It's worth noting that because of the new format for the draft, it's possible to be a decent team, JUST miss the playoffs (and in the western conference, that might mean being better than some eastern teams that make it in), and still have at least a chance of getting the first overall pick.
So, it is possible, however unlikely, that the Oilers could progress a great deal next season and still end up with Connor McDavid.
That said...
I think if Craig MacTavish cannot get this team moving in a positive direction, IE, at least within shooting range of the playoffs, after two years of changes, then I think there's reason to fire him, as well as the rest of the management team. I might be willing to give one more year (depending on circumstances... say, I might be more forgiving if Hall and Nugent-Hopkins both suffer season ending injuries early on), but I think if you can't at least improve matters after two complete seasons, there's reason to question competence.
It's worth noting that it took until Steve Tambellini's second season as GM to move the team from somewhat below average (which is what Lowe managed) to abysmal. I think the first year of a GM's tenure is more indicative of the previous GM's competence, and the second is more indicative of the current GM's ability.
