What has been the Leafs biggest mistake?

[Duckrider]

I picked Dubas/Contracts.

But more specifically, I knew the precise moment where Dubas caved to Nylander that our fate was sealed and our promising young core was ruined.

Pastrnak paced for 38 goals/77 points his final elc year. Nylander 20 goals/60 points. To cave to Nylander and give him the Pastrnak contract (plus cap inflation, WAY more in signing bonuses, WAY more front-loaded, and 1 more ufa year). A contract that player-friendly was a sign of things to come. He was dramatically overpaid when compared to direct comparables. I KNEW that the same would happen fo the others.

We only say this contract looks good now when comparing it to Dubas's other unprecedented dramatic overpayments.

Sorry, he's worth every cent of his contract.

 

[rumman]

I concur with you on his waking up. I was getting really worried about him doubling down on the skilled but smaller thought process but it looks like he realized the playoffs are not going to become the regular season like he had hoped.

I don't mind mistakes as much when the person doing them at least acknowledges it and tries to correct it. It looks like he is embracing the role player even if his upside isn't as high as the xGF superstars that are tiny and shitty in the playoffs.

Dubas has squandered years coming to the conclusion many here knew all along, let's hope it isn't a case of: too long stupid, too late smart?

 

[rumman]

If the cap went up, so would the prices of players we’ve signed since then.

posters like to only look at one side of this coin, but alas it has two sides.........

 

[socko]

Yes, they choked. Agreed.

Who would you say has a higher chance of choking in next years playoffs? Point or Marner? Would you give it equal odds? Favor one over the other? Please explain.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Tavares.

 

[sxvnert]

Hiring Dubas was the biggest mistake the leafs made during this rebuild. Its undeniable.

Signing tavares at 11m leads to Nylander hold out, leads to 5yr Matthews contract because Dubas is terrified, leads to marner demanding whatever he wants.

The marner, matthews, tavares, nylander rebuild edition is over. Now they're treading water until the fans completely lose their shit.

 

[Its not your fault]

Add poll option: Promoting Kyle Dubas to GM

Rather he learns now while they are 20 to 25 then there prime 25 to 30 years of the core.

 

[Bomber0104]

Rather he learns now while they are 20 to 25 then there prime 25 to 30 years of the core.

He'll learn with another organization if he's lucky.

The damage is already done here.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Sorry, he's worth every cent of his contract.

And Pastrnak would be worth every penny if he signed for 10 mil. But he's at 6.6

And MacKinnon would be worth every penny if he signd for 11 mil. But he's at 6.3

Those GOOD gm's signed their players for what they had PROVEN. Not for what they hoped they'd become. Nylander was a PROVEN 20 goal/60 point player. He's significantly overpaid based on what he was at time of signing.

 

[Ashdown2]

And Pastrnak would be worth every penny if he signed for 10 mil. But he's at 6.6

And MacKinnon would be worth every penny if he signd for 11 mil. But he's at 6.3

Those GOOD gm's signed their players for what they had PROVEN. Not for what they hoped they'd become. Nylander was a PROVEN 20 goal/60 point player. He's significantly overpaid based on what he was at time of signing.

these mckinnon comparisons are laughable. ....... you cant pick and choose your narrative on the 2 greatest contracts ever signed before the players were SUPERSTARS ... if mckinnon signed that 1 year later it would have been over 10 mil. ................ every single GM in the league has at least a handful of bad contracts they have given out ...
like serious if dubas only contract mistake is marner ..... what exactly are we complaining about ? Also I've had it up to here with this Marner is garbage narrative on these boards.

everyone loves the florida gm .... and yet hes the guy that decided to give bobrovsky 10 mil , the worst contract in the league.

 

[Puckstuff]

Not signing our franchise player and leader in Matthews to an 8 year deal is the biggest mistake, possibly the biggest mistake in franchise history. 90 % of the other franchise superstars (Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, Eichel, Kane) ALL signed long term deals. The only one who didn't was Tavares and we know what happened.

After this season, Matthews only has 2 years left of control and can walk to free agency at the earliest possible time. Are people aware how absurd this is? Dubas lost on money and term. The Matthews-Marner contracts are possibly the most mishandled contracts in NHL history. In the short term it f***ed our ability to win (he could have signed them to a bridge) and in the long term we lose the asset at the earliest possible time.

I can't forgive Dubas for this one. There's an 80+ % chance he's walking to Arizona where there is better climate and lower taxes.

 

[Ashdown2]

Not signing our franchise player and leader in Matthews to an 8 year deal is the biggest mistake. 90 % of the other franchise superstars (Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, Eichel, Kane) ALL signed long term deals. The only one who didn't was Tavares and we know what happened.

After this season, Matthews only has 2 years left of control and can walk to free agency at the earliest possible time. Are people aware how absurd this is? Dubas lost on money and term. The Matthews-Marner contracts are possibly the most mishandled contracts in NHL history. I can't forgive Dubas for this one. There's an 80+ % chance he's walking to Arizona where there is better wheather, lower taxes.

half correct
crosby signed for 5 after ELC
kane signed for 5 after ELC

why is everyone assuming he will leave after his contract ? has any superstar that has signed 5+ years left ? there might be some im forgetting about but its not a normal occurance unless your team is complete dogshit (eichel with buffalo)

that list you provided doesn't really tell that story does it .... hell if Arizona wants Matthews so bad ... no player is untouchable, imagine the amount of assets phoenix will give you for having Matthews for 9 years ! (last year of contract + sign and trade).

 

[Puckstuff]

half correct
crosby signed for 5 after ELC
kane signed for 5 after ELC

why is everyone assuming he will leave after his contract ? has any superstar that has signed 5+ years left ? there might be some im forgetting about but its not a normal occurance unless your team is complete dogshit (eichel with buffalo)

that list you provided doesn't really tell that story does it .... hell if Arizona wants Matthews so bad ... no player is untouchable, imagine the amount of assets phoenix will give you for having Matthews for 9 years ! (last year of contract + sign and trade).

I can’t predict the future on what Matthews would do. I can only put my self in his shoes and ask what would I do if given the same circumstances. The answer for me (if I’m being abused online and in the media like Matthews+Marner have) I may strongly consider leaving. To 1) go to a better and less hostile environment 2) pay less in tax 3) have nicer weather on my limited time on this earth; well, I may end up going to my hometown state. I don’t think people are aware just how much hate Matthews and Marner have gotten online. Regardless of if he leaves or not, it’s a risk and an unnecessary risk that could have been avoided. You always get as much control as you can and if you don’t that’s fine, but you lost the negotiation.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Not signing our franchise player and leader in Matthews to an 8 year deal is the biggest mistake, possibly the biggest mistake in franchise history. 90 % of the other franchise superstars (Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, Eichel, Kane) ALL signed long term deals. The only one who didn't was Tavares and we know what happened.

After this season, Matthews only has 2 years left of control and can walk to free agency at the earliest possible time. Are people aware how absurd this is? Dubas lost on money and term. The Matthews-Marner contracts are possibly the most mishandled contracts in NHL history. In the short term it f***ed our ability to win (he could have signed them to a bridge) and in the long term we lose the asset at the earliest possible time.

I can't forgive Dubas for this one. There's an 80+ % chance he's walking to Arizona where there is better climate and lower taxes.

Crosby, Kane & Toews 1st deals out of ELC were all 5 years. Huge swing and a miss

 

[Puckstuff]

Crosby, Kane & Toews 1st deals out of ELC were all 5 years. Huge swing and a miss

Whoops, my bad.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Whoops, my bad.

But I agree with your point in the sense that if Matthews was using Eichel & McDavid as comparables then sign for 8 years. If you’re not willing to give up as many UFA years then less AAV. Overall the Matthews contract doesn’t make sense to me

 

[KapG]

The matthews contract is soooooooo bad. How you only lock down this guy down for 5 years is completely f***ed up

 

[horner]

Speeding up the rebuild

signing Taveras before Mathews and Marner were signed

 

[centipede2233]

If the leafs miss the playoffs or another rd 1 loss, bye bye dubie

 

[Dekes For Days]

The team we actually have is populated with 3 $11 million dollar players that can’t beat good goaltending in the playoffs.

Goaltenders can impact a game outcome more than any other player. It's just the reality of the position. To put things in perspective, Matthews and Marner lead their team in playoff points and points per game since entering the league, despite being 19-23 years old during that time. During that time, they have faced a higher quality of defense than likely anybody in the league, and an assortment of Vezina winners and playoff goalie record-holders, while receiving very little PP time.

Over the past 3 years, they have faced #1, #2, and #3 in playoff SV%, among all opposing goalies who have played more than one series worth of games over that time. Every single star that faced Montreal this year put up disappointing production, except Nylander. These players have produced in series before in the playoffs against great goaltenders, and have beat the very best goaltenders in the league countless times throughout the regular season. They are also doing very well in terms of actual play and tilting the ice. It's way, way to early to write them off.

Kind of begs the question why are they being paid so much.

Whether you like it or not, playoff production has very little impact on contracts. Available samples vary so significantly, and GMs understand how much it is impacted by external factors, and how difficult it is to compare across teams. They earned the contract valuation they got just like everybody else.

We cannot look past the outcomes because they are the only things that are real.

It's all real. In looking back and determining who won or lost a hockey game, there may be only one specific consideration, but to build a sustainably competitive hockey team with the best chance to win hockey games moving forward, there are many considerations.

If the fancy stats are showing the Leafs to be a good team then that just shows how inaccurate those stats are because the Leafs keep loosing and defying them

Being a good team doesn't guarantee you a win, especially when you're facing even better teams. There are no guarantees in hockey. Let's be clear here - we shouldn't have won the first three playoffs. We were outplayed against better, older, less flawed teams than us, and if anything, we outperformed expectations in taking them to the limit.

So we're actually talking about two series which we arguably should have won; one that wasn't a normal series length, and happened after months of inaction, and one where we lost one of the biggest pieces of our team for the whole series. And both of those opponents received the one thing that can best help a team win when they are being outplayed - objectively outstanding goaltending. Which continued beyond just us.

The stats were not "defied". They explain what happened very well. There are just some people who don't want to accept what happened, and just want to proclaim that everybody and everything is horrible.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe the difference is that we aren't getting the good scoring chances

But we are getting good scoring chances. That's beyond obvious in everything, from statistics to the eye test.

 

[Arzak]

Unpopular opinion - signing JT. Not because of the player (I love JT), but because of all the implications that followed.

This.

Luxury signing with inflation implications, of course, no one could predict flat cap, yet it feels like we overestimated our ability to get Nylander, Marner and Matthews on team-friendly contracts back when signing JT.

 

[NMacrules]

The biggest mistake was not keeping Hunter or Lou. Dubas has systematically destroyed our cap by giving up those huge contracts. Because of the big 4, Dubas has to do patchwork every year and that does not work, especially when only 1 of your 4 puts out effort. Still 2 big holes on defence and 1 big hole up front on the first line. Kase and Bunting should help and hopefully Robertson is ready, and he is already better than Engvall and Mik.

 

[Mess]

This.

Luxury signing with inflation implications, of course, no one could predict flat cap, yet it feels like we overestimated our ability to get Nylander, Marner and Matthews on team-friendly contracts back when signing JT.

Every team has its own internal salary structure so the minute our GM signed Tavares to $11 mil he should and realized it would act like a magnet and draw the other salaries particularly Matthews and Marner up to it.

But you could file this under hiring a rookie president that hired a rookie GM to get us in this cap situation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

the minute our GM signed Tavares to $11 mil he should and realized it would act like a magnet and draw the other salaries particularly Matthews and Marner up to it.

UFA contracts have no relevance to post-ELC negotiations.