Hart. You can get into 5 on 5 play or how good Kucherov's team is or advanced stats that the voters won't care about, but there is no precedent of a forward being outscored by more than 25 points in a relatively healthy season (only missed three games) and winning the Hart Trophy dating all the way back to 1991. Since 1996, usually when a forward wins the Hart and his team is in the playoffs, he is also the Art Ross winner.
Hart winners since 1991:
2018: Taylor Hall - trailed the Art Ross winner by 15 points (McDavid's team missed the playoffs)
2017: Connor McDavid - won Art Ross and Pearson
2016: Patrick Kane - won Art Ross and Pearson
2015: Carey Price - goaltender
2014: Sidney Crosby - won Art Ross and Pearson
2013: Alex Ovechkin - won Rocket Richard and trailed Art Ross winner (St. Louis) by four points
2012: Evgeni Malkin - won Art Ross and Pearson
2011: Corey Perry - won Rocket Richard and trailed Art Ross winner (Daniel Sedin) by six points
2010: Henrik Sedin - won Art Ross
2009: Alex Ovechkin - won Rocket Richard and Pearson and trailed Art Ross winner (Malkin) by three points
2008: Alex Ovechkin - won Art Ross, Rocket Richard and Pearson
2007: Sidney Crosby - won Art Ross and Pearson
2006: Joe Thornton - won Art Ross
2004: Martin St. Louis - won Art Ross and Pearson
2003: Peter Forsberg - won Art Ross
2002: Carey Price - goaltender
2001: Joe Sakic - won Pearson and trailed Art Ross winner (Jagr) by three points
2000: Chris Pronger - defenseman
1999: Jaromir Jagr - won Art Ross and Pearson
1998: Dominik Hasek - goaltender
1997: Dominik Hasek - goaltender
1996: Mario Lemieux - won Art Ross and Pearson
1995: Eric Lindros - won Pearson and tied Art Ross winner (Jagr) in points but lost Art Ross due to tie-breaker
1994: Sergei Fedorov - won Pearson and Selke and trailed Art Ross winner (Gretzky) by ten points (Gretzky's team missed the playoffs)
1993: Mario Lemieux - won the Art Ross and Pearson
1992: Mark Messier - won Pearson and trailed Art Ross winner (Lemieux) by 24 points
1991: Brett Hull - won Pearson and led the NHL in goals (with 86 goals) and trailed Art Ross winner (Gretzky) by 31 points
If I was a Penguins fan, I'd just want him to end up a finalist because if he actually gets the Hart, the majority is going to consider it an extremely tainted win and start the narrative that the hockey media panders to Crosby (whether it's right or wrong, that's what will happen). It will be like what happened with Toews when he was considered a hockey media darling.