Yes but really it's not that much more. For fairness a TV broadcast is probably unrealistic but there's no reason why they can't livestream it. Once they've decided there won't be a season they should put a trade freeze into effect until two weeks before the draft. Hold this type of lottery set up so orders can be determined for the entire draft then open up0 the trade window again for a week to allow teams to try to fill or change their draft board.

Take the same order of the original lottery and use it for the Import Draft as well.

 

[AttackSound]

Some interesting thoughts on this and agree with parts of many.

What I would do, probably complicate it a bit more than the O would want to to handle things

Rank teams by average winning percentages for the last four seasons played including 2019/20.

Divide those rankings into 5 groups, any tie breakers needed would be the same as they use for playoff seedings.

Lottery for each group, single ball instead of weighted since there would only be four teams in each group.

Rotate order each round for each group

Round 1 - Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7 Team 8 etc
Round 2 - Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 1, Team 6, Team 7, Team 8, Team 5 etc
Round 3 - Team 3, Team 4, Team 1, Team 2, Team 7, Team 8, Team 5, Team 6 etc
Round 4 - Team 4, Team 1. Team 2, Team 3, Team 8, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7 etc
Round 5 - Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, Team 4, Team 5, Team 6, Team 7, Team 8 etc
Etc
Etc
Etc

Teams that have been consistently better over the last four seasons will pick in the later parts of the rounds, Teams that have been consistently middle of the pack will pick middle of the rounds and those who have been more consistently lower ranked will pick in the earlier parts of the rounds. With no season it would not be fair to simply have a lottery in a league with most teams seeing a four year cycle of building and rebuilding and having their picks ending up in the same spot when any year can see surprises come up as well. Taking averages, a lottery based on smaller groups and rotation of the order for each lottery group takes into account the consistency of each team while still providing chance to replace the season that wasn't played for the actual order of picks.

There will no perfect solution since teams made moves in 2019/20 based on plans for that year, this coming season or for future plans so no one will reap the rewards of the moves they made if they were planning on contending and those who were looking at starting a rebuild so something that takes recent history on a larger scale allows chance to determine a draft order while still keeping teams within a realistic competitive grouping.

A bit more to it? Yes but really it's not that much more. For fairness a TV broadcast is probably unrealistic but there's no reason why they can't livestream it. Once they've decided there won't be a season they should put a trade freeze into effect until two weeks before the draft. Hold this type of lottery set up so orders can be determined for the entire draft then open up0 the trade window again for a week to allow teams to try to fill or change their draft board.

Take the same order of the original lottery and use it for the Import Draft as well.

There are parts of this that make sense and parts that are just unrealistic. Winning percentages is one thing that is something that can be used fairly well as for your small group idea that would be where it is unrealistic as there isn't separate drafts for both conferences if that were the case it would work but then you'd create more problems by have teams picking because you'd have groupings where teams would never improve their selections and teams that would be consistently bad.

What would be something that sounds good in theory would be utter chaos for managers. For that sake the league might as well just computer generate a mock schedule and run it to see the outcome. Lock all trades as of the last announced start date the league put out and say until said date teams can only trade draft picks around but do it in a way that a computer program decides the outcome based off previous data over the past 2 seasons of game results and run it for a full 68 game schedule.

Then use the final results as order for the draft from there set a draft date and tell all the GM's that this is where you pick on draft day based on that data, then allow the GM's to trade picks based on the computers outcome. It wouldn't be perfect but it would be more accurate all the league would have to do is look back at similar schedules that would follow last seasons standings results and points and calculate the winning percentages based off similar data it would give a more realistic representation of where teams would truly sit in the standings.

If you based the input data on old data that would be similar to where everyone would've placed in the final standings if the league had of played out then it would be a smoother representation of standing as I pointed out in my previous posting. By far it wouldn't be perfect at all but it certainly would make for a realistic outcome instead of rotating around team groupings.

 

[dogfan]

The IceDogs hope they change the draft order. They don't have a first in the 2021 draft. If the order stayed the same they would lose the second overall pick. That would look awful.
With no season, would the league back up the sanctions one season to 2022?
Another avenue would be to not have a draft and have a massive free agent week. I know it's a can of worms the league wouldn't want to open (I think it's the basis of a lawsuit) but it would be fun to watch.

 

[geo105]

I find it ironic that should there be an OHL season body contact would be forbidden by the sports minister, but not imposed on the NHL. Obviously money talks.

 

[Otto]

The IceDogs hope they change the draft order. They don't have a first in the 2021 draft. If the order stayed the same they would lose the second overall pick. That would look awful.
With no season, would the league back up the sanctions one season to 2022?
Another avenue would be to not have a draft and have a massive free agent week. I know it's a can of worms the league wouldn't want to open (I think it's the basis of a lawsuit) but it would be fun to watch.

The sanctions won't be backed up.. even if there is no season there will be a draft

 

[Otto]

I find it ironic that should there be an OHL season body contact would be forbidden by the sports minister, but not imposed on the NHL. Obviously money talks.

Way to early to speculate on that (also off topic.. don't think the Mods want us to get into that again)

 

[OMG67]

I find it ironic that should there be an OHL season body contact would be forbidden by the sports minister, but not imposed on the NHL. Obviously money talks.

Each league will likely have a different set of SOPs that dictate the level of contact allowed. I believe the NHL will have a much tighter reign on the players and their movements than the OHL will have. Plus, I doubt testing will be anywhere near as frequent in the OHL.

I am not sure you can simply draw a comparison as easy as that.

Besides, the appication of that directive is somewhat grey. Earlier this fall, in the lower junior leagues operating, contact was allowed but not extended presence contact. So even though full on hitting wasn't allowed, they still were able to do the other 95% of normal hockey contact.

 

[foghorn]

Opinion | Latest shutdown surely dooms OHL season

 

[PuckStop75]

With an entire season off teams at both ends of the spectrum have lost out. Top end teams who hold draft picks didn’t use them to push and bottom end teams didn’t clean house for picks. Easy solution is to put all 20 teams names in a hat, and pull them for pick order in the 1st round and then snake the draft. After the 1st round most teams don’t hold their own picks anyways. So it becomes about as random as it can be, favours no one. Allow trades up to the draft, and include this years 1st rounders so teams can deal to suit their team composition.

 

[OMG67]

With an entire season off teams at both ends of the spectrum have lost out. Top end teams who hold draft picks didn’t use them to push and bottom end teams didn’t clean house for picks. Easy solution is to put all 20 teams names in a hat, and pull them for pick order in the 1st round and then snake the draft. After the 1st round most teams don’t hold their own picks anyways. So it becomes about as random as it can be, favours no one. Allow trades up to the draft, and include this years 1st rounders so teams can deal to suit their team composition.

I like the idea of being able to trade first round picks. But the picks only, not the players picked in the first round (other than the trade window).

 

[Otto]

Opinion | Latest shutdown surely dooms OHL season

The author is actually on to something here. Forget a season of any kind.. get a bunch of teams of 18,19,20 year olds and play a round robin tournament with the winner taking the Memorial Cup. Have it coincide with the combine and the draft.

It can be hosted anywhere, players can bubble and the NHL can foot the bill.

 

[OHLTG]

The author is actually on to something here. Forget a season of any kind.. get a bunch of teams of 18,19,20 year olds and play a round robin tournament with the winner taking the Memorial Cup. Have it coincide with the combine and the draft.

It can be hosted anywhere, players can bubble and the NHL can foot the bill.

OHL Top Prospects game - East v. West. As many draft eligibles as possible. Make it a six-game series like the Russian Super Series, play it over a few weeks or something.

 

[Otto]

OHL Top Prospects game - East v. West. As many draft eligibles as possible. Make it a six-game series like the Russian Super Series, play it over a few weeks or something.

That's only going to give you 40ish players.. and if the CHL wants to do it right, they'll open it up so some older guys can showcase to earn minor league deals. I guess if they are not having the College guys our Euros they could do maybe 4-6 teams

 

[OHLTG]

That's only going to give you 40ish players.. and if the CHL wants to do it right, they'll open it up so some older guys can showcase to earn minor league deals. I guess if they are not having the College guys our Euros they could do maybe 4-6 teams

One team of Draft Eligibles, one team of OAs, one team of rookies... per conference lol

 

[RayzorIsDull]

I like the idea of being able to trade first round picks. But the picks only, not the players picked in the first round (other than the trade window).

I have always wanted something like that. Even if you made it so you can't trade consecutive years of 1st round picks I think you would still have more movement which would be good.

 

[OMG67]

I have always wanted something like that. Even if you made it so you can't trade consecutive years of 1st round picks I think you would still have more movement which would be good.

It would cut back on the need to trade five 2nds! It has gotten so bad with draft pick trades. You don’t see that many 2nd rounders in trades in the QMJHL. They trade 1st rounders for the blockbusters and things seem a little more normal.

 

[dirty12]

It would cut back on the need to trade five 2nds! It has gotten so bad with draft pick trades. You don’t see that many 2nd rounders in trades in the QMJHL. They trade 1st rounders for the blockbusters and things seem a little more normal.

This compares to Tomasino trade, imo.
Blockbuster trade in the QMJHL involving Canadian world junior champion | TradeRumours.com