Post-Game Talk: What Does Scoring Feel Like? Leafs lose 4-0 to Ducks.

[Trapper]

Pick 1: Winning or Losing
Pick 1: Right way or Wrong way

Our Leafs have gone from winning the wrong way to losing the right way, so now they just need to figure out how to play winning the right way style.

So progress is being made and we just need to pick a different combo of available outcomes and options.

That leaves only the players in question.

 

[thewave]

With the right players, Horachek has put in a system that maintains success over 82 games and eliminates the collapse. Underlying stats are trending in the right direction. GA are still a problem because even with the system players aren't good enough. Shooting % and GF have gone way down. This is a style of play that should lead to a new culture.
With the right players.
We will see how long those players who just want to rush (or run and gun) respond to not scoring.

You're right playing this way is playing like a contender. Now, how can you be a contender when.


Lupul 5.2m plays a half season
Bozak 4.2m is your top C
Clarkson 5.2m is trash
Robidas 3m is about ready to retire
Reimer 2m is just lingering waiting
Jake 4m has done nothing to help

24m in pure waste of cap. That's 4-5 top 6 players worth or 2 top 4D and 2 top 6.

Then you have Santa Winnik Booth Panik trying to overcome the above shortcomings for a mere 8m or less. It's a joke, Nonis is a joke.

 

[Suntouchable13]

This. Not even Horachek can keep us down (or up?). Top 5 pick here we come.

No, they will just get it going too late vaulting us into 9th place.

 

[ULF_55]

Eye on the Prize, y'all:
Ryan Strome

Can they really manage to grab another top 5 pick, hold onto it, and hit a homerun?

I guess it isn't so easy to play a 200' game?

 

[Pookie]

I can't remember the last time I said this: we're losing games we deserve to win. This style of play is much more sustainable than the run-and-gun/cheating to the offensive side style we were playing before. Anyone that watched that game would know that we had a plethora of good chances - we just never buried them. Andersen was a machine tonight.

We'll start winning soon.

How do you reach this conclusion... based on shots?

If so, Leafs outshot Anaheim by 3 measly shots. LA outshot them by 1. I know some go ape ***** for Corsi but in most circles that is called a wash. In smart places, that charge you $10k per year to sit in, that would call that a lack of statistical significance.

 

[Mansfield]

Another fairly close game...it'll turn around

 

[Mess]

They weren't winning the wrong way. In fact, they were barely winning at all.

45 points in 40 games = +5 games over .500 hockey & in a playoff spot.

= 92.5 points pace /82 games

Last years last wild card team had 93 points.

Don't get me wrong nobody was more critical of Leafs actual play by winning the wrong way and by more luck than understanding. However the team was still in a playoff spot at time of change and in the battle for a wild card spot, but trending the wrong way at the end.

 

[080]

You're right playing this way is playing like a contender. Now, how can you be a contender when.


Lupul 5.2m plays a half season
Bozak 4.2m is your top C
Clarkson 5.2m is trash
Robidas 3m is about ready to retire
Reimer 2m is just lingering waiting
Jake 4m has done nothing to help

24m in pure waste of cap. That's 4-5 top 6 players worth or 2 top 4D and 2 top 6.

Then you have Santa Winnik Booth Panik trying to overcome the above shortcomings for a mere 8m or less. It's a joke, Nonis is a joke.

Once Kessel, Reimer and Bozak get traded, these contracts won't matter.

Jake has looked completely different under Horachek. If he continues to build on his confidence, he'll be back to playing solid hockey. Or at least to playing himself into a position to be traded.

Robidas is overpaid by, what, a million? If we're going to be trading high-salary guys and rebuilding/retooling, Robidas' experience will help and his cap-hit won't matter. Not to mention it's only 2 years. Are we going to be contenders in two years and be desperate for that little bit of cap savings? No.

Clarkson is the only real anchor. He's just a bad hockey player: he gives it all when he's out there but he has the IQ of a squirrel that's been run over.

The last half of the season should be interesting our scoring prowess for the rest of the season. I don't think we're going to see a ton of offense from Bozak/Kessel when they can't run-and-gun (though I have noticed Kessel still doesn't do **** about getting pucks out and still flies the zone all the time looking for stretch passes). And without them it's the Kadri/JVR line that needs to score (especially with Lupul and Holland out).

 

[Warden of the North]

Please let us win the lottery.

 

[Trapper]

Can they really manage to grab another top 5 pick, hold onto it, and hit a homerun?

I guess it isn't so easy to play a 200' game?

This team will finish 8-12.
I don't see us falling to bottom 5 pick.
If we are lucky a player like Barzal might slip due to injury. Or a Conner.
We need to draft a center. Both the above players play a 200 foot game as well.
We need to draft based on a combination of:
Skill
Character
2-way play
Factor all 3 into the player selection.

 

[thewave]

Another fairly close game...it'll turn around

Not when Kessel is complaining about the new system already and we have 24m of useless signed. None of this adds up. It won't transition ever when once the hunt is on shortly teams kick in high gear we will dive hard based on talent.

 

[ULF_55]

This team will finish 8-12.
I don't see us falling to bottom 5 pick.
If we are lucky a player like Barzal might slip due to injury. Or a Conner.
We need to draft a center. Both the above players play a 200 foot game as well.
We need to draft based on a combination of:
Skill
Character
2-way play
Factor all 3 into the player selection.

They have to do whatever they can to land that center.

Elite centers are not built, they're born. Getzlaf age 21, 58 points, age 22, 82 points. I'd say elite shows way before age 25, so they probably have to draft one, so if they get 8-12, pay the cost to move up.

 

[Kelly]

Well, at least falling off a cliff this early into the season is a lot easier on the heart.

 

[Mess]

Leaf had beaten the Ducks 6 straight times previously before yesterday (including 6-2 earlier this season) because they got Anaheim to play to their strengths (offense) and then couldn't hang.

When the Leafs tried to adapt and play Anaheim style and to their strengths the outcome was the opposite. Ducks have been playing sound defense for too long for the Leafs to think they could also beat them at their own game also.

Is there something to creating a game plan that would beat an opponent based on what has worked in the past and playing to strengths and weakness adapting with each situation? Perhaps that is what a good coach does.

 

[Kelly]

Nothing else needs to be said really.

Well that's interesting... who knews we'd see results (albeit not the exact results we're looking for) so quickly.

Either way -- I still want the Leafs to lose the remaining 37 games.

 

[thewave]

Leaf had beaten the Ducks 6 straight times previously before yesterday (including 6-2 earlier this season) because they got Anaheim to play to their strengths (offense) and then couldn't hang.

When the Leafs tried to adapt and play Anaheim style and to their strengths the outcome was the opposite. Ducks have been playing sound defense for too long for the Leafs to think they could also beat them at their own game also.

Is there something to creating a game plan that would beat an opponent based on what has worked in the past and playing to strengths and weakness adapting with each situation? Perhaps that is what a good coach does.

Absolutely the best coaches are adaptive and prepare with a plan B. the best coaches can read the way a game is going and can make corrections on the fly.

Babcock can do this... Find a way to win.

 

[ULF_55]

How do you reach this conclusion... based on shots?

If so, Leafs outshot Anaheim by 3 measly shots. LA outshot them by 1. I know some go ape ***** for Corsi but in most circles that is called a wash. In smart places, that charge you $10k per year to sit in, that would call that a lack of statistical significance.

Corsi is approximately, up to 40% of the analysis. Corsi doesn't determine who is a winner or who is going to be a winner.

Yes, you want to be near the top of Corsi, at least over 50%, but that doesn't mean you're going to win without luck and abilities on top of that. Goaltending, and don't forget special teams aren't part of Corsi analysis.

If your PK and PP suck, what good is a Corsi?

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

This is absolutely hilarious. So the Leafs are over .500 and in a wild card spot playing under Carlyle. They were winning most games they had no business winning, but they were winning, Perhaps Carlyle coached the way he coached due the personnel he had to work with.

Now Horachek comes in, we are 1-3 and have scored 7 goals (1 empty netter), and have been shut out twice. So we have let about 10-15 less shots per game, which is great, but at what cost? Seems like at the cost of scoring goals, which last time I checked was crucial to win games.

Apparently, based on the comments on here, this is great. The fact remains, they do not have the core talent on this team to get it done, no matter what the system.

Please continue to lose and faceplant in style Leafs, burn it down Shanahan. Lets rebuild this team properly.

Exactly!

I love how everyone hates on RC and has a full on Horachek **** now but the new guy isn't even getting as good of results as the old guy. Maybe the new guy will figure out that they old guy was playing this team the only way it was capable of being successful with its current roster. Any peewee league coach can come in and make the team play defense while foregoing any offense and lose. What makes Horachek so much better than RC? Because he is now LOSING THE RIGHT WAY?

Apparently Horachek knows how to lose hockey games like a winner, something RC wasn't doing?!? Gotta love Laffs Hockey.

 

[pspot]

these games are a bit to late for me so missing them

weird that they are out shooting teams, is it the other team is giving them shots but not scoring chances?

The shots against is a good sign, assume its a product of not playing wide open hockey

Kessel playing almost 20 mins, 4 shots but even plus minus. were the shots typical outside ones? is he playing any different?

 

[Cor]

Ducks lost 3 of the first 14 games Post-Carlyle too. But when the players got fully adjusted, and the offensive game, they took off.

 

[Trapper]

They have to do whatever they can to land that center.

Elite centers are not built, they're born. Getzlaf age 21, 58 points, age 22, 82 points. I'd say elite shows way before age 25, so they probably have to draft one, so if they get 8-12, pay the cost to move up.

Regardless of what they do with this core, the focus should be on drafting as many centers as possible. Grabbing extra picks at the same time. Finding a sleeper is out only option if you are not in the top 3 or trade.
Stockpile centers and D. Don't worry about wingers.

 

[thewave]

Exactly!

I love how everyone hates on RC and has a full on Horachek **** now but the new guy isn't even getting as good of results as the old guy. Maybe the new guy will figure out that they old guy was playing this team the only way it was capable of being successful with its current roster. Any peewee league coach can come in and make the team play defense while foregoing any offense and lose. What makes Horachek so much better than RC? Because he is now LOSING THE RIGHT WAY?

Apparently Horachek knows how to lose hockey games like a winner, something RC wasn't doing?!? Gotta love Laffs Hockey.

He is asking for a certain style to be played. That doesn't work in reality only the Theory. Sometimes when down by one against a team like this you have to say. Open it up guys make them uncomfortable and intimidate them with your speed.

 

[Mess]

Nothing else needs to be said really.

Well this needs to be said.

Holding an opponent to <30 shots in 4 games in a row is a normal every day week and common practice for a lot of good teams. They do that numerous times throughout the course of an NHL season.

When the Leafs accomplish this feat its recording setting for the franchise as a real achievement.

I think this is what separates the real contenders and those simply trying to emulate them.

 

[ULF_55]

these games are a bit to late for me so missing them

weird that they are out shooting teams, is it the other team is giving them shots but not scoring chances?

The shots against is a good sign, assume its a product of not playing wide open hockey

Kessel playing almost 20 mins, 4 shots but even plus minus. were the shots typical outside ones? is he playing any different?

Leafs looked like a middleweight fighting a heavyweight, Leafs getting in equal shots, but power wasn't there.

 

[Trapper]

Ducks lost 3 of the first 14 games Post-Carlyle too. But when the players got fully adjusted, and the offensive game, they took off.

The system is night and day. So much better.
Now it's all on the players. Can they maintain it and persevere? Are they lazy and do they not want to engage. You might have them in position but you still have to work. Not just stand in your proper position.
This is the 2nd half evaluation.
The core.