What do the Oilers give us for MAF?

[radapex]

http://dkonpittsburghsports.com/2015/04/10/friday-insider-penguins-core-wont-be-touched/

In my extensive face-to-face interview with Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle last May at Consol, an extraordinary session not only for the access to two private men but also for their candor, the franchise’s co-owners stressed one point above all: They believe in the team’s two superstars.

As Burkle told me that day, “We wake up every day with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. So we wake up in a pretty good place.”


And this, too: “We don’t want to wait five years. I’ve got Crosby now. I’ve got Malkin now. I don’t think a five-year plan makes sense.”

Lemieux and Burkle believe in the entire core, actually, including Kris Letang and Marc-Andre Fleury, as they’ve demonstrated most powerfully by investing roughly $300 million in that quartet with extensions signed over the past three years.

And all that’s changed in the interim?

Crosby is in line for another scoring title, Malkin has been terrific when healthy, Letang is in the running for the Norris Trophy, Fleury is in the running for the Vezina and, if anything, the Penguins’ most valuable players look more valuable than ever.

Nothing about the stances of Lemieux and/or Burkle has changed in this regard, I was assured yesterday in no uncertain terms through one well-placed phone call and another very well-placed email. Nothing has changed with the ownership view at all. Not about Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Fleury. As I was further told, the subject has never even come up.

So start any post mortem for the 2014-15 Penguins in the proper context: Change could come, but it will not involve any of the core four.

TLDR; Burkle & Lemieux define their core as Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fleury and say that they're essentially untouchable.

I know the OP was a hypothetical. It just seems like a time waster to hypothesize about something that almost certainly won't happen.

 

[Deutschland Dangler]

It's nice of the lot of you to address the situation using careful, reasoned statistics as opposed to "MAF? Blergh, I hate that Frenchy!" mouthfrothing, despite him being, as a few have mentioned, one of the few bright spots on this season.

I'm not sure who you're addressing but since you quoted someone that basically just agreed with my statement, I'm assuming you also mean me.
First of all, I never said I hate MAF or anything about French Canadians. Second of all I'm not disputing that he was one of the bright spots this season, although I think it's a little overblown. Third, I didn't even say that we need to trade him anytime soon. I just think that this is another Kunitz-esque situation waiting to happen here and I'm worried that he'll have to leave voluntarily in order for someone else to get a chance.
And finally, I'm not sure if statistics are the way to go if you want to defend MAF.

 

[Til the End of Time]

there is no way fleury's on-ice accomplishments warrant unwavering support.

the fact that management/ownership believes so strongly in him speaks more to their fondness of him as a person and this organization's propensity to value familiarity over merit, rather than him actually being some great goalie.

he delivered several years of some of the worst postseasons of all-time followed by one fairly decent postseason, and is then rewarded with a rich contract and unwavering loyalty to him as the starter.

this organization's consistent allegiance to fleury embodies everything that is wrong with the pittsburgh penguins. no other organization would have stuck with fleury for this long. based on his on-ice contributions, he should have been gone years ago.

the only way this sinking ship organization can be fixed is by making decisions based on merit, rather than croneyism. and that starts with jettisoning sacred cows that everyone loves like fleury.

 

[Guins71]

I love how Fleury has played this year and think he has been the brightest spot on the team. That being said, those that think that he wasn't a major part of the past playoff failures and this absolves him of them are wrong. I still think a few of the past playoff failures had a great deal with Fleury not being the calming presence in net that the team needed and the team panicked around him. I think the Montreal series the year after the cup was one of the most frustrating.

Halak would make amazing save after save at one end of the ice and Fleury would wilt on one of Montreal's few chances.

The Philly series was a complete Fleury disaster, as he let goals in about every way imaginable

The Islander series was nearly as bad until he was relieved.

He has regained my confidence this year and somewhat last year(Blue Jacket Series and a few bad goals in the Rangers series aside)

 

[Human]

Fleury will play out at least this current contract here as the undisputed number one, no matter who is the backup or how he's playing. This organization would never dare to hurt his feelings.

and he's good in the room, so they wouldn't hurt this entire team's feelings...

 

[JQR]

http://dkonpittsburghsports.com/2015/04/10/friday-insider-penguins-core-wont-be-touched/



TLDR; Burkle & Lemieux define their core as Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Fleury and say that they're essentially untouchable.

I know the OP was a hypothetical. It just seems like a time waster to hypothesize about something that almost certainly won't happen.

Well, yeah, I mean I can only speculate about tomorrow's game so much before my brain wanders to things like "under what circumstances would Fleury leave town?" The answer (in reality) is that there are very few situations where that would happen. I looked at EDM simply because of their stacked roster of young potential stars, and the HUGE need for a goalie and some vet presence... though as others have mentioned, Fleury would never go to EDM. The potential trade value is interesting though, as one of the other posters pointed out that they would basically have to clean house in order to be able to afford his "real" value (after accounting for just how much he would improve their team, an even trade would have to improve the Pens just as much).

The only real way I could see Fleury moving is something akin to a Dipietro-caliber injury, and even he'd probably just sit on LTIR and wave to the fans.

 

[duffy9748]

Not quite sure why MAF would want to play there, he does have a NTC/NMC does he not?

I am almost certain he would not want to play there. Unless they hovered at 9th next year and that scenario happened where he wanted out and the Oilers weren't on his no-go list, I would want a 1st, prospect, and more.

Fleury, haters be damned, is a top 5 goalie in this league. I've seen teams give up more for guys older.

I'd want Yakupov, Oilers 2nd in 2016 and a prospect.

In no way is Fleury a top 5 goalie in 2015.

 

[Mordax]

Why would we trade the one bright spot on a team of deep dark clouds?

Makes zero sense. Even in an alternate reality.

This is all I've been wondering this entire thread... MAF has been the only guy to consistently perform at a high level all season. Really hoping he can keep that going into the playoffs (though he has his work cut of for him since the rest of the team is a steaming pile right now...)

 

[nbonaddio]

And finally, I'm not sure if statistics are the way to go if you want to defend MAF.

What other way is there?

I've cited analytics that professional teams use to perform this exact task; those analytics are the only pure rational way to think. Everything else is biased on way or another by emotional and personal feelings about MAF, including the positive ones from Lemieux and crew.

Positional scarcity dictates a premium on goaltending. His VORP in additional to that scarcity dictates a very large return price, and the difference in marginal utility between MAF-Scrivens and Eberle-Replacement Skater reinforces it.

It's incredibly ironic that people who are ostensibly so concerned about MAF's feelings judge his performance and value using nothing but.

 

[Til the End of Time]

What other way is there?

I've cited analytics that professional teams use to perform this exact task; those analytics are the only pure rational way to think. Everything else is biased on way or another by emotional and personal feelings about MAF, including the positive ones from Lemieux and crew.

Positional scarcity dictates a premium on goaltending. His VORP in additional to that scarcity dictates a very large return price, and the difference in marginal utility between MAF-Scrivens and Eberle-Replacement Skater reinforces it.

Or does that not have enough feelings for you?

can you provide these said stats? do they include playoffs?

 

[radapex]

Well, yeah, I mean I can only speculate about tomorrow's game so much before my brain wanders to things like "under what circumstances would Fleury leave town?" The answer (in reality) is that there are very few situations where that would happen. I looked at EDM simply because of their stacked roster of young potential stars, and the HUGE need for a goalie and some vet presence... though as others have mentioned, Fleury would never go to EDM. The potential trade value is interesting though, as one of the other posters pointed out that they would basically have to clean house in order to be able to afford his "real" value (after accounting for just how much he would improve their team, an even trade would have to improve the Pens just as much).

The only real way I could see Fleury moving is something akin to a Dipietro-caliber injury, and even he'd probably just sit on LTIR and wave to the fans.

Fleury's contract is pretty mutually beneficial. He and his family love it in Pittsburgh, so he gets to stick around, and the Pens get some fairly reliable goaltending for 4 more season while they give Murray and Jarry time to develop and mature in a more proper fashion. I would, however, maybe like to see the AAV a bit lower, not because I think it's too high for Fleury but because the Pens need every cent of cap space they can get.

 

[cassius]

the delivered several years of some of the worst postseasons of all-time followed by one fairly decent postseason, and is then rewarded with a rich contract and unwavering loyalty to him as the starter.

yep.. nothing underscores how badly screwed up this organization quite like the Fleury situation.

statistically, he was one of the worst post-season goalies from 2010-2014.. and he gets rewarded with a rich extension.

Lemieux and him are bros though, so that's why.

When you have unwavering strength in a guy who has failed for literally half a decade straight, you're probably insane.

 

[Deutschland Dangler]

What other way is there?

I've cited analytics that professional teams use to perform this exact task; those analytics are the only pure rational way to think. Everything else is biased on way or another by emotional and personal feelings about MAF, including the positive ones from Lemieux and crew.

Positional scarcity dictates a premium on goaltending. His VORP in additional to that scarcity dictates a very large return price, and the difference in marginal utility between MAF-Scrivens and Eberle-Replacement Skater reinforces it.

It's incredibly ironic that people who are ostensibly so concerned about MAF's feelings judge his performance and value using nothing but.

You have done no such thing. You posted arbitrary numbers and gave zero insight into how you came up with them.
His regular season numbers are consistently average, his playoff numbers among the worst of the worst when comparing them to goaltenders that have consistently been starting in playoff games.

 

[cassius]

A statistics company - MiniTab - who makes the Excel of statistical software did a case study on Fleury a few years back.. here's what they found.

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/the-curious-statistical-case-of-marc-andre-fleury

 

[Penguinator]

Bewteen?
ONE season?

Bravo cassios!

 

[cassius]

Screw unbiased data. I like staying away from reality as much as possible

 

[billybudd]

A statistics company - MiniTab - who makes the Excel of statistical software did a case study on Fleury a few years back.. here's what they found.

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/the-curious-statistical-case-of-marc-andre-fleury

I'm not a big believer in Fleury, but minitab's business model is a con, this isn't meaningful analysis and the sample size is too small.

 

[JQR]

I'm not a big believer in Fleury, but minitab's business model is a con, this isn't meaningful analysis and the sample size is too small.

And they misspelled "between."

 

[Human]

Bewteen?
ONE season?

Bravo cassios!

yeah, how come they wouldn't use all his other Conn Smythe/Vezina worthy seasons?

 

[cassius]

I'm not a big believer in Fleury, but minitab's business model is a con, this isn't meaningful analysis and the sample size is too small.

So 20+ years of goaltending data is a "small" sample? Okay. Are you serious? Can I have whatever you're on too?

This makes sense, since in the long run you would expect goalies to play about the same between the regular season and the playoffs. But let’s get to the outliers! Again, I’ve marked Fleury’s performance from 2011-12 with the black triangle. But here it’s much easier to see who has performed worse. However, there are only 7 other goalies who have a worse differential!

So out of 542 goaltenders, Fleury's performance against the Flyers was the 7th worst - in terms of the drop from regular season sv% to post-season sv%.

That's the bottom 1.2% of all goaltenders since 1982. Statistically, one of the worst performances ever.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Why isn't this locked lol

 

[Penguinator]

Why isn't this locked lol

Maybe some troll ate the key?

 

[billybudd]

So 20+ years of goaltending data is a "small" sample? Okay. Are you serious? Can I have whatever you're on too?



So out of 542 goaltenders, Fleury's performance against the Flyers was the 7th worst - in terms of the drop from regular season sv% to post-season sv%.

That's the bottom 1.2% of all goaltenders since 1982. Statistically, one of the worst performances ever.

Brodeur had a year just like that in 1999. A 6 game sample is meaningless.

And I'll reiterate that minitab is not a statistical analysis company, let alone a sport statistical analysis company. They're a marketing company that literally sells snake oil for Rolex prices. Except their Rolexes come with an attached bi-annual fee, hundreds of times more expensive than watch would be worth new, or else it stops working.

Anyroad, Minitab's hockey "analysis" is quite a bit less valuable than Paul Steigerwald's. Both are con artists. Only one has a hockey background.

 

[Til the End of Time]

hockey-reference has some interesting tools to look at some basic stats.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...l=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=save_pct

using this, you can see the playoff stats for all goalies that have played more than ten games since 2009 when the penguins won the cup.

if i am using the site correctly and if my link works, you can see that fleury's save percentage ranks 25th out of 28 goalies, at 0.891. his GAA ranks also ranks 25th out of 28, at 2.94.

i very well might be looking at this data incorrectly, as i just found this site, but if my interpretation is correct, that is pretty damning. a guy with such numbers should not be considering an indispensable part of the corp. in fact, he should be considered one of the first players to be shipped out if the primary goal is winning the cup.

 

[Penguinator]

Why does it stink all of a sudden?