What is the best way to predict if a forward will decline rapidly or slowly?

[57special]

Nielsen was also one of those FA, wasn't he? his speed didn't keep him from declining. Erickson is another that didn't work out well.

Ladd, KO, Backes, Lucic, Neilsen, Ericksson. I thought all would decline, but was surprised that Ladd did so quickly. He was still an effective player when he was traded. I thought all the other contracts were madness. All had shown signs of decline before they were signed.

One guy who hasn't been mentioned in the same FA class is Staal. He signed for half the term and half the amount that most of the guys mentioned above did. Kind of funny, as he was, by far, the player with the best pedigree, but had a couple of down years. Turns out that his " signs of decline" were anything but. His play has ranged from really good to superb since he was signed. I wish I could say that I saw it coming, but I didn't.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

According to HF Boards once you hit 28 you're toast. Don't give that guy a long term contract! He might drop off a cliff in seven years!

 

[TT1]

Linemates
Speed
Age

Jagr would like to have a word with you.. look at guys like Jagr, Markov, Thornton, Hossa, Chara etc. They were/theyre all very good players despite their speed and age.

 

[SML2]

If the words "heart and soul" apply, keep the deals under 4 years. They flame out fast. There's a reason why everyone doesn't play that way. Let the guy define your locker room, get his reputation established, then trade him while the value is high or let him go get his overpayment contract somewhere else. Those guys are at their peak when they are young and hungry. Once you add wealthy to the description, it tails off.

 

[zaYG]

Backes had a very good hockey IQ. Ladd's was decent, too. Even Lucic.

Not too sure about this claim...

 

[DFC]

It depends on how the game evolves. It has evolved more toward speed in recent years, so players who lose a step or two can't hang. In the 90s it was players who couldn't handle the physicality who aged quickly--guys getting hit, rather than guys throwing hits, and you had Derian Hatcher playing like an all star in his 30s while being one of the slowest players in the league.

While the game has evolved toward speed and skill, and we all love that, we are one brilliant coach/GM away from that being thrown out the window in favor of whatever winning philosophy they come up with. Don't think it can't happen. Jacques Lemaire brought the high flying 80s and early 90s to a halt. It can happen again.

 

[Bank Shot]

Nielsen was also one of those FA, wasn't he? his speed didn't keep him from declining. Erickson is another that didn't work out well

Exactly.

Hemsky was all speed and hands. He declined in his early 30s.

Henrik Sedin went from 112 points at 28 to being a 55ish point guy in his early 30s.

Almost everyone declines in their 30s. Its a rare few who don't. So to say power forwards are susceptible to early decline just ignores the fact that its mostly everyone.

 

[talitintti]

No one knows and it's all just hogwash like all sports predictions

 

[Revelation]

If a fast guy loses his speed he can become way more useless than a slow cerebral guy, and many of them do in their 30s. Then again you had Jason Chimera be blazing fast until like 39.

If a guy is a crafty player he can age really well speed or not. Lucic, Ladd, Backes, Okposo are all largely meatheads. On the other hand you have TJ Oshie who is small and slow but looks like he'll age into a carbon copy of Justin Williams, so no issues with his 8 year contract at all. Stastny should age really well so long as he's put in a position where he can be a slow cerebral around the net player on his team. Of the upcoming UFAs Pavelski and Brassard should age really well, perennial 50-60 points for Pavs and perennial 40-50 for Brassard while contributing all over the ice