What To Do With Ryan O’Reilly ?

[forsbergavs32]

Trade him at the deadline if the return is solid/overpayment. If not then talk to him and his agent and see if something can be worked out long term (no more than 6.75ish mil) if/when that's shot down, trade him at the draft.

I love ROR and want him here, IMO he'd be an integral piece to a Cup run...but as much as I want him here and love his game, he's just not worth 7+ mil for around 60 points and his defense especially when we have MacKinnon and EJ to re-sign next year and later on Bigras, Bleackley, Siemens, etc...if those guys are still here.

 

[Bonzai12]

sign him for $240M, 20 Years and then trade him to the Florida Panthers for all their prospects.

Win-Win

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I'd be willing to go as high as $7M to keep the guy around honestly. The ~60 Point Ryan Oreilly that we saw last year is worth $6.5M in my honest opinion. $7M is an overpayment of 0.5M I believe, but we've got Landeskog, Duchene, and Varlamov who all collectively are making like 3M less then what they could be. I think we can afford to overpay ROR by half a million. I honestly wouldnt even be surprised if by year 4 or 5 of this deal, its considered a bargin.



Its so hard to calculate the salary cap without Capgeek, but according to Hockeybuzz, right now we've got 32.7M in salary used for the 2016/17 season(When RORs new contract would kick in) on 5 Frwds(Duchene, Landy, Mitchell, McCleod, Iggy), 2 Dmen(Stuart, Holden), and 2 Goalies(Berra, Varly). That would leave us with roughly ~40M in space to fill out the roster. I think we could collectively allow 25M of that to go to ROR, Mack, Barrie, and EJ. 7 to ROR, 7 to EJ, 6 to Mack(Give him the same contract Duchene has) and 5M to Barrie. That would leave us with 15M to sign, 1 more Top 6 frwd, 5 depth forwards, 1 more Top 4 Dman(Bigras will be in the Top 4 by then, making 800K that year), and one #7 Dman.


I think its very much doable. The extra Top 6 guys gets say $4M, the Top 4 Dman gets ~5.5M, and the and then we've got around $5M left to sign the depth forwards, and the depth Dman.



I would also guess that theres a very good chance our 1st rounder selected this year is playing a role on this team by the start of the 2016/17 season as well. Whether it be Provorov, Roy, etc. on Defense, or Marner, Barzal, etc. of Forward. I would guess that if they dont make the roster right away, they probably make it after 1 more year in the minors developing.

We'd also have Bleackley who I would say makes the jump to the NHL then as well. So, we should have a couple of prospects who can fill out those depth roles for us.


All of this is of course assuming ROR is even remotely willing to sign with the Avs. For all we know he's simply going to refuse any contract with us, in which case this whole post is pointless. But for arguments sake, we could have a team structured like this in two years from now, and be looking fine salary wise. For arguments sake, I'm going to assume we draft a forward with our 1st in this years draft.



ROR($7M) - Duchene($6M) - UFA($4M)
Landy($5.57) - Mack($6M) - Iggy($5.5M)
UFA/1st(??) - Malkin(1.8M) - Everberg($1.5M)
Bleacks(0.9M) - UFA($1M) - McCleod($1M)
13th forward(0.6M)

Sekera($5.5M) - EJ($7M)
Bigras(0.9M) - Barre($5M)
Holden(1.65M) - Stuart($3.6M)

Varly($5.9M)
Berra($1.45M)



That would be a 71.33M roster. In 2 years the cap is probably gonna be around 72-73M if I were to guess.



Its definitely possible to keep ROR, and still bring in a solid Top 4 Dman. We'll definitely need a couple of our prospects to step up though. I'm very confident Bigras will do it as soon as next year, and with the 2015 draft being as strong as its touted, we should get a hell of a player with our 1st this year as well. The question will be whether or not a Siemens, Bleackley, Rendulic, Geertson, etc. are also able to step up and join the club in 1.5 years.

 

[AvsWraith]

I don't see ROR signing any long term deal with the way this year has gone. He's gonna finish below last year's stats, and he's not gonna win any awards. Sakic and Roy will no doubt use this year to try and get a better price, but we know how ROR and Newport will answer. So, if he plays for us next year, he will most likely going to crank it up in order to showcase himself for free agency. Gotta trade him, IMO.

 

[Freudian]

He's a UFA. His worth is what one of the 30 teams is willing to pay for him. He'll probably get $7M/year on a long term deal unless the cap goes down, then GMs probably will be a bit scared and he might only make $6M/year on his next deal.

I'm not sure he'll ever give great value for his cap hit but that's something that happens to many UFAs. I'm not sure Kane, Stamkos and Toews will either on their next deals.

 

[shadow1]

Try to sign him, fail, and trade him.

 

[Avelanche]

Wouldn't mind just extending him if he plays well the rest of the season.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Wouldn't mind just extending him if he plays well the rest of the season.

No one would mind re-signing him, but that's not the issue.

No way I'm giving O'Reilly 7M. He just doesn't score enough.

 

[Zodiac]

trade him for some decent D.

 

[dahrougem2]

I think Freudian brings up an interesting point. What if the cap is only at 68-69M next season? Is there REALLY a team out there willing to give O'Reilly $7M/season? Would it temper his demands a bit knowing the cap was down?

 

[Balthazar]

Considering that he's almost certainly going to test the UFA market, he'll hit his highest value at the trade deadline. Value will be significantly lower during the summer.

Get ROR now and you have him on contract for the rest of the year + the playoffs + next season.
Get ROR during the summer and you have him only for the next season.

They need to trade him soon.

 

[dahrougem2]

Considering that he's almost certainly going to test the UFA market, he'll hit his highest value at the trade deadline. Value will be significantly lower during the summer.

Get ROR now and you have him on contract for the rest of the year + the playoffs + next season.
Get ROR during the summer and you have him only for the next season.

They need to trade him soon.

It goes both ways for teams though. They'll get him for the rest of this year and presumably the playoffs, but they'll have to pay more. Some teams I'm sure will say "Well, if we wait until the summer, we only have him for 1 year but we don't have to give up nearly as much"

 

[FoppaForsberg*]

Need to trade him soon, but damn I really don't wanna see him go. Ever.

 

[StLAvsFan]

Should've let Calgary keep him and taken the draft picks.

 

[bohlmeister]

Should've let Calgary keep him and taken the draft picks.

Avs could have had Giordano, Backlund, and a pick. They should have taken that. Not those stupid draft picks.

 

[dahrougem2]

Avs could have had Giordano, Backlund, and a pick. They should have taken that. Not those stupid draft picks.

Not saying I advocate it since I think they made the right choice with MacKinnon, however: Monahan at #6, Burakovsky at #22, and Bigras at #28; then with our own 2nd round pick take Fucale at #32 and use him as a huge trading chip. Would be quite beneficial to this team.

I still take MacKinnon, though

 

[c0rn1]

If we get bozak @ 30% retained and gardiner we should trade him and elliot in a package.
Bozak would be a solid 3rd liner @ 3m who actually can take critical faceoffs and is defensively responsible. Gardiner has good chances to be a solid #4 D.

 

[FoppaForsberg*]

Not saying I advocate it since I think they made the right choice with MacKinnon, however: Monahan at #6, Burakovsky at #22, and Bigras at #28; then with our own 2nd round pick take Fucale at #32 and use him as a huge trading chip. Would be quite beneficial to this team.

I still take MacKinnon, though

I dunno.. That's a solid package.

 

[dahrougem2]

I dunno.. That's a solid package.

It is, but I think that Monahan at his best will top out exactly the same as ROR, maybe a bit more offensive. Burakovsky will be a 2nd line winger, and we already have Bigras. Fucale would be a nice trading chip to have though.

However, I have no doubts in my mind that MacKinnon will be a consistent 80-90-100 point player in this league for years to come. If scoring stays down like it is this year, he'll be an 80 point, top-10 scorer. If it goes up, I can see him creeping into the 90 point level and during his peak years eclipsing the 100 point mark.

 

[dahrougem2]

If we get bozak @ 30% retained and gardiner we should trade him and elliot in a package.
Bozak would be a solid 3rd liner @ 3m who actually can take critical faceoffs and is defensively responsible. Gardiner has good chances to be a solid #4 D.

For ROR?! Absolutely not

If that's the case, I'd much rather have Eller + Beaulieu. I don't like either deal, but the Habs' deal is better IMO. Bozak is not as good defensively as Eller, and I think Beaulieu will be better than Gardiner. I still say no to either deal, though.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

If we get bozak @ 30% retained and gardiner we should trade him and elliot in a package.
Bozak would be a solid 3rd liner @ 3m who actually can take critical faceoffs and is defensively responsible. Gardiner has good chances to be a solid #4 D.

I think we have bigger needs than 3rd line center. I mean Johnny Malkin is okay in 3rd line with McGinn. Although If this means Cliche and Talbot are out, I'm all for it, but I doubt Leafs actually pay any of Bozak's salary. His contract isn't that big anyway.

 

[StLAvsFan]

It is, but I think that Monahan at his best will top out exactly the same as ROR, maybe a bit more offensive. Burakovsky will be a 2nd line winger, and we already have Bigras. Fucale would be a nice trading chip to have though.

However, I have no doubts in my mind that MacKinnon will be a consistent 80-90-100 point player in this league for years to come. If scoring stays down like it is this year, he'll be an 80 point, top-10 scorer. If it goes up, I can see him creeping into the 90 point level and during his peak years eclipsing the 100 point mark.

I'd be happy just seeing Mack score goal #10 before the season ends to be honest with you. Not sure if he will either. LOL.

 

[dahrougem2]

I'd be happy just seeing Mack score goal #10 before the season ends to be honest with you. Not sure if he will either. LOL.

I think that this is good for him. He needs to learn what he can and cannot do in this league. I'm actually kind of glad, in a weird way, that our forwards are struggling this season, because it means they're going to have to figure out different ways to produce and improve their overall games. MacK will come out flying next season and be a force, mark my words.

It would help if we had a defenseman capable of giving him the puck in transition from a ROR trade, though

 

[InjuredChoker]

I think Freudian brings up an interesting point. What if the cap is only at 68-69M next season? Is there REALLY a team out there willing to give O'Reilly $7M/season? Would it temper his demands a bit knowing the cap was down?

good players always get their money. it's the depth players that suffer. mcginn, winnik and likes get smaller paycheck.

 

[StLAvsFan]

I think that this is good for him. He needs to learn what he can and cannot do in this league. I'm actually kind of glad, in a weird way, that our forwards are struggling this season, because it means they're going to have to figure out different ways to produce and improve their overall games. MacK will come out flying next season and be a force, mark my words.

It would help if we had a defenseman capable of giving him the puck in transition from a ROR trade, though

I agree that this season has been a VERY humbling experience for the young guns on this team. After last year's unexpected successes (both as a team & as individuals) too many of these guys thought they were pretty hot stuff who could just step on the ice and easily score goals & win games based on their talent alone. Boy were they wrong. It's been a hard lesson for them to learn too---that nothing comes easy in the NHL. You gotta scratch-and-claw, muck-and-grub, and bust your tail every shift...every game. Unfortunately it's a lesson they've learned very slowly so far--Mack included.