What do the Oilers give us for MAF?

[plaidchuck]

For the record they made the moves they wanted to and played vokoun in 2013 and still sucked. Without him they probably would beat the flyers in.2012 but no one else. Fleury is one of many problems with the team.

 

[Rico Fatastic]

I get defensive for the same reason I get angry when Buzzfeed raises $250M of venture capital.

Okay, so, the pedantics:

One of the biggest problems with using basic statistics like GAA and save percentage is that not all shots are created equal; that much should be obvious. So what to do? Well, if you are tapped into the correct sources, many of the data providers that provide raw material to companies like mine will give you shot information with information such as x,y coordinates, so you'd be able to differentiate a shot in the slot from one from the red line.

Now!

Let's imagine you've got a database of tens of millions of shots, and the result. You'd know for example that shot from the right-wing faceoff circle has about a 12% success rate whereas one from the blue line, dead-center has about a 1.5% success rate. Once you have that, you can compare a goaltender's performance against what he was supposed to do, or rather what historical precedent sets as the baseline.

Give up a goal on a 2% shot? Well guess what, you just earned a -0.98! Stop a break away? Enjoy your +0.44!

Take those metrics, and accrue them over any period of time you want. In this case, we're using a season, where MAF scored a +14.17 in sum.

Things like opponent adjustments are more cut and dry, since playing Buffalo 82 times would yield a different result than playing a varied schedule. Using similar methodologies to the one I outlayed above (goals that should have been but weren't, etc.), teams then become a summation of the advanced statistics of the individual players playing in the game. Without Crosby, for example, we become 11% easier to beat. Some teams play tougher schedules than others, so you have to then adjust all of the players to a common baseline such that you can compare them apples to apples.

Those adjustments (and you can even go further - adjust for pace, since not every team plays at the same speed if you choose!) adjust MAF to a +12.21 goals-saved, which translates into an addition of +7.11 wins, good for third in the league.

And like I said, given the positional scarcity, and certainly given the higher variance of VORP year-over-year at the position (and thus, giving even more value to consistency and finding a "franchise" goaltender), MAF is more valuable on the open market than a majority of you seem to think.

I of course understand when you're coming from, but I strongly disagree with your "rationale", as humans with biases attending to incomplete information tend to draw out in me.

In addition to what others have brought up, I'd be interested to know if your metric takes into account how often Fleury's poor rebound control and puckhandling leads to good scoring chances against.

 

[lastcupever75]

For the record they made the moves they wanted to and played vokoun in 2013 and still sucked. Without him they probably would beat the flyers in.2012 but no one else. Fleury is one of many problems with the team.

paying $5M for a goalie on the bench doesnt make a difference in setting up the roster??

thats $5M wasted dollars they could have used on the rest of the team

 

[plaidchuck]

paying $5M for a goalie on the bench doesnt make a difference in setting up the roster??

thats $5M wasted dollars they could have used on the rest of the team

No cap in the playoffs! Also you're implying not spending any money on.a.goalie? Sorry, vokoun was too old to handle a full season. I guess you're one of those that thinks greiss is good..

 

[Human]

No cap in the playoffs! Also you're implying not spending any money on.a.goalie? Sorry, vokoun was too old to handle a full season. I guess you're one of those that thinks greiss is good..

did you really bring up that argument? really?

 

[Human]

In addition to what others have brought up, I'd be interested to know if your metric takes into account how often Fleury's poor rebound control and puckhandling leads to good scoring chances against.

watch some games, hell, go on YT and watch some of the goals the Flyers and the Isles have scored on him. you don't need metrics for that...

 

[lastcupever75]

watch some games, hell, go on YT and watch some of the goals the Flyers and the Isles have scored on him. you don't need metrics for that...

some will never get it. what the hell did "no cap" in the playoffs even mean. lol
errr, no kidding

 

[lastcupever75]

watch some games, hell, go on YT and watch some of the goals the Flyers and the Isles have scored on him. you don't need metrics for that...

those dont matter
the past means nothing. lol