What is the best way to predict if a forward will decline rapidly or slowly?

[Luigi Lemieux]

Hockey iq is more important than anything. The game is constantly changing and players are getting quicker. The ability to adapt or evolve your game within this dynamic is what separates players that can play to 40 and those that are forced out of the league by 30.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Hockey iq is more important than anything. The game is constantly changing and players are getting quicker. The ability to adapt or evolve your game within this dynamic is what separates players that can play to 40 and those that are forced out of the league by 30.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I'm not sure some of those declines could have been predicted because three years ago the league was all about cycling in the corners with your frame and then ducking in for goals when the lane opened up. With the influx of mobile puck moving defensemen replacing stiffs that style has lost its effectness - even Crosby is experiencing it.

But speed also isn't the answer, guys who used to be considered pretty fast three years ago are considered pretty average with all the burners every team seems to be loading up on.

The answer then is to realize hockey is a team game and signing big contracts to players who make it to UFA is almost always going to backfire because those are usually the passengers on their line. The good players almost always re-sign with their team.

 

[Bank Shot]

Power Forwards tend to decline quicker than other types of players..

Bullcrap.

The small, skill not speed demon guys decline the quickest.

Power forwards last a long time usually.

Ie Scott Hartnell and Shane Doan

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Bullcrap.

The small, skill not speed demon guys decline the quickest.

Power forwards last a long time usually.

Ie Scott Hartnell and Shane Doan

Scott Hartnell SUCKED in his last years. He was carried by Giroux in Philly and was more recognized for his physical play in a team that had a "goon" identity. Shane Doan didn't really strike me as a power forward.

You have a lot of examples like Lucic, Ladd, Ryan, Backes and Corey Perry as Power Forwards who fell off a clip as they ages. Rick Nash could be another one, but I feel like injuries affected him a lot too.

 

[solidprospect]

Age is usually a big factor, most unrestricted free agents are 29 or older, after their best years have already happened.

 

[Bank Shot]

Scott Hartnell SUCKED in his last years. He was carried by Giroux in Philly and was more recognized for his physical play in a team that had a "goon" identity. Shane Doan didn't really strike me as a power forward.

You have a lot of examples like Lucic, Ladd, Ryan, Backes and Corey Perry as Power Forwards who fell off a clip as they ages. Rick Nash could be another one, but I feel like injuries affected him a lot too.

Hartnell had a 60 point season at 32 after leaving Philly. He's doesn't fit your narrative at all.

There are just as many examples of pure skill guys that are finished in their early 30s as well.

Tanguay, Pominville, Heatley, Briere, Semin, Roy, Cammalleri, Redden, Hemsky, Comrie, Parise, Green. The list goes on and on.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Hartnell had a 60 point season at 32 after leaving Philly. He's doesn't fit your narrative at all.

There are just as many examples of pure skill guys that are finished in their early 30s as well.

Tanguay, Pominville, Heatley, Briere, Semin, Roy, Cammalleri, Redden, Hemsky, Comrie, Parise, Green. The list goes on and on.

Thanks for Pointing out Heatley who is another example of a power forward who declined mostly because his lost of speed.

The 3/4 of the players you listed declined because of injury problems and not because of their style of play.

As for Hartnell, he retired at 36 and played his last RS at 35. He has his last good RS at 32 and then started a drastic decline.. most power forward in their mid thirties are done as decent NHLers

 

[JD1]

Hockey iq is more important than anything. The game is constantly changing and players are getting quicker. The ability to adapt or evolve your game within this dynamic is what separates players that can play to 40 and those that are forced out of the league by 30.

I don't agree with that at all. The ability to skate keeps people in the league or causes them to leave. your IQ does not start dropping in your 30s, your ability to skate does. You can go from an elite skater to an average skater to a below average skater, reinvent yourself but stay in the league. and for some that process takes 10 years. you cannot go from below average skater to can't skate well enough to be in the league regardless of your IQ. if you haven't got a step to lose and you lose one, you're done.

 

[Bank Shot]

Thanks for Pointing out Heatley who is another example of a power forward who declined mostly because his lost of speed.

The 3/4 of the players you listed declined because of injury problems and not because of their style of play.

As for Hartnell, he retired at 36 and played his last RS at 35. He has his last good RS at 32 and then started a drastic decline.. most power forward in their mid thirties are done as decent NHLers

Lol. Heatley was never anything close to a powerforward.

Most NHL forwards period are done in their mid 30s. This isn't something exclusive to powerforwards.


There were 10 forwards 35+ that hit 30 points last season.

There were four that hit 50 points. Three of those retired.

Falling off a cliff in your early 30s is what 90% of NHLers do.

When you look at the list of the forwards with the greatest longevity however its over populated by big tough players. Howe, Messier, Iginla, Shanahan, Doan etc.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Lol. Heatley was never anything close to a powerforward.

Most NHL forwards period are done in their mid 30s. This isn't something exclusive to powerforwards.


There were 10 forwards 35+ that hit 30 points last season.

There were four that hit 50 points. Three of those retired.

Falling off a cliff in your early 30s is what 90% of NHLers do.

When you look at the list of the forwards with the greatest longevity however its over populated by big tough players. Howe, Messier, Iginla, Shanahan, Doan etc.

Doan and Iginla were far from being great players after 35 years old. They just decided to stick to the NHL longer. They were nothing special.

Guys like Ryan, Perry, Lucic, and some others start declining sooner because of their lack of speed. It’s just fairly common amongst power forwards. When these type of guys reach 35, they mostly disappear from the league.

Heatley was way closer to a power forward than a pure skill guy... what are you even talking about? He is another example of a player who lost a lot of speed on the back end of his career which caused a drastic decline.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

Hartnell had a 60 point season at 32 after leaving Philly. He's doesn't fit your narrative at all.

There are just as many examples of pure skill guys that are finished in their early 30s as well.

Tanguay, Pominville, Heatley, Briere, Semin, Roy, Cammalleri, Redden, Hemsky, Comrie, Parise, Green. The list goes on and on.

Pominville had a 54 point season at age 32

Cammalleri had 38 points in a 42 game season at 32

Briere had a 68 point season at 33

Tanguay had 55 point season at 35

Zach Parise is still a decent player and he never was a pure skill guy

 

[Kale Hulls]

It isn't speed at all, guys like Holmstrom and Pavelski were still very effective players late in their careers. Even faster guys like Selanne carved out different roles for themselves later in their careers. Being able to adapt to different things is what keeps players going late.

 

[IPS]

The 2016 free agency was a blood bath of bad contracts. Several guys that were seen as good top 6 forwards like Ladd, Okposo, Lucic and Backes can now be looked at as bad contracts and regrettable decisions.

It’s important to be able to predict who’s going to decline fast, and who is going to continue to play at a high level into their thirties.

What’s a good indicator of this? What do a lot of the steep declining forwards have in common?

None of those players have a particularly good hockey IQ. They rely on their physical attributes much more than their mental attributes. When the physical attributes start to go, things go bad very quickly for them.

Looking at players like Thornton, Zetterberg, the Sedin twins, Sakic, Lafontaine (injuies were messing with him), etc... They were able to stay elite late in their careers due to their great hockey IQ's.

 

[zar]

Make your cash as a 20something... the 30something lottery contracts will become a thing of the past... too many of them are becoming crippling contracts. You might see the odd one from a desperate GM but I think you will see more and more 2-3 year contracts for players who are close to the 30 year old age or older.

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

I think it´s the mental aspect of it, older guys need something extra to stay motivated. They´ve already cashed in for life, might have a wife at home and little kids who need their attention, other things in life becomes more important. Also they need to train harder just to maintain their level which is way less motivating than constant improvement.

Some guys still have the mindset to put hockey ahead of all that.

 

[major major]

Scott Hartnell SUCKED in his last years. He was carried by Giroux in Philly and was more recognized for his physical play in a team that had a "goon" identity.

Hartnell was definitely not that in Columbus. Really all the WWF stuff was just a sideshow, and he wasn't feared much. His passing and vision were top notch but no one talked about it because he would muck it up in scrums a lot. I also don't think that he was bad at all in Philly, just one season where he was slumping and taking too many penalties, and they dumped him for Umberger. Whoops.

You could guess Hextall thought Hartnell was in rapid decline because of his lack of speed (he was never fast), but Hextall woefully underestimated Hartnell's IQ.

 

[Scrantonicity 2]

Linemates
Speed
Age

 

[Ainec]

OP forgot Eriksson, how?

Answer is the only time to overpay and hand out big contracts is when a marquee player like Tavares is there

 

[Bank Shot]

None of those players have a particularly good hockey IQ. They rely on their physical attributes much more than their mental attributes. When the physical attributes start to go, things go bad very quickly for them.

Looking at players like Thornton, Zetterberg, the Sedin twins, Sakic, Lafontaine (injuies were messing with him), etc... They were able to stay elite late in their careers due to their great hockey IQ's.

You aren't comparing the same class of player though.

Your second group is all composed of guys who were contenders for major awards in their primes.

The first group is guys that had a few good but not great seasons.

Of course first ballot hall of famers are more likely to be able to play at 35+.

 

[Spirit of 67]

can now be looked at as bad contracts and regrettable decisions.

Everyone knew these were horrid contracts the second they were signed.

 

[Bank Shot]

Pominville had a 54 point season at age 32

Cammalleri had 38 points in a 42 game season at 32

Briere had a 68 point season at 33

Tanguay had 55 point season at 35

Zach Parise is still a decent player and he never was a pure skill guy

Which isn't any different that a guy like Hartnell or Smyth or Doan.

The guys you mentioned and the power forward types all had good years at 32-33 but most of them declined rapidly shortly after.

Show me any evidence that power forwards decline more quickly.

You can throw out a few examples but there are examples of every type of player on the NHL declining at or around 30.

 

[Atas2000]

The 2016 free agency was a blood bath of bad contracts. Several guys that were seen as good top 6 forwards like Ladd, Okposo, Lucic and Backes can now be looked at as bad contracts and regrettable decisions.

It’s important to be able to predict who’s going to decline fast, and who is going to continue to play at a high level into their thirties.

What’s a good indicator of this? What do a lot of the steep declining forwards have in common?

How about the playing style of those guys is really not where the league goes in the last couple of years at least. Look, Backes, Lucic are prime examples of big, mean, not exactly fast and nifty skaters.

 

[57special]

None of those players have a particularly good hockey IQ. They rely on their physical attributes much more than their mental attributes. When the physical attributes start to go, things go bad very quickly for them.

Looking at players like Thornton, Zetterberg, the Sedin twins, Sakic, Lafontaine (injuies were messing with him), etc... They were able to stay elite late in their careers due to their great hockey IQ's.

Backes had a very good hockey IQ. Ladd's was decent, too. Even Lucic.

 

[TT1]

If said player relies more on his physical tools to be an effective NHL'er as opposed to his hockey IQ.