HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[nhlfan9191]

You're just being negative. You should employ more of a 'glass half full mentality'.

We also have a 50% shot at the Stanley Cup. We either win - or we don't.

So 50% shot at Lafreniere + 50% shot at the Cup = 100% certainty we end up with at least one or the other.

Has nothing to do with negativity. You need to come down to earth. You were talking multiple 10 game winning streaks when we were a dumpster in 17/18 as well. Where’d that prediction get you? That’s called delusion.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I still don’t know what happens if and when there is no playin. Does anyone know the facts here? Everything I’ve read is about the playins happening. I don’t think it’s likely, so if I’m right, where does that leave us?

 

[bobholly39]

Has nothing to do with negativity. You need to come down to earth. You were talking multiple 10 game winning streaks when we were a dumpster in 17/18 as well. Where’d that prediction get you? That’s called delusion.

In february of this year i kept telling everyone here not to give up that we still had a shot at the playoffs and everyone called me delusional. Look where we are now - i was right!

Wrong in 2018, right in 2020. 50% odds.

 

[bobholly39]

I still don’t know what happens if and when there is no playin. Does anyone know the facts here? Everything I’ve read is about the playins happening. I don’t think it’s likely, so if I’m right, where does that leave us?

Teams 8 to 15 by points percentage go for draw 2 with an equal shot at Lafreniere (12.5% each).

Pretty sure this was confirmed by both Friedman and Bob McKenzie - not sure about an official announcement from nhl though.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Teams 8 to 15 by points percentage go for draw 2 with an equal shot at Lafreniere (12.5% each).

Pretty sure this was confirmed by both Friedman and Bob McKenzie - not sure about an official announcement from nhl though.

This doesn’t make a lot of sense imo. I’d have to see it for myself. I’ll see if I can find something.

 

[bobholly39]

This doesn’t make a lot of sense imo. I’d have to see it for myself. I’ll see if I can find something.

What doesn't make sense? It seems pretty straight forward. I don't know how to embed tweets, but if you go to Bob McKenzie's twitter and scroll down to June 26th he posted a few messages clarifying that. Here's one such quote:

"If the 2019-20 Return to Play does not occur for any reason, the teams with the 8th to 15th lowest points percentage at the pause would equal shots (12.5 per cent) at getting the No. 1 overall pick. Keep in mind, though, not all those teams may not own their first-round pick."

It's probably not 100% clear who teams ~14-15 and such are - I think teams like Calgary and Van and such were practically tied in the standings. But from the Habs perspective it's crystal clear. We're 8th and so we get a 12.5% chance at Lafreniere, if the play-ins don't happen.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

What doesn't make sense? It seems pretty straight forward. I don't know how to embed tweets, but if you go to Bob McKenzie's twitter and scroll down to June 26th he posted a few messages clarifying that. Here's one such quote:

"If the 2019-20 Return to Play does not occur for any reason, the teams with the 8th to 15th lowest points percentage at the pause would equal shots (12.5 per cent) at getting the No. 1 overall pick. Keep in mind, though, not all those teams may not own their first-round pick."

It's probably not 100% clear who teams ~14-15 and such are - I think teams like Calgary and Van and such were practically tied in the standings. But from the Habs perspective it's crystal clear. We're 8th and so we get a 12.5% chance at Lafreniere, if the play-ins don't happen.

Sure, it seems straight forward, but it seems like a kick in the face to teams 8-16 who aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot if playins do happen, but they also don’t get a shot at the pick if they don’t. I’m surprised this would be agreed upon.

 

[nhlfan9191]

In february of this year i kept telling everyone here not to give up that we still had a shot at the playoffs and everyone called me delusional. Look where we are now - i was right!

Wrong in 2018, right in 2020. 50% odds.

Everyone who was giving up should’ve given up. We were 6 feet under and as they were filling the hole, a once in a lifetime worldwide pandemic happened. You weren’t right about anything. You’re just as delusional as you were in 2018. And you’re not even trying to get the percentages right which tells me you’re not serious.

 

[OldCraig71]

If the NHL wants us to have him I would say that our mathematical odds are pretty good.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Sure, it seems straight forward, but it seems like a kick in the face to teams 8-16 who aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot if playins do happen, but they also don’t get a shot at the pick if they don’t. I’m surprised this would be agreed upon.

Teams 8-15 get an equal 12,5% shot each if there’s no playin. I’m sure Pittsburgh is pissed they have to risk losing to a bottom feeder like us, had to be some give and take to get agreements on the overall plan.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

If the NHL wants us to have him I would say that our mathematical odds are pretty good.

But if we win, the rest of the league will think the lottery is rigged. So, they have to rig it for us to not win him to preserve their integrity. Which means or odds are null!

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Teams 8-15 get an equal 12,5% shot each if there’s no playin. I’m sure Pittsburgh is pissed they have to risk losing to a bottom feeder like us, had to be some give and take to get agreements on the overall plan.

The risk to Pittsburgh is real. A 5 game series and luck is an even bigger factor in determining that series. If the season resumes, ie playin, the NHL determined the standings were incomplete and needed playins to decide the playoff picture, but if the season doesn't resume then everything stays as is based on the standings. This makes no sense at all imo, either the season standings are enough to determine your positioning or they are not.

I don't know why the NHL tried so hard to complicate this. We should know in 3 weeks or so if the season will resume, if so, why not just have the lottery done after the playins. What was the rush here? The optics of this whole thing look very amateurish.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

The risk to Pittsburgh is real. A 5 game series and luck is an even bigger factor in determining that series. If the season resumes, ie playin, the NHL determined the standings were incomplete and needed playins to decide the playoff picture, but if the season doesn't resume then everything stays as is based on the standings. This makes no sense at all imo, either the season standings are enough to determine your positioning or they are not.

I don't know why the NHL tried so hard to complicate this. We should know in 3 weeks or so if the season will resume, if so, why not just have the lottery done after the playins. What was the rush here? The optics of this whole thing look very amateurish.

The whole lottery set up this year is like a monkey trying to have sex with a football. NHL was trying to get some cheap ratings and just confused the shit out of everyone in the process. Based on the latest forecast the actual draft isn’t until mid-October so waiting til after the playin expected to be +/-August 10th would’ve been fine.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

The whole lottery set up this year is like a monkey trying to have sex with a football. NHL was trying to get some cheap ratings and just confused the shit out of everyone in the process. Based on the latest forecast the actual draft isn’t until mid-October so waiting til after the playin expected to be +/-August 10th would’ve been fine.

Agreed.

 

[OldCraig71]

But if we win, the rest of the league will think the lottery is rigged. So, they have to rig it for us to not win him to preserve their integrity. Which means or odds are null!

If we get him, it won’t matter to me what the rest of the league thinks. To hell with them.

 

[DAChampion]

But if we win, the rest of the league will think the lottery is rigged. So, they have to rig it for us to not win him to preserve their integrity. Which means or odds are null!

Are you going to tell Pittsburgh to give back their Stanley Cups? People thought that the Crosby draft was rigged. Their results are null.

 

[26Mats]

The dream scenario is that the NHL can't return to play and the original winner of the #1 overall pick gets the pick. We have a 25% chance of getting Lafreniere in that scenari . We had a 6% chance being seeded 8th. But the non 1 through 7 teams collectively had a 24% chance. 6/24 = 25%.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The dream scenario is that the NHL can't return to play and the original winner of the #1 overall pick gets the pick. We have a 25% chance of getting Lafreniere in that scenari . We had a 6% chance being seeded 8th. But the non 1 through 7 teams collectively had a 24% chance. 6/24 = 25%.

The league stated that if somehow the play-in round and the playoffs get cancelled, they'll have a 2nd lottery with the bottom 8 teams (in win%) of the 16 play-in teams, with the same equal odds.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Are you going to tell Pittsburgh to give back their Stanley Cups? People thought that the Crosby draft was rigged. Their results are null.

Did people think it was going to be rigged for Pittsburgh before the lottery at the time???

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't know that they rig it, but Crosby saved Pittsburgh exactly at the right time.

For sure... there are some results that do tend to make sense in terms of a star going to a certain team at the right time. Do they rig it all the time, sometimes, or just luck that it ends up that way? .

What we do know is Bettman is focused on parity and also increasing revenue. So you never know... Lafreniere in Montreal does make a lot of sense for a number of reasons

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Great to see he’s signed and is going to attend training camp. It’ll really help him going into the training camp for the 2020-2021 season (if it actually goes). He’ll really get to know his teammates, his coaches, what he needs to work on, and how to prepare from guys like Weber.

I think this will help his development, especially compared to the alternative which is sitting at home.

And the draft lottery is not rigged.

No one can state this or otherwise, with certainty.

We can only infer.

 

[CHfan1]

No one can state this or otherwise, with certainty.

We can only infer.

I’m a bit skeptical of the Crosby lottery but after that I don’t believe all the conspiracy theories that it’s rigged. There is too much scrutiny nowadays and the NHL would have too big of a scandal if it ever came out a lottery was rigged.

If the Habs get Lafrenière to add to it’s young core it’s because they got lucky.

I can’t be convinced otherwise unless someone has actual facts.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I’m a bit skeptical of the Crosby lottery but after that I don’t believe all the conspiracy theories that it’s rigged. There is too much scrutiny nowadays and the NHL would have too big of a scandal if it ever came out a lottery was rigged.

If the Habs get Lafrenière to add to it’s young core it’s because they got lucky.

I can’t be convinced otherwise unless someone has actual facts.

Same arguments were given about soccer's referees, until well, the rest was history.

 

[le_sean]

I’m a bit skeptical of the Crosby lottery but after that I don’t believe all the conspiracy theories that it’s rigged. There is too much scrutiny nowadays and the NHL would have too big of a scandal if it ever came out a lottery was rigged.

If the Habs get Lafrenière to add to it’s young core it’s because they got lucky.

I can’t be convinced otherwise unless someone has actual facts.

With the odds being the exact same for the 8 teams that miss the playoffs, they can do the draw live in front of a camera. If they do it behind closed doors like the rest of the lottery, I’ll be skeptical.

 

[Adam Michaels]

With the odds being the exact same for the 8 teams that miss the playoffs, they can do the draw live in front of a camera. If they do it behind closed doors like the rest of the lottery, I’ll be skeptical.

They do film the draft lottery. They release it after, but they film it.