Speculation: What top 4D could Anders Lee return?

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Sidney the Kidney

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I think one thing you have to be careful about is comparing shooting percentages to guys who played in the 80s. It seemed like almost any decent scorer, even guys who shot primarily from long range, shot near 20% in the 80s.
 
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72hockey guy

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Your wrong lol

Hey would you take Carl Gunnerson, and a 3rd for LEE
and im not wrong, cmon colt you know better. read the data dont follow easton blindly, when hes wrong. youre way too intelligent for that

I posted 7 other players who played the same style as Lee who consistently had Shot percentages over 20% so its just as likely that Lees shot percentage could go up.

Easton deliberately framed his answer to mislead, by using all players. he deliberately avoided using like kind players for a reason. to get the preconceived answer he wished.


you and i both know not all players are the same
 

72hockey guy

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I think one thing you have to be careful about is comparing shooting percentages to guys who played in the 80s. It seemed like almost any decent scorer, even guys who shot primarily from long range, shot near 20% in the 80s.
its simply not true though sid, shooting percentages were high because the scoring was higher

those who made their livings at the front of the net have always had higher shot percentages than those who basically sniped from further away

the only reason people dont realize it is that there are fewer players like Lee now, the size of contracts today make players much more cognizant of injuries and playing in tight puts you at greater risk

thats the main reason we have more perimeter players today. contracts. why put your next big contract in jeopardy
 
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Sidney the Kidney

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its simply not true though sid, shooting percentages were high because the scoring was higher

those who made their livings at the front of the net have always had higher shot percentages than those who basically sniped from further away

Right. But even those guys, as a whole, didn't shoot as high as the 80s guys.

Look at a guy like Nieuwendyk. While it's true he always had a high shooting percentage, it did drop quite a bit outside of the 80s/early 90s. He was shooting over 20% during the 80s/early 90s, but dropped into the 16-17% range for most of the 90s and beyond.
 

Colt55

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and im not wrong, cmon colt you know better. read the data dont follow easton blindly, when hes wrong. youre way too intelligent for that

I posted 7 other players who played the same style as Lee who consistently had Shot percentages over 20% so its just as likely that Lees shot percentage could go up.

Easton deliberately framed his answer to mislead, by using all players. he deliberately avoided using like kind players for a reason. to get the preconceived answer he wished.


you and i both know not all players are the same
I haveread this entire thread. I do not believe at 27 all of a sudden lee is a 40 goal scorer. I think he had a career year and he will fall back to earth. His shooting% is high compared to others. His style of play in dirty areas ages the player. I don't for one minute, think he is on the same byielding let alone boat as tarasenko. So I side with easton. I have the whole time and you haven't proven anything. Nothing personal but when you try to insult my intelligence because I disagree with u ... you kind start to sound like hilarious Clinton lol
 
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72hockey guy

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Right. But even those guys, as a whole, didn't shoot as high as the 80s guys.

Look at a guy like Nieuwendyk. While it's true he always had a high shooting percentage, it did drop quite a bit outside of the 80s/early 90s. He was shooting over 20% during the 80s/early 90s, but dropped into the 16-17% range for most of the 90s and beyond.
but that coincided with lower scoring games. the guys I selected all played as lee does and they werent just at 18% like Lee is, they were at 25-27 percent in many cases so even if you adjust for scoring trends they still were comfortably above lee.

Tarasenko is at 10% Lee will never go that low. why? because his Playing style wont let him. the moment he cant handle the pounding inside his career is likely over
 

72hockey guy

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I haveread this entire thread. I do not believe at 27 all of a sudden lee is a 40 goal scorer. I think he had a career year and he will fall back to earth. His shooting% is high compared to others. His style of play in dirty areas ages the player. I don't for one minute, think he is on the same byielding let alone boat as tarasenko. So I side with easton. I have the whole time and you haven't proven anything. Nothing personal but when you try to insult my intelligence because I disagree with u ... you kind start to sound like hilarious Clinton lol

I never said lee is better than tarasenko, not once and you still dont get the point, they are different style players, all Ive said is the difference in style leads to the higher shot percentage.

I chastised easton because he framed the data using all players instead of like kind players
 

EastonBlues22

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Ok yeah I can agree that I wouldn't expect him to end up at 18.5% for the next five years. Of course it's more likely he settles into the 16-17% range, but that would still mean he's scoring like 35 goals a year. Don't really get why that's worth noting. You made it seem like you thought the last two seasons were flukish and he'd be back to being a 15-20 goal scorer next season.
No.

My thrust of my original post was that his next contract was going to be risky. He's going to command a lot given his recent numbers, assuming he doesn't have a disaster of a year next year (and I don't think he will). I then discussed why I thought he was a risk, and commented that I hope my team wasn't the one that took the gamble.

That's subsequently been translated into a whole host of things that I've never actually said, and twisted into a whole host of motivations that I never had.
 
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EastonBlues22

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I'm passionate about math, which most of this discussion has ultimately been about, not Lee.

I'm not trashing Lee, regardless of how many times you insist that I am.

"I'm not trashing Lee, I'm just obsessively responding to every Islander fan that dare defend him from my predictions of regression". Stop playing the victim.
I left this thread a long time ago. I only returned because a certain poster was repeatedly dropping my name in all his posts, and basically taking a big crap over everything I said...with most of it being incorrect, or an outright misrepresentation. I can find a dozen quotes, easy, of him doing that very thing...a lot of it pretty personal. Most reasonable people would say that someone who is on the receiving of personal attacks is a victim, so...

I'm perfectly happy to leave again, but if people keep dragging my posts through the mud, it's my right to defend them. I said that I was happy to agree to disagree, yet here you are engaging me again. If you want me to leave again, stop engaging me, stop trashing my posts, and agree to disagree like a reasonable adult should be able to do.

It's clear you don't watch enough Anders Lee hockey to truly understand why his numbers are so high. You've flat out ignored every single point made by Islander fans in regard to why your "math" is incorrect. We've told you time and time and time and time again why you're only presenting a half-baked argument, and time and time and time and time again you retreat back to the same position:
Bull**** I've seen probably close to a hundred games of Anders Lee over the last several years. I know exactly what sort of player he is.

I'm not ignoring any of your points. I don't agree with them for a whole host of reasons, which I've explained, and which you don't agree with. Agree to disagree.

So, you can either listen to people who've watched Anders Lee blossom from bottom-6er to top line power forward, or you can stubbornly insist you've always had it right from the very beginning and absolutely nobody knows more about Anders Lee than you do. Because other players don't have a shooting percentage that high.
Get down off your high hill, King of the Straw Man. I've never said that I know more about Lee than anyone else. I've never said that my opinion is the only valid opinion. Once again, you're saying implying that my position is an absolute one when it's not. Etc.

Every post you make, you accuse me of a number of things I've never actually said. Stop putting words in my mouth, and I'll stop correcting you.
 
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EastonBlues22

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and im not wrong, cmon colt you know better. read the data dont follow easton blindly, when hes wrong. youre way too intelligent for that

I posted 7 other players who played the same style as Lee who consistently had Shot percentages over 20% so its just as likely that Lees shot percentage could go up.

Easton deliberately framed his answer to mislead, by using all players. he deliberately avoided using like kind players for a reason. to get the preconceived answer he wished.


you and i both know not all players are the same
Repeating it, again and again, doesn't make it true.

It's also a rich accusation, since your "evidence" was you going out and literally looking for people who did sustain a high shooting percentage to show that Lee could as well.

Talk about looking for evidence to support a preconceived answer. Sheesh.
 
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EastonBlues22

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You've presented various different versions of writing it off to luck without actually having to call it as such. Historically, players that play the same style HAVE maintained similarly high shooting percentages such as Mark Parrish, Dino Ciccerelli, Tim Kerr, Gary Roberts, Paul Maclean, Luc Robitaille, Cam Neely, Joe Nieuwendyk and on and on. These guys all retired with SH% at or above 17, some as high as 21+.
Ciccarelli retired at 16.4% and Robitaille at 16.9%, so no, they didn't all retire with a SH% at or above 17%. Also, we're shifting the goalposts because 17% is a far cry from 18.5%. If you don't believe me, look at the numbers for how many people reach either goal nowadays any given season.

I listed a whole host of names earlier of guys that played a similar style that didn't, either, since we are stuck on cherry-picking case studies. Also, I did say that it was rare historically, not unprecedented. I even broke down the percentages of the people who had and gave a big old list of names.

Ironic that we're falling back to what people have done historically, mostly in eras with inflated shooting percentages, to justify the present in spite of me receiving a lot of push back in this thread for discussing players of different eras. Could we be resorting to that because there's no real justification for it in the climate of the current NHL?

Seems pretty convenient that it's ok when Islanders fans do it, but not when I do it.
 
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CodeE

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I left this thread a long time ago. I only returned because a certain poster was repeatedly dropping my name in all his posts, and basically taking a big crap over everything I said...with most of it being incorrect, or an outright misrepresentation. I can find a dozen quotes, easy, of him doing that very thing...a lot of it pretty personal. Most reasonable people would say that someone who is on the receiving of personal attacks is a victim, so...

I'm perfectly happy to leave again, but if people keep dragging my posts through the mud, it's my right to defend them. I said that I was happy to agree to disagree, yet here you are engaging me again. If you want me to leave again, stop engaging me, stop trashing my posts, and agree to disagree like a reasonable adult should be able to do.


Bull**** I've seen probably close to a hundred games of Anders Lee over the last several years. I know exactly what sort of player he is.

I'm not ignoring any of your points. I don't agree with them for a whole host of reasons, which I've explained, and which you don't agree with. Agree to disagree.


Get down off your high hill, King of the Straw Man. I've never said that I know more about Lee than anyone else. I've never said that my opinion is the only valid opinion. Etc.

Every post you make, you accuse me of a number of things I've never actually said. Stop putting words in my mouth, and I'll stop correcting you.

For someone so upset with personal attacks, you sure enjoy calling me "King of the Straw Man"

You made a poor argument. The many reasons as to why it's a poor argument have been explained. Stats have been used, zone charts, analogies, etc. By your own words, you "don't agree", and choose not to address them.

If you want to alter that argument, considering all the factors me and other Islander fans are talking about, well I'd love to hear version 2.0 of "Why Anders Lee will Regress". If you once again want to go back to version 1.0, "his numbers are unsustainable because other NHL players", you've again failed to grasp anything outside your immediate bubble.

Funny how no Rangers, Devils, Penguins, Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, or Caps fans have decided to agree whole-heartedly with what you're saying. Just a small handful of Blues fans who say Anders Lee is worth Carl Gunnarsson or Jay Bouwmeester and unironically use the phrase "Hilarious Clinton" instead of "Hillary Clinton". Our division rivals have seen enough of Lee to respect him, the same way I'm not going to go around posting negatively about guys like Provorov, Weresnki, Aho, or Guentzel.

Furthermore, I know for a fact the Islanders are not a very exciting team to watch. We don't get the Stadium Series games, the NBCSN games. This year we got a few more eyes because people wanted to watch the Barzal show, but spare me the "I've seen TONS of Islander games actually I'm an expert on them!" I'm not watching very many Coyotes or Panthers games to give myself the credentials to call Sasha Barkov overrated, and there's no reason for a Blues fan to watch one third of Anders Lee's career (he's only had 343 career games), on top of Blues games, and other NHL games, and other shows, and other life obligations. U

The problem is you feel you not only have the right to post negatively about Lee, (trash Lee? criticize Lee? Whatever soft term you wanna use) but then get all huffy and offended when your poor argument gets torn to pieces. Again I refer you to the comic:

Ji0IH1U.jpg


Nobody's asking you to strongly defend your criticisms of Anders Lee

Your criticisms of Anders Lee serve no purpose and only make Islander fans mock the flimsiness of your arguments

If you want to continue to stick around and "criticize", be prepared to be "criticized" back.
 
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Em etah Eh

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It's funny to me how at the beginning of this thread you said something along the lines of Easton being a fair/decent poster. I don't remember the exact words and don't feel like digging through the thread for them. Now here we are, pages and pages later and you are making personal attack, after personal attack. Maybe the truth in all of this, is that Easton is still a fair/decent poster, and you just happen to disagree on a certain topic tied to a player on your favorite team. If he had posted analysis on a Calgary player and not an Islanders player your opinion of him would still be the same. Now all of a sudden he's HF's Satan or something...
 
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EastonBlues22

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I left this thread a long time ago. I only returned because a certain poster was repeatedly dropping my name in all his posts, and basically taking a big crap over everything I said...with most of it being incorrect, or an outright misrepresentation. I can find a dozen quotes, easy, of him doing that very thing...a lot of it pretty personal. Most reasonable people would say that someone who is on the receiving of personal attacks is a victim, so...

I'm perfectly happy to leave again, but if people keep dragging my posts through the mud, it's my right to defend them. I said that I was happy to agree to disagree, yet here you are engaging me again. If you want me to leave again, stop engaging me, stop trashing my posts, and agree to disagree like a reasonable adult should be able to do.


Bull**** I've seen probably close to a hundred games of Anders Lee over the last several years. I know exactly what sort of player he is.

I'm not ignoring any of your points. I don't agree with them for a whole host of reasons, which I've explained, and which you don't agree with. Agree to disagree.


Get down off your high hill, King of the Straw Man. I've never said that I know more about Lee than anyone else. I've never said that my opinion is the only valid opinion. Etc.

Every post you make, you accuse me of a number of things I've never actually said. Stop putting words in my mouth, and I'll stop correcting you.
CodeE said:
For someone so upset with personal attacks, you sure enjoy calling me "King of the Straw Man".
You keep refuting positions that I've never taken, but that you continue to attribute to me, in defense of your own position. That's the definition of a straw-man, no? There's, what, seven such examples in just your last two posts? I keep point them out. You keep doing it anyway.

You made a poor argument. The many reasons as to why it's a poor argument have been explained. Stats have been used, zone charts, analogies, etc. By your own words, you "don't agree", and choose not to address them.
Not accurate. You're conflating agreement with addressing. I've explained exactly why I don't think that cherry-picked case studies is a convincing argument, and I've specifically discussed the heat zone map. I've addressed them both in depth. They have not been ignored, but I do not agree with them.

If you want to alter that argument, considering all the factors me and other Islander fans are talking about, well I'd love to hear version 2.0 of "Why Anders Lee will Regress". If you once again want to go back to version 1.0, "his numbers are unsustainable because other NHL players", you've again failed to grasp anything outside your immediate bubble.
You accuse me of "failing to grasp anything outside [my] immediate bubble" because I disagree with your arguments, or do not find them compelling for one reason or another. How is what you're doing with regards to my arguments any different? Seems like a pot calling the kettle black situation to me.

Funny how no Rangers, Devils, Penguins, Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes, or Caps fans have decided to agree whole-heartedly with what you're saying. Just a small handful of Blues fans who say Anders Lee is worth Carl Gunnarsson or Jay Bouwmeester and unironically use the phrase "Hilarious Clinton" instead of "Hillary Clinton". Our division rivals have seen enough of Lee to respect him, the same way I'm not going to go around posting negatively about guys like Provorov, Weresnki, Aho, or Guentzel.
The validity/quality of an argument is in no way dependent on whether or not it receives rave reviews from the masses.

You imply that I don't respect Lee. That's untrue, as I've point out a number of times before. You just seem incapable of perceiving this discussion as anything other than an "attack" on him.

Furthermore, I know for a fact the Islanders are not a very exciting team to watch. We don't get the Stadium Series games, the NBCSN games. This year we got a few more eyes because people wanted to watch the Barzal show, but spare me the "I've seen TONS of Islander games actually I'm an expert on them!" I'm not watching very many Coyotes or Panthers games to give myself the credentials to call Sasha Barkov overrated, and there's no reason for a Blues fan to watch one third of Anders Lee's career (he's only had 343 career games), on top of Blues games, and other NHL games, and other shows, and other life obligations.
I never claimed to be an "expert" on them (man, there are so very many of these misrepresentations in your posts), nor am I using that "expertise" as some sort of one-up or prop for my opinions.

I only said that I was very familiar with Anders Lee because people were saying that I was not familiar with his style/haven't seen him play...and that's just flat-out wrong.

Sure, I don't tune in every night, but that's hardly required to be familiar with a player's style. Heck, anyone paying attention during even a single playoff series is probably going to have at least a passing familiarity of the varying styles for any notable individual players on the other team. That's a mere 4-7 games. After just 10-20 games of paying attention, one should have a pretty darn good idea of what a player's about.

I've seen a good deal more games of Lee than that over the last four years. Not nearly as many games as an Islanders fan, but more than enough to know how Lee plays the game and contributes to the offense.

I'm not sure why you're saying that "it's a fact" that they are not enjoyable to watch, as if that could be a thing. I enjoy watching them a great deal.

The problem is you feel you not only have the right to post negatively about Lee, (trash Lee? criticize Lee? Whatever soft term you wanna use) but then get all huffy and offended when your poor argument gets torn to pieces. Again I refer you to the comic:
I absolutely have the right to post my opinion on this forum, whether you consider it to be "negative" or not.

I'm "huffy" because of posts like these:

Easton deliberately framed his answer to mislead, by using all players. he deliberately avoided using like kind players for a reason. to get the preconceived answer he wished.

Colt im not saying you should, im just pointing out that easton is making a bogus argumentw hich he knows is false on its face.

and just to be clear I never said lee was better than Tarasenko, but whay I did say was that eastons comparison was full of **** because their style of play is totally different and using "unsustainable" shot percentage on a player like Lee is ridiculous and eastonblues knew it.

...

as soon as easton brought him up he exposed himself and his agenda

only fools with an agenda like easton do that

Easton knew all that, and despite that he presented a deliberately misleading argument that was meant to obscure the truth , not only obscure the truth but to bury it.

...

why validate a flawed argument

Easton knew what he was doing now he must live with the consequences

...

easton knew what he did

thats what gets me, when even otherwise intelligent posters like Easton blues who i really respected before this, goes out of his way, to basically make a clearly bogus argument to knock Lee like He did.

believe what you want easton, at least now people know you were full of it
These are not constructive comments. They are personal, and (in conjunction with other parts of those posts) a misrepresentation of both my position and intent.

I'm pretty sure if I started slagging and misrepresenting you repeatedly, you would get "huffy" and respond as well. I mean, one could easily interpret your current tone as huffy and offended, and nobody was talking about you at all.

Nobody's asking you to strongly defend your criticisms of Anders Lee

Your criticisms of Anders Lee serve no purpose and only make Islander fans mock the flimsiness of your arguments

If you want to continue to stick around and "criticize", be prepared to be "criticized" back.
Nobody is asking you to "strongly defend" Lee from my opinions, either, and yet here you are.

I'm sticking around to correct those who continue to misrepresent me. Stop doing that, and I'll leave. Pretty simple.
 
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Colt55

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Exactly what they said when he scored 34 last year.
Pencil him in for 42, if he stays healthy.
Close thread.
hey he does it again then you proved us all wrong. Nothing wrong with that. Hey everyone thought parayko was a fluke, said he couldnt repeat his success then everyone was on board and wanting him. I get it, I really do. So we shall see.
 

CREW99AW

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Mar 12, 2002
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Yah, it was sarcasm. Since Gardiner is a consensus top 4D, and played like a bantam pylon tonight.
I had a discussion with Leaf fans 1-2 weeks ago about Gardiner ,telling them that they overrated Gardiner after one said he was a top pairing D.
They insisted his occasional brain farts were overblown :popcorn:
 
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CREW99AW

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hey he does it again then you proved us all wrong. Nothing wrong with that. Hey everyone thought parayko was a fluke, said he couldnt repeat his success then everyone was on board and wanting him. I get it, I really do. So we shall see.
I expect if Lee stays healthy , he will put up another very strong season and his critics will point out 2018-2019 was a contract yr and needs to be repeated in 2019-2020.

I have no problem with an opposing fan saying no thanks, do not like his lack of speed or contract status , but the comments about Tavares carrying Lee are irritating because they are not true. A huge thanks to the poster who did the legwork and posted the info that Tavares has only 13 primary assists on Lee's 40 goals.
 
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