Proposal: What it would take for Jacob Chychrun

[Shaman464]

Hronek who is like, much better than Chych this season (bad team excuse is not valid since it doesn’t seem to be valid for our players).

Hronek isn't much better than Chych. Hronek is a 4th forward on the ice.

 

[Bench]

LOL, old age I've even lost the ability to complain

Hey, I had to do a double take and look it up to make sure. Time is such a blur lately.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hronek isn't much better than Chych. Hronek is a 4th forward on the ice.

Hronek has almost triple the points and you’re really implying that the worst +/- player in the league has enough advantage defensively to cancel out the wide gap in scoring?

 

[Shaman464]

Hronek has almost triple the points and you’re really implying that the worst +/- player in the league has enough advantage defensively to cancel out the wide gap in scoring?

Hronek doesn't play defense. +/- is a luck stat, worse than even RBIs as a stat in isolation. And Chych plays for what might be the worst team ever in the NHL. I know you're a homer, but come on.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hronek doesn't play defense. +/- is a luck stat, worse than even RBIs as a stat in isolation. And Chych plays for what might be the worst team ever in the NHL. I know you're a homer, but come on.

Chychrun isn't even playing on the worst team in the NHL this season, and they're not even as bad as the Wings 19-20 team (I'm sure you completely excuse Hronek's bad +/- that season.. right?).

Also Chychrun's defensive metrics weren't good last season either. He's overrated because he had a lucky season scoring at a 30 goal rate, which is almost never sustainable for a d-man.

 

[jaster]

Hronek doesn't play defense. +/- is a luck stat, worse than even RBIs as a stat in isolation. And Chych plays for what might be the worst team ever in the NHL. I know you're a homer, but come on.

In small samples or viewed in isolation, +/- holds little-to-no value, and can be considered "lucky." People frequently get in trouble with the +/- stat because they use it in those ways.

But in larger samples, or used in relative terms, there is valuable information that can be gleaned. For instance, Chychrun is -29 this season. No one else on his team is worse than -14. That's not career-defining. After all, he's never lead his team in negative +/- before, much less by a wide gap. But it also demonstrates how bad he's been this season (however much you want to chalk that up to injuries is up to you). If last year was an outlier for him in a good way, this season could be considered the opposite.

The reality for Chychrun probably lies in between the past two seasons, or closer to an average of his career numbers at this point, with still having some room for improvement based on age. Through his 6 seasons-to-date, the kid averages about 12 goals, 20 assists, and a middling +/- relative to his teammates (technically, -14, but that's with big minutes on a bad team).

Chychrun's value lies in his upside and what you believe he can be, because the value to-date simply isn't worth what was proposed in the OP's trade. Or even close, really.

 

[RRhoads]

Of course Chychrun's +/- is gonna be bad. He's on one of the worst teams playing against the opponents best players.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

Perhaps we should be trying to figure out how to get a franchise center instead of giving away the farm for another D?

 

[kliq]

Of course Chychrun's +/- is gonna be bad. He's on one of the worst teams playing against the opponents best players.

I get that to a degree, but there is something to be said that the second worst +/- on the team is -14, and he is -29. He's the worst on the team by a mile. When you add that to how injury prone he is, Ill pass.

 

[Shaman464]

I get that to a degree, but there is something to be said that the second worst +/- on the team is -14, and he is -29. He's the worst on the team by a mile. When you add that to how injury prone he is, Ill pass.

He's the only guy on the yotes consistently playing against the other teams top dudes.

 

[ConnorMcBackcheck]

I don’t see Yzerman burning assets to acquire anyone at this point. Everyone of his first rounders thus far has worked out, obviously the jury is still out on Cossa and to a lesser extent Edvinsson. We’ll probably end up with another top ten pick this year if Yzerman sells anyone. Why throw away the opportunity to draft a difference maker for a guy that has spent years of his career playing for a failed organization?

I would trade a guy like Zadina for another team’s project however.

 

[kliq]

He's the only guy on the yotes consistently playing against the other teams top dudes.

Sorry, I don’t buy it. If he were say -5 worse then the next person, then sure, but he is significantly worse then every single player on the team. I’m sure their 1C and their other top pairing Dman face top players every night, nobody else on that team has numbers that bad.

I think people clamouring for him is more of a FU to Holland then anything else.

 

[Shaman464]

Sorry, I don’t buy it. If he were say -5 worse then the next person, then sure, but he is significantly worse then every single player on the team. I’m sure their 1C and their other top pairing Dman face top players every night, nobody else on that team has numbers that bad.

I think people clamouring for him is more of a FU to Holland then anything else.

You don't have to. The yotes, because I spent a large chunk of time in Phoenix, are my second team, and I watch them consistently. The most common pairing he's on is with Ilya Lyubushkin, an undrafted player from Russia who has no business being in the league, let alone a top pairing. And over the season only a quarter of his ES minutes have come with him, the other 75% have been split with a merry-go-round of washed up players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You don't have to. The yotes, because I spent a large chunk of time in Phoenix, are my second team, and I watch them consistently. The most common pairing he's on is with Ilya Lyubushkin, an undrafted player from Russia who has no business being in the league, let alone a top pairing. And over the season only a quarter of his ES minutes have come with him, the other 75% have been split with a merry-go-round of washed up players.

Hronek having a rough time playing over his head on a bad team partnered with Danny Dekeyser? BAD PLAYER
Chychrun having a rough time playing over his head on a bad team partnered with Lyubushkin? GOOD PLAYER IT'S JUST A BAD SITUATION

 

[Frk It]

He's overrated because he had a lucky season scoring at a 30 goal rate, which is almost never sustainable for a d-man.

He shot 10.2% last year. He shoots 6.7% for his career. Not that crazy, dude.

 

[Pavels Dog]

He shot 10.2% last year. He shoots 6.7% for his career. Not that crazy, dude.

I'd call that a pretty substantial difference. That's an extra 6 goals.

 

[Sentinel]

Perhaps we should be trying to figure out how to get a franchise center instead of giving away the farm for another D?

we have a franchise center. We don't have a #2D

 

[Debrincat93]

Arizona is going to want a first rounder. makes no sense for us to do this. Add in the fact he's injury prone, no thank you.

 

[Henkka]

He shot 10.2% last year. He shoots 6.7% for his career. Not that crazy, dude.

Career shooting percentage does not predict future. Players can change their habits.

Kind sure biggest thing Chychrun is missing is supporting cast.

Luck is just one thing. Who is passing for him is another. His shot locations are another. And biggest thing is screener.

If all things change on bad direction, like it usually happens in crap team, percentages go down. And in opposite cases, it will go up.

On our contender era, all stats were inflated and team shooting percentage was always better than average, because guys were more talented and played better hockey and did those small winning things like screening better than most teams. All cumulated and that never "averaged" to NHL-average.

 

[raymond23]

We could've had him forever ago. Instead we got Cholowski + Nielsen.

At least we got Hronek with the 2nd round pick we got

 

[Retire91]

We also still had our own second rounder so the wings could have still had Hronek without the trade. Any way you look at it it was a complete trade down in quality and its some sweet irony this topic has come up shining a spotlight on what incredibly incompetent direction the team was under at the time. Declining exponentially with every season making nonsensical decisions and getting embarrassed in the playoffs bubbling in by 1 or 2 points every season.

I take Chych 10 times out of 10 any given moment from the draft until they both retire. Still glad to have hronek but let's not try to create a false narrative that this was ever a good move.

If Yzerman can bring him aboard without making it just a lateral move that would be amazing. The improbability of that happening doesn't give me any hope here.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

We could've had him forever ago. Instead we got Cholowski + Nielsen.

At least we got Hronek with the 2nd round pick we got

Chychrun > than all of them. I remember ppl saying Cholo was just as good when he started off hot LOL!!!

 

[SirloinUB]

Arizona would be looking for Edvinsson and/or our 1st

 

[19 for president]

Not saying he isn't s better player but a lot of excuses people are using for Chychrun's bad season are the same one's people said weren't an excuse for Hronek is exactly the same situation. (Bad team, lousy partner, no support, playing against team's top lines, etc.)

In terms of trade I think he'd be a very solid add, but also likely cost us more than its worth because of Seider and Ed. Between Seider, Ed, and Hronek I'm feeling pretty confident about our D going forward. Then we have a slew of promising prospects that could fill that out further, and solid 3rd pairing guy in Lindstrom. I'm not opposed to using draft capital to make an upgrade, but I feel like center is still the spot we need to address more.

Fill in top 4 dman can be addressed on the UFA market, and I think I'd rather bring in a vet then adding potentially another very young dman to the group. It's good to have some stability back there and that is why I'm still happy with the Leddy trade and bring back Staal this season. Leddy hasn't been great offensive production wise, I do think he has been a semi stabilizing force back there.

 

[kliq]

You don't have to. The yotes, because I spent a large chunk of time in Phoenix, are my second team, and I watch them consistently. The most common pairing he's on is with Ilya Lyubushkin, an undrafted player from Russia who has no business being in the league, let alone a top pairing. And over the season only a quarter of his ES minutes have come with him, the other 75% have been split with a merry-go-round of washed up players.

I'm not saying everything you are saying is BS, I'm sure there is some truth to it (TBH, I just don't care enough to fact check you). What I am saying is that while I think those things may play a factor, to absolve the guy of all accountability when he's on pace to have one of the worst +/- in league history is IMO is being dishonest.

But lets pretend for conversations sake you are 100% right (which I dont believe), I still don't want him. The kid is 23 years old and has seemingly been injured every single year since he was like 16. This was the knock on him on draft day, and since he made the NHL he's missed a ton of games. Guys dont usually get more durable as they get older, so for that reason alone, I'd rather avoid him unless he comes for cheap which he won't.

Dec 14, 2021	Upper body injury, injured reserve. (missed 11 games and counting)
Dec 11, 2021	Upper body injury, day-to-day.
Jul 13, 2020	Missed the last 7 regular season games (hip injury).
Feb 22, 2020	Lower body injury, injured reserve.
Feb 20, 2020	Lower body injury, day-to-day.
Feb 09, 2019	Missed 4 games (lower body injury).
Feb 05, 2019	Lower body injury, injured reserve.
Feb 02, 2019	Lower body injury, day-to-day.
Nov 21, 2018	Missed 2 games (upper body injury).
Nov 16, 2018	Upper body injury, injured reserve.
Nov 15, 2018	Upper body injury, day-to-day.
Nov 13, 2018	Missed 16 games (knee injury).
Nov 13, 2018	Signed by the Arizona Coyotes to a six-year contract extension.
Oct 02, 2018	Knee injury, injured reserve.
Apr 07, 2018	Missed the last 2 regular season games (lower body injury).
Apr 04, 2018	Lower body injury, remainder of the regular season.
Jan 20, 2018	Missed 1 game (illness).
Jan 18, 2018	Illness, day-to-day.
Dec 02, 2017	Missed 28 games (knee injury).
Dec 02, 2017	Recalled from his conditioning assignment with the Tucson Roadrunners (AHL).
Nov 28, 2017	Assigned to the Tucson Roadrunners (AHL) for conditioning purposes.
Oct 03, 2017	Knee injury, injured reserve.
Dec 27, 2016	Missed 1 game (concussion).
Dec 23, 2016	Concussion, day-to-day.
Jul 30, 2016	Signed by the Arizona Coyotes to a three-year entry-level contract.
Jun 24, 2016	Drafted by the Arizona Coyotes in the 1st round (16th overall) in 2016.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not to mention before he was drafted:

Man-boy Chychrun may not go No. 1 in OHL