What would happen if there is no OHL season?

[LDN]

Hello All,

Hope you are all staying safe and healthy.

What would happen if OHL didn't happen for the 2020-2021 season at all? What would happen for the draft for the OHL and all the potential players who are looking to get drafted to the NHL ?

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[Otto]

Scouts don't just start watching these guys in their draft year. They have a pretty good idea who the top 20 are.. after that it's all a crapshoot anyway

 

[rangersblues]

NHL would hold its draft after the Stanley Cup as usual. If the OHL doesn't have a season my guess is they would do the same thing as the NHL did in 2005 when they had a lockout. That is do a snake draft with a lottery for who picks from 1-20.

 

[windsor7]

Everyone would save money that they could use on other things.
No big deal.

 

[OHLTG]

There are already prospects lists out there and I'd imagine scouts are finding ways to get video/info. Given COVID has been around for nearly a year (wow!), there's likely been plenty of preparation in case this scenario happened.

I miss hockey, too, but have mentally prepared myself to not see it return until Sept 2021.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Everyone would save money that they could use on other things.
No big deal.

 

[OMG67]

1 - NHL Draft. Nothing changes. Scouts would simply have less information on players not playing this season.
2 - OHL draft. I assume some sort of lottery. Same situation with scouting.
3 - Financial. The impacts will be huge. The OHL will require a significant return to play marketting plan. They'll need to recapture a fanbase. They will struggle with both perception of safety as well as motivation. I think many parents will still be a little apprehensive about stadium style activities next winter until they truely feel safe. You'll definitely see a significant reduction in attendance.
4 - Structure. I'd seriously consider cost cutting measures as much as possible. I know the goal would be a return to normal but I am not sure it would be viable. I think we will see a significant delay in the start of the season. Probably a good 4-6 weeks.

 

[dirty12]

Everyone would save money that they could use on other things.
No big deal.

Based solely from volume of food delivery commercials, I’d guess entertainment $ has been re-allocated

 

[dirty12]

NHL would hold its draft after the Stanley Cup as usual. If the OHL doesn't have a season my guess is they would do the same thing as the NHL did in 2005 when they had a lockout. That is do a snake draft with a lottery for who picks from 1-20.

doubt that would sit well with teams at the bottom of last season’s standings and/or holding the top 2nd round picks, particularly NB having their own and Sania’s 2nd pick. A weighted lottery seems more plausible.

 

[OMG67]

doubt that would sit well with teams at the bottom of last season’s standings and/or holding the top 2nd round picks, particularly NB having their own and Sania’s 2nd pick. A weighted lottery seems more plausible.

I was thinking the same thing but how do you weight it and what criteria do you use?
Junior hockey goes in cycles. Teams trade at deadline to load up knowing they are a toilet team the following year and vice versa.
Teams also have a plan to execute this season. A team like Oshawa was projected to be the top team but if you use last years standings, they are relatively a middle of pack team.
I think, under these circumstances, I doubt that the governors would agree to a weighted draft based on previous performance.

 

[Otto]

As a point of reference, here is how the 2005 NHL draft worked

2005 NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia

I think they may have to go with a random draw and then snake it.

 

[dirty12]

I was thinking the same thing but how do you weight it and what criteria do you use?
Junior hockey goes in cycles. Teams trade at deadline to load up knowing they are a toilet team the following year and vice versa.
Teams also have a plan to execute this season. A team like Oshawa was projected to be the top team but if you use last years standings, they are relatively a middle of pack team.
I think, under these circumstances, I doubt that the governors would agree to a weighted draft based on previous performance.

No doubt there’s no perfect solution. No season for Miss wrecks their cycle. Flint has something like 15-1sts, 2nds, imports born 2000-01 going to waste. Sudbury stands to lose multiple 2, 4, 5 conditional picks if no season. There’s likely a sob story for every team.
Right or wrong, I think a weighted lottery 20-1 based on last standing is fairest. NB would have ~10% chance @1, Ottawa ~1%

 

[AttackSound]

1 - NHL Draft. Nothing changes. Scouts would simply have less information on players not playing this season.
2 - OHL draft. I assume some sort of lottery. Same situation with scouting.
3 - Financial. The impacts will be huge. The OHL will require a significant return to play marketting plan. They'll need to recapture a fanbase. They will struggle with both perception of safety as well as motivation. I think many parents will still be a little apprehensive about stadium style activities next winter until they truely feel safe. You'll definitely see a significant reduction in attendance.
4 - Structure. I'd seriously consider cost cutting measures as much as possible. I know the goal would be a return to normal but I am not sure it would be viable. I think we will see a significant delay in the start of the season. Probably a good 4-6 weeks.

There are certainly hurdles that are still on the horizon that is for sure.

As to your 3rd and 4th points, The financial impacts will definite challange, make no mistake the risks and decisions involved will be massive for teams. But lets look at this in a way that is very open-ended here.

The OHL draft becoming a lottery wouldn't be the worst thing for the league in a realistic perspective it would add some interesting spins on the current system teams who used to be guaranteed top picks wouldn't have those locks in the draft and would make draft pick trades much more strategic for teams trying to rebuild.

As for the financial side of the OHL there really wouldn't have to be much change to what is done now yes there will have to be different ways that teams handle fans experiences and players safety but looking from a optimistic view on this teams have an abundance of time to work out protocols and plans for everyone's safety.

These issues can be done on priority basis, for example fans entering and exiting the buildings the QMJHL had already solved that issue early on when their limited return started in where we saw Q teams stagger fans into buildings via specific entrances the OHL could adapt a similar type protocol unique to each teams building for example the Bayshore in Owen Sound has very limited entrances and because of this issue the team could stagger the fans in specific entrances at certain times and on certain days for weekday games fans who sit in the furthest sections from the buildings entrances/exits would be asked to arrive between a time window so say for a 7 pm start time the earliest the doors would open would be 5:30 giving fans from 5:30 to say 6 to arrive at the building and those who are seated closer to those entrances and exits between 6 and 6:30 of course this idea would be solely based on day and game times as well as not every game and team would play at the same times on the same days.

As for game-day amenities teams could adapt to some of what they have in place now for shopping. Fans who would be interested in making purchases could either call or place online orders prior to game day to be picked up, as for concession stands there are teams like the Ottawa 67's who use seat services for specific sections could be used for those STH early bird ticket holders which would eliminate the congestion at concession stands in buildings.

Teams will really just have to plan alternative ways and get creative is all, and this is something that the OHL will have to consider moving forward. Maybe the OHL decides to have a season where the increase the number of games from 68 to close to what the NHL has like an 80 game schedule for the regular season the problem is with the increase of games means that players have more chances of getting injured is the real issue.

Until we see where everything shakes out though we really can only speculate on when the league starts back up on what and how the league will handle next season and beyond.

Lots to consider and for the league to discuss before things get going again...

 

[Teflon]

My info says they won’t have a season unless the border opens. That doesn’t look possible to even get a short season in. My belief is we won’t have a season at all. The ohl draft isn’t going to please anyone. That said I’m not sure why you couldn’t use the previous years rankings. No one made steps forward this year. Most players sat. Every team will lose players. No one got much better or worse. The chance a good team gets a high pick with some kind of lottery will create many more problems.

 

[OHLTG]

My info says they won’t have a season unless the border opens. That doesn’t look possible to even get a short season in. My belief is we won’t have a season at all. The ohl draft isn’t going to please anyone. That said I’m not sure why you couldn’t use the previous years rankings. No one made steps forward this year. Most players sat. Every team will lose players. No one got much better or worse. The chance a good team gets a high pick with some kind of lottery will create many more problems.

IF this season doesn't happen, this is the easiest way. Nobody gained. Nobody lost. It'll be like 2020-21 wasn't even an option.

 

[AttackSound]

My info says they won’t have a season unless the border opens. That doesn’t look possible to even get a short season in. My belief is we won’t have a season at all. The ohl draft isn’t going to please anyone. That said I’m not sure why you couldn’t use the previous years rankings. No one made steps forward this year. Most players sat. Every team will lose players. No one got much better or worse. The chance a good team gets a high pick with some kind of lottery will create many more problems.

How could that be the 4 worst teams in the league were at least 6 points back of the last playoff clinching team. All the league would have to do is take there winning percentage an calculate out that on what would've been a full 68 game schedule if there were teams in positions where the points and winning percentage were close then you go hrad-tohead matchups and if they remained evenly matched then all they'd have to do is calculate the winning percentage against the opponent that they never played whomever had the higher winning percentage would likely be the winner of those unplayed games. Which in this case you would only have to lottery 4 teams, North Bay, Niagara, Kingston and Sarnia and calculate how many point they would've finished with if they would've played those remaining games base it off the winning percentages that each team had and there you go you'd have your draft order pretty easily.

The worst percentages would pick higher than a higher winning percentage team. Then you'd have the lottery winner, besides the NHL has done a draft lottery for years now and has no problems and they have far a well more complex calculations to make then the OHL's 20 teams combined.

 

[Otto]

PS5 NHL 21 sim a complete 2020/21 season and take the draft order from that

 

[OMG67]

IF this season doesn't happen, this is the easiest way. Nobody gained. Nobody lost. It'll be like 2020-21 wasn't even an option.

Excet those that tanked get two high first round picks. Those that pushed in get two late picks. I cannot see teams agreeing to this at all.

If we look at it subjectively, a team like Kingston gets the 3rd pick two years in a row. Very little chance with their maturing roster that would happen.

I'm ok with a weighted lottery, I guess. But to essentially allow the same team to draft first overall in back to back years is not fair, no matter how you look at it.

Using one single season and slotting a draft two years in a row off the same results is not ideal.

 

[OMG67]

PS5 NHL 21 sim a complete 2020/21 season and take the draft order from that

Hahahahaha.

I vote for this!

 

[OHLTG]

Excet those that tanked get two high first round picks. Those that pushed in get two late picks. I cannot see teams agreeing to this at all.

If we look at it subjectively, a team like Kingston gets the 3rd pick two years in a row. Very little chance with their maturing roster that would happen.

I'm ok with a weighted lottery, I guess. But to essentially allow the same team to draft first overall in back to back years is not fair, no matter how you look at it.

Using one single season and slotting a draft two years in a row off the same results is not ideal.

I'm not sure there's one way you'll get all 20 teams to agree to. In theory, you could do something like the NHL does in terms of their lottery. Worst team gets 20 balls, best team gets one. Throw all the balls into a machine and pick 1-20. Again, though, you could have a 2019-20 contender slide into the first overall pick and it'll anger the lower fans.

 

[Teflon]

You won’t get agreement. Branch has proven he’s ok with telling rather than asking. Any lottery leaves speculation and a chance for unfair accusation. That first pick you guys are all talking about is likely a kid that didn’t play much if at all. This junior draft will be the biggest roll of the dice you’ve ever seen! Teams with strong scouting and deep pockets may not have that advantage either. Kids change a ton in every way at this age. There will be steals and there’s gonna be duds from top to bottom. I could go on about how kids and their parents “ help” draft status. All that’s out the window as well. Thought about it a fair bit and I think I’d be ok with the way I laid it out.

 

[OHLTG]

Since I don't see it here, the border closure was extended until at least Feb. 21.

 

[windsor7]

Since I don't see it here, the border closure was extended until at least Feb. 21.

At least...
Dont see it opening next month either. Just a guess.

 

[OMG67]

At least...
Dont see it opening next month either. Just a guess.

I think that's because everyone here understands the border won't open until at least mid-summer so it isn't worth the the time to discuss.

 

[OMG67]

Regarding the draft, they cannot simply duplicate the draft order from the 2020 draft. It isn't fair in any way.

If you weight the draft based on performance, you have to at least take multiple seasons into consideration to help at least balance it in a manner that respects the cyclical performace of junior hockey. For example, if tephey did a total points accrued the past 4 seasons, at least that would account for what would be considered a full cycle. The team with the lowest point total over the last 4 seasons gets the first pick. I'd be ok with that sort of scenario. It would at least be more fair than using one season performance from two seasons ago.