Big Phil
Registered User
- Nov 2, 2003
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Mod Note: This is part 2 of the discussion. Continued from here: What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?
An interrupted season in 2020 which wasn't a big deal but cost him 10-12 games and then a shortened year for the 2nd time in his career - at 56 games.
One thing to consider, Ovie is 35, will be 36 in September. 7 goals in 19 games is not very Ovechkin-like and he's not looked like himself this year. Granted, a lot of players his age are "losing it". Crosby, Malkin come to mind also as not playing the best hockey this year. Part of it could be age, and we saw similar things like this after 2004 and 2012 lockouts where a player in his 30s quite often just can't afford to have this much time taken off at this age and get back to his past play. He is at the 2017 level where he had 33 goals in 82 games, before ringing off Rocket Richard trophies the last three years. You never want to count him out, or say that perhaps his goal scoring is drying up (to his standards) but he hasn't looked the same this year.
9.6% shot percentage, the lowest in his career since 2011. 79 shots on net, good for a surprising 15th in the NHL. Coming from a guy who led the NHL in shots 11 times.
Basically to do the math here we have to look at it like this. Let's say he gets 20 goals this year. Or we'll give him 25 to be generous. 25 goals at the end of this year puts him at 731. He'll pass Phil Esposito this year for 6th all-time, but 731 ties him with Marcel Dionne for 5th.
So at 36 years old, 16 seasons in he'll have 731, let's say, heading into 2021-'22. He'll need:
163 goals to tie Gretzky.
So 4 more seasons of 41 goals in order to beat him. That gives him 895. That is factoring in that he could want to play in the KHL at the end of his career and I assume if Ovechkin isn't an elite goal scorer that he won't hang around the NHL with 25-30 goal seasons to end his career. That just isn't him. That's my guess.
So I think this season has put him further back and I think it has decreased his chances.
An interrupted season in 2020 which wasn't a big deal but cost him 10-12 games and then a shortened year for the 2nd time in his career - at 56 games.
One thing to consider, Ovie is 35, will be 36 in September. 7 goals in 19 games is not very Ovechkin-like and he's not looked like himself this year. Granted, a lot of players his age are "losing it". Crosby, Malkin come to mind also as not playing the best hockey this year. Part of it could be age, and we saw similar things like this after 2004 and 2012 lockouts where a player in his 30s quite often just can't afford to have this much time taken off at this age and get back to his past play. He is at the 2017 level where he had 33 goals in 82 games, before ringing off Rocket Richard trophies the last three years. You never want to count him out, or say that perhaps his goal scoring is drying up (to his standards) but he hasn't looked the same this year.
9.6% shot percentage, the lowest in his career since 2011. 79 shots on net, good for a surprising 15th in the NHL. Coming from a guy who led the NHL in shots 11 times.
Basically to do the math here we have to look at it like this. Let's say he gets 20 goals this year. Or we'll give him 25 to be generous. 25 goals at the end of this year puts him at 731. He'll pass Phil Esposito this year for 6th all-time, but 731 ties him with Marcel Dionne for 5th.
So at 36 years old, 16 seasons in he'll have 731, let's say, heading into 2021-'22. He'll need:
163 goals to tie Gretzky.
So 4 more seasons of 41 goals in order to beat him. That gives him 895. That is factoring in that he could want to play in the KHL at the end of his career and I assume if Ovechkin isn't an elite goal scorer that he won't hang around the NHL with 25-30 goal seasons to end his career. That just isn't him. That's my guess.
So I think this season has put him further back and I think it has decreased his chances.
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