What changed from earlier into the season?

[GoodKiwi]

Hi,

Before I begin, I wanted to say that there's no malicious intent in my post and that I like your team. I ask the question(s) I do because I feel like Colorado has been one of the more interesting cases this season.

I don't watch many Western games, and this is something that's been on my mind scoreboard watching for the last few weeks. What surprised me about your team early on was how few goals they allowed per game. How did that happen? Again, I mean no disrespect, but D doesn't look as good as those goals allowed stats did. What was the key to your success defensively?

By the way, 14-2-0 record was also eye-popping.

So what has been different lately? I believe the team has been around .500 for the last month or so. Can you guys please clue me in as to why there's been such a discrepancy?


Thank you very much in advance.

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[The Shermanator]

Steve Downie.

 

[slappipappi]

Early on the Rockies were achieving an exceptional amount of random luck luck which has normalized.

 

[tigervixxxen]

No team is going to continue on at a 14-2 pace so you could make this thread on anyone's board.

Second, look at the schedule. The Avs just completed a 8-4 road-home stretch against all western teams.

I don't really know what answer you want. For us to admit that we were lucky? Not going to happen. It is a team that recently pulled itself out of the depths of despair, they are not going to perform like the Blackhawks instantly.

 

[AvsRobin]

We were very lucky in the beginning I'd say. Many were playing on top of their game. 14-2 with the defenseman core we have? Out of this world.

But, over an 82 game season, we should get the "real" result of how good this team is. And that is in my opinion, slightly better than a .500 team.

 

[PeterTheGreat]

Biggest single factor is goaltending has dipped. They are both still playing good for the most part, but they were other worldly at the very beginning.

Second thing is the regression of Sarich, Guenin and Benoit to some extent.

Lastly the Alex Tanguay injury makes a HUGE difference that not many people realize.

 

[Foppa2118]

A culmination of things I'd say.

Roy's style was very different offensively and defensively than before and it. Took a while to figure out its weaknesses.

Goaltending was playing out of its mind.

The D was playing way over its head. Now certain guys playing to prove themselves aren't playing at the same level, and other teams have a better idea of their weakness to the cycle game and crashing the net with heavy bodies and traffic.

A bit of bad luck and variance counter acting the early good fortune and balancing things out.

A bit too light and soft up front. They can't play a heavy game and drive the net for rebounds and cause havoc and traffic so when they get shut down playing their style they cant find the back of the net. This will be a big problem in the playoffs.

Special teams is killing them most games. The PP is brutal and the PK has fallen off a cliff for some reason.

Most of these problems can be resolved by bringing in a legit #2 or #3 two way d man or preferably two in the long run. But they also need to get heavier up front to balance their attack style and be more multi dimensional.

The other things they need are to practice the hell out of special teams and get better at them and have Varly go back to making one or two more BIG saves a game at the key breakdown moments.

Roy and his system aren't the problems, they just aren't enough to make up for the teams weaknesses over the long haul.

 

[Bonzai12]

^^^ what foppa said.

 

[Avelanche]

New coach high faded and it isn't fanboy delusion this year, the east sucks and the west is stacked. Really need to win these softballs coming up against Philly, Columbus, new york, Ottowa, etc. Avs can loose 3 in a row to stacked teams but it's a problem when they're loosing to the Islanders and Senators. Getting two points out of LA, Chicago, and SJ on the road is pretty good imo.

 

[Pokecheque]

Pretty much what everyone else has said. I'd add (if it hasn't been added already) that the Tanguay injury has really thrown the forward mix for a loop. It's preventing Roy from icing three lines that can score, and it's also putting John Mitchell a bit too high on the depth chart. I like the guy, but we need a better 3rd line center when the time comes to be a contender.

 

[Freudian]

Avs had the highest save percentage, highest PK percentage and top three PP percentage for the first months. It was never going to last.

Avs haven't been performing as well in the SO as they normally do. They shouldn't be a 1-3 team with the shooters they have and Varlamov.

Avs have had a tough schedule the first half, where their opponents have had higher than league average P% by a lot. Hopefully the easier schedule for the second half will lead to them keep getting points.

Realistically Avs are a team between 7th-10th in the West. They were before the season started and they are now. Nothing has changed. Avs are better than expected, but so are the top ten teams in the conference.

 

[Mant*]

The quality of opponents.

 

[AvsRobin]

Biggest single factor is goaltending has dipped. They are both still playing good for the most part, but they were other worldly at the very beginning.

Second thing is the regression of Sarich, Guenin and Benoit to some extent.

Lastly the Alex Tanguay injury makes a HUGE difference that not many people realize.

Tanguay did play when everyone was great. If he was still around, he most likely would have dipped like the rest. And I dont really think Alex was that good when he played either. But after the Downie trade we lack two top 9 forwards now without Downie and Tanguay.

 

[BoxOfChocolates]

Everything.

 

[Drury_Sakic]

Others have mentioned it, but the three biggest factors are goaltending, Downie, and Tanguay in that order.

Goaltending was amazing during the first 2 months. It has been good and bad in December, a mixed bag. The Varlamov legal situation clearly had an impact on his game and I think both goalies have felt the impact of Allaire (the goalie coach) taking the month of December off. It was a bit of an oddity of his contract that Allaire was allowed to leave the team for 6-8 weeks. I think he will be back in mid January full time again.

Trading for Tablot was not a bad move, however trading Downie in that deal was. Downie provided fire to the top 3 lines and created space for O'Reilly and Duchene on the top line. Every winning team needs a guy like Downie, and in the short term it was a stupid thing to do. That said, there were rumblings that Lando and Downie did not get along. Downie also is probably due for a hefty raise over the summer and will likely be one of those guys who gets a big deal and never lives up to it. No one else on the Avs roster plays with an edge. McLeod will fight anyone, but I would not exactly call him a grinder/pest. Same goes for Bords.

Tanguay's injury also hurt the team in several areas. The Lando-Stastny-Tanguay line was a perfect fit. Alex provided a steady hand to a line that had two other players who seem to lack confidence at times. Stastny has always had trouble finding linemates that work, and PAP is showing to be a bit of a fish out of water on the line. Tanguay was also a huge factor on the 1st PP, he quarterbacked it. His injury, along with trading Downie, also bumped Mac and PAP up to the top two lines and Mitchell off the 4th line.

McGinn-Mac-PAP
McLeod-Mitchell-Bords

is a much more talented bottom two lines than

McGinn-Mitchell-Talbot
McLeod-Cliché-Bords.

Each of the clubs 4 lines gave something different prior to the Downie trade and the Tanguay injury. The Duchene line was an unrelenting force with O'Reilly-Duchene-Downie going full tilt. The Stastny line slowed the game down and made the game look simple. The Mac line was full of energy and flow and the Mitchell line brought some sandpaper and bursts of energy with some scoring threat.

Avs SHOULD have given up a 1st or 2nd to get Talbot and replaced Bords in the lineup and kept Downie...

 

[Drury_Sakic]

I really think it is time to give one or maybe even two of the AHL scoring wingers a call up and see what they can do. I would love to see these lines tried.

Lando-Stastny-Hishon/Olver/Sgarbossa
O'Reilly-Duchene-Malone
McGinn-Mac-PAP
McLeod-Mitchell-Talbot

Malone is the closest player the Avs have to Downie in the system. His years at UND showed he can play with talent and he has scored at a decent clip in the AHL, but he has yet to really be given a chance to prove it at the NHL level, often being put into 4th line or bench duty. Malone can be a feisty beast if he is allowed to be one, but the Avs seem to want to keep him in a cage for some reason...so for this to work, he needs to be told to frankly respect other players less. In college, Malone was one of those guys who played just on the edge of dirty, and he needs to figure out how to bring that to the NHL.

The Stastny line needs someone creative to make things go. Take your pick between the 3 smallish guys.

For the 3rd line, spread the wealth back out and put Mac back on the 3rd line with some talent, force teams to pick which of the top 3 lines to not match up against.

And for the 4th line, as much as Bords and Cliché have been decent this year, the 4th line has not been cutting it. Put more talent on the line and make it a line teams have to worry about it again.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Over the last 7 games Varly has 2.48 GAA and 9.28 save % and that doesn't include his scoreless period last night, goaltending isn't going to get much better than that.

Yes let's put MacKinnon back on the third line seeing 14 minutes a night but please let's promote someone from the AHL to the top line.

 

[Taak19]

Catching teams by surprise. Now they expect it.

Tanguay's injury.

Giguere getting back to his old ways.

The PP SUCKS.



One thing I have noticed - and have been bothered by is how when the Avs have a team pinned down low for a shift or two and the other team finally gets possession the Avs go off for a line change. If the Avs are pinned and they get possession it's like it is their sole mission to get the puck to the red line and dump it and go for a change. Good teams keep possession while their D changes first and they usually get a scoring chance. I've seen it against teams like the Hawks, Sharks, Kings, Bruins, Wings and a few others this year.

 

[PAZ]

Roy got a haircut.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

We started the season with 3 scoring lines who all played well in their own end to help out our really bad defenseman.
Now due to an injury and Downie being moved for Talbot, we're down to two scoring lines who play decent D.

Also teams have realized when they work the puck down low on our defenseman they will be in trouble.

 

[bohlmeister]

Tanguay's injury, in addition to the Downie trade, has turned our 3 line attack offense into a regular 2 line offense. Easier to match against.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Yes let's put MacKinnon back on the third line seeing 14 minutes a night but please let's promote someone from the AHL to the top line.

What makes you think he'd play only 14 minutes? In the last 18 games, Mitchell, the current 3rd line center, has only played less than 15 minutes in three games.

MacKinnon would still get plenty of playing time. At this point, it should be about putting him in the position he's most comfortable at. I think he's much better at center. He's an 18 year old rookie, it's not going to kill him to see his ice time cut back a bit. Frankly, he doesn't look ready to be the top line winger anyway.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Mitchell PKs and gets used in plenty of defensive situations. I'm looking more at McGinn's time.

I like MacKinnon better at center too but he's a top 6 player and he should be playing in the top 6.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Mitchell PKs and gets used in plenty of defensive situations. I'm looking more at McGinn's time.

MacKinnon would still get PP time, which McGinn doesn't and lately Mitchell hasn't, so it cancels out.

 

[the_fan]

Simply put, Avs don't have a 14-2 team. They flew higher than expected to begin the season under a new coach, healthy roster, and consistent play from everyone.

But i said this many times, the Avs players are still young and inconsistent to be able to keep that winning pace all season. The D needs massive upgrade soon. Stastny, ROR, Landeskog, PAP, all need to be a more consistent, because they are just too streaky.

Can't win in this league with only one or two players on roster playing consistent hockey.