What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now? (Part 2)

[Mubiki]

He's in Tom Brady territory for me now. I'm not going to bet against him unless I see at least 2 consecutive years of noticable decline.

And I ain't seeing it.

 

[Leafs1991]

Id say the probability is still over 90%.

I love Gretzky, but I think some of you need to realize and accept that Ovechkin is going to do it or at least have a very good chance of beating that record.

 

[Leafs1991]

Assuming he hits 50 this year then this would give him 780 career goals.

That means he would need to average 28.5 goals per season over the last 4 years of his contract to hit 894 goals.

I think that's the most amazing part. The more he scored now, the average goals per year drops every year. I hope he drops 50 this season, then 40 the next, should make it pretty easy after that.

 

[Colezuki]

Id say the probability is still over 90%.

I love Gretzky, but I think some of you need to realize and accept that Ovechkin is going to do it or at least have a very good chance of beating that record.

my take as well,

over the next 5 years, he needs to score as a hypothetical to do this and that's assuming his tail off starts next year

35 (more), 35, 30, 28, 26

 

[Paperbagofglory]

You guys are tempting fate with the hockey gods. The Jinx is real, watch him get injured his next game.

Lets hope you guys realize the gravity of what you have done.

 

[BallardEra]

Interesting article and link from 2015:

Statistical model predicts Ovechkin could hit 836 by age 39.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

I think that's the most amazing part. The more he scored now, the average goals per year drops every year. I hope he drops 50 this season, then 40 the next, should make it pretty easy after that.

Even better would be if scoring slowly ticks up every year, and even as he slows down he keeps averaging 35-40.

 

[Frosty415]

Just think about it when it's last 10-30 goals to record. Every arena he scores going to be buzzing. And everybody definitely count them loud and clear. That is exciting thing to wait.

Any true hockey fan is excited to see HISTORY being broken, especially against the great one.

Yet... I see some bitter heads all over HFboards.

Any true hockey fan is pumped for OV

 

[Big Phil]

So, how about now?! Ovechkin has 10 goals in 10 games this year, while Matthews and Laine have 3 and Pastrnak who tarnished Ovechkin's legacy has only 2 goals. Will Ovechkin win another Rocket this year? Will Ovechkin score 50 goals this season? Will Ovechkin return to 90 points for the first time in 12 years? And is it time to admit that Ovechkin will pass Gretzky in career goals yet?!

He is off to a hot start, that's for sure. We'll see how he finishes, or how the injury bug gets him the remaining years. Lots to see.

 

[alphabetical]

You guys are tempting fate with the hockey gods. The Jinx is real, watch him get injured his next game.

Lets hope you guys realize the gravity of what you have done.

Oh no! He has bad juju now! Call off the thread! Someone's superstitions are offended!

 

[BallardEra]

Love that pic of Wayne and the bar graph look:

Who Has The Most Career NHL Goals | StatMuse

 

[BallardEra]

Ovie now has 266 goals after the age of 30. He'd have to hit 420 goals in order to pass Gretzky.

Here is a list of the most goals after the age of 30:

Most NHL Goals After Age 30 | StatMuse

 

[BallardEra]

Are the bookies taking bets on this yet?

 

[wetcoast]

He will get it even if the Caps have to wheel him out in a wheel chair and bounce shots off of him.

While this literally won't happen the sideshow could very well overtake the actual hockey and make it seem a bit cheap but "the race" is so important in todays culture and people flock to all time records and guys like Barry Sanders who walk away in their prime are forgotten to time.

 

[Mulletman]

So Ovechkin needs 153 goals to break the record. In his last 240 games Ovechkin has scored 154 goals. With a pace like that Ovechkin would pass Gretzky in his 1451st game. 36 less games than Gretzky played during his career. With scoring going up a bit in the NHL, this is not that unlikely anymore.

Ovechkin has 396 games left on his contract. In his last 396 regular season games he's scored 229 goals. With a pace like that Ovechkin would end this contract with 971 goals. Would that make him come back in order to reach 1000 career goals?

The question no longer is if Ovechkin will break Gretzky's goal record, it's will he do it in less games and will he be able to reach 1000 career goals!

 

[RageQuit77]

It is forbidden debate to discuss about 'decline of OV', which, of course, will sooner or later come ahead if he continues his career to unforeseeable future. Without any cataclysmic happenings impacting to NHL or major health issues, OV has realistically at least 5 years of good level hockey left. If he follows Howe-Selänne-Jagr aging curve, possibly some 6 to 8 years.

900+ goals is realistic with some luck, and most importantly, will of OV to continue to play. It is easy to think that even seriously slowed down, relatively badly aiming OV will be secondary or tertiary threat long after his scoring numbers have already began to look more pedestrian. It is also easy to think that there shouldn't be bigger problems for him to get one year contracts even when his 'best before date' has already long gone by, but personally I hope he play enough long to break the record (and break the milestone of 900G) and then call it a career when still being in good physical fit.

Then there is an outside possibility, no matter how remote, He is some kind of channel of Hockey gods to just defy time and troll out 100-0 of our most wildest goal scoring hopes, dreams, and expectations; white bearded grandpa still forming major scoring threat for goalies of 2030s'.