What do the Oilers give us for MAF?

[JQR]

In this alternate reality, Murray is playing 2nd goalie in 2015-16. But he has basically split time with MAF almost evenly and is performing superior to Fleury. Fleury isn't playing terrible, but not great. He is playing at average Fleury levels. But that's still far better than what Edmonton has (we're also assuming they haven't been able to address their goalie situation).

So what do we get for Fleury at the trade deadline in 2016? Does EDM want one of Kunitz or Martin in a package deal (assuming we still have both and they're looking for more vets)?

Click to read more...

 

[PensFanSince1989]

What do we give the Blackhawks for Toews. In this alternate reality, Toews is fed up playing second fiddle to Kane, and demands to be traded at the 2016 trade deadline and says he'll only waive his NMC for Pittsburgh. What do we give up?

 

[PensFanSince1989]

What do the Habs give us for Malkin? In this alternate reality, Beau Bennett has switched to centre and become the second best player in the NHL, only behind Crosby. Malkin isn't playing bad, he's just become expendable.

What do the Habs give us for Malkin? Will they also take Rob Scuderi and Pascal Dupuis in a package deal?

 

[JQR]

What do we give the Blackhawks for Toews. In this alternate reality, Toews is fed up playing second fiddle to Kane, and demands to be traded at the 2016 trade deadline and says he'll only waive his NMC for Pittsburgh. What do we give up?

What do the Habs give us for Malkin? In this alternate reality, Beau Bennett has switched to centre and become the second best player in the NHL, only behind Crosby. Malkin isn't playing bad, he's just become expendable.

What do the Habs give us for Malkin? Will they also take Rob Scuderi and Pascal Dupuis in a package deal?

I fully pick up on your sarcasm here, and really it's hillarious. But are you really suggesting that moving Fleury is somehow comparable to moving Toews or Malkin?

It's a hypothetical scenario. No need to be a complete ****** about it, I'm not trying to interrupt your pillow-talk with Fleury.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Not quite sure why MAF would want to play there, he does have a NTC/NMC does he not?

I am almost certain he would not want to play there. Unless they hovered at 9th next year and that scenario happened where he wanted out and the Oilers weren't on his no-go list, I would want a 1st, prospect, and more.

Fleury, haters be damned, is a top 5 goalie in this league. I've seen teams give up more for guys older.

I'd want Yakupov, Oilers 2nd in 2016 and a prospect.

 

[JQR]

Yeah, that NTC... that's gotta be awkward. So he submits a list of 12 teams that he cant't be traded to every year. I'm sure that's all handled by agents or lawyers or some intermediary, but I just imagine Fleury walking into the front office like, "Heheh, ok... here's my list... ehhh... don't trade me!! Heh... Heh..." with like a really nervous / awkward grin.

 

[billybudd]

No point in wondering about this. We married MAF for the next five years.

Murray could pitch 20 shutouts as a backup next season and he wouldn't steal the job.

 

[PensFanSince1989]

I fully pick up on your sarcasm here, and really it's hillarious. But are you really suggesting that moving Fleury is somehow comparable to moving Toews or Malkin?

It's a hypothetical scenario. No need to be a complete ****** about it, I'm not trying to interrupt your pillow-talk with Fleury.

O.K.

Edmonton gives us Hall, Yakupov, Nugent Hopkins, Eberle and their newly drafted Connor McDavid. They also eat half their salary.

I played along.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Yeah, that NTC... that's gotta be awkward. So he submits a list of 12 teams that he cant't be traded to every year. I'm sure that's all handled by agents or lawyers or some intermediary, but I just imagine Fleury walking into the front office like, "Heheh, ok... here's my list... ehhh... don't trade me!! Heh... Heh..." with like a really nervous / awkward grin.

MAF - "Ello Monsieur Ruth-air-furd...I like to put dese twelve teams down as je n'aime pas jouer, ca va?"
JR - "Tell me real quick while I grab my bifocals and magnifying glass"..
MAF - "Edmonton, Philadelphia, Winnipeg, Toronto, Pittsburgh..."
JR - "Wait a second Marc..."

 

[Honour Over Glory]

O.K.

Edmonton gives us Hall, Yakupov, Nugent Hopkins, Eberle and their newly drafted Connor McDavid. They also eat half their salary.

I played along.

Brah...that's just...

 

[Shady Machine]

I see this thread ending well. It would have to be Eberle or Yak+

 

[Crosberry87]

Some of (actually most of) the posters on this website are entirely too serious and caught up in their own ego. The op even tried to preface his proposal with his "in an alternate reality" statement as to acknowledge the fact that this is very unlikely to happen and to avoid all the sarcastic and overly serious "this would never happen so let's not even bother discussing it" responses. Yet, as per the usual, it happened.

Eberle straight up or Yakupov + or Nurse +

But it would never happen

 

[Rico Fatastic]

So Eberle or Yakupov+ is the going rate for an average veteran starting goalie with serious questions regarding his ability to perform in the playoffs? He definitely has positive value, so long as he looks half competent over the next 4 or 5 games against the Rangers, but there's not a chance in hell he's going to return a guy like Eberle.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

So Eberle or Yakupov+ is the going rate for an average veteran starting goalie with serious questions regarding his ability to perform in the playoffs? He definitely has positive value, so long as he looks half competent over the next 4 or 5 games against the Rangers, but there's not a chance in hell he's going to return a guy like Eberle.

Oh you, stop it with the terrible analysis and stuffs.

 

[nbonaddio]

Oh you, stop it with the terrible analysis and stuffs.

But he's a superstar!

Even if someone doesn't agree that MAF is a top-tier goaltender, you have to factor the positional scarcity. Consistent franchise goaltenders simply don't become available all that often, so any team in the market will have to overpay on the most optimistic market value.

From a player value perspective, I'm a big fan of using VORP-ish statistics, ones that look at a player in relation to his value above replacement-level talent. It just so happens that I run a sports analytics company, and we have MAF as an opponent-adjusted +7.12 and Eberle as a +5.31.

Of course, that's actually only part of the story, as the delta between MAF and Scrivens (-1.91) is much, much higher than the delta between Eberle and the next positional skater/available talent on waivers or elsewhere. This basically means that the marginal utility increase that Edmonton would gain in such a deal makes the deal essentially untenable, because making it "fair" from a utility perspective would basically gut the Oilers roster.

tl;dr: The cost is much higher than you would think, which makes it prohibitive to Edmonton even if we were in fact living inside of this fantasy world where MAF's trade clause allowed him to be traded to the frozen version of Hell.

 

[Soundwave]

Probably not a lot honestly.

The Oilers will likely go after Cam Ward as a cap dump since he's a local kid or someone like Craig Anderson who's been usurped by Hamburglar and Ottawa likely doesn't want to pay that kind of coin for a back up.

It's sort of a moot discussion though because MAF would not waive his NTC for Edmonton. He'd also be a complete disaster behind the Oilers blue line.

Eberle or someone like that isn't happening. He's the leading point scorer for the Oilers.

From Edmonton's POV when you can get a Craig Anderson for maybe a 2nd or at tops the 1st they got from you guys ... why trade a Yakupov for a Fleury?

 

[WayneSid9987]

The Miller trade is probably a good comparison:

The St. Louis Blues on Friday acquired goaltender Ryan Miller and forward Steve Ott from the Buffalo Sabres in a trade for goaltender Jaroslav Halak, forward Chris Stewart, forward prospect William Carrier, a first-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, and a conditional draft pick.

Take out Ott's worth of course and Miller was probably worth a smidge more than MAF at the time.
Also keep in mind STL was going for it/all in and overpaid a tad.

 

[FRUSTRATEDPENFAN*]

No point in wondering about this. We married MAF for the next five years.

Murray could pitch 20 shutouts as a backup next season and he wouldn't steal the job.

Well that's untrue if Murray were to make the Penguins next season and prove to be better than Fleury he could very easily steal the job. Fleury may have a no trade clause but he isn't promised playing time if he was forced into the back up role he would welcome a trade.

 

[SEALBound]

Why would we trade the one bright spot on a team of deep dark clouds?

Makes zero sense. Even in an alternate reality.

 

[Shady Machine]

Well that's untrue if Murray were to make the Penguins next season and prove to be better than Fleury he could very easily steal the job. Fleury may have a no trade clause but he isn't promised playing time if he was forced into the back up role he would welcome a trade.

That's not going to happen. No matter how good Murray looks in camp, he's not going to win the job from Fleury. They aren't going to rush him to the NHL and risk hurting his development, like they did with Fleury, when they already have an average to above average starter (depending on which Fleury shows up). The only way that is remotely possible is if Fleury puts in literally the worst playoff performance of all time. And even then, I'd bet money on it not happening.

 

[Deutschland Dangler]

Fleury will play out at least this current contract here as the undisputed number one, no matter who is the backup or how he's playing. This organization would never dare to hurt his feelings.

 

[cassius]

Fleury will play out at least this current contract here as the undisputed number one, no matter who is the backup or how he's playing. This organization would never dare to hurt his feelings.

This

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Why would we wait until the trade deadline? Moves are needed THIS summer, not down the road. Why wait until Fleury regresses? That would be another point.

As we all know too well, the Oil have TWO first rounders in this year's draft. Depending on how the lottery shakes down, I'd be interested in dangling Fleury to them this off-season and see what they'd be willing to part with.

Yes Fleury responded this season with a much stronger year. Yes he's not a 'problem', per se. Yes he didn't completely implode last year, and we assume he won't this year either.

BUT, we have also been playing WAY more defensive this season under Johnston. And it's gotten us absolutely nowhere. In fact, we're worse now than under Bylsma. Meanwhile, Fleury has restored his value.

In an ALTERNATE universe, the Penguins actually turn into SMART traders...moving assets when they're at PEAK value, instead of...well, instead of the Simon Despres deal.

If we're NOT going to win the Stanley Cup anyway in 2015-16, and we won't, then we can go with, say, a platoon in goal of Antti Niemi and a guy flying under the radar (like KHL star Vasily Koshechkin) for a year or two until Murray and Jarry finish their battle royal down on the farm.

Just one man's opinion.

 

[nbonaddio]

This

It's nice of the lot of you to address the situation using careful, reasoned statistics as opposed to "MAF? Blergh, I hate that Frenchy!" mouthfrothing, despite him being, as a few have mentioned, one of the few bright spots on this season.

 

[cassius]

It's nice of the lot of you to address the situation using careful, reasoned statistics as opposed to "MAF? Blergh, I hate that Frenchy!" mouthfrothing, despite him being, as a few have mentioned, one of the few bright spots on this season.

last time i checked, 1 regular season doesn't trump a 5 year run of mindboggling playoff failure.

around these parts though? it does. so that's cool.