What Happened to Stamkos?

[AvroArrow]

Broke his leg and lost a hall of fame line mate

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Doesn't look like someone who is debilitated from effects of leg injury, nothing to do with lost athleticism/physical functioning from injury.

He peaked early, that's all. He's still in his athletic and biological/chronological prime but he's never going to be the player he was in 10-12 again.

 

[FinnLightning26]

Doesn't look like someone who is debilitated from effects of leg injury, nothing to do with lost athleticism/physical functioning from injury.

He peaked early, that's all. He's still in his athletic and biological/chronological prime but he's never going to be the player he was in 10-12 again.

That's exactly the kind of thing he doesn't do anymore. He has the shot to make the best goalie in the league look silly. Now he just looks for a pass every time he enters the zone and it's become so predictable.

I miss that Stamkos in the video. He was an absolute treat to watch.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Honestly, I might be in the minority but I always thought that Stamkos has the best shot arsenal in the league.

Some might be better at one of them (see Kessel, snap shot) but overall he's insane.

Ovechkin has two things on him. Shot volume, and he knows his job. When Stamkos starts trying to be a pure goal scorer again, we will have that Stamkos back.

 

[Sky04]

Honestly, I might be in the minority but I always thought that Stamkos has the best shot arsenal in the league.

Some might be better at one of them (see Kessel, snap shot) but overall he's insane.

Ovechkin has two things on him. Shot volume, and he knows his job. When Stamkos starts trying to be a pure goal scorer again, we will have that Stamkos back.

Kovalchuk had the best shot arsenal I've ever seen, one-timer, slap shot, wrist shot, snap shot everything was elite.

Even Stamkos' one-timer has been off mark since his return from injury, it's not half as scary as it was before. His wrist shot is still very good if he gets time to load up.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I haven't looked too in-depth at it but hasn't it been said players are hitting their primes younger (around age 23?) so maybe he is simply exiting his prime. From ages 19-23 he was a PPG or higher player, age 24 he was 10 points below a PPG and last season 13. Also for a good part of his high scoring years the two main guys were St. Louis and Stamkos and then whoever got to ride shot gun on his line.

The last couple of years the Lightning seem to be more balanced, with guys like Kucherov, Palat, Johnson, Filppula, Callahan, Drouin, Namestnikov, Killorn all cutting into the production of the higher end guys. (Some of them are higher end mind you).

With potentially 9 guys who have showed ability to score in this league, the point totals of Stamkos are going to drop because there is only so many goals to go around. The better the team, the less points you're going to get individually because no matter what team you are, you likely aren't going to score over 3 goals per game, so same amount of goals and more players to share those goals with.

Scoring prime perhaps.

But I believe players do get better after 23

 

[authentic]

Scoring prime perhaps.

But I believe players do get better after 23

Nope not perhaps, it's not true. There was a study done and according to that the average scoring prime for elite players is 26-27 for goals, 27-28 for points, and 28-29 for assists. A lot of times it may seem this way when elite players come up during higher scoring times and then scoring gets harder as their career goes on, but relative to the league that's what I saw in a study someone posted on here. Stamkos did have a serious injury and lost an elite regular linemate (who was arguably better than him at 37) so the reasons for his scoring decline are obvious and have nothing to do with age.

 

[Henkka]

A few years ago Stamkos was one of the best players in the NHL. He had 50 and 60 goal seasons, 90+ points and he was in his early 20s. Now that he's in his prime you'd think he would be better but he's worse. He hasn't been ppg for the last two seasons I know he had a leg injury but it shouldn't have that much of an impact. What has changed since then.

Martin St. Louis did retire.

Goal-scoring center (Stamkos) had Art Ross level playmaking RW (St. Louis). It's that simple.

I think Stamkos should be put with Kucherov to be a top scoring threat again.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Kovalchuk had the best shot arsenal I've ever seen, one-timer, slap shot, wrist shot, snap shot everything was elite.

Even Stamkos' one-timer has been off mark since his return from injury, it's not half as scary as it was before. His wrist shot is still very good if he gets time to load up.

Agree with this, but something no one mentioned is PP opportunities being way down. That really impacts a guy like SS that relies on his shot.

 

[Moon Man]

Msl.

 

[ForumNamePending]

I dunno... I don't think it's all that unusual for elite offensive players to have already had their most prolific seasons before they turn 25.

But ya... I'm sure a serious leg injury and losing an elite linemate doesn't help.

 

[DFC]

Doesn't look like someone who is debilitated from effects of leg injury, nothing to do with lost athleticism/physical functioning from injury.

He peaked early, that's all. He's still in his athletic and biological/chronological prime but he's never going to be the player he was in 10-12 again.

He just does not take that shot on the fly anymore. And on the rare occasion he does, it's like he takes an extra split second to set it up that he never needed before.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Looking at his 2011-12 highlights it's as if he's a different player.

 

[Sky04]

He just does not take that shot on the fly anymore. And on the rare occasion he does, it's like he takes an extra split second to set it up that he never needed before.

I agree, and that's a mental thing as well, overthinking when you should be acting on "goal scorers instinct". If he gets a chance to load up a wrist shot, it's likely in the net but he never had to do that before, I mean his shot power is still there but the release isn't. His one timer now needs a perfect set up pass or else he can't get it off cleanly, before all you had to do was throw it in his general vicinity and he'll get it off.

On the positive side, he's still a lock for 40+ goals through a full season despite these "flaws", a bit of a cleanup and he's still a capable 50 goal scorer. Bad news is that if these world cup games are any indication, he's still the same player from the past 2 years...

 

[Sky04]

Looking at his 2011-12 highlights it's as if he's a different player.

He didn't need MSL that year either, complete one man show.

 

[Phil McKraken]

A few years ago Stamkos was one of the best players in the NHL. He had 50 and 60 goal seasons, 90+ points and he was in his early 20s. Now that he's in his prime you'd think he would be better but he's worse. He hasn't been ppg for the last two seasons I know he had a leg injury but it shouldn't have that much of an impact. What has changed since then.

A prime refers to a player's best years so if Stamkos was better before he's not in his prime.

He is of the age where forwards usually have their prime though.

 

[Master P]

Towards the end of the season (before the blood clot), Stamkos was starting to score at a much higher pace and show glimpses of the "old stammer". If Drouin gets paired with him and continues from where he left of in the playoffs then I see no reason why Stamkos can't get back to 50 goals.


I also think that Tampa's horrible PP (ranked 28th in the league if I remember correctly) had a lot to do with the decline in production. Drouin really seems to me like he can do a ton to improve the PP success.

I think people are making too big a deal out of this past season. Sure he had a down year(for him) but I think the fact that the contract talk and rumors are finally over means that he can focus on hockey and get back to his scoring ways.

Here are his career numbers. With the exception of last season I see no real reason to think he is on the decline.

 

[shazariahl]

A few years ago Stamkos was one of the best players in the NHL. He had 50 and 60 goal seasons, 90+ points and he was in his early 20s. Now that he's in his prime you'd think he would be better but he's worse. He hasn't been ppg for the last two seasons I know he had a leg injury but it shouldn't have that much of an impact. What has changed since then.

The HoH section has had many threads in the past showing that goal scorers tend to actually peak early (usually around 23). Playmakers tend to peak later (around 26-29), Dmen even later (usually 29-32ish? IIRC) and goalies even later, usually in their early 30's. So I think Stamkos is probably past his prime, since he is predominantly a goal scorer. That, combined with injuries (mostly the leg, but he's had a few others), means he probably won't get back to 50+.

As someone else pointed out too, scoring has been declining, which combined with aging and injuries will make it hard. That all being said, I think 35-40 goal seasons are still very probable (as in, I would be surprised if he didn't get that many) and with his shot, he'll be scoring a lot of PP goals even as he continues to age.

Either way, I'd still say he's one of the best goal scorers in the league, with only Ovechkin clearly ahead, and a very small pool of others in contention for #2, at least for now.

 

[Canucks LB]

Snapped his leg in two

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Worth noting, I read an article just now about Stamkos at the World Cup.

He said when he fell short of making the Olympics that it
killed a lot of mental and physical energy for him. There really could be a lot of mental issue here. Best season of his career gets blown apart, works incredibly hard to come back for the largest tournament in the world, feels ready, gets told he can't go. Has to watch all of his friends win gold without him.

That'd probably change me a bit, too.

 

[teravaineSAROS]

Honestly, I might be in the minority but I always thought that Stamkos has the best shot arsenal in the league.

Some might be better at one of them (see Kessel, snap shot) but overall he's insane.

Ovechkin has two things on him. Shot volume, and he knows his job. When Stamkos starts trying to be a pure goal scorer again, we will have that Stamkos back.

Oh come on, Ovechkin is an entire tier above him until Stamkos proves he can outscore him more than 1-2 times

 

[613Leafer]

Keep in mind that scoring is declining league wide as well. Not only is it declining, but its also being more evenly distributed throughout lineups.

You can still look at his rank in scoring though. He's quite clearly dropped from top top echelon to a sort of pretty good second tier area.

2011:
Points:5th
Goals: 2nd

2012:
Points:2nd
Goals: 1st

2013:
Points:2nd
Goals:2nd

2014: Injured,only played 37 games

2015:
Points:14th
Goals:2nd

2016:
Points:24th
Goals: 8th

 

[HasbeenHallzy]

He caught Danny Heatleyitits

 

[BraveCanadian]

He got hurt, lost a great setup man in St. Louis, and he isn't 22-23 any more.